Shoot me down

[HiLo]

So go ahead and poke holes into my theory:

The reality is that Jazz is much too expensive an operation to be running Dash/RJ's. Chances are they will be sent down to the other AC regionals (it's already started, actually). The question then becomes: what will happen to Jazz?

With AC management so desperate to cut costs, it's likely there will be more outsourcing to the regionals. The logical next step is to push the e190s down, but then what.

Could we see a future where AC only flies widebodies? I don't mean that the A320s and 737s disappear. They could get outsourced to Jazz. Will there be a day when Jazz pilots are flying YYZ-YHZ-LHR?

[Inverted2]

Well I think ACs real goal is to have all the 319/320/321 go to Rouge but who knows what these greedy CEO's really have planned.

[Black Cat]

Good therory, and one that's been around for some time and warrants thought.

Is jazz too expensive now? mYbe. Will jazz be too expensive in dec 2020? who knows? What will encore be paying in 2020? Same question for Georgian/SR? Will another regional pop up to undercut Georgian/sr/jazz? Will Joe/Jo get their b scale through for new hires in 2015? More buyouts for the seniors? Will the 190's follow their cuzins to SR? Will rouge become the domestic wing of ac with sub par pay and working conditions for all? Will there be a Buy out of jazz by another airline? Will the kids see there is no future in aviation and combine with retirements to create the apocalyptic pilot shortages the flying schools have been hyping since Wilber got it up?

The hypatheticals situations and possibilites for jazz are endless (an end is not out of the question either) If only the chrystal ball of aviations wasn't at minimums we would all know.

[Stinky]

I know it's been a popular topic among Jazz crews, simply leave the wages and working conditions alone and upsize the fleet and everyone is happy. I haven't seen any examples of that south of the border, the wages tended to continue on the downward trajectory and the planes were still getting bigger. PSA got CRJ900's because they were the lowest bidder and undercut Eagle.

It seems that if scope gets opened up to the 190's they'll go to whichever pilot group will take the biggest concessions. I think all the talk of matching planes with regionals that have the right pay scales is a bit of a pipe dream.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... ly-crj900s

[HiLo]

I know it's been a popular topic among Jazz crews, simply leave the wages and working conditions alone and upsize the fleet and everyone is happy. I haven't seen any examples of that south of the border, the wages tended to continue on the downward trajectory and the planes were still getting bigger. PSA got CRJ900's because they were the lowest bidder and undercut Eagle.

It seems that if scope gets opened up to the 190's they'll go to whichever pilot group will take the biggest concessions. I think all the talk of matching planes with regionals that have the right pay scales is a bit of a pipe dream.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... ly-crj900s

The thing about the US regionals is that the mainline union agreements limit outsourcing to airframes below a cetain MTOW, and thus to RJs and props.

[Stinky]

The thing about the US regionals is that the mainline union agreements limit outsourcing to airframes below a cetain MTOW, and thus to RJs and props

Isn't that pretty much what we have here. You have roughly the same mix of regional flying down there, Republic and Compass I believe fly 175's, others fly CRJ's, Dash's, 1900's etc..

[Black Cat]

^
Yes, that's where rouge comes in. Question is, when will rouge be sold off (with a CPA) and after that when will a"SkyRouge" start up to undercut their wacon? History repeats itself dumb-dums.

[KAG]

But will there be enough pilots to allow history to repeat itself? Sure there will always be those in need of jobs but if the supply /demand issue we have changes, will there still be enough pilots to fill these poorly paying jobs.

As for jazz's future, I hope it settles out. What we tend to forget on this site is behind all the slamming and companies downsizing are families being effected.

[Joe Blow Schmo]

If AC were wanting to outsource all NB flying, they could save money and give them to Jazz, or they could save even more money and give them to SR too. If they're going to outsource I'm sure they'll outsource to the cheapest option.

I know it's been a popular topic among Jazz crews, simply leave the wages and working conditions alone and upsize the fleet and everyone is happy.

Well I don't imagine the AC pilots would be very happy with that outcome. After all the Jazz pilots (and others) were bashing SR and Encore for lowering the bar, you are now suggesting that Jazz lower the bar too?

[Fanblade]

There would need to be multiple changes to the ACPA CA to allow the 190 to a regional. And probably substantial furlough of pilots and FA's.

The obsticals.

The first is 76 seats.

The second. My understanding is there is little room left in the domestic ASM ratio. This ratio is meant to ensure shared growth in jobs. You guys think an extra 30 airbus are about to show up? To do what? The current plan is to replace 190's on roughly a 1:2 ratio with larger NB. ASM neutral. 50% reduction in jobs.

Third Mainline is currently over staffed. (Rouge transfer, 175 transfer, 190 replacement at 50%, no retirements) The 190 fleet has an employment guarantee on it. Your talking about 400-600 mainline jobs. AC is going to pay them to sit at home?

So either AC is about to add a lot of domestic aircraft at mainline to make ASM room for a 190 transfer and to suck up all that surplus staff, or your dreaming. Keep the 190's and get a whack of larger NB's? To go where? Did Canada just pull a Putin and annex California?

Perhaps you believe AC will renege on all these things and lay mainline pilots and FA's off to transfer the 190's?

Be realistic. The contractual obligations aside. With the recent common employer applications from the IAM and CUPE, AC can't furlough. (Mainline is already overstaffed by about 700-1000 FA's due to Rouge and Sky) If they do furlough they drastically increase the likelihood Rouge will be declared common which would completely undo their work to compete in the leisure market.

Look south of the boarder at the business plans AC appears to be emulating.

<77 seats at regionals. >130 seats at mainline. Nothing in between.

I hear a very consistent message from management. Everyone must be cost competitive. No exceptions.

[sstaurus]

But will there be enough pilots to allow history to repeat itself? Sure there will always be those in need of jobs but if the supply /demand issue we have changes, will there still be enough pilots to fill these poorly paying jobs.

Ahh, but that's where the execs are really drooling, hello TFWs!