hiring halter...

[Slappy the Squirrel]

This is what i think. Short term there are going to be a series of down bids flushing/volunteering people to Rouge. Hiring will take a lull for possibly a year. Then pick up again to meet crewing requirements approaching 2015.

At some point in the next 4.5 years those retirements will kick back into the equation.

When you say a "lull", do you think they won't do any hiring at all for the next 12 months? And what about the guys and gals waiting in the pool right now?

[snag]

This bid showed 16 new hires required over the next year. The October bid will probably show a handful more, and so on. All depends when the company can fit a class in and the required sim slots are available. Could be the fall, could be late spring. Right now there's a lot of training for emj guys reducing to rouge.

[JLA]

Thanks Snag. So is the bid a flying hours projection 6-8 months in advance like The Stig said previously in this thread, or does it show the staffing requirements for the next 12 months? I'm confused as to how to interpret it. If this is for the next 12 months, then 16 vacancies is not a lot AT ALL!

[SilentMajority]

There is a pretty strong rumour regarding additional 777's (4-5) which will be announced before the end of the year. These are in addition to the 5 777's previously announced.

All part of CR's "Global Powerhouse" plan going forward.

How soon this will impact hiring is anyone's guess.....just not sure how the training dept. is going to cope with 2014/15 as it now stands....

[TheStig]

Thanks Snag. So is the bid a flying hours projection 6-8 months in advance like The Stig said previously in this thread, or does it show the staffing requirements for the next 12 months? I'm confused as to how to interpret it. If this is for the next 12 months, then 16 vacancies is not a lot AT ALL!

Think of the bids as a snapshot of where the airline see's itself in 6-8 months, so those 16 vacancies will be filled by roughly January 2013 not a year from now. The bids used to be run twice a year and projected flying/hiring requirements a year down the road, the airline now runs 6 per annum so they've shortened the lead time giving crew manning more flexibility and control. For example the first 787 is scheduled to enter service in March 2014 and the first positions on that aircraft are expected to be on the October 2013 bid.

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

[MB22]

Hey Stig

Got a question on your thoughts regarding 787. Might be a question that is impossible to tell but was more so out of curiosity. Someone posted earlier they don't think any new hires will see AC in the next few years, so is it fair to assume the 787 RP position will be staffed by people already at the company that are interested? I would assume when 1 767 gets replaced with 1 787 the RP would be forced off 767 and go onto 787? Or are there people who would specifically bid 787RP who might be an FO? I was just curious, since I'd imagine the 787 to be a popular airplane so just curious how popular it will be from an RP standpoint? Thanks for your thoughts.

and by 767 being replaced I mean being sent to rouge with no RP that is of course

[TheStig]

Hey Stig

Got a question on your thoughts regarding 787. Might be a question that is impossible to tell but was more so out of curiosity. Someone posted earlier they don't think any new hires will see AC in the next few years, so is it fair to assume the 787 RP position will be staffed by people already at the company that are interested? I would assume when 1 767 gets replaced with 1 787 the RP would be forced off 767 and go onto 787? Or are there people who would specifically bid 787RP who might be an FO? I was just curious, since I'd imagine the 787 to be a popular airplane so just curious how popular it will be from an RP standpoint? Thanks for your thoughts.

and by 767 being replaced I mean being sent to rouge with no RP that is of course

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold. While I agree most new hires will have the option to bid for LCC positions, I wouldn't be surprised to see vacancies in the RP and mainline narrow body FO positions. Much like they were available for the previous 300 pilots hired (2010-2013) and the 700 before them (2005-2008). For what its worth on the past few bids there have been lots of pilots (FO's and Captains) who can hold mainline A320 positions who have bid to rouge.

[LK763]

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

Genuine question -
Fleet plan shows no real net gain in fins between AC and ACr combined. That with the lack of retirements, how do you figure there will be a steady hiring wave?

[Fanblade]

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

[TheStig]

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

Genuine question -
Fleet plan shows no real net gain in fins between AC and ACr combined. That with the lack of retirements, how do you figure there will be a steady hiring wave?

