Is there really a pilot shortage?

[timel]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHKanuyea ... e=youtu.be

Or is it again an other myth to attract new pilots?
Ten years ago when I started flying, it was all about those baby boomers about to leave...

[Shiny Side Up]

There is a shortage of pilots, just not where people who dream of being a pilot want there to be a shortage of pilots. This article is interesting.

http://www.flyingmag.com/careers/five-d ... -right-now

Note how there isn't Airline Pilot on that list.

Something I keep trying to get across to the kids these days is that there is a need for pilots, but probably not where you think, or maybe wish it was, and that ain't all that bad of a thing if one can creatively rearrange your thinking of how your pilot career might go. Right now I know of quite a few places that need pilots. Qualified pilots, and pilots interested in doing the types of work that's offered.

Incidentally, there's a shortage of qualified instructors right now. There's lots of instructors out there, but few qualified go-getters who are willing to move around, or are wanting to advance in that direction.

[vcollazo]

I don't know about Canada, but down here it sure is looking that way. Cape Air out of Cape Cod, MA, is losing pilots so fast that it is paying big bonuses for flying extra. A buddy of mine told me that he's getting $45 an hour plus $200 a day for his first 4 days of overtime and then $45 an hour plus $300 a day after that. This is for single pilot passenger service on Cessna 402s. Also most of our regional carriers are parking planes for lack of crew members now that their pilots are leaving for the majors. Delta alone is hiring 50 pilots a month for the foreseeable future. 90 of us have been recalled from furlough at Netjets over the past 4 months and it appears that all of the furloughed that wish to return will be able to do so by February. Our military is producing very few pilots and paying big bonuses to keep the ones it has. The number of new civilian pilots has also decreased dramatically, and all of this while demand is ramping up at an accelerated pace.

[Bede]

Economics 101:

A shortage is caused when the price of a good is below it's equilibrium price. In the case of airlines, an airline wants a pilot with enough qualifications for a $100k/yr job to work for $70k (or less). Then the manager wonders why they can't attract candidates.

Park those planes. Good riddance.

Here's a good video.
www.youtube.com/embed/rHKanuyeawc

[ajet32]

There is a real shortage here is Asia, but not for entry level pilots. I fly regularly with 400-600 hour first officers on B737NG aircraft and they are flying on EA320, CRJ900/1000 and just about everything else.
The shortage is Captains who want to leave North America or Western Europe and come to Asia to work hard and get paid well.
I suppose that isn't what the entry level pilot wants to hear. There are few if any jobs for entry level folks here unless you are a native. Cathay in Hong Kong and that's about it as far as I know.
The ALPA presentation circulating on the pilot shortage pretty much covers it for folks in North America. in Europe I would say it's as bad or worse. There if you aren't picked up by the national carrier. Your pay your training and then another $50,000 or more for a type rating to even be consider for a job at the likes of Ryanair.
I have to agree to an extent with the idea of parking airplanes. I was fortunate to always be able to move and find work. Sometimes places I wasn't thrilled about but I was able to keep flying and never had to work for the real low wages that are offered to some regional pilots.

[Liquid Charlie]

First define what a pilot is --- meaning at what point in time does a pilot become "qualified" to be considered part of the pool that is employable -- ok there is a shit load of wantabees out there and that old issue -- how to get your first job to obtain the experience to be employable -- always been like that and it is likely to continue here for some time -- look at the US of A with the higher qualifications for an atp and requiring an atp for right seat in 121 -- think of that impact here -- so to sum up the ramble -- certainly there is a shortage in some areas but not in others -- and for the new pilot on the block -- right seat in a single engine seems to be the right of passage that is emerging -- seat fillers in types that need no first officers and in fact are flown mostly like single pilot -- it will become known as the "ghost in the right seat" -- for floats -- there is a core of seasonal pilots out there who love that job and pay in some areas is good so staring at that level is far more unlikely as in bygone days -- the dynamics are changing and now we need to adapt. Slave labour and training bonds are now just a fact of life -- the lucky ones get out of that by the time their bond is up but then even though you have committed and fulfilled a 2 year commitment there are 703 operators out there that want a bond for equipment change even after working your ass off for several years -- now that is where it gets criminal.

[timel]

I don't know about Canada, but down here it sure is looking that way. Cape Air out of Cape Cod, MA, is losing pilots so fast that it is paying big bonuses for flying extra. A buddy of mine told me that he's getting $45 an hour plus $200 a day for his first 4 days of overtime and then $45 an hour plus $300 a day after that. This is for single pilot passenger service on Cessna 402s.

Thanks!
It is interesting to see how money pops up easily when they need you. Fact is pilots are the only ones to blame for their wages. We made that possible.

