Has the Great Vacuum Started?

[Sky_Conqueror]

Hey dear colleagues! I wanted to post this question to see if many rumours could confirmed. With all the hiring from the Big Ones, is it true that companies now are either struggling to keep and find qualified individuals? I was recently speaking to one pilot who just left his old job for a captain position and he was telling me that recently, his old organization could not find any Captains (2500TT) nor F/O's (1500TT) to fill the gaps because everyone was leaving for bigger machines, even though the company has quite a good operation and reputation. Soon they would have to drop considerably their minimums. I was wondering if you people could share your thoughts and the rumours you hear everyday on the ramp. Could the infamous ''Shortage of Pilots'' we have all been wanting for for 15 years be initializing now???? Good things ahead??? Thanks

[Johnny#5]

Good for now until Big Red lays-off a ton of pilots after companies like Flair take over low-cost flying....

Get some float time - there's less and less people qualified/experienced to fly floats and it's becoming even more of a "niche-skill" inside this industry. Otherwise get a bunch of King Air time...lots of those things operating.

[Diadem]

What do you mean "you people"?

[DanWEC]

What's the economic difference between dropping hiring minimums and paying higher insurance premiums, or paying that same expenditure in higher salary for talent retention?
Not simply a rhetorical question, I don't know what effect lowering minimums by say 750 hrs would have on an a 703/704 operators insurance.
If feasible, it seems that increasing salary would be a better scenario, as you'd keep more experienced pilots as well.

[KK7]

What's the economic difference between dropping hiring minimums and paying higher insurance premiums, or paying that same expenditure in higher salary for talent retention?
Not simply a rhetorical question, I don't know what effect lowering minimums by say 750 hrs would have on an a 703/704 operators insurance.
If feasible, it seems that increasing salary would be a better scenario, as you'd keep more experienced pilots as well.

The economic difference is not as simple as (experience + lower insurance) = (inexperience + higher insurance)

There is a reason that insurance is higher, that is that there is higher risk.

The operator pays for that higher risk through insurance and loss of reputation when bad things start happening.

Plus lower experience gets you more dings in aircraft maintenance, reduced dispatch reliability, reduced efficiency, plus, plus, plus...

It certainly pays to retain your experienced crews and to get more experienced new hires.

But in the end, margins are razor thin in this business. You can only pay what you can afford.

[wallypilot]

To answer the O.P., the hiring was very strong from 2005-2008 as well. There was ridiculous movement there for a couple years, so any ramp up now hasn't been 15 years in the making...the "vacuum" as you call it, starts and stops. It will always start and stop. It will stop again, sometime in the next 1-5 years, and then start up again a couple more years after that, barring any new super major world event/war/terror attack/sudden economic meltdown/etc. The key is to have an idea where you want to be, and when things do ramp up, be ready for that opportunity.

[tiguan]

Definitely no shortage. Just ask the rampies at my company who have been waiting over 12 months for a right seat on a king air.

[Doc]

Definitely no shortage. Just ask the rampies at my company who have been waiting over 12 months for a right seat on a king air.

12 months? The vacuum is here....it's between their ears! Think of all the knowledge they're stuffing into their empty heads!

[iflyforpie]

Definitely no shortage. Just ask the rampies at my company who have been waiting over 12 months for a right seat on a king air.

12 months? The vacuum is here....it's between their ears! Think of all the knowledge they're stuffing into their empty heads!

They are experiencing the great vacuum alright. Now, is it an Electrolux or a Dirt Devil?

[shimmydampner]

I don't understand why you (doc and ifly) feel the need to insult young people trying hard to work their way into a tough industry. Despite the fact that you may not agree with their employment choice (which should be of no consequence to you) it is no reason to belittle them. It seems rude and immature.

On a side note, what do you believe the ratio of entry level flying positions to new CPLs is? Better or worse than 1:1?

[Doc]

I don't understand why you (doc and ifly) feel the need to insult young people trying hard to work their way into a tough industry. Despite the fact that you may not agree with their employment choice (which should be of no consequence to you) it is no reason to belittle them. It seems rude and immature.

On a side note, what do you believe the ratio of entry level flying positions to new CPLs is? Better or worse than 1:1?

They've been on a ramp for a YEAR! C'MON man, give your head a shake! If I sound "insulting", "tough titty, said the kitty!" If my kid wanted to spend 12 months working on a ramp in the HOPE it would lead to a flying job, he'd be sleeping in the garage! Go flip burgers!

