Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

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Doc
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Doc »

There is one method of picking up weather if the local forecasts are not really up to your liking.
I've used this method MANY times.
It's not something that is as accurate as a trained observer, granted. But, it's a way to get fair to good weather reports.
It's a system we've used for years.
I can't believe nobody has suggested this method.
Reba McIntire even sings a song about it.

It's called the PHONE!!!!
Call the nursing station.
Call the Cop station.
Call the band office.
Call other operators in the area.
It's up to you to get the weather. Find a way........or STAY HOME.

Or, is this too simple?
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grimey
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by grimey »

flyinthebug wrote:
Kzanol wrote:deleted
Too bad "cowboy"... I was hoping to discuss what you had typed out! You seem to have all the answers (especially in regards to whats VFR and whats not) so I was hoping you could enlighten us more? After all, we are all looking at the same GFA arent we? Anyways, regardless of your piss poor attitude, im pleased to know you were smart enough to turn around when you hit the freezing rain.
The GFA in this thread was published a few hours after the accident. I think it's safe to assume that Kzanol had the 12z (and the previous 18z) GFAs, which may have shown different weather. However, based on what's in this thread, as has already been noted, if you back up the 18z GFA published around 1730z that I posted in this thread a couple hours, the mixed moderate icing and localized ifr cigs are right over the crash site. But god knows if that was aftercasting, or if it appeared on the 12 and 18z GFAs published around 12z.

And yea, what Doc said. The guy's not a certified weather observer, but who cares? If he calls it a blizzard, chances are it's not VFR. And if what he said sounds like VFR weather and you decide to go, turn around if it turns out to be shit.
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CID
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by CID »

I think a few points aren't being considered by some people here. In particular, regardless of the weather forecast you don't start down into IMC to start an approach in to a VFR-only airport especially when the closest source for a current altimeter setting is a hundred miles away.

We can be fixated on the flight planning phase all day but it's moot if you consider the pilot's actions at the destination.
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cncpc
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by cncpc »

old_man wrote:Reading the cadors it looks like JRCC Trenton, at 1620Z, confirmed the plane crashed. Not that the plane crashed at 1620.
The CADOR gives a detailed lat long of the accident site, which I assume comes from GPS at the scene. The location, if it correct, is not lined up with any approach, but 2.1 miles north northeast of the runway.
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tbaylx
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by tbaylx »

Doc wrote:There is one method of picking up weather if the local forecasts are not really up to your liking.
I've used this method MANY times.
It's not something that is as accurate as a trained observer, granted. But, it's a way to get fair to good weather reports.
It's a system we've used for years.
I can't believe nobody has suggested this method.
Reba McIntire even sings a song about it.

It's called the PHONE!!!!
Call the nursing station.
Call the Cop station.
Call the band office.
Call other operators in the area.
It's up to you to get the weather. Find a way........or STAY HOME.

Or, is this too simple?
I always found that the weather at the destination when you called was directly proportional to how badly whoever i was talking to wanted what was on my airplane. To be honest, other than running into ice on the way, does it really matter at all what the forecast was? The idea being that you can shoot an approach legally all day and be perfectly safe as long as you don't bust minimums. If someone really wants to pay for the gas to go take a look i've never had a problem with that, just don't ask me to go below sector if there isn't a IFR approach.
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SnotRocket
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by SnotRocket »

tbaylx wrote:I always found that the weather at the destination when you called was directly proportional to how badly whoever i was talking to wanted what was on my airplane. To be honest, other than running into ice on the way, does it really matter at all what the forecast was? The idea being that you can shoot an approach legally all day and be perfectly safe as long as you don't bust minimums. If someone really wants to pay for the gas to go take a look i've never had a problem with that, just don't ask me to go below sector if there isn't a IFR approach.
You hit the nail on the head.
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Doc
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Doc »

grimey wrote: And if what he said sounds like VFR weather and you decide to go, turn around if it turns out to be shit.
I always thought this last bit was pretty obvious? Guess not. The "pop and chips" can always go tomorrow. Another huge problem is......the customer always goes with the lowest bidder. Sometimes you get what you pay for.
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circle2land
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by circle2land »

cncpc wrote:
old_man wrote:Reading the cadors it looks like JRCC Trenton, at 1620Z, confirmed the plane crashed. Not that the plane crashed at 1620.
The CADOR gives a detailed lat long of the accident site, which I assume comes from GPS at the scene. The location, if it correct, is not lined up with any approach, but 2.1 miles north northeast of the runway.

