Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[1&2SpooledUp]

Anybody remember the B727 that ditched 183 miles from Gander - it was being returned at the end of a lease from Malta - back to Peru - Sept 11 1990 - with 18 persons on board - flying from Iceland to Gander.

It ran out of fuel, declared Mayday - and was never seen again - from what I recall - nobody wanted to spend the money to look for it.


On another note; CNN just hired my friend Miles O'Brien to report on MH370 for the next two weeks. Miles worked for CNN for 17 years. He also owns a Cirrus SR-22 - for those familiar with him - he lost his left arm on Feb 16th while in Japan - and didn't even tell anyone for a few days.

He was on Erin Burnett/CNN last night and she asked about his arm - worth a watch if only to hear such a positive attitude; click here.

Finally - search area weather for 48 hours is good.

It was rumoured that the ditching was a hoax and the 727 flew to an unknown location under radar. I remember hearing that story from an ATC friend that was working that oceanic sector at Gander Centre the day it happened.

Thanks for bringing that up! I had totally forgotten about that.

[bizjets101]

Air Malta B727-200 with Peruvian registration OB-1303 was ditched with a 18 person crew of Faucett Airlines of Peru on board - none of the 18 crew were ever seen again.



Found this post on pprune dated January 14th by oldebloke of Vancouver,

There was no report of this accident Released.Under ICOA art 13 the country of registry ,Peru?,should have 'produced' the report.Shortly after the accident there was a 'change' of goverment,and nobody followed up on the ICAO requirement.As an accident Investigator for Canada's airline Association ,of the day,Calpa,I recieved several documents from ATCand pilot reports(of the US crews that conversed with during the Accident),but no one(TSB,NTSB) formulated a report.

The flight ,as has been pointed out was returning home after a summer stint with Malta.The crew where fit as testified by the ramp people in Iceland.The flight had nearly six hours of fuel on board for the 3.45 flight to Canada.After takeoff the flight was thought to have steadily turned left from the basic track of 234..After 4 hours ,with no navaid reception or VHF atc communication the flight started to 'call' on guard which was picked up by several US carriers.Upon discussion with all the crews involved,it was establihed that the flight had 'drifted' southwest of it's track and was off(southeast) the Canadian coast.

There was no VHFcommunication recieved via the long range site in Newfoundland (200 miles at altitude).The flight was restricted to below FL270 due no HF fitted.The interflight interchange of weather(on radar at long range) at position ,cloud cover,and sun position established that if the flight took up a Northwest heading it was only approx 250 off the coast.Radar showed up evidence of a 'squall line'between the flight and the coast.Later contact with the flight was establihed via a second air (US)carrier.Upon querying the flight situation the Peruvian crew stipulated that they were at 6000'on a Southwest heading preparing to Ditch as they didn't want to penetrate/cross the Weather off the coast.

It's believed that the Chief Pilot, the working pilots and their families were onboard,retuning to Peru.
The seas were quite rough at the time,and a report came 24hours later from a Russian Fish boat of sighting of the aircraft,The fish boat's position was suspect as it was within the Canadian Boundaries.

Later wreckage was picked up in the form of Tarpaulins etc

[bizjets101]

Back to MH370 - only update overnight - Malaysian Airlines CEO is confirming the aircraft was carrying Lithium Batteries in the cargo hold; Click Here.

[pdw]

Still haven't heard how many batteries, or their weight.

Other than the discussion about a fire, this is the type of cargo that will try to sink like a stone when submerged in water. If there's a lot and loaded towards the rear of the plane, once buoyancy properties take over in water the normal W&B concerns are out, as even noticeable in footage of the Hudson River accident (where aft-sinking of the fuse-lage started first).

The fuel tanks flown empty at CofG with the fuselage much less float-able at the tail end, ie with any heavier / high-density cargo there, ... probably only increases tail-end sink-rate of aircraft that may have stayed intact landing on water.

[kev994]

I just watched a briefing on these batteries, they are extremely hazardous, they make their own oxygen if they are on fire, really hard to put out (IIRC class D? I know Halon doesn't put it out). The examples given of fire in flight I think in 15-20 mins every flight had basically disintegrated. Nowhere near 7 hours.

[pdw]

How is there even a chance they can catch on fire when not in use, when merely packaged for sale ?

[kev994]

http://wikipedia.org/wiki/UPS_Airlines_Flight_6

I can't make this stuff up. There were at least 2 others.

