bizjets101 wrote:American's are using their brand new P-8 (Boeing 737-800) Poseidon to search 1500 miles west of Perth Australia. Personally with all the USA's military satellites - I doubt very much they'd send a P-8 to search unless they actually believe that is where MH370 is.
Gino Under wrote:quote: Maths for the day: one raised to any power is still one. That would mean an absolute certainty.
That's for sure.
What about a 1 in 1500 to the minus something chance? That work?
Gino
Well you could have a straightforward 1500-to-the-minus-something probability, or you could have a 1 in 1500-to-the-something-positive chance. But you wouldn't want to have "1 in 1500-to-the-minus-something" because that would be "1 in something small" rather than "1 in something large".
All clear?
Speaking of probabilities, I wonder how their search software is handling a search area as large and varied as the one presented, along with the apparent total uncertainty of which direction the aircraft ultimately headed and why.
Bayesian search theory is the application of Bayesian statistics to the search for lost objects. It has been used several times to find lost sea vessels, for example the USS Scorpion. It also played a key role in the recovery of the flight recorders in the Air France Flight 447 disaster of 2009.
Australian reports of possible related debris in the southern oceans. Located via satellite photos, and aircraft being diverted to check it out. They expect an orion on scene thursday afternoon, aussie time zone.
With all of the advances in technology, does anybody think it would be feasible to have a data link from the aircraft to ensure flight data and cockpit voice data are stored on the ground as well as the aircraft?
goldeneagle wrote:Australian reports of possible related debris in the southern oceans. Located via satellite photos, and aircraft being diverted to check it out. They expect an orion on scene thursday afternoon, aussie time zone.
Apparently they have found a 24 metre piece of debris via Chinese satellite floating in the S. Indian Ocean. They have ships and helicopters en route this (tomorrow am Australia time) morning.
Tips Up wrote:Which weirdly enough had much of the data deleted recently. And his family moved out of their home the day before the accident.
He's a grandfather and his kids are grown up and don't live at home. His wife often stays with her one of her children when he's away on a trip. News articles reference his wife being quite upset at these accusations. Pure sensationalist reporting by the media. Making story out of nothing.
Someone gets "upset" like that means they're probably 'legit' and so it looks like the media is coming up empty there, they'll just have to come up with another angle for the next newscast.
The latest satellite debris is found where seas were calmer for the previous five days so items would stay closer together, not drifting too far, and therefore make it easier to find the aircraft.
The angle: The PIC decides to search out the calmest water /daylight to make his successful emergency landing, perhaps not even realizing his transponder was off and no-one to find their direction in time.
boogs82 wrote:With all of the advances in technology, does anybody think it would be feasible to have a data link from the aircraft to ensure flight data and cockpit voice data are stored on the ground as well as the aircraft?
I guess I wasn't the only one to think about that.
pdw wrote:The angle: The PIC decides to search out the calmest water /daylight to make his successful emergency landing, perhaps not even realizing his transponder was off and no-one to find their direction in time.
If I had a choice of where to ditch, picking a spot in the ocean 1500 miles from land would be pretty much on the bottom of the list no matter how calm the water was at that location.
Well, the broadcast media have raised the possibility/question/hypothesis that he did not know where he was (lost all navigational capability) and after flying for several hours, all he could see was water....?
Of course, the sun always rises in the East, so how difficult would it be to go North - assuming there was some light in the sky at altitude?
And there are MANY unanswered questions prior to that event, I realize. Having the transponder turned on mode C would do nothing for him in that part of the world.
Another thing ... say your floating compass becomes the only levelling reference remaining, it's still possible to fly IFR on the southerly (S) heading in darkness because it deviates twice as rapidly from S without turning opposite first.
I understood from studying other ditching accidents in wavy conditions the front end of the aircraft is most vulnerable, thus less chance of survival. Also, was led to believe that flying east there is daylight sooner ... so it may be helpful to discover what time was first light at that end of the ocean "1500" miles west off Australia. If the landing was successful, the last ping could be from their water location at " 8:11 " ?
MrWings wrote:If I had a choice of where to ditch, picking a spot in the ocean 1500 miles from land would be pretty much on the bottom of the list no matter how calm the water was at that location.
How much warmer would the water be off Perth than off Phucket ?
Is it better to land with empty fuel tanks in order to minimize impact momentum, and allow empty fuel-storage to make a (hopefully) floating aircraft more bouyant plus give time to disconnect the escape chutes/rafts ?
Then fly circles and you'll stay near last know position. That is where people will start looking for you. Fly towards land in an attempt to find an airport. Ditching that far out from land is hopeless no matter how warm the water.
If the plane is there, they didn't go there willingly. I am leaning toward pilot incapacitation.
pdw wrote:Another thing ... say your floating compass becomes the only levelling reference remaining, it's still possible to fly IFR on the southerly (S) heading in darkness because it deviates twice as rapidly from S without turning opposite first.
I understood from studying other ditching accidents in wavy conditions the front end of the aircraft is most vulnerable, thus less chance of survival. Also, was led to believe that flying east there is daylight sooner ... so it may be helpful to discover what time was first light at that end of the ocean "1500" miles west off Australia. If the landing was successful, the last ping could be from their water location at " 8:11 " ?
Your age is showing, pdw...talking about magnetic compass behavior...
+1 ... in that case that experienced flight engineer apparently riding in the back might have figured out a way to survive if there was one, if anyone was able it would be him, ... ie sucking on any unused oxygen masks and making his way to the front eventually. Perhaps a recovery of manual control was possible, but then no idea of whereabouts/location once out over the ocean far enough.
boogs82 wrote:With all of the advances in technology, does anybody think it would be feasible to have a data link from the aircraft to ensure flight data and cockpit voice data are stored on the ground as well as the aircraft?
Two Canadian companies are aiming to do this precise thing:
Excellent plan, but until someone MANDATES it, it just isn't going to happen. Sad but rue. The airlines won't put an extra peanut on the aircraft (a whole other story) and the pilots don't want to be watched by Big Brother.
pdw wrote:Someone gets "upset" like that means they're probably 'legit' and so it looks like the media is coming up empty there, they'll just have to come up with another angle for the next newscast.
However harsh and tasteless it appears to be, one can only hope that something turns up soon, so that the press may get closure on this thumb-sucking idiocy expert speak guess- game of theirs. The media coverage on this lost airplane is becoming more nasty than the loss of life...
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Integrity Is A Choice. It is consistently choosing the simplicity and purity of truth over popularity. ~ Unknown
Anybody remember the B727 that ditched 183 miles from Gander - it was being returned at the end of a lease from Malta - back to Peru - Sept 11 1990 - with 18 persons on board - flying from Iceland to Gander.
It ran out of fuel, declared Mayday - and was never seen again - from what I recall - nobody wanted to spend the money to look for it.
On another note; CNN just hired my friend Miles O'Brien to report on MH370 for the next two weeks. Miles worked for CNN for 17 years. He also owns a Cirrus SR-22 - for those familiar with him - he lost his left arm on Feb 16th while in Japan - and didn't even tell anyone for a few days.
He was on Erin Burnett/CNN last night and she asked about his arm - worth a watch if only to hear such a positive attitude; click here.
Finally - search area weather for 48 hours is good.
