Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[Gino Under]

Yeah.
And between this aircraft's last known position and that unknown airfield of Putin's not one country it supposedly overflew to get there thought its sudden appearance in their airspace was worth intercepting or questioning over flight authorization?

...you're probably right. Somebody in Russia needs a few bucks so they spent millions to commander a 777 from an unsuspecting nation to strip it down and sell it for parts. I love it.

Finally an answer. We'll go with that.

Gino Under

[B52]

Lots of good posts and if you think I'm wrong,
I welcome any comments.

For example, the Cathay Pacific flight two days later observed DEBRIS
about 100 miles away from the last known transponder signal.

The Sea Currents in that area can move ant-clockwise around the
bottom of Vietnam, coincidentally at around 5o miles a day.
Two days at 50 miles a day fits in.

To take a practical approach.
Most similar accidents the wreckage is found a few miles further
along track than the last transponder signal.

This 777 was at 35,000 so I'd add Five Miles and say that is a good starting point
for a SONAR search.

Let's put it this way.

It is the ONLY place in the world, that has a chance in hell of having the wreckage based on
just ONE credible and reliable witness.

None of the other theories hold any substance.

I would like to hear feedback on the probability of
INMarsat getting the time wrong on the pings.

And on the area of the pings.

From my look at it, it appears that the circle of where it was allegedly heard
is right over that last transponder signal , but its a very large area
along an ARC from the Satellite but alludes that it could not have
come from directly over the site of the last transponder signal.


Now the press have gone mad with theories and delusions of
Government officials that includes criminal investigations into the pilots?

Can anyone suggest a more likely location for a Sonar Search?

I'd like to know if I'm the only one with this view.

[TheCheez]

B52
I agree with you that it's in the ocean somewhere and all the conspiracy type theories are out there. I think in time it will be made public just how horrible Malaysian SAR capabilities and management have been, and they're going to spend years trying to find a black box for this jet. Even the debris at this point is hundreds of miles from wherever it crashed. They haven't found it yet because of misinformation and incompetence.

[AuxBatOn]

Reports suggest the aircraft climbed to 45000 ft thn descended to 23000 then possibly climbed again to 30000 ft. If the transponder was turned off, by all reported accounts, then where would the altitude information be coming from. There is a suggestion the ACARS continued to "ping" for several hours. Does ACARS provide altitude reporting? Didn't think so but I have no personal knowledge one way or the other.

You really think you need a transponder to know altitude?

Primary radars have height finding capabilities... By the sounds of it, a track was picked up by military (primary) radars...

[Old fella]

Ah........ the movie will be a good one with a 2 min segment of straight and level inverted flight..........

[ross1]

Hi Diadem....not looking for any trouble here...still just wondering why no one has asked the military if this "diversion" may have been a threat to assets or facilities in the Indian Ocean. It seems that a home computer flightsim and a sign off phrase are more important news.

But since you asked.."Besides, how would that info be transmitted to an aircraft flying over the Indian Ocean from a boat with no corresponding aviation communication equipment?"...here's a fictitious phone call. "hello?...yeah its me. Yeah. That big boat you were asking about...yeah, that one...we just saw it dock at Diego. Yeah, really! Looks like it'll be there for a few days. No...no problem. Just glad I got hold of you before you left. Have a good flight. "

And I'm not sure about what you mean here...." I was talking about the hypothesis that the plane was shot down by the USN while in cruise at 35000 feet, which is totally unrelated to a hijacking"....I don't think that's what I suggested when I described the scenario of "low alt, high speed, in the dark". If this was ever the case and all other means failed...what would you say is the best,last resort?

"The idea that the US military destroyed an airliner in international airspace over the ocean with nothing around because it didn't have a transponder code is patently ridiculous.".....now I could be mistaken here but except for the "international airspace" part...it's been done.

And to Gino... Great info! (which also doesn't seem to make the news)...thank you.

best to all
RB

[B52]

I don't about anyone else but I'm convinced the entire world has gone insane and cannot think
logically regarding MH370

Take this NO Data was received past 17:21:03 Last Position according to wiki is 6°55′15″N 103°34′43″
Then there is talk that it lost 5,000 ft in 30 seconds.
Did that come from the Transponder? I can't find that information anywhere. I'm guessing someone here has
done that already.

There are four Factual bits of evidence towards a Catastrophic Disintegration at that last Transponder burst.

A. The Vietnamese flight photographs look like 777 debris.
B. Chinese Satellite pics.
C. Cathay Pacific observation.
D. Mike McKay's observation from the Oil Rig, corroborates the bearing.

Why is it that not even an Aircraft with a mag sensor has flown over the route near the surface.
Surely this would be step one.

Why is it that no boat with a sonar search equip has not spent some time looking at the bottom
say Five miles along flight plan track?