Good question, so I crunched some numbers. There isn't much growth in overall aircraft numbers, but AC is trading apples for watermelons. An EMJ requires about 10-12 pilots per aircraft, whereas a 777 requires 25-28, the 787 should fall somewhere in between the staffing levels of the 767 and 777.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

I agree the lack of retirements and transfer on the E175's has been a blow to upward movement and hiring for the last 2 bids, and likely the next one. However, retirements haven't stopped, albeit 20-30/year isn't many. Secondly about 120 EMJ positions have already been removed from the latest bid (dating back to pre-E175 transfer numbers. There has been a lot of uncertainty with respect to retirement, it will be interesting to see if retirements increase once the moratorium is in place.

Looking at the bids, all 23 B777 positions were filled earlier this year, and the company still has about 40 EMJ Captain positions heavy in YYZ. The October bid will be mostly flat from the EMJ CA position down as pilots fill B787 CA/FO positions, moving forward however, I stand by my assertion that the total number of pilots required (AC + ACr combined) from Bid 13-06 onwards will grow as B787's are brought into the fleet.

Like yourself, I'm not happy about the EMJ transfer or lack of retirements, things should have been much rosier but they aren't all doom and gloom either, to the best of my (limited) knowledge, I'm simply just trying to paint an accurate picture for those curious about where AC hiring stands at this point moving forward. Like everyone else posting here, consider my posts to be every bit of a wild-ass-guess as they next if you disagree.

[MB22]

Thanks Stig. As you said, everyone has their own opinion and ideas of what is to come but it is nice to see some posts with some form of optimism and I'm sure there are others that would agree. Lets hope the next bid continues to show a need for more pilots, even if it is only a small amount.

[Fanblade]

Stig,

I think you are close but a little on the optimistic side.

You count 40 surplus EMJ Captains. That sounds correct.

There are also 60 ish duplicate 320 CA positions at Rouge not yet reduced from mainline. The 320 FO mainline position was reduced already.

Same for the 767. All the Rouge positions are duplicate. No reductions yet.

These positions were supposed to have been vacated through upward movement due to attrition. Attrition that has stopped.

If the 787 replaces 767 flying the crewing will be close to the same. It is a 767 replacement. Certainly we haven't heard any ultra long range routes announced that would create 777 type crewing.

I understand the notion of oranges to mellon's. However the 767 at Rouge is to be crewed just above 8 crew per aircraft. No augment. No RP's. I would call that more like oranges to grapefruit.

I think you are close, but under estimating the current surplus, and overestimating the crewing for the Rouge 767. Depending on new routes with the 787, its crewing may, or may not, create a gain.

Bottom line is hiring will be mostly dependent on retirements unless a big aircraft acquisition is made beyond what we know about today.

Retirements look to be about 30 looking out 12 months from now.

[TheStig]

Fanblade,

Ok how does a wager sound? If AC doesn't run a ground school by the end of this year, you can have my next Tim's card for perfect attendance....

[Fanblade]

You get those?

[pilotbzh]

haven't seen one of those card in a long time, and I always make up that 10% loss on a sick day one way or the other...

[JLA]

So the Equipment bid showed 221 vacancies as of early 2013, reducing to a flat 16 vacancies for Aug 2013, all that because of optimistic retirements and because E175 were transferred earlier than expected? AC knew about 150 EMJ mainline jobs lost to SR, I was hoping they could take it into account in their bid prédictions. I think everybody got a bit overwhelmed by this 221 vacancies showed during spring...Not really happening.

[Fanblade]

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

Stig,

You seem to have the inside track. You were right AC kept hiring. Problem is I was also right. Their plan was hinged on retirements that haven't happened. They have continued to hire at Rouge rather than reduce surplus mainline pilots up to now. But that can only last so long. 280 is a lot of surplus mainline pilots to carry.

Any truth to the rumour that hiring is now on hold until the surplus is corrected? A reduction bid is in the works to push mainline pilots to Rouge?

[bcflyer]

To the best of my knowledge hiring is on hold. As for the reduction bid, I think we'll see the company. be very creative the next few bids. Forcing pilots to Rouge is something they want to avoid at all costs. Paying mainline wages at Rouge defeats the idea of a LCC. (At least it does if you believe wages are an important part of the equation....)

[Fanblade]

You know what is more expensive than pilots carrying mainline wages to Rouge? 280 surplus pilots on the mainline payroll.

I think they wagered on attrition taking care of the mainline surplus and lost.

[777LR]

You know what is more expensive than pilots carrying mainline wages to Rouge? 280 surplus pilots on the mainline payroll.

I think they wagered on attrition taking care of the mainline surplus and lost.

Hey Fanblade,

Where are you getting your 280 surplus from?

Thanks.