Are the Emb new hires worried?

[Supercooljetace]

Just wondering what the mood is regarding AC new hires with all the talk of AC farming out the smaller fleet to lower cost regional companies ie Jazz/sky regional? With bankruptcy protection almost imminent, acpa will have its hands tied. Feel bad for friends there, it's a lose-lose situation. Hope jazz and sky regional at least give the out of work type rated guys an interview. This industry is a mess.

[Plim Sole]

Here fishy fishy fishy!

[cj555]

Just wondering what the mood is regarding AC new hires with all the talk of AC farming out the smaller fleet to lower cost regional companies ie Jazz/sky regional? With bankruptcy protection almost imminent, acpa will have its hands tied. Feel bad for friends there, it's a lose-lose situation. Hope jazz and sky regional at least give the out of work type rated guys an interview. This industry is a mess.

What does this instability at AC mean for pilots working their way up with their eye on AC in 2 - 5 years?

If the smaller fleet is outsourced to regional lower cost carriers (Jazz/Sky Regional), will this downsize affect the number of pilots needed (ie will there be alot of pilots out of work, or will most of them just move to the new carrier)?

If alot of pilots lose their jobs, that means the number of qualifed applicants applying at mainline AC and at WJ will go through the roof, and any new pilots building hours now will be set back years trying to compete. What a mess indeed.

[cj555]

AC's main problem is that has a legacy carrier cost structure. This means that AC cannot compete with the low cost structure of companies like Porter and WJ. For example, Porter can fly with 50% load factor (half the seats filled) and still make a profit. However, AC needs a much higher load factor to remain profitable. Key takeaway: AC cannot afford to discount its tickets to the same level as the competitors.

Something has to give: either AC lowers its cost structure or it goes bankrupt. In effect, WJ and Porter are discounting their tickets to the point where they barely make a profit, but the key is: they are able to make money. In turn, AC has to discount ticket prices to avoid losing customers, but is unable to turn a profit due to the high cost structure. Without lowering its costs, AC will continue to hemorrhage cash as it discounts ticket prices in order to compete. This can only go on for so long before the legacy cost structure implodes on itself.

[Inverted2]

It's not like all 60 Embraers would go overnight. When the RJ's went to Jazz they came at maybe 1 or 2 a month. If they do go to Skyregional or Jazz, its extremely unlikely any AC pilot would be laid off.

[Xander]

To answer your original question ''Supercooljetace'': of course I've thought about it...

But you know what, a guy has to advance in his career. We all do, each in our own way. For some of us, it's working on a beaver in the summertime, for others like me, it's the big jets.

Right now I got some really expensive ink on my blue ''Aviation Document'', and nobody can take it away from me. I also have ''Air Canada'' on my resume, and I have NOT had the chief pilot sign my log book yet.

When I got on the course back in Feb, I heard all sorts of speculation, and I mean ALL sorts. The worst place is here, all doom and gloom...except a few rare optimists. I come here mostly for entertainement.

What I CAN tell you is this: when I talk to the guys that have been in the business for a while, I realize that all this is part of the game. A lot of my captains were captains on the RJ before, and they were laid off for a while. They all found work elsewhere, for a little while, then you know what? They got recalled.

So yeah, I want to stay at AC, based in Montreal on the Embraer. That would be my first choice! However, if worse comes to worse (which I don't think will happen), I'll go fly elsewhere for a little while, but with all the retirements there is right now - I mean a LOT - I don't think it would be for very long.

[hithere]

Good post, Xander. I think you have a better handle on things than the author of this post. I have worked for Jazz for 15 years and while some here seem optimistic about the possibilty of getting more flying from AC at your expense, I am actually worried about what may happen. The only thing I see you guys losing is you 15 175s with Jazz maybe getting 15 more 705's. I don't think that will result in any net benefit for us however, because I can't see us continuing to operate the 400s when Sky Regional is willing to operate them for so much less than us. Furthermore, I'm sure the smaller dashes are going elsewhere too. And we have way less retirements than AC and we just lost our Thomas Cook flying.