Then, there is those "PINGS" and it is a hell of a contradiction.
Either all the above evidence is nonsense and Rolls Royce / Inmarsat is correct

OR
those PINGS were recorded at a time difference that is, sent BEFORE the last transponder signal?


I don't believe any of the Primary Radar info as it is does not add up.
There is no crew or passenger information to lead in any other direction but
a Catastrophic Disintegration.


Canyone explain how Rolls Royce and or Inmarsat might have previously given similar information
but with a wrong time difference?

I suspect that the pings occurred but that it was a simple time error.

Then there is that "Curve" where the Pings were heard. It claims to cut out over
the area of the last transmission but is north and south.

If that is correct, is it possible that Rolls Royce even have their date wrong for the transmission?

I look at the evidence and is seems to yell out that it was a Catastrophic Disintegration
at about that last transponder reply.

[AirFrame]

There are four Factual bits of evidence towards a Catastrophic Disintegration at that last Transponder burst.

Hardly.

A. The Vietnamese flight photographs look like 777 debris.
B. Chinese Satellite pics.
C. Cathay Pacific observation.
D. Mike McKay's observation from the Oil Rig, corroborates the bearing.

A. Are you familiar with what 777 debris looks like? You must be the only one... Isn't this the first one to crash?
B. There have been reports that the area was investigated and no debris was found. Seems unlikely that they'd miss it?
C. Was it Cathay Pacific that was able to raise a reply on the radio that was mumbled/garbled? That better supports my decompression theory than a disintegration?
D. One person's report of something he saw that may or may not have even been an airplane. At that range, it would be impossible to tell.

Why is it that not even an Aircraft with a mag sensor has flown over the route near the surface.

Do we know one hasn't? Factually? How?

There is no ... information to lead in any other direction but a Catastrophic Disintegration.

And yet the US has deployed expensive military vessels to search for the flight's wreckage in the Indian Ocean. Why?

[cncpc]

Jesus, the LooLas really come out of the woodwork in something like this.

[B52]

If you don't like my posts don't comment on them.

[boeingboy]

I don't believe any of the Primary Radar info as it is does not add up.

Why? Because it doesn't fit your theory?
It was tracked crossing the country and navigating to 3 waypoints before they lost it as it flew out of range.

Again - the photographed debris could have been anything. Do you know how much crap is floating out there? TONS? and none of it is aircraft (Im talking about other than POSSIBLY this airplane).To put it mildly - the oil rig guy doesn't know what he saw - and yet you claim he saw not just a plane - but this very one when it was well over a 100 km away??? at night??? No way.

BTW - You still haven't told me how the debris - if it did break up where you say - could be 100's of km in opposite directions at the same time. The currents would have carried it all together (roughly).

[GyvAir]

B52: There is a poster on pprune who has a theory related to yours. He points out that the calculated distance from the Inmarsat satellite (40 degrees from horizontal?) of the last ping puts the arc directly through the area that the Cathay Pacific crew reported seeing a debris field. His theory is that the pinging was somehow coming from the wreckage, rather than from an intact aircraft.

Map showing fuel range and last ping arc: http://i.imgur.com/Iwa6Ali.jpg

I've seen it reported repeatedly the calculated distance from the satellite of the last ping. I haven't seen any report of calculated distances for any of the other pings though. Anybody?

[boeingboy]

The world owes an apology to the Governments of China and Vietnam for their incredible work to date and for the arrogance of the west to ignore their vital evidence.

Fine - here are the words quoted from your hero.

On Mar 15th 2014 Malaysia's Prime Minister stated in a press conference: "based on new satellite communication we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off." Movements of the aircraft until the aircraft left Malaysia's primary radar coverage were consistent with deliberate action by someone on the aircraft. The primary radar target, so far believed but not confirmed to be MH-370, could today be identified as MH-370 with the help of new data received from the satellite data provider. The aircraft could have flown on for 7 hours, the last trace of the aircraft was identified at 08:11L (00:11Z Mar 8th). "Due to the type of satellite data we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with the satellite." However, the investigation was able to determine that the last communication was in one of two corridors: "the northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand or the southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to Southern Indian Ocean." The investigation team is working to further refine the information. The search in the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand has been ended. "In view of this latest development the Malaysian Authorities have refocussed their investigation into the crew and passengers on board. Despite media reports, that the plane was hijacked, I wish to be very clear we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused MH-370 to deviate from its original flight path."

[boeingboy]

His theory is that the pinging was somehow coming from the wreckage, rather than from an intact aircraft.

That is not possible as you need electrical power from the aircraft to do that.