[Doc]

Definitely no shortage. Just ask the rampies at my company who have been waiting over 12 months for a right seat on a king air.

12 months? The vacuum is here....it's between their ears! Think of all the knowledge they're stuffing into their empty heads!

They are experiencing the great vacuum alright. Now, is it an Electrolux or a Dirt Devil?

Dyson! All our vacuums have balls....

[iflyforpie]

What do you do with 12 months on the ramp? Stick it out in hopes you get a seat? Or go next door (or next province) and go to the end of the line for the next ramp position? All while the hands and feet are getting rusty from the lack of 172 hours--never mind a King Air--and your ratings are coming up to expiry. It's insanity I say!

Am I supposed to feel sorry for those who got themselves in that position? Do you want to know what I did when I was a young pilot with no hours and experience and nobody would hire me for anything other than slave labour and poverty wages? I quit. I didn't fly for two years commercially.

I spun wrenches, paid off debt, spent time with the family, kept my flying up by renting and borrowing airplanes, and waited for a good offer from a good company that got me into a flying job right away. I flew my first revenue hour day one after a very intensive morning of training and paperwork. Still with the company and doing better in working conditions, compensation, and lifestyle than just about any of my colleagues who went on to 'bigger and better things'.

[Doc]

Totally agree with the pie man, Except for pies. He likes lemon meringue, and I prefer blueberry!

Other than that, well if you're going to sign onto a ramp job, for Christ's sake have enough "pills" to make it a very finite period of time! Any more than 60 days, and you're being completely hosed! I'm curious, after a YEAR, how many of "your" seats have been taken by guys with 900 hours (more or less) in front of you? I'd be willing to bet, several?
If you have 250 hours and a MEIFR you are a hazard!
If you have 250 hours, a MEIFR and you haven't FLOWN for 12 months, you're absolutely USELESS! You would be unable to handle a 150 in a five knot wind.
You will learn all you will about the business (what a crock of shit!!!) in about a week on a ramp! There's nothing to be learned here, except frustration. You want to learn to tie knots? Join the Boy Scouts!
The ONLY people that recommend you work on a ramp, are those who did so before you. This does not make it a good idea.
Of course, now everybody will jump all over me because THEY worked on a ramp, and WTF would I know about it any way? Such is life. You know, as much as I like to "stir it up", and I do, I also try very hard to give sound advice. Some, choose not to follow it. But, I HAVE been there....have you?

[DanWEC]

The ramp can a good way to eventually get into a seat, but as a means to an end purely, and it's so, so sad that it exists- and it's deemed as a necessary evil.
The way I see it, I don't want to work for a company that uses that type of exploitation at all.
Orientation, sure, foot in the door? Sure. Cheap unrelated labour? Nope.
I remember one crusty old ops manager telling me last year that he hates how much movement there is because he can't keep guys on the ground long enough to flog them for a year to prove themselves. Whew. Must be tough for him.

I was hired for a ground position a while back. I left after a few months on good terms for a variety of converging reasons, in retrospect I am very glad I did.
I'm halfway through doing an instructor rating now, and back to my original line of work making proper income on the side.

As far as guys getting hired for FO's over rampies, I haven't heard much of it- that would be a slap in the face- but it undeniably happens... Now for captains, it's happening every day. Transwest for example is advertising monthly for direct entry captains. Constant 2 capt line indocs really hurt the FO's trying to get flying time.

[Doc]

As far as guys getting hired for FO's over rampies, I haven't heard much of it- that would be a slap in the face- but it undeniably happens... Now for captains, it's happening every day. Transwest for example is advertising monthly for direct entry captains. Constant 2 capt line indocs really hurt the FO's trying to get flying time.

Happens all the time. You take a job working on a ramp. Fine. Do you get any guarantee, (IN WRITING) that your forklift antics will lead to a seat in an aircraft? Of course you don't. Nobody has the 'nads to insist on any kind of contract. Hell, if rampies had any kind of formal agreement with an employer that they would be there for "X" number of weeks/months, even I would get off their case. But NO, you're hired to work on a ramp. You ASSUME it will lead to an airplane, and perhaps it should, and usually it will....but there is NO guarantee. None. Who's fault is that?.....YOURS

[Diadem]

I didn't fly for two years commercially.