[mbav8r]

pdw, FYI, the Hudson Airbus sunk aft first because the FO did NOT close the dump valve after ditching, water was pouring in through the valve and in all likleyhood would not have sunk had the valve been closed.
As for 370, I don't imagine they would be a factor on whether or not an intact fuselage would sink or not, intact water would not get to them and it would just be dead weight, not intact, does it really matter, maybe there were gold bars loaded right beside them, either way not going to matter.
If these caught fire, my understanding without looking it up, they burn so hot they will melt through metal, hence why they are in titanium boxes on the 787.

[GyvAir]

I see the "officials" are backtracking on the reported order and timing of events regarding last verbal communications and the xpndrs and ACARS ceasing to work.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/15/world/asi ... hronology/

Latest version in brief:
12:41 a.m.: Takeoff
Before 1:07 a.m.: Route change believed programmed into computer
Investigators believe a change in flight plan was programmed into the plane's guidance system -- though not yet executed -- by this time, a senior U.S. official who was briefed on the investigation told CNN. This belief is based on data that was transmitted 12 minutes before the pilots' last voice communication, the official said.
1:07 a.m.: ACARS sends communication
1:19 a.m.: Voice check-in
"All right, good night" were the final words from the cockpit
1:21 a.m.: Transponder off
1:22 a.m.: Plane disappears from Thai military radar
1:28 a.m.: Thai radar picks up unknown aircraft
About 1:30 a.m.: Civilian radar loses contact with plane
1:37 a.m.: Expected ACARS transmission doesn't happen
The ACARS was supposed to transmit a half-hour after it last did so. Therefore, it was supposed to transmit at 1:37 a.m. -- but it didn't, Yahya said,
So, the ACARS stopped communicating sometime between 1:07 and 1:37 a.m.
2:15 a.m.: Military radar detection

[B52]

More interesting press releases / Links

Satellite Company Inmarsat Says Its Data Could Help Find Malaysia Airliner
http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/21/sa ... a-airliner

Chris McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of the British satellite communications company, Inmarsat, joined Megyn Kelly on the Kelly File to discuss the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

Inmarsat has estimated that the missing plane took a westerly path, rather than a northeast path at the time of its disappearance.

In the company's first American television interview, McLaughlin said that Inmarsat was "absolutely certain" that its technology was "seeing the readings from this aircraft", referring to the Boeing 777 in question.

"Signals had continued to be received for a number of hours after it had lost contact with the radar and with the ACARS management system," McLaughlin said.


Then
MH370 hunt widens as commercial jets join search

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/mh370-hu ... z2wfJ7EbX4
An analysis of satellite pings shows that Malaysian Airline System Bhd. Flight 370 may have cruised steadily across the ocean after diverting from its scheduled route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur. That assessment gave the clearest idea yet on how investigators pinpointed a search zone.

(Note - says May have - Nice to see something conservative)

Engineers at Inmarsat Plc, whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. Malaysia needs to verify that information, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the chief of the nation's civil aviation, said in Kuala Lumpur.

The data helped investigators conclude that the most logical path was progressively either north or south. U.S. investigators have focused the search to the south, where Australia is leading the ocean-search efforts.

When officials estimated the plane was flying at or near its cruising speed of more than 800 kilometres per hour, it produced a probable path the engineers were "very confident" about, McLaughlin said.

Arc Estimate

The engineers don't know the plane's track for certain because the satellite pings can only be used to estimate an arc along the Earth's surface where it would have been, he said.
The engineers at Inmarsat were able to validate their estimates of the plane's location by matching its position at 1:07 a.m., when it sent a burst of data through its Aircraft Communications and Reporting System, McLaughlin said. That final transmission on Acars included a GPS position that was used to calibrate the other estimates, he said.

The Inmarsat analysis is consistent with details suggesting that, at least initially, the path was commanded from the cockpit, John Cox, president of Washington-based Safety Operating Systems, said in an interview. It still doesn't answer what may have happened to the plane and what led it to fly for so long, he said.


Interview with Chris McLaughlin

http://vimeo.com/32770047 ( re yacht racing)



Another Item
Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-2 ... mates.html

The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. Malaysia needs to verify that information, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the chief of the nation’s civil aviation, said in Kuala Lumpur.


(Malaysia needs to verify???)

The data helped investigators conclude that the most logical path was progressively either north or south.



Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airli ... de-1441174

The Inmarsat Classic Aero is installed in 90% of the world's commercial jets, and it is this little box which sent out the pings of information.

The box has been in use "for decades" and sends information to the Inmarsat-3 and Inmarsat-4 satellites stationed in the geosynchronous belt 22,300 miles above Earth.
The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. Malaysia needs to verify that information, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the chief of the nation’s civil aviation, said in Kuala Lumpur.


An upgrade to Classic Aero is currently going through testing, called SwiftBroadband. The new product will give 512Kbps of broadband to flights, which would be enough to send text messages, make phone calls, and crucially, to stream information into the cloud.



Flight 370: Satellite firm picked south on day two
(0ne of the better articles)


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11224111

Vital "pings" that continued to be sent to a satellite were first accessed by technical experts the day after the Malaysia Airlines plane disappeared from civilian radar off the country's northeast coast on Saturday, March 8.

By Monday the team at the satellite's owners, Inmarsat, were "fairly certain" the Boeing 777 had most likely flown for around another seven hours.

The British firm sent its analysis to a Swiss aviation IT provider the next day, which is said to have then informed Malaysian officials the day after that - on Wednesday, March 12.


"Our engineers looked at the time between the handshakes, and they realised that the object wasn't stationary under a satellite but moving away from it," Inmarsat senior vice-president Chris McLaughlin told the Washington Post.

http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?doc ... T6EVUTMVBJ
An analysis of satellite pings shows that Malaysian Airline System Bhd. Flight 370 may have cruised steadily across the ocean after diverting from its scheduled route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur. That assessment gave the clearest idea yet on how investigators pinpointed a search zone.

(Note; - "May have")

According to the Wall Street Journal, the company became concerned the data was not being acted upon and approached UK security authorities for assistance. Malaysia Airlines was also said to have told the Swiss firm to use the UK's Air Accidents Investigations Branch as a "primary conduit".

It remains unclear why the Malaysian investigators took several days to act on the information, and change the focus of the search.

Critical Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight
Investigators Are Still Working to Recover From the Delay

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 0167673144


The information was relayed to Malaysian officials by Wednesday, March 12, the people said. Inmarsat also shared the same information with British security and air-safety officials on Wednesday, according to two of the people, who were briefed on the investigation


Malaysia's government, concerned about corroborating the data and dealing with internal disagreements about how much information to release, didn't publicly acknowledge Inmarsat's information until March 15,


The disclosures about how the information made its way into the investigation underline how international efforts to find the plane have been repeatedly marred by distrust among the countries involved, confusion in many of Malaysia's public statements, and criticism from many countries that has led some to suspend or change their search efforts in frustration.

The lost days and wasted resources have threatened to impede the investigation, according to some officials involved with the probe.


Another government official said Malaysia was cautious about revealing and acting on the data because "we don't want to upset anybody with round after round of confusing information."


China's government has complained about Malaysia's response, with Premier Li Keqiang on Monday urging Mr. Najib to provide "more detailed information in its possession, including third-party information, in a timely, accurate and comprehensive manner," according to China's official Xinhua news agency.

Mr. McLaughlin said the data was shared the following day with SITA, which in turn shared it with Malaysian officials.


One person said Malaysia chose not to disclose what it considered raw data, preferring to check it first with international partners.

It wasn't clear how U.S. officials obtained the initial Inmarsat data, which they analyzed and helped translate into maps. Regardless, people briefed on the probe agree it took longer than expected for the information to spread from engineers and technical experts who cranked out the first version of the data to policy makers and then back down to officials directing specific elements of the searches.

This article
( http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 0167673144 )
is about the best one I've seen.

If you take a look at "the Arc" the various scenarios of how the flight "turned around"
you see that "the arc" does not look like a straight line.

If you look at the map of the Australian search area, it appears to assume that
(a) The 777 flew on the same heading
(b) ran out of fuel
and that appears, to determine their search area
with adjustment for wind and current.

It looks impressive.

But still raises of why they have a curved line rather than a straight line
if it was on the same heading?

Anyone got any ideas?

Now here is a simulator checking out 45,000 Ft
Plane Crash MH370 Latest News Shwing A Test Flight The theory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UHzHNmNX3c

Excellent video...


Another one showing the RADAR on that night...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D9Nnxt0D_I MH370 is in red...
This shows that the flight was being HAND FLOWN over Malaysian

Take a look at 2:26 it appears to be a Military Jet....!
Can anyone verify this video? it makes a variety of claims that are worth looking at...


