Pilot Shortage and Statistics

[Gilles Hudicourt]

Biz aviation ain't seasonal and owner gets to choose who will drive his plane. Big difference.
It becomes more and more important to choose carefully who you're willing to carry, whether it be the 1% or the winter's mass exodus willing to pay the cheapest fare.

And if your script may happen, canadian biz pilots will do what their european counterparts do. Which is what some layed off AT pilots did: some untaxed contract work overseas.

Gilles, you're saying self centered, but where were you when everything was going fine for Air Transat while sunwing was hiring foreign pilots during the last 5+ years ?
Never heard any word from you before.

Have a Merry Christmas...

Corporate flying ain't seasonal ? Oh !? But there are Corporate employers that hire 50 pilots in one shot in Canada right ? So my hypothetical-make-believe-simply-to-put-in-context story is at least a bit realistic, or not at all ?

And the corporate employer does in theory need to hire Canadians or landed Immigrants unless he can prove that no one is qualified. But that is so easy to do. All he has to do is claim that one who is not already rated and current on type with x hours can now be by-passed, overlooked in favor of the foreigner for whom the requirements were custom written. Anyone who wants to he hired must get his type rating and experience elsewhere and then apply. Only foreigners qualify ? Oh too bad!

You are ill informed. I do not know of any AT pilot who went to work overseas for foreign airlines and did not pay taxes. When we go overseas, it is to fly Canadian Registered Air Transat machines, on the Air Transat OC and Air Transat pays us, and trust me, WE ARE TAXED TO THE MAX!

When all this foreign pilot thing began, I knew nothing about it. I first learned about it through an ALPA memo in early 2012, the winter Sunwing had 180 foreign pilots while they only employed about 140 Canadian pilots. And guess who called ALPA to inform them and sound the alarm? None other than Sunwing pilots.

[tbaylx]

Gilles,

Just curious if you'e thought of the next step that companies will logically take if they are prevented from hiring foreigners. Seems to me they'll simply wet lease their requirements which as I understand isn't subject to any of the restrictions of hiring TFW. Doesn't that kind of leave us in a worse or at least the same place as we are now? Not saying we shouldn't be trying to deal with the issue, just that perhaps their are larger and longer term issues that need to be thought through before taking a hammer to stuff.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

Gilles,

Just curious if you'e thought of the next step that companies will logically take if they are prevented from hiring foreigners. Seems to me they'll simply wet lease their requirements which as I understand isn't subject to any of the restrictions of hiring TFW. Doesn't that kind of leave us in a worse or at least the same place as we are now? Not saying we shouldn't be trying to deal with the issue, just that perhaps their are larger and longer term issues that need to be thought through before taking a hammer to stuff.

There is a new wet lease policy that limits the number of foreign aircraft a company can lease to 20% of its fleet.

[OPEC6-Heavy]

Gilles,
Give it up man. I can't wait to see your response when Transat rips-off the same business plan and starts importing French pilots from Transavia France. TS also using Transavia SOP's, sounds like a great fit.

self-centered pilot !!

[North Shore]

^Nice argument If Transat were to adopt this as a business strategy, and if Gilles was not as critical of that as he is of Sunwing, then you could call him on it...until then, you're engaging in a pretty speculative argument.

Keep at 'er, Gilles!

[bmc]

Gilles....Thank you for not being a typical apathetic Canadian.

I have no skin in this game whatsoever. If you were not so passionate about this, and tirelessly leading the charge for the ultimate benefit of fellow Canadian pilots, good polite Canadians would grumble and let it all pass, adding it to the list of things Canadians like to bitch about, like immigration and Steve Harper.

Keep making people uncomfortable. That's how change happens.

[truedude]

This is an interesting report, and deserves a good read. Despite DaveP's assurances that everything is fine, there are several indicators that suggest supply is starting to shrink. But I think it is important to understand that a "pilot shortage" does not necessarily mean huge wage increases overnight. But anyone who has been in this industry for any amount of time can surely attest to the fact that is far easier to find work today, than it was in 2002. Pay for many smaller carriers has also increased as it has been harder find pilots with applicable experience. Both of these suggest a a shift in supply and demand. Larger carriers, such as Air Canada and Westjet, are somewhat isolated from this, as they sit atop the pyramid and will take longer to be impacted by a shifting balance of supply. Encore has managed to dodge this problem by dangling a rather large carrot to attract pilots--flow through. But if at any point in the future a timely flow through becomes questionable, they too will feel the pressure.

Barring any great disruption to the economy, or sudden rise in fuel costs, I do suspect by the end of the decade we will start to see and feel tangible results of this dwindling supply. I think individuals such as DaveP are well aware of this, but it is to their interest not to advertise it.

http://www.atac.ca/web/images/atac/file ... ersion.pdf

[TrailerParkBoy]

Pilot shortages around the world, that I can believe! Pilot shortage in Canada, not really!

What the shortage is for, is the lack of experienced pilots,for the jobs available, at the poor salary for their experience level!

10 years ago, WestJet would hire 703 turboprop pilots with enough PIC time. 8 years ago, they wanted 705 experience, then Jet experience!