But...wouldn't it have been faster to work the ramp for a year and get into a plane than to wait two years to get directly into a cockpit?
Not all operators pay slave wages; some actually pay their rampies enough to live decent lives, assuming they're bachelors. I worked the ramp while I was doing my flight training for my regular income, and I enjoyed it so much that if I couldn't have found a flying job I would have kept doing the same thing. What would it matter whether I had spent a year humping bags for WestJet with no shot at a cockpit, or whether I had spent a year humping bags for a charter company with an offer of a flying job when a position opened? I'd rather work the ramp to make my living than flip burgers.

Do you get any guarantee, (IN WRITING) that your forklift antics will lead to a seat in an aircraft? Of course you don't. Nobody has the 'nads to insist on any kind of contract. Hell, if rampies had any kind of formal agreement with an employer that they would be there for "X" number of weeks/months, even I would get off their case.

Perhaps you should research before making such a strong absolutist statement. The company for which I work has low-timers sign just such a contract; they're guaranteed a flying position within twelve months.

[sanjet]

Out of personal experience, do some research on the employer before you decide to work on the ramp and dedicate yourself knowing the end mission. Past rampies currently working as pilots can give you a good idea of how the the employer will treat you. Worked out well for a me a few years ago. Just remember that they know you're a pilot and they know what you want in the end. Don't suck up, they can smell that, continue showing a good work ethic. I was never guaranteed a job but very quickly as everyone started getting to know me, they all kept pressuring the CP to get me on the line after a few months.

[DanWEC]

Perhaps you should research before making such a strong absolutist statement. The company for which I work has low-timers sign just such a contract; they're guaranteed a flying position within twelve months.

Really? I suppose it's better than hoping the company is so bad that attrition causes quick movement during strong periods. the pilots can't move on to better things, the rampies can't fill their spots. What a strange concept.

Where is that?

[shimmydampner]

Do you want to know what I did when I was a young pilot with no hours and experience and nobody would hire me for anything other than slave labour and poverty wages? I quit. I didn't fly for two years commercially.

I spun wrenches, paid off debt, spent time with the family, kept my flying up by renting and borrowing airplanes, and waited for a good offer from a good company that got me into a flying job right away. I flew my first revenue hour day one after a very intensive morning of training and paperwork. Still with the company and doing better in working conditions, compensation, and lifestyle than just about any of my colleagues who went on to 'bigger and better things'.

First, no one is suggesting anyone needs to feel sorry for anyone. I am merely suggesting that certain posters try to be civil adults and keep the unnecessary condescension to a minimum. A modicum of politeness and respect would be nice.

Okay, moving on. So let me get this right. You are putting down fresh CPLs for working for an operation in non flying positions for a period of time generally accepted to be two years or less. However it is precisely what you did, but somehow you feel self righteous about your particular situation.

It's great that you get so much satisfaction from your work. Do you think there are enough similar scenarios out there to employ 2012's crop of CPLs?

[shimmydampner]

I didn't fly for two years commercially.

But...wouldn't it have been faster to work the ramp for a year and get into a plane than to wait two years to get directly into a cockpit?
Not all operators pay slave wages; some actually pay their rampies enough to live decent lives, assuming they're bachelors. ..... I'd rather work the ramp to make my living than flip burgers.

+1.
What a reasonable post.

[x15]

Goto Manitoba. There is a tonne of government money floating around. The company I worked for had rampies come to Thompson with 200 hours. Within 6 months they had 500 TT and were right seat on the King Air and done with the ramp.

When they came to work they brought their A game. And after hours flew the the HO to build total time as a CoJo. The rampies made 32K a year to start.

There are good places that will give you a chance if you aren't afraid of a little hard work initially.

[shimmydampner]

The ramp can a good way to eventually get into a seat, but as a means to an end purely, and it's so, so sad that it exists- and it's deemed as a necessary evil.

I don't think anyone believes it is a "necessary evil." More of a less desirable eventuality for the unlucky ones who, given the reality of the unfavorable ratio of flying jobs to new CPLs, can't find their way directly into the cockpit and decide that the ramp is the best for their personal situation and career goals.

[Doc]

Perhaps you should research before making such a strong absolutist statement. The company for which I work has low-timers sign just such a contract; they're guaranteed a flying position within twelve months.

Deals a deal. He named the company. I must hasten to point out. This is extremely RARE!

[Doc]

But...wouldn't it have been faster to work the ramp for a year and get into a plane than to wait two years to get directly into a cockpit?
.

Might have been quicker. But he's a pilot. There's something you're not getting. After spending 30K on a pilot's licence, he wanted a flying job. Pretty shocking, isn't it?