Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[CpnCrunch]

it would definitely need to be someone with intimate knowledge of a 777 to shutoff the Xpdr and ACARS.

Why couldn't a fire do those things? Maybe not even a fire but something running way hotter than it should and slowly damaging the electrical system.

LnS.

In that case why did they not just land at the nearest airport?

[lownslow]

Beats me, maybe it wasn't until they left their nav and comm systems that they realized they had a problem. I don't know enough about the systems layout on a 777 to come up with a full scenario and likely never will.

LnS.

[AirFrame]

-ACARS was "switched off" (his words) first, then shortly thereafter the transponder was also switched off;

Interesting... Terrorists enter cockpit, tell pilot to turn off transponder, but quick-thinking pilot turns off ACARS instead... Hoping to trick them?

I still think that the 4-6 hours of nothing before it goes down is indicative of a depressurization and incapacitation of the pilots, crew, and passengers.

[GyvAir]

Caravan last year, straight line out over Hudson Bay for 4 or 5 hours. Strange behaviour happens.

[sstaurus]

Why would there even be a pilot-accessible switch to turn the ACARS off? I can't think of a reason it would need to be turned off, but I'm not familiar with everything the system does. Even if it's sending erroneous info to the ground, does that affect them in flight?

[GyvAir]

Thanks, spaner... I hope you didn't miss breakfast working on that!

From another site:

The last ping recorded by satellite is near the bolded black line, and the red ellipse is roughly the range limit from last radio contact before running out of fuel. Colored dots represent runways.

Credit to the talented Nrg800.

[complexintentions]

There are times when you have to reset the system, or log off one FIR to log onto another. There's no switch per se to turn the ACARS off, no doubt you could remove power somehow by pulling a breaker but that's not really the system design. You don't really turn the ACARS "off" or "on", you can reset the whole system, or log on or log off of the CPDLC with settings in a software sub-menu. ACARS is really a collection of systems, the pilot comms are separate from the telemetry being sent by the engines. (Which is why they have any idea at all MH370 wasn't in a million pieces hours later, when Inmarsat received traffic on their satellites from the engines). When the Malaysian PM briefs that the ACARS was "switched off" I think it's safe to say the meaning is that someone logged off the datalink. And then shortly thereafter, turned the transponder off. In other words, went willfully off comms. Whether by choice or under duress, and with what motives...? These are the questions. As well as where the feck ARE they!

I'm not sure why speculation about it being crew incapacitation due to fire or depressurization continues? That would mean someone killed the datalink, turned off the transponder, altered course...and then unluckily, they had a depressurization event and flew until they ran out of fuel or a fire that prevented them from calling a Mayday? Come on. And there are so many comm systems on the B777 (3x VHF, 2x HF, 2x Satellite, transponder, datalink) that the idea that some creeping electrical issue took out their systems one by one before they had time to send a single distress call via ANY means in a high-traffic area is...unlikely.

I am no aviation expert nor trained accident investigator. However I am current flying the B777 in this part of the world (among many others) FWIW. I do have a passing knowledge of the systems and capabilities.

[ahramin]

That would make sense complexintentions. If the ATSU breakers had been pulled shutting off all ACARS communication, they would not have got the engine monitoring pings. Far more likely the ACARS was still working but the ADS-C and CPDLC were disconnected, then the transponder and ADS-B were turned off with the switch.

Trying to disable all ACARS systems from the flight deck would need much more technical knowledge than just turning off the FANS and the transponder.

[89rs]

I'm not sure why speculation about it being crew incapacitation due to fire or depressurization continues? That would mean someone killed the datalink, turned off the transponder, altered course...and then unluckily, they had a depressurization event and flew until they ran out of fuel or a fire that prevented them from calling a Mayday? Come on. And there are so many comm systems on the B777 (3x VHF, 2x HF, 2x Satellite, transponder, datalink) that the idea that some creeping electrical issue took out their systems one by one before they had time to send a single distress call via ANY means in a high-traffic area is...unlikely.

Agreed. At this point in time, logic points to aviation-savvy hijackers or a rogue crew, and one of those options is far fetched.

[goldeneagle]

I maintain my assertion from earlier that what Michael McKay saw was the planet Jupiter appearing and disappearing from behind a distant cloud.

Seems logical to me, I've done searches near Hudson Bay, really dark and no horizon, spotters more than once have wanted to chase a planet thinking it was a camp fire. They can be really bright when there are no lights around b

An irridium flare would fit his description even better than Jupiter. It's not a big stretch, but I haven't taken the time/effort to dig out possible flares at that location and time.