So basically, companies will demand more experienced pilots at the same pay. That pilot will have to sacrifice 2 or 3 more years to get that experience only to be a few years behind in their career now!

[zulutime]

Fact.
There is a pilot shortage and it's getting worse.

[...]

Pilot schools in Canada have a legitimate sales pitch for new students as long as they stay away from the Canadian market as far as shortages here go.

Are you serious

What makes you even suspect there is a shortage of new inexperienced pilots, in any part of the world ?? Even with a self-funded typerating, a 250TT pilot has almost zero chance of finding a paying job. I'd like to be proven wrong.

704/705's hire students right out of college every year. Flying a plane is EASY! 6 weeks ground school to learn the aircraft and a PPC in the sim and off you go. I don't believe any of those companies have been able to chock up any incidents to the fact the FO is a low time pilot.

[truedude]

Pilot shortages around the world, that I can believe! Pilot shortage in Canada, not really!

What the shortage is for, is the lack of experienced pilots,for the jobs available, at the poor salary for their experience level!

10 years ago, WestJet would hire 703 turboprop pilots with enough PIC time. 8 years ago, they wanted 705 experience, then Jet experience!

So basically, companies will demand more experienced pilots at the same pay. That pilot will have to sacrifice 2 or 3 more years to get that experience only to be a few years behind in their career now!

If you really believe that to be true, then you have to also believe that Canadian aviation operates inside a vacuum, and is immune to the long term demands of pilots world wide. That has never been true, nor is it true in today's global economy. And your argument that WestJet, an airline that sits atop the pyramid, can change what they want for experience and still find pilots is not proof of anything. Nor have I seen any evidence that companies can demand more experience today, for crap pay, than they did ten years ago. Pay for pilots in the last decade has gone up for many sectors of the industry. That alone suggests there is a supply issue (Encore's ability to attract pilots to crap conditions is an artificial means to work around the supply problem).

DaveP also talked about two school's in Ontario that can still fill their aviation classes without any problems. What he failed to mention is that those programs are also heavily subsidized for Ontario residents. Two other schools that have traditionally had few problems filling classes are Mount Royal University (Formally MRC) and Selkirk. But today, both of those programs receive less applications than spots available. That is a new dynamic that has developed in the last few years, not seen for thirty years. It just takes time for numbers like that to catch up.

WestJet, Air Canada, Jazz, and everyone else knows this. They just don't want to advertise it. And our neighbors to the South are also about to feel the squeeze should the major's continue to expand and recall furloughed pilots. Personally I think we as a group will have a lot more power in deciding our fate moving forward--lets just not @#$! it up this time!

[digits_]

Fact.
There is a pilot shortage and it's getting worse.

[...]

Pilot schools in Canada have a legitimate sales pitch for new students as long as they stay away from the Canadian market as far as shortages here go.

Are you serious

What makes you even suspect there is a shortage of new inexperienced pilots, in any part of the world ?? Even with a self-funded typerating, a 250TT pilot has almost zero chance of finding a paying job. I'd like to be proven wrong.

704/705's hire students right out of college every year. Flying a plane is EASY! 6 weeks ground school to learn the aircraft and a PPC in the sim and off you go. I don't believe any of those companies have been able to chock up any incidents to the fact the FO is a low time pilot.

And do you have any numbers that show how many pilots we're talking about ? How many % gets hired ? 5% ? 10% ?

[westcoasting]

How does one get a job overseas though if it is almost impossible to get time in a jet in canada?

[tbaylx]

How does one get a job overseas though if it is almost impossible to get time in a jet in canada?

One doesn't unless they have said jet time. Most of the guys overseas at a major carrier are all ex C3, Royal, Jetsgo, Canadian, "insert name of bankrupt airline here". Once you lose your seniority number, starting at the bottom of someone else's list for $40K a year with all the other 25 year old new hires becomes less attractive, hence moving overseas.

If someone here in Canada eventually hires DEC's with a decent package there is a flood of experienced expats waiting to come home.

[hawker driver]

It won't be long before the US regionals start looking up north for pilots.
A friend of mine told me that in their last hiring class in January of the 25 pilots hired only 3 showed up on the first day.

There is already an agreement between TC and the FAA for easier license conversion.

[rudder]

It won't be long before the US regionals start looking up north for pilots.
A friend of mine told me that in their last hiring class in January of the 25 pilots hired only 3 showed up on the first day.

There is already an agreement between TC and the FAA for easier license conversion.

The issue is not licence, it is the right to legally live and work in the US. Unless commercial pilots are added to the list of "special skills" professions that can get admitted (with a bona fide job offer and employment sponsor) then the alleged pilot shortage means nothing. And you can rest assured that the US pilot unions will fight any allowance for foreign pilot labour tooth and nail.

Last decade that CDN pilots were allowed to accept employment offers from US airlines was the 1960's.

[fish4life]

Sadly the dirtball operations in the states are hurting right now you know the type that pay $15000 for an FO so they may start poaching instructors from Canada with the magic 1500.

[sstaurus]

Sadly the dirtball operations in the states are hurting right now you know the type that pay $15000 for an FO so they may start poaching instructors from Canada with the magic 1500.