FAA warned Boeing 777s had problems (March 13, 2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxFisHZMef0

[GyvAir]

But still raises of why they have a curved line rather than a straight line
if it was on the same heading?

If you're referring to the red arcs, they represent the approximate angle (40 degrees, measured from the horizontal. 90 degrees would be directly under the satellite) from which the satellite received the signal from the aircraft.
I think they are guessing the most likely paths the aircraft may have taken simply by drawing a circle around the last known position near Malaysia, representing maximum fuel range, then drawing straight lines from the last known position to the intersection of the fuel range circle and the satellite reception angle arcs.

[CFR]

pdw, FYI, the Hudson Airbus sunk aft first because the FO did NOT close the dump valve after ditching, water was pouring in through the valve and in all likleyhood would not have sunk had the valve been closed.
As for 370, I don't imagine they would be a factor on whether or not an intact fuselage would sink or not, intact water would not get to them and it would just be dead weight, not intact, does it really matter, maybe there were gold bars loaded right beside them, either way not going to matter.
If these caught fire, my understanding without looking it up, they burn so hot they will melt through metal, hence why they are in titanium boxes on the 787.

While the valve was not closed it made little difference as "The impact with the water had ripped open a hole in the underside of the airplane and twisted the fuselage, causing cargo doors to pop open and filling the plane with water from the rear..." - wikipedia

[pdw]

Seeing that happening to the underside on that smooth water landing brings the question how much impact speed the nose of those fuselages can withstand when forced beneath the surface in wavier conditions after touchdown.

[CFR]

Seeing that happening to the underside on that smooth water landing brings the question how much impact speed the nose of those fuselages can withstand when forced beneath the surface in wavier conditions.

Unknown as he landed the plane tail first, I suspect to avoid having the cockpit dig in. It was that first impact the did the damage the to rear of the plane. Interesting to note that those at the front of the plane did not perceive the impact to be very bad, while those at the rear described it as severe.

[pdw]

I wouldn't mind asking (Capt. Sullenberger) as to the depth at which the nose plowed along in the water; they'd probably have a real good recollection of that, what it felt like in that cockpit (sitting right there) as it penetrated the surface a few feet away at that high speed.

Back to the topic of the arcs, if the extensive search presently at the southern limit fails to turn up any evidence does the focus shift north ?

[goldeneagle]

But still raises of why they have a curved line rather than a straight line
if it was on the same heading?

Anyone got any ideas?

It's pretty basic actually. The pings dont provide a bearing, they just provide a distance from the satellite, which results in a circle plotted on the ground. You can exclude all parts of the circle that are out of range of the aircraft.

The next part of the analysis takes a little bit of math. Each ping provides an arc, with a time. You assume the aircraft was flying at a constant velocity, and make a rough guess as to what that velocity was. There will be one strait line in the northern direction, and one in the southern direction, where the distance between the arcs, is approximately the speed at which the aircraft was moving. Example, if you have arcs spaced at roughly 250 mile intervals, then an aircraft flying at 250 knots would intersect them on 90 degree angle. But an aircraft flying at 500 knots, would intersect those arcs on roughly a 45 degree angle at hourly intervals. In reality, it's unlikely the actual arcs are equally spaced.

So, now take the location of the arcs, and an approximation of the speed the aircraft was flying. With 6 arcs, and assuming a constant velocity for the airplane, solve a system of 6 equations in 6 unknowns, using a fixed velocity value, and you will end up with 2 lines that match the data, one north, and one south. You can repeat the exercise for different velocities, factor in winds, and come up with some rather accurate estimates of where it could have went, based on the constant velocity assumption. If the aircraft was not flying a constant heading and/or velocity, the problem becomes much more difficult to solve, but, one can still come up with rough error bars off of the individual arcs, which is why the final arc is so widely published. At the last ping, it was on that arc, and there is a limited distance it could be off that arc, based on fuel available.

The search area in the south is the focus of the air search, because it's the intersection of the line resulting from that math, along with the 'ran out of fuel' line estimates. To search those areas in the north, first line of search, just get on the phone to every airport in the area with a runway long enough to land a 777. Second line, look at radar data from various military installations. None of this is available on the southern path, which is why it's the focus of the air search, the northern path is being analyzed for other possible data points. The northern path is subject to all sorts of diplomatic problems for overflights, and, in most of the areas there is radar data available, even if it's not being made public.