Will someone please give me a factual reference that that was the last ping? (see above post)

[GyvAir]

His theory, not mine.
Unless the plane was so gently wrecked as to keep the wiring harness intact between the Inmarsat unit and the ship's battery as well as the antenna, or the Inmarsat unit had an independent battery that allowed it to keep pinging for a while and enough transmission power to be heard with no antenna connected... either way, I don't buy it.

a factual reference

I personally haven't seen anything at all reported on this story that I would consider to be factual reference. There seem to be inconsistencies and unexplained blanks in every report going whether coming from “anonymous sources” or leaders of nations.

[ourkid2000]

B52:

I have to say that while I'm interested in your theory that the aircraft crashed near the area of last communication and the possibility is as likely as any other, you're coming across like a total psychopath on here. I've happened across your comments on other websites and you seem quite obsessed. If you're ultimately proven wrong, you will really look like a fool.

I'm thinking of starting a drinking game.......every time you mention Michael McKay, everyone take a drink. Anyways, chill out......stay sane.

[AirFrame]

If you don't like my posts don't comment on them.

Sorry, this is an anonymous forum on the Internet. That's what they're for.

[complexintentions]

wow. I go on one longhaul flight and in the interim two pages of speculation get filled up. I can see how being an investigator must suck, with just the sheer amount of noise you have to filter out.

boeingboy (and a PM in my Inbox) mention that ACARS uses the 3rd VHF transceiver, which is the Comm 3, or referred to as as Centre Comm in our company (we use L, R, and C). That is true, and ACARS data is usually sent via VHF as the first choice of radio due to cost. However, if for some reason the centre comm is not available (out of VHF range or you are using it for voice comms, etc) then the system automatically shifts the broadcast of ACARS data over to an HF radio if that is available, or - more likely - satcom. The airline sets the schedule and priority of this, but this is pretty standard. The point is, removing power from the Centre Comm would not "turn off" ACARS. I still believe that the reference to "turned off" the ACARS is a reference to someone on the flight terminating their CPDLC connection.

My takeaway from the briefing was not really a discussion of the finer points of how a datalink connection can be terminated, however. The crucial point was that the authorities believe that the termination of comms (the ACARS and transponder) was WILLFUL. While this whole situation is extremely short of facts and long on wild theories, there are a few points that seem to be agreed upon. And those do overwhelming point to deliberate actions, not an accident.

Both the sequence and timing of the comm loss fall into the "that's how I'd do it" school of thought. If I WANTED to get "lost", I would certainly time it on an FIR handoff, to maximize the time before one of the controlling agencies realized that no one was talking to me. That would also indicate a high degree of planning.

I mean no disrespect, but - given the facts as reported - trying to connect the dots to old ADIRU or autopilot issues is complete grasping at straws and more suited to clueless journalists filling space, than an aviation community. Modern aircraft are highly computer driven and have gone through several software revisions (Boeing calls them Blockpoints) since 2005. Like any software, each revision solves a bunch of bugs, adds some new features - and usually adds a couple new bugs! For example, the latest version (Blockpoint 16) does have a known issue, a few reported cases of uncommanded turns in LNAV. No drama, the correction is simply to engage HDG/TRK mode, correct the course, re-engage LNAV. We ARE still pilots, after all, and even if the autopilots are holding the flight controls in the correct places, WE are still flying the autopilots! (The engineers are aware of it, and it'll be corrected in Blockpoint 17). The point is, bringing up problems long since corrected only muddies the water. Such issues are a red herring to MH370, when it seems beyond dispute that there are other events that have been ruled deliberate and yes, ARE a lot more sinister in implication.

I really am baffled by the continued insistence on clinging to theories that aren't really supported by evidence. Granted, that "evidence" is only as presented in media and by those who of COURSE have their own agendas. But unlike B52 I make no wild claims of talking with those on the ground firsthand, I am basing my own conjecture on what has been presented and my own experience. I have not seen any confirmed report of verified MH370 wreckage. None of the "debris trails" or "oil slicks" have been MH370. But we do seem fairly certain about the deliberate (and thus far successful, I might add) attempts of MH370 to not be seen or found.

A note on the "stolen cargo" theories. In the better part of a decade of international flying out of the Middle East, I have COUNTLESS times received NOTOC's listing 100's of kilos of gold bars, banknotes, diamonds, and the like being carried in the hold. We make our usual little joke about diverting to Aruba and carry on. Once we had a gent who had paid for a second J seat for his large suitcase to be belted into, for a Tehran flight. Apparently, a pretty common way to move cash around the sanctions. So if MH370 was a simple robbery, given how common it is to have massive amounts of valuables on board, why this flight in particular? I consider this scenario highly unlikely as well.