[haironfire]

The problem as I see it we as pilots in Canada are continuously losing every time this happens no matter what company we are with. After 12 years in the military as a pilot, I am now working at my 4th airline in Canada. Sometimes the company that I have worked for has gained at another company's expense, and vice versa. Our companies are continually trying to undercut each other, and they are taking it out of our pocket books to do that. The suits gain and we as pilots lose, and the race to the bottom continues. I wish we could band together and fight back

[cj555]

And we have way less retirements than AC and we just lost our Thomas Cook flying.

What is the Thomas Cook flying?

[livin']

I wouldn't base any career decisions based on the embraers leaving Air Canada. They are at AC and right now there is no reason to assume they will be leaving.

If things do change and the 175's go to a regional carrier then they would most likely go to regional or Georgian or some other regional startup.

It is unfortunate that jazz was setup by ACE the way it was. I wish they were kept in the fold but I don't think you have to look much further than Aveos to see their future as far as AC is concerened. Hopefully chorus/jazz is able to diversify and get flying elsewhere.

[mbav8r]

This is not meant to be rude, I can assure you if you try the search function and type Jazz Thomas Cook, you'll find plenty of posts regarding this issue. Most recently Thomas Cook cancelled a 5 year agreement with Jazz, 3 years early, to make a agreement with WJ.

[cj555]

This is not meant to be rude, I can assure you if you try the search function and type Jazz Thomas Cook, you'll find plenty of posts regarding this issue. Most recently Thomas Cook cancelled a 5 year agreement with Jazz, 3 years early, to make a agreement with WJ.

Thanks for the tip. So if I understand correctly, Thomas Cook is an operator that owns the aircraft, but contracts Jazz/WJ pilots to fly their airplanes under the Sunquest/Thomas Cook banner?

[Fanblade]

Good post, Xander. I think you have a better handle on things than the author of this post. I have worked for Jazz for 15 years and while some here seem optimistic about the possibilty of getting more flying from AC at your expense, I am actually worried about what may happen. The only thing I see you guys losing is you 15 175s with Jazz maybe getting 15 more 705's. I don't think that will result in any net benefit for us however, because I can't see us continuing to operate the 400s when Sky Regional is willing to operate them for so much less than us. Furthermore, I'm sure the smaller dashes are going elsewhere too. And we have way less retirements than AC and we just lost our Thomas Cook flying.

Hithere,

I'd say you are probably pretty darn close. A slow attrition of 175's from the mainline fleet is the most likely outcome. However I doubt you will see Q400's go. I would think you will see your CPA requirement number of airframes (120ish?) With as many seats as possible moving as fast as possible. It brings down Jazz's cost per ASM. The smaller slower stuff off to cheaper providers.

Since there is no sarcasm font............read the rest sarcastically.

So everyone gets to fly larger for less than the last guy. Yippee!

I'm pretty sure this is a remake of a movie I watched. If I remember correctly it goes like this.

Then any airframe growth at Teir 2 is used to create new CPA players who make less. Yippie!

Then at CPA renewal? The cheaper bids will win. Some pilot groups will win the luxury of flying even larger for less than the last guy. Yippie!

Eventually a Q400 will fall out of the sky with the FO making 18K per year. The experienced pilots either left the country or gave up on the industry. It will be a sad day and everyone will ask how could this happen.

The government will hold hearings on regional flight safety but will do nothing of substance when they realize that at the exact same time as Air Canada was Americanizing their regional system the government was drastically reducing over sight.

Instead they will bring in measures to reduce fatigue...........even though the FO still cant afford to live in YYZ or afford a room. But its better because they only have to fly 10 hours with poor rest rather than 14. All will be declared safe again.

Mothers don't let your children grow up to be pilots.

[mbav8r]

Thank you Fanblade, for than Nostradamus like look into the future. I believe when we look back 10 years from now, we will see 98% of your predictions come true. The only missing part is where do the foreign pilots fit in?
As much as I poke the bear, I don't want to fly larger for less. I do want to board the airplane I fly with more seniority than some rampie who hasn't been hired yet or his family for that matter.
I only have 20 years to go, how much worse can it get, he says sarcastically while rolling his eyes.

[Localizer]

Thanks for the tip. So if I understand correctly, Thomas Cook is an operator that owns the aircraft, but contracts Jazz/WJ pilots to fly their airplanes under the Sunquest/Thomas Cook banner?