Refining search areas in a case like this, begins by figuring 'where it cannot be'. Initial area, a circle of possible range based on last known position. The final satellite handshake can dramatically increase the area 'where it cannot be', and be excluded from the search. After taking into account each and every hard data point, lots of areas can be excluded, and what's left is the area that is still possible, ie where they will search. Then one takes various assumptions into account, and assigns priorities based on 'what is likely'.

The area in the south is a focus right now, because it matches the hard data points, and matches a number of theories considered highly probable.

At this point, the goal for most agencies is not so much to find an intact airplane anymore. The real goal, find one piece of that aircraft, so the rest of the search efforts can wind down, it's turning into a very expensive exercise for everybody involved. Finding one piece of confirmed evidence will allow most of the agencies involved to wind down search operations.

[ragbagflyer]

But still raises of why they have a curved line rather than a straight line
if it was on the same heading?

I think you're devoting way too much energy into this; you're not gonna crack this riddle from your couch.

At any rate, there's a multitude of reasons this suggested flight path doesn't look like a straight line on whatever graphic CNN is showing you in a particular hour. Despite the objections of some (perhaps an oil rig worker), the earth is a sphere. Do you realize you can't project a globe properly onto a flat piece of paper right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map_projection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_line

[Gilles Hudicourt]

Not to mention that there are chances that this aircraft will never be found and that the real cause of its fate will never be known.......

[Canoehead]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D9Nnxt0D_I MH370 is in red...
This shows that the flight was being HAND FLOWN over Malaysian

Take a look at 2:26 it appears to be a Military Jet....!
Can anyone verify this video? it makes a variety of claims that are worth looking at...

How can you tell this airplane is being hand flown?

How does this appear to be a military jet?


The commentator in the videos is qualified how exactly? Because he can log onto an internet flight tracking website?

And you're quoting his video why?

[1000 HP]

I've spent about 2.5 hours a night looking at the satellite photos on Tomnod. I'm not sure what ocean I'm looking at but it looks like boiling water with waves over a 100 feet long common. I've spotted only 2 chunks of wreckage for sure (but who knows what they are from) and a bunch of what are probably wave crests. This is from looking at 1000's of satellite pictures. It's really hard to figure out when the scale is approx 1cm = 100 ft. After about 2.5 hours I'm going cross-eyed already and have to pack it in.

I probably missed it but did the airliner even have life rafts? Or just jackets? I see in the briefing cards on AC's 777 that the emergency exit ramps can be used as rafts but I doubt they'd make good ones.

[boeingboy]

I see in the briefing cards on AC's 777 that the emergency exit ramps can be used as rafts but I doubt they'd make good ones.

That's what it is on every commercial aircraft. (slides or slide/raft)

[1000 HP]

But still raises of why they have a curved line rather than a straight line
if it was on the same heading?

I think you're devoting way too much energy into this; you're not gonna crack this riddle from your couch.

At any rate, there's a multitude of reasons this suggested flight path doesn't look like a straight line on whatever graphic CNN is showing you in a particular hour. Despite the objections of some (perhaps an oil rig worker), the earth is a sphere. Do you realize you can't project a globe properly onto a flat piece of paper right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map_projection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_line

Yep, just punch your home town/village into Foreflight and put WALL (Balikpapan, my destination) into the other end. You get a big pink line that curves up to Alaska and down past Japan. I used to own a 40's vintage globe and used a piece of string on it to prove to myself that the airlines weren't wasting time by flying off course.

[1000 HP]

Has anybody that works with them got the dimensions of the rafts on Air Malaysia? Also, although I doubt the color would show up in the sat photos, what color are they?

[GyvAir]

I don't work for them, but here's a couple photos of 777 slides deployed, giving a pretty good size and colour reference.
I would imagine they could be pretty tough to spot with the resolution of the satellite photos I've seen.
Has Tomnod loaded any satellite imagery from the southern Indian Ocean? From what I could see, they only had images from the original search areas near Malaysia.

[1000 HP]

Thanks GyvAir. They look to be about 12 by 30 feet. The white color doesn't help much, as it is the same color as the ocean spray in the sat photos.

Tomnod just posted a new scan area in the present search location. I've got about 15 hours or more in my old location before I will switch over. I have noticed that the ocean is full of trash...