One good point that has been raised a couple of times and to my knowledge, not answered - what WAS the range of the flight, i.e. what was the actual fuel uplift? A poster asked if the potential range a B777-200ER could be a lot longer than the scheduled flight, and the answer is certainly yes. Also, while I cannot speak to MAS policy, it is absolutely within the captain's authority to add more fuel to the flight plan, and with that pax load and planned flight they would have had plenty of payload room to take more fuel if desired. I'd be interested to know if the fuel uplift matched the planned flight.

[CpnCrunch]

Interesting theory here:

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/ ... sia68-sq68

He's saying that another 777 had the exact same track as the one that showed up on radar. His theory is that flight 370 snuck in behind it, so that it would remain undetected. I think that's a bit of a stretch, although if his analysis is correct it does bring up a few possibilities. Most likely would be that the military radar just picked up a completely different plane and flight 370 is somewhere else completely. Assuming that the satellite transceiver did actually remain on for hours afterwards, that would mean that the plane either flew on autopilot with the crew unconscious until it ran out of fuel, or else they managed to land it somewhere gently enough that the power remained on to the satellite transceiver for hours afterwards. (Unfortunately I think the second possibility is pretty unlikely).

[Captain S itmagnet]

I have yet to this addressed in any mainstream media or here...

I have checked Malaysia Airlines website for the features of their IFE system and there is no mention of having a "moving map" like AC's IFE system offers. If this system was in place, and still active, and the passengers were still "aware" of their surroundings, someone must have noticed a diversion if such a thing occurred. Whether they could have done anything will remain unknown for some time of course.
Anyone here either a past traveller on the carrier or familiar with the system? I would assume that such a feature is tied to the plane's GPS, my question is could it be disabled in flight? I know that the whole IFE can be shut down, rebooted etc.

[lownslow]

As usual, the simplest answer turns out to be the correct one.


LnS.

[C-FABH]

I have yet to this addressed in any mainstream media or here...

I have checked Malaysia Airlines website for the features of their IFE system and there is no mention of having a "moving map" like AC's IFE system offers. If this system was in place, and still active, and the passengers were still "aware" of their surroundings, someone must have noticed a diversion if such a thing occurred. Whether they could have done anything will remain unknown for some time of course.
Anyone here either a past traveller on the carrier or familiar with the system? I would assume that such a feature is tied to the plane's GPS, my question is could it be disabled in flight? I know that the whole IFE can be shut down, rebooted etc.

A question running through my head as well. If the MH seatback IFE is equipped with a moving map, surely the cabin crew and pax would have caught on to such a significant course deviation - unless the IFE was intentionally disabled, or some other explanation was offered.

[kev994]

The door is locked and they're over the middle of the ocean. Even if the breaker wasn't pulled with the rest of them what are the pax going to do about it?

[Mig29]

Putin involved in this mystery????? Wow, some of you people gotta get some fresh air or switch your default news channel But being a forum, you are entitled to your opinion.

I wish I'm wrong, but the aircraft is most likely somewhere on the bottom of the sea......either because of mechanical failure or sabotage. In today's world when everyone knows what you had for lunch 5 years ago, and have a picture to prove it, I find it hard to believe that with all the technology and intelligent minds out there, they couldn't trace the last position and find this airplane.

But the more and more media propagate all the nonsense and sensational crap then I'm afraid the truth is drifting away as the days go by...

[Gino Under]

complexintentions

Would you share the evidence you have regarding ADIRUs. I'm accumulating lots of really good info since I'm the one postulating that the automation "might" have lead to a loss of control event due to another possible ADIRU fault. From what I've learned about ADIRUs I'd at least be thinking about it as a possibility rather than go over some of the other theories out there.

I have no doubt many of us share a common core of experience and knowledge but when it comes to imagination we all differ.

Your post, since some of it was aimed at me, simply spells out the in-flight crew response to a failed ADIRU input. (I'm reading the NNC and FCOM bulletins too) What about a startling event like a sudden, uncommanded pitch up, in the middle of the night, over water, high altitude, likely at optimum?

I can tell you from everyday first hand experience not all pilots are created equal which means not all pilots are likely to handle a sudden, unexpected, auto pilot disconnect with their aeroplane rocketing to 45,000 feet, possibly stalling in the process and the ensuing attempted recovery, with the same consistent outcome.

I'm only suggesting this may have happened. Not that it did. I'm merely trying to sort out in my own mind if it did, why would it, and what aircraft systems would likely be affected and what would the likely outcome be. Unfortunately, it all fits. My research, even from Boeing suggests the potential for a catastrophic event would be likely. Is this it?

I'm having a hard time with the implications that the Captain may have been up to something politically sinister because he has Microsoft Flight Simulator on his PC.

Truth is, I'm simply speculating. What can you offer beyond a known recommended procedure for crew when dealing with a failed ADIRU which might not have been applied here?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass, I'm trying to look at things which may be more realistic, like I said, what research have you found regarding ADIRUs?

Cheers,
Gino