Economics 101:

A shortage is caused when the price of a good is below it's equilibrium price. In the case of airlines, an airline wants a pilot with enough qualifications for a $100k/yr job to work for $70k (or less). Then the manager wonders why they can't attract candidates.

Park those planes. Good riddance.

Here's a good video.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/rHKanuyeawc

This shortage is I believe mainly due to the new 1500 hours rule, f the only thing that can protect pilots against themselves are regulations.

the dynamics are changing and now we need to adapt. Slave labour and training bonds are now just a fact of life -- the lucky ones get out of that by the time their bond is up but then even though you have committed and fulfilled a 2 year commitment there are 703 operators out there that want a bond for equipment change even after working your ass off for several years -- now that is where it gets criminal.

My little observation, but I will have a better idea in less than a year of time, I think even 703 ops are going to suffer a little in the coming years. It might be the right timing for reviewing wawcons in certain provinces, there are not much leverages for right seats, but left seats are harder and harder to fill.

[FenderManDan]

My little observation, but I will have a better idea in less than a year of time, I think even 703 ops are going to suffer a little in the coming years. It might be the right timing for reviewing wawcons in certain provinces, there are not much leverages for right seats, but left seats are harder and harder to fill.

Pardon my silly question, what does WAWCON stands for?

[fish4life]

Wages and working conditions

[Liquid Charlie]

Here is something to think about -- what would happen to 703 operations if when the new FDT legislation is passed it aligns all groups to the same rules --

[timel]

Here is something to think about -- what would happen to 703 operations if when the new FDT legislation is passed it aligns all groups to the same rules --

Do you have any documentation about it? I though it was a cancelled project.

[Liquid Charlie]

Maybe -- I'll ask around

[B52]

The YouTube style is annoying to watch.

The bottom line is that the statistics used minimize the fact that
pilot recruitment is about getting the best quality and experience from
the available pool.

That pool, over the decades, is allowing lower and less experienced pilots
to become airline pilots at much lower levels of experience than in the past.

Just watch the schools who do training of overseas students who are
guaranteed a job.

[timel]

That pool, over the decades, is allowing lower and less experienced pilots
to become airline pilots at much lower levels of experience than in the past.

Just watch the schools who do training of overseas students who are
guaranteed a job.

The market is taking all the experienced pilots left. Ten years ago, nothing was moving. Now the pool is getting empty.
Is it only because world aviation is expanding and baby boomers are retiring?

Airlines have refrained themselves from using low times pilots in Canada, but nothing stops them from hiring a 350 hours pilot with an IATRA on a 737 if they need to fill a seat, and the new ATPL (copi hours counts as pic time) is Transport Canada's answer to an industry ready to lower standards.

This is the kind of subject a college and unions should start caring about...

[Diadem]

...the new ATPL (copi hours counts as pic time) is Transport Canada's answer to an industry ready to lower standards.

No, co-pilot time can't be credited as PIC (except under the PIC-US program, but that's a whole separate issue, and that program was around long before the regs changed). The only difference now is that co-pilot time is credited 1:1, instead of 2:1; a 737 FO now only needs 1300 hours on top of the 200 for the CPL, instead of 2600 on top of the 200, but they still need to get PIC from somewhere to get an ATPL.

[timel]

...the new ATPL (copi hours counts as pic time) is Transport Canada's answer to an industry ready to lower standards.

No, co-pilot time can't be credited as PIC (except under the PIC-US program, but that's a whole separate issue, and that program was around long before the regs changed). The only difference now is that co-pilot time is credited 1:1, instead of 2:1; a 737 FO now only needs 1300 hours on top of the 200 for the CPL, instead of 2600 on top of the 200, but they still need to get PIC from somewhere to get an ATPL.

Can't IATRA https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/ ... l-2343.htm
Play the role for someone that does not have an ATPL?

[B52]

This is the kind of subject a college and unions should start caring about...

There are lots of substantive subjects that should be taught at Aviation Colleges
and which are not.

The same goes for Flight Training, the training is becoming increasingly
incestuous, with schools actually signing contracts to only hire as instructors
those who sign up for that school from day one.

It breeds out experience, and can breed cult like narrow minded clone pilots
who might have the qualifications but lack any the benefit of having instructors with experience.

Even schools that decide to look for experienced instructors often end up with a CFI
who only hires for his own selfish reasons.

Their charisma is eventually overtaken by their toxic relationships that deter business
and send students in droves to other schools.

[Diadem]

Can't IATRA https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/ ... l-2343.htm
Play the role for someone that does not have an ATPL?