[pdw]

If what the oil rig personnel saw truly was this plane on fire for 10-15 seconds, is it just cabin oxygen feeding the fire at 35000ft while supply lasted ? ... So then climbing higher to 45,000 ft in the turn-back would also reduce oxygen supply to any lingering fire in a ruptured cargo hold.

I read some early news article reporting Vietnam control asked the plane ahead to try to make contact on the emergency frequency but just heard mumbling. Is that possible if a pilot's voice gets muffled when speaking from behind the quick donning mask ?

[Old fella]

There are times when you have to reset the system, or log off one FIR to log onto another. There's no switch per se to turn the ACARS off, no doubt you could remove power somehow by pulling a breaker but that's not really the system design. You don't really turn the ACARS "off" or "on", you can reset the whole system, or log on or log off of the CPDLC with settings in a software sub-menu. ACARS is really a collection of systems, the pilot comms are separate from the telemetry being sent by the engines. (Which is why they have any idea at all MH370 wasn't in a million pieces hours later, when Inmarsat received traffic on their satellites from the engines). When the Malaysian PM briefs that the ACARS was "switched off" I think it's safe to say the meaning is that someone logged off the datalink. And then shortly thereafter, turned the transponder off. In other words, went willfully off comms. Whether by choice or under duress, and with what motives...? These are the questions. As well as where the feck ARE they!

I'm not sure why speculation about it being crew incapacitation due to fire or depressurization continues? That would mean someone killed the datalink, turned off the transponder, altered course...and then unluckily, they had a depressurization event and flew until they ran out of fuel or a fire that prevented them from calling a Mayday? Come on. And there are so many comm systems on the B777 (3x VHF, 2x HF, 2x Satellite, transponder, datalink) that the idea that some creeping electrical issue took out their systems one by one before they had time to send a single distress call via ANY means in a high-traffic area is...unlikely.

I am no aviation expert nor trained accident investigator. However I am current flying the B777 in this part of the world (among many others) FWIW. I do have a passing knowledge of the systems and capabilities.

I will certainly stipulate to your knowledge and background on this ac type and airline operations. Would it be presumptuous to assume somebody of equal background would be required to accomplish what has been indicated in the latest scenario from media reports

[co-joe]

Why would there even be a pilot-accessible switch to turn the ACARS off? ...

I don't think there is. From the few of the 200+ pages I read on Pprune, you'd need to dissassemble some stuff either with the correct tools or possibly with an axe. There's also a way into the avionics bay involving a trip through a hatch in the floor in the cabin under the carpet. Both would require some pretty in depth knowledge of ac systems. Scary stuff.

...
My theory is that the aircraft was taken over via satellite and "droned" to its final destination.

Why and by whom, you may well ask? Besides the US, who else has the technology to achieve such an easy feat?

I put my money on Vladimir, diverting the world's attention from his pathetic attempt to recobble the old Empire piece by piece to follow in the footsteps of Napoleon, Benito, and Adolph.

Far fetched ? Not in the world I live in.

Pass the Largactil...Please

I dunno about the drone thing but with 8 hours of fuel, roughly 5 after the last known position, and at FL450 (according to CBC) just about anywhere on that side of the world is a possible landing site isn't it? Somalia maybe? They steal huge ships for money all the time, why not a 777? I have to admit I first thought of dirka dirka-stan, but Putin has motive. Hollywood types try to re-direct the worlds eyes all the time. Janet jacksons wardrobe malfunction perfectly timed while her whacko brother was being charged as a pedofile comes to mind. Wag the dog stuff. Once again, scary, but it allows hope that the pax are alive somewhere and a ransome may bring them back. Lets hope.

[B52]

Thanks to those who have posted common sense.

It appears that most of the worlds journalists and managers of the search have failed to do any "air of reality"checks with this story. The searchers have failed to think logically with the exception of the Chinese Government and the Vietnamese Government who have done an incredible job and who both deserve an honourable mention for their accurate reporting.

The Transponder and Flight Data STOPPED indicating a catastrophic explosion. The WRECKAGE DEBRIS was repeatedly observed, photographed and provided to searchers. Boats arriving could not find it. Those Photographs did not LIE, they were not fabricated. They are REAL EVIDENCE.

Oil Rig Worker Michael McKay was the First and Only Eye Witness to the explosion and his "Bearing confirms that it was along the flight path near where the Transponder Stopped. 

The Satelite "PINGING" by Imarasat shows it ENDED in the same area as where the Transponder Stopped.