The crash site is actually lined up nearly perfect with the extended centreline. I saw it today first hand and it was quite a sobering experience. My estimate would put it anywhere between 1 mile to 1.5 miles away.
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into the blue
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by into the blue »

Cncpc, I think you've made an error while entering the coordinates. The accident site is pretty much on the center-line for approach to RWY13. I've plugged the numbers into Google too and the spot was exactly where it showed on SKYPILOT1956's screenshot. Also, I have reasons to believe that TSB is using the same datum as Google (WGS84), so his picture should be accurate in that regard as well.

Again, condolences to all the victims' families and friends.
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circle2land
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by circle2land »

I have outlined where the crash site is. Pretty much on the centreline
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cncpc
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by cncpc »

I cut and pasted the coordinates from the CADOR and that's where Google put them. Anyways, we have it from better sources that it's on the approach.
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Prairie Chicken »

Aircraft filed IFR ywg-kq3 crashed at 1000, reported to have left ywg at 0715. (once again 2h45....roughly a 90 kt groundspeed for a pa31-350??)
IFR flt plan with interim stops? Not common but I'm sure it can be done.
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Prairie Chicken »

employerofchoice, heck of a first post, hope to read your second soon. Passion is what will be needed if we are going to prevent the same mistakes from happening again. Look at Widow has been able to achieve.
Very true. I think there is enough passion; the problem is $. As long as TC doesn't have the budget I don't believe you'll see anything but decline. And given the govenrment's direction ... I see more SMS & less regulatory oversight.
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Northern Flyer
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Northern Flyer »

Prairie Chicken wrote:
Aircraft filed IFR ywg-kq3 crashed at 1000, reported to have left ywg at 0715. (once again 2h45....roughly a 90 kt groundspeed for a pa31-350??)
IFR flt plan with interim stops? Not common but I'm sure it can be done.
Exactly what I was thinking.
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Lloyd YWG FIC
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Lloyd YWG FIC »

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SoundAir11
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by SoundAir11 »

"Aircraft filed IFR ywg-kq3 crashed at 1000, reported to have left ywg at 0715. (once again 2h45....roughly a 90 kt groundspeed for a pa31-350??)"

According to the TSB and FlightAware, the aircraft launched at 0751hrs. I never flew the 350 but I used to fly a PA31-310 and If memory serves me correct, we flight planned at 180TAS,and with a distance of roughly 235nm, without winds, that would put him overhead at aound 0915 local.(approx) A witness interviewed shortly after the crash reported that they heard the plane circling overhead the airport for sometime before the crash. For what its worth.
I'm dating myself here but back in the mid 80's, Keystone had another fatal crash involving weather. One of their Seneca's iced up on approach to the Swan River airport, Keystone's base at the time. Two souls on board, pilot and passenger. The passenger didn't make it.
Maybe after this crash maybe Keystone wont be able to afford the insurance to fly.
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Cat Driver
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Cat Driver »

There's a lot of hate here based on little information.
Yes, I hate to read about these accidents.
Yes, I've heard all the bad stories about Keystone.
These stories are not true, they are just made up by people who hate Keystone?
But a crash could happen to anyone even if you follow all the rules.
Really? you are telling me that the chances of crashing are the same if you follow the rules as if you don't?

I learn something new here every day.
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Jastapilot »

Prairie Chicken wrote:
Aircraft filed IFR ywg-kq3 crashed at 1000, reported to have left ywg at 0715. (once again 2h45....roughly a 90 kt groundspeed for a pa31-350??)
IFR flt plan with interim stops? Not common but I'm sure it can be done.

Last time I checked, North Spirit Lake was in Ontario? Those times are local, as I understand it, which makes it a 1:45 minute flight.