The IATRA is used to obtain a two-crew type rating. Having an ATPL (or the exams written) also grants this privilege, but the ATPL also grants the ability to be captain on a two-crew aircraft. The IATRA does not. The aforementioned 737 FO would require the IATRA or ATPL exams to get a type rating for the 737 even as FO, but could never be upgraded to captain without getting the ATPL. You can't just become a 737 captain by writing a 50-question exam.

[timel]

Can't IATRA https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/ ... l-2343.htm
Play the role for someone that does not have an ATPL?

The IATRA is used to obtain a two-crew type rating. Having an ATPL (or the exams written) also grants this privilege, but the ATPL also grants the ability to be captain on a two-crew aircraft. The IATRA does not. The aforementioned 737 FO would require the IATRA or ATPL exams to get a type rating for the 737 even as FO, but could never be upgraded to captain without getting the ATPL. You can't just become a 737 captain by writing a 50-question exam.

100% agree, as we speak IATRA is not used on Canadian market for FOs on boeings or airbuses, but could be used if no experienced pilots are left.

From that fact there won't be any shortage of pilots in Canada, except if we adopt a similar law like USA for the ATP at 1500 hrs. Forcast for pilots: Just a shortage of experienced pilot willing to work for less.

[goldeneagle]

Pilot shortage, again ?

When I started out (1976) I was told about the pending shortage, huge retirement wave coming of ww2 vets. After flying for 10 years, the story started to change, the retirement wave was going to be the baby boomers, and I only had another 5 or so years to wait before the shortage became critical. Wind the clock forward 30 years, and the talk today is still about that retirement wave about to hit. That story is truely getting rather old and worn out from my perspective.

What have I learned about the percieved shortage over the years? The ONLY places I've heard it discussed, is at training institutions. Used to be it was at places doing initial flight training, but the industry has changed a little. Today, the majority of talk regarding that shortage originates from places hawking ratings on boeings, including boeing themselves. The talk has changed in another manner too, the shortage is no longer 'here at home', it's always 'in some faraway place', and most of the faraway places happen to be inside internet censor walls, where it's very difficult to go online and actually confirm the rumors.

I started my working life in aviation, had the cpl + mifr + instructor rating all wrapped up by the ripe old age of 18, and listened intently to the talk about the pending shortage. Today I still read about it off and on, and I'm sure it will eventually arrive, but it wont affect me, because I'll be collecting CPP by the time that happens. Then again, it may not happen, the places hawking out the ratings for boeing and airbus equipment seem to be finding plenty of folks willing to pony up $50K for the privilege of sitting in the simulators, and some of them are even willing to pony up an equivalent amount to spend some time flying the line in the right seat of that equipment. For folks who cant afford to pony up for a rating on bigger equipment, another relatively new alternative has recently come onto the scene. Work for nothing (or next to it) for a few years, and you too can be a reality TV star, with the hope of possibly getting some time on an airplane in the process.

The industry is adapting over time, finding all sorts of creative new ways to extend the life of the 'carrot on a stick' business model, using a percieved and imminent shortage as the carrot. It's business as usual, nothing has changed, and the fact this thread shows up sort of confirms that.

We will know the shortage has truely arrived when the threads here stop being about percieved shortages, and start being conversations between folks along the line of 'I have 6 offers, which one would be best ?' Until then, there is no shortage. When you start getting usolicited offers of employment to poach you away from current position via the AvCanada inbox, then we'll know the shortage is really here, and real. But as long as the employment forum is the most viewed, and has the 'hire me' subforum, there is no shortage now, and /or in the near future.

[trey kule]

But as long as the employment forum is the most viewed, and has the 'hire me' subforum, there is no shortage now, and /or in the near future.

Thats a pretty good observation, and I think, conclusion

[MrWings]

A shortage is caused when the price of a good is below it's equilibrium price. In the case of airlines, an airline wants a pilot with enough qualifications for a $100k/yr job to work for $70k (or less). Then the manager wonders why they can't attract candidates.

This, this, a thousand times this.

[Docbrad]

Shortage of instructors? I have my class 4, and have fired off emails to dozens of operators in about 5 different provinces. I haven't received a call back...

I'm willing to move anywhere in Canada if that's what it takes

[fish4life]

Shortage of experienced instructors there is a big difference

[timel]

Shortage of experienced instructors there is a big difference

Good luck making a living as an instructor.
The day class 3 or 2 will earn 50-60k a year, you will have some retention.

I was instructor for over 6 years as a whole, my first year I did 12500 and the second one I worked really hard and made a 19000, the other years I got jobs that helped out a bit for the flying $$$ and instructor became more a side line by the time.

By the way you have to get a winter job for 3-4 months. In winter, not much flying going on.