Again, how would they be able to do that? See post above.

And you can rest assured that the US pilot unions will fight any allowance for foreign pilot labour tooth and nail.

Pity that doesn't happen here too.

[Kapitanov]

I just saw on PilotCareerCenter that 10 regional careers are looking for First Officers with the new requirement of 1500 hours. Wow, that is clearly a lot and I am pretty sure they won't be able to fill all the vacant positions, so the pay WILL have to raise somehow and someday to attract more people right? Nobody will want to work again for peanuts after at least two years in the industry to get the 1500 hours mark?

[teacher]

I'm not able to copy and paste the article but here's the link. How much of this is real and how much manufactured I don't know.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ge-395806/

[Stinky]

Has a single one of these regionals attempted to combat this so called shortage with wage increases? Nope, they've actually been reducing wages so they can unercut one another in order to secure more airplanes.

[sstaurus]

Let's hope the FAA doesn't cave to the whining companies and go back on the new rules!

[Gino Under]

Updated with a modified headline, and comments from American, Republic and United

Republic Airways will remove 27 regional jets with up to 50 seats in 2014, as a lack of qualified pilots forces it to reduce its fleet and analysts say could put its Bombardier CSeries order in jeopardy.

The aircraft in question are 15 Embraer ERJ-140s with 44 seats operating for American Airlines and 12 Embraer ERJ-145s with 50 seats operating for United Airlines, according to an investor update today. The aircraft will exit the Indianapolis-based regional carrier’s fleet by the third quarter.

Removing the aircraft is expected to reduce 2014 revenues by $18 million to $22 million, says Republic.

The “significant reduction in qualified pilots who meet the congressionally mandated 1,500 hour pilot experience rule” is behind the decision to remove the aircraft, the airline says.

The new US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) flight and duty regulations went into force on 4 January. In addition to the new 1,500 hour experience requirement – it was previously 250 hours - they also include duty time restrictions, which JetBlue Airways cited as a reason for the temporary grounding of its operations in the northeastern USA following a snowstorm in January.

“We continue to believe the regional airlines will struggle to find pilots due to the new pilot rules,” says Helane Becker, an analyst at Cowen Securities, in a report today. “As a result of the limited pilot availability we expect to see reduced flying by the regional carriers and pilot wages increase.”

If pilot hiring remains an issue for Republic, she says that the airline could “potentially cancel, without penalty” its order for 40 CS300 aircraft.

Republic says that the lack of qualified pilots has no impact on its CSeries order.

The carrier and its pilots union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT), also remain in protracted contract negotiations, following the rejection of the airline's last, best and final offer in March 2013. Wayne Heller, chief operating officer of Republic, said in November 2013 that there was only a "remote possibility" of new talks in 2014 due to the US National Mediation Board's “case load and budgetary constraints”.

Republic anticipates extending 14 ERJ-145 aircraft on a fixed-fee basis whose contracts expire in 2014, according to the investor update. These are in addition to the 27 aircraft that it will remove.

The additional aircraft likely operate for Delta Air Lines, which is Republic’s only remaining ERJ-145 operation after American and United.

The ERJ-140 and ERJ-145 removal could occur faster than American and United expected. At the former, Republic plans to remove eight ERJ-140s in the first quarter, five in the second and two in the third, according to its fleet plan.

However, American only planned to reduce its ERJ-140 fleet by five aircraft in the first quarter, nine in the second, eight in the third and three in the fourth, according to its 28 January fleet plan. These numbers also include planned retirements from its Envoy subsidiary fleet.

The mainline carrier says that it is still assessing the impact but does not expect any change to the markets they serve.

Republic will take delivery of 25 76-seat Embraer 175s under contract for American in 2014.

The regional carrier plans to remove all of the 12 ERJ-145s that it flies for United in the first quarter, according to its fleet plan. However, the Chicago-based mainline carrier included no ERJ-145 retirements during the first or second quarters, 16 in the third and nine in the fourth, in its fleet plan on 23 January.

United says that the aircraft are included in the flight reductions at its Cleveland hub, which were announced on 1 February. The cuts begin in April.

[sanjet]

Way to spin those route cuts! I guess there's an inherent message being sent to congress, to blame pilot shortage on a route cut is just pure non-sense!!!! If it made money, it would have continued!

Let's hope the FAA doesn't cave to the whining companies and go back on the new rules!

Amen!!

[Flyerboy]

Right on! Sanjet!.........You hit it right on the nail!

[Gino Under]

So, if the Regional carrier reduces its fleet the Mainline carrier has to continue offering the services, assuming they're profitable? What? Like replace the Embraers with B737s? That doesn't make sense. Any money the route might make with regional jets would evaporate with a Boeing. That's why you have regional jets.
To blame pilot shortages for route cuts seems to be a factual reality. (American Eagle offering a $5,000.00 signing bonus for new hires must have nothing to do with a pilot shortage)
The airline industry sounded the alarm on this when the 1500 hour requirement was simply a proposal.
Remember the pilot naysayers who said the pilot shortage was a myth???

I guess the route cuts being blamed on a pilot shortage is a myth too, huh?
Please. Pay attention.

Gino Under