223NM between YWG and CKQ3, and at about 170kt groundspeed its 1:19 enroute. Add a couple of approaches and it all adds up.
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Lloyd YWG FIC
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Lloyd YWG FIC »

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2R
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by 2R »

CID wrote:I think a few points aren't being considered by some people here. In particular, regardless of the weather forecast you don't start down into IMC to start an approach in to a VFR-only airport especially when the closest source for a current altimeter setting is a hundred miles away.

We can be fixated on the flight planning phase all day but it's moot if you consider the pilot's actions at the destination.
Sandy Lake LWIS 38 nm northwest of North Spirit.
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Mr. North »

I agree with a few other posters on here regarding the amount of vitriol within these pages. I find it very hypocritical that many here chastised those making comments on recent accidents this summer are the same ones rushing to burn Keystone to the ground before all the facts are in. Sure they have a bad track record and I certainly wouldn't want to work there but that shouldn't allow all of you to write the kind of posts I've been reading here. I'm rather disgusted with the lack of professionalism displayed here to be honest. Here one of our brothers has died and all we can do is chastise his employer and the decisions he made/did not make. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for discussing what happened but lets maintain a degree of civility, please.


When I first learned of this accident, this is what first came to mind.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/201 ... ights.html

Clearly SMS is not working for the smaller operators.
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Jastapilot
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Jastapilot »

Lloyd YWG FIC wrote:Much of the western half of NW Ontario is in the Central time zone.

http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/obj/inms-ienm ... Z06SWE.jpg
Oops! Ok, thanks for that, now I'm back to being really confused.
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Lloyd YWG FIC
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by Lloyd YWG FIC »

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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by 5dayer »

Very unfortunate accident. Im sure the GPS, altimeter setting and flat light tell the story, but time will tell.
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flyinthebug
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Re: Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

Post by flyinthebug »

Mr. North wrote:I agree with a few other posters on here regarding the amount of vitriol within these pages. I find it very hypocritical that many here chastised those making comments on recent accidents this summer are the same ones rushing to burn Keystone to the ground before all the facts are in. Sure they have a bad track record and I certainly wouldn't want to work there but that shouldn't allow all of you to write the kind of posts I've been reading here. I'm rather disgusted with the lack of professionalism displayed here to be honest. Here one of our brothers has died and all we can do is chastise his employer and the decisions he made/did not make. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for discussing what happened but lets maintain a degree of civility, please.


When I first learned of this accident, this is what first came to mind.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/201 ... ights.html

Clearly SMS is not working for the smaller operators.
Mr North...

I understand how a few of us that are usually the ones telling people to be quiet until we know the facts...are the same few that are picking up the torchs and pitch forks on this one.

I agree that emotion has gotten the better of me. A young man who was obviously loved by his peers and 3 other innocent people are dead. The thing is we have a fairly good knowledge of the workings at Keystone, and therefore maybe even feel some responsibility for not (being able) to do anything to shut them down. How many fatal accidents does it take to outrage even the most rational of people? Id suggest some of us have reached our limit with this last one.

Im passionate about this because ive spent most of my career in 703/704. I know how hard it was to try to run an honest, safe air service...while bidding against people like this operator who undercut you, because they can. They can because they push pilots, take bigger loads in the same aircraft...and to the customer, all they see is they can get 200 lbs more on a K***tone PA31-350 than we can on xxx airlines, so were gonna go with the cheapest. After all, at the end of the day in business, it is all about the bottom line.

People like Doc and myself have spent alot of our careers in NW Ont and MB and we understand just how bad things at this air service are.

So I would like to apologize for any words ive typed that have hurt the families or friends of those lost in this tragic accident. That was in no way my intentions. Normally I wouldnt be so aggressive about any accident...but I find it even hard to call this an accident. Same players as were managing before, same results. Someone needs to open their eyes at TC and take their AOC once and for all.

Please understand its our passion to never see this repeat itself that is causing the outrage. Not the pilot, or the passengers who were innocent in all this.
If you had seen years of what we have seen there. You too would be as outraged as we are. Should we just bury our heads in the sand and say nothing? Should we turn a blind eye to bad operators who somehow manage to stay in business, only to kill again? I believe the families and friends of those lost...want the truth. The truth is, this operator is horrible and has a horrible track record to back it up. Thats just a public fact.

Fly safe all.
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