The problem is, Imarsat information has got the TIME wrong, it was NOT AFTER the accident time but AT the accident time the last reported "PING" was heard. 

There appears to be a miscalculation of time or , the FL MH370 flew in circles in the same area for 7.5 hours and then crashed in the same area. 

Imarsat is not showing an accurate map. The map shown is misleading and fails to allow for known errors that if allowed for place the last signal in the same area.

The Primary radar is dubious, and does not show clear evidence to support any flight away from the last known position.

There is NO evidence to support a highjacking.

Any search manager should take a close look at that Imarsat informatio, demand to see video or stills of that primary radar BEFORE assuming the "Highjack" theory and or wasting many millions of dollars searching in any area OTHER THAN 

an Underwater search in the Immediate area after the transponder stopped.

At around 500 Knots, the debris will have travelled about 5 miles forward of the last known position along the Planned Flight Path and it is there that the heavy wreckage will be found. 

The floating Debris has moved at about 50 miles a day and some maritime science needs to be used to determine from wind and currents since the crash time as to where that debris might be now. 

The world owes an apology to the Governments of China and Vietnam for their incredible work to date and for the arrogance of the west to ignore their vital evidence.

Dito for Michael McKay who is the Sole Witness to this mid-air explosion.

The US navy needs to take its own appraisal of the above information and start an

underwater search centered on 5 nm ahead of the last known Transponder position on the Flight Path Track.

Image of debris

http://avherald.com/img/malaysia_b772_9 ... t_1800.jpg

Imarsat image of range of error

[ditar]

An irridium flare would fit his description even better than Jupiter. It's not a big stretch, but I haven't taken the time/effort to dig out possible flares at that location and time.

That's an interesting idea, goldeneagle, one that I didn't consider. I checked it out and it doesn't look like there were any iridium flares matching that position at that time. The only two visible that day from that location are the following:

UTC | Magnitude | Altitude | Azimuth
2014-03-07 12:15:13.000Z | -2.2 | 41 | 024
2014-03-07 23:57:39.000Z | -3.3 | 43 | 126

[boeingboy]

B52,
You are losing all credibility with me. You seem to be nothing more than some consipiracy theorist, those people make up some situation that is made up out of there own ignorance. Any evidence to the contrary is dismissed right away or ignored completely.

The 3 different sightings of debris are hundreds and hundreds of miles apart and in different directions, in the most polluted waters in the world.

Your "witness" said the fire was 15 secs at altitude and the "plane" was in one piece. He never saw anything impact the surface. His position was almost 200 miles east of the last known position. Even at 50 miles away - no one could tell it was a plane.

Debris would travel a lot more than 5 miles if it did break up, and there would still be tons of it floating around.

There is very strong evidence to suggest the plane did fly for hours and that it was navigated by a skilled person during that time.


Here is my new theory.

Mr B52 joins 6 months ago and blends in to the rest of the Avcanada people but is really part of the group that is behind this. When events start taking place that authorities start closing in on the plane, his friends beg him to buy them more time. Comes on the internet insisting everyone else is wrong and we should look here. Stop waisting money he begs and go look over here.

If any investigators are looking through these forums - maybe start with B52?

Now tell me why this is no less plausible than anything else?

[boeingboy]

Complex,
I think in simple mans terms - which is what investigators are saying, that ACARS could be "turned off"

At least on the older Boeings - ACARS runs through Comm 3. If comm 3 was turned off or disabled, that would keep the system from either sending or receiving info. I remember we could not MEL comm 3 on most ships as it would disable the ACARs system.

I assume this is the same on the 777?

[indieadventurer]

Here is my new theory.

Mr B52 joins 6 months ago and blends in to the rest of the Avcanada people but is really part of the group that is behind this. When events start taking place that authorities start closing in on the plane, his friends beg him to buy them more time. Comes on the internet insisting everyone else is wrong and we should look here. Stop waisting money he begs and go look over here.

If any investigators are looking through these forums - maybe start with B52?

Now tell me why this is no less plausible than anything else?