Jazz operated Thomas Cook aircraft on behalf of Thomas Cook .. Westjet is operating their own aircraft carrying Thomas Cook passengers .. Its a cheaper deal for Thomas Cook as they just buy the seats not lease the plane or pay for the fuel.

[spaz]

Embraer trans-border flying will be at Pinnacle by this time next year.

[cj555]

Embraer trans-border flying will be at Pinnacle by this time next year.

Hi Spaz,

Can you elaborate on that a little? What do you mean?

[tailgunner]

Quit fishing Spaz,
Under your logic, next year Pinnacle/Colgan would be doing ALL of the trans border flying. They are cheaper than mainline, and they are cheaper than Jazz, but they also have track records of major hull losses.....

[Les Habitants]

Don't worry, surcooljetace, just tell them your handle on avcanada and tell them you call yourself that becuz you can fly an ILS inverted and they will never lay you off

[spaz]

Not fishing. If the pilots lose scope on the EMJ's the company can put them anywhere.

Fact, they won't stay at mainline.

You could debate whether Jazz or Sky Regional (or Georgian, or Voyager, or Capital One etc...) would get them, but think like the board of directors. What is the cheapest option?

No question, an American CPA provider is the cheapest. Then ask yourself what are the barriers to sending the flying south of the border. 1.) Loss of Canadian jobs, and 2.) A poor perception of the safety record of American regionals.

As to point 1. - The company doesn't care and the government has no appetite or ability to step in. Those are now U.S. jobs, Canadian labour law doesn't follow them across the border.

As to point 2. - Pinnacle went into their restructuring with only one of their CPA contracts intact, they have capacity to provide the service, and experience with EMJ's, they could get up and running faster than anyone. They will come out of their restructuring touting a new 'culture' and business plan, and a fresh start. The public doesn't give a shit about safety records, just ticket prices so that's not really a problem for Air Canada.

[rudder]

The EMB 190's will stay at AC. The EMB 175's will be sold off.

[Plim Sole]

Of course... getting rid of 15 EMB175s will completely solve all the problems. There will be labour peace, everyone will get a pay raise and the pensions problems will vanish.

I'll try some of what you're smoking please!

[Fanblade]

Plim,

Name a major airline that farms out 110 seat aircraft to a CPA in North America. Then read the legislation forcing arbitration.

With that said? Yes AC is definitely looking to increase the amount of ASM's at the regionals. That will impact the E190.

Due to the Trans Boarder Joint Venture, revenue sharing is based on % of flying. AC, or a CPA player of AC's, will need to do the work or they will relinquish the revenue.

AC would need to sign a CPA with them. Not just relinquish the flying to UA.

But your right. Nothing stopping them assuming the arbitrator strips Jazz exclusivity from the ACPA CBA.

[hithere]

What is the "Trans Border Joint Venture"?

[Fanblade]

What is the "Trans Border Joint Venture"?

The evolution of code share. Right now AC is part of the trans Atlantic Joint Venture. The Transboarder Joint Venture is on hold waiting the competition tribunal.

Essentially it is a virtual merge since real mergers are not legal at the moment with many states.

All airlines involved sit down and plan schedules and connections together. It requires anti trust immunity in the US which has been granted, and competition tribunal approval here.

All revenue is shared on a % of operation, not route by route.

But that is the key. Revenue sharing based on % of trans boarder operation. AC needs to operate to get the revenue. To use pinnacle they would need to get AC code on them. They would need a CPA with them.

I was pointing out AC would not likely just dump the flying to a regional operating under a CPA for UA.

As for specifically what is planned? Who knows. However one of CR's goals is to have a sizable competitor in place for Jazz by the time CPA renewal takes place. How does one build a competitor and use Pinnacle at the same time?

On balance my guess would be no. AC has a finite amount of regional capacity required. They are almost maxed out on ACPA scope now. The present push by the company, based on the last offer we have seen, looks to increase regional ASM's by about 70% and with larger aircraft. So airframes will not increase as much as ASM's. If we assume they could put 50 more regional aircraft in the air after the ACPA negotiations for example. I would guess SKY not Pinnacle.