+1

[Diadem]

Wow. The nutters are really out in force now. Russia somehow hijacked the plane through satellites using technology that doesn't exist. Somebody tried to fly the plane into an aircraft carrier at night without knowing where the carrier was (it's not like their locations are made publicly available) and the plane was shot down; that would be like flying across Canada to try to hit a specific field without knowing where that field was in the first place, and it was also moving around while you were en route. Even if they weren't trying to hit the carrier, apparently the USN would have shot them down anyway, because they have a tendency to fire wildly at unknown radar targets flying at 35000 feet; there's absolutely, definitely a correlation between an Iranian airliner being shot down while flying directly over an American naval ship that was sitting just outside of Iranian waters in the middle of the Iran-Iraq War, and a ship sitting in international waters nowhere near a hostile county blazing away into busy international air routes because they got a PSR return without a corresponding transponder code. Of course it's all some grand conspiracy, and not only are the searchers totally incompetent while anonymous internet posters know exactly where to look, but the governments of China and Vietnam are the only reliable sources of information! I say we take B52 and all the other wackos, put them in a row boat in the South China Sea, and let them prove whether their hypotheses are true.

[flyinthebug]

B52...Why are you ignoring all the evidence?? That is a serious question? You say that the "pinging" stopped at the same moment that mode c was shut off. That is simply not true. How can you ignore the FAA and several others authorities (Rolls Royce, Malaysian Prime Minister, Boeing etc) TELLING us that the engines were making power for as long as 7 hours after mode c was turned off? Its published, on record, and yet you refuse to accept it as fact? I honestly don't understand how you can take this position with this mysterious disappearance of a B777.

Although the comical account of you trying to divert our attention to buy some time for the guy in the cave is entertaining, I do believe you are trolling now, or simply just ignorant. I hope its not the latter, but either options are equally making you look foolish. There is NO debris anywhere near where you claim the plane may have met her fate. None, zero, nothing. The engines were making power for 7 hours after the transponder was turned off/failed/whatever. That isn't speculation, it is confirmed fact, not a miscalculation of time.

Another fact that is largely missed in all this discussion is the lives of 239 people and the roller coaster of emotions their families must be on. I cant imagine how painful this must be for people not knowing whether to begin grieving or hold out hope that their loved ones are being held in a hanger somewhere against their will. Who knows at this point, but to continue to try to ignore/deflect the truth and facts as they are being presented, really does make me wonder what your ulterior motives are?

[ross1]

Hi Diadem... "an aircraft carrier at night without knowing where the carrier was (it's not like their locations are made publicly available) " ...any nearby fishing boat with a GPS could tell you.

..."targets flying at 35000 feet" ....world trade center...approx. 1700ft.



....and remember... this was done with a couple of box cutters...


" blazing away into busy international air routes because they got a PSR return without a corresponding transponder code. "

I assume they'd have a closer look first...



A "nutter"... been called a lot worse and I hope I'm wrong...Have a look at PPRUNE...200plus pages of everything from selling the cargo on Gilligan's Island to Alien abduction..... but just curious as to why the question hasn't been raised.

RB

[GGCC]

[quote="boeingboy"]B52,You seem to be nothing more than some consipiracy theorist, those people make up some situation that is made up out of there own ignorance. Any evidence to the contrary is dismissed right away or ignored completely.
You are losing all credibility with me./[quote]

He is with me as well because what he posted above was posted word for word in the PPRuNe Forums 17 hours ago.....

So who is Zoomin who? (as the song goes)

[pdw]

There is NO debris anywhere near where you claim the plane may have met her fate. None, zero, nothing. The engines were making power for 7 hours after the transponder was turned off/failed/whatever.

If flames seen from the infamous oil rig are found to be possibly from this plane then she pretty much "met her fate" right there, except that the front part would still have aileron control and the engine power for continuing flight as is now being shown.

Will a fire intensity of that magnitude coming from a fuselage, as the one reported here from "50-70km" away in that clear night sky, have left much chance for elevator controls to the rear of the airframe involved ? Apparently the door is not yet closed on this possibility.

Having just been trimmed out at 35K (the previous flightaware data given) provides the chance that this aircraft's surviving engine power might have well been able to hold a stable pitch axis there, perhaps only gaining altitude to "45,000ft" with the necessary power increase after/during the turn-back toward the first waypoint set shortly before incapacitation ... leading to that "uneven descent to 23,000ft" on account of the stall stickshaker. Not much debris to find there if only very few and very small pieces are lost at the turnaround location.

[GyvAir]

PDW, you (and others) sure like to take the most tenuous bits of information and stitch, stretch and patch them together into the most interesting theories!

Check out the actual distances involved here:



(I haven't verified any of the figures given in the above map.)

[pdw]

Sure, the Chinese image 2-4 days later might still be determined a piece that fell off the plane ... who knows.

Mackay's email gave water-current and winds (both out of the northeast) so that a 300km drift was possible for that piece ... whatever it was. The distance estimate from his oil rig may well be accurate, just that the email fell on deaf ears until 3 days later ... lots of drift towards southeast.