Bearskin Metro 3 CYRL accident - Speculation thread

[Ki-ll]

That was a good post we all could learn from, too bad it is gone...

[Oxi]

Accident report is usually out after a year no?

[Illya Kuryakin]

More like 18 months to 2 years. You'll have to wait for both official languages. We know more about last week's BE20 than we'll know about this one for another while. The Americans are interested in finding and sharing problems ASAP to prevent accidents that can be avoided with knowledge. Canadians? Not so much.
Illya

[jpilot77]

Illya Kuryakin said

We know more about last week's BE20 than we'll know about this one for another while. The Americans are interested in finding and sharing problems ASAP to prevent accidents that can be avoided with knowledge. Canadians? Not so much.

+1

Time after time the US investigative body gives out preliminary reports, for the most part you don't hear a peep out of Canada's for years. If Asiana had happened in Vancouver as opposed to SF we still wouldn't have any idea what happened.

[PointyEngine]

Something unrelated to the Accident out east, but still an interesting one with a Metro II out of CYKA recently.

http://tinyurl.com/o97yehz

[Diadem]

+1

Time after time the US investigative body gives out preliminary reports, for the most part you don't hear a peep out of Canada's for years. If Asiana had happened in Vancouver as opposed to SF we still wouldn't have any idea what happened.

The last major accident in Canada was First Air 6560 in Resolute, and the TSB put out an interim report about six months after it happened. If they haven't said anything about this specific accident, maybe it's because they're still running tests to try to figure out what happened. Would you be satisfied if they announced that they were having a press conference, and at the press conference an investigator came out, cleared his throat, and said "We still don't know what caused the accident"? Do you want a quick answer, or a correct one?

[KK7]

Translation is not a time consuming process. From what I understand the time consuming process is the time for comment given to involved parties. In this case it would be the operator, aircraft manufacturer, engine manufacturer, NavCanada, insurance company. If anyone disputes what's in the draft report it has to go back for editing or potentially further investigation.

Preliminary reports are put out in the event that there is an immediate safety concern that affects others. If the probability of recurrence is high you can be certain action would be taken. Granted quick release of information helps provide closure for the victim's families, it largely serves the purposes of media interests and rubber neckers. I'm a rubber necker like everyone else, but I understand it's important to get the correct and full information instead of quickly released, incomplete and potentially unverified information. A full report will be released in due time, have patience!

[oldtimer]

I have been reading many posts on this subject and since it is a speculation thread, it appears most of the the discussion centers on either a botched missed approach or the props hanging on the start locks, which for an engine in operation is highly unlikely. One area no one has mentioned is the possibility of a malfunction of the underspeed governor. I had a Garrett/Honeywell OIL (Operational Information Letter) describing what happens when the drive for the underspeed governor fails. Basicaly, this is what I understand. In normal forward flight, the power levers are forward of flight idle therefore the main fuel control unit supplies more fuel than the underspeed governor and therefore is the more dominant control. The underspeed governor is not shut off, it simply does not supply enough fuel to be of any significance until engine RPM drops below the speed set by the speed levers, usually with the power levers aft of flight idle. But if the governor looses it drive shaft, the underspeed governor will now attempt to "regain speed" but with the failed drive, it cannot so it will continue to increase fuel flow, totally uncontrolled until either the engine stop and feather control is pulled or the engine spits it's pieces out the tail pipe. I read an accident report where a Junkstream crashed in North Carolina when the underspeed governor increased engine power to beyond maximum and the one man show captain reacted to "dead foot, dead engine" and feathered the normally operating engine, lost control in coud and spiraled out, killing everyone on board. This is the reason the PF always holds the engine stop and feather control during engine start and why some Company (as opposed to the AFM) checklists/SOP's have a blurb about uncommanded torque increase not responding to power lever movement. At a Metro operators conference a few years ago, Honeywell discussed this problem and has come up with a fix but I do not know if it is a manditory fix.
Although a totally different failure, the same sort of thing could possibly happen to a PT 6. Uncommanded torque increase not responding to power lever movement. In most training scenerios, everyone is trained to handle an engne failing to zero power but a turboprop engine could fail the opposite way, an uncommanded and uncontrolled increase in power for a very short time. Just my opinion.

[Illya Kuryakin]

The really annoying thing about Canadian accident reports is, even if they know the cause with absolute certainty within 48 hours, it'll still take 18 months for them to produce a report.
Illya

[Collidingwiththesky]

Accident report is usually out after a year no?

Accident report is usually out after a year no?

Has TC given any statements about the investigation yet? It has been over a year and seems like they should have a little more info by now. Is there somewhere specific that I could view info like that on their website?

[KK7]

Is there somewhere specific that I could view info like that on their website?

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-inves ... 3c0150.asp

The link above goes to the investigation website for this specific accident. However you won't find any significant information posted since around the time of the accident. If you want details try asking someone from Bearskin.

[Collidingwiththesky]

Good idea. Much appreciated!

[Illya Kuryakin]

Why is the TSB still dragging their collective asses on this one?
Illya

[KK7]

Why is the TSB still dragging their collective asses on this one?
Illya

How do you know it's the TSB and not one of the parties involved who are allowed to comment?

[Illya Kuryakin]

Why is the TSB still dragging their collective asses on this one?
Illya

How do you know it's the TSB and not one of the parties involved who are allowed to comment?

I'll bite. How long does it take to "comment"?
Sanitizing it, or covering up?
Illya

[the goal is soul]

Report released today.

http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-r ... 3C0150.asp

[PilotDAR]

I read the CBC report of the TSB report. It leaves me with more questions than answers.

They were on final?

"The crew was unable to identify the nature of the engine malfunction, preventing them from taking timely action to control the aircraft," the report says.

At an aircraft level, the nature of the malfunction would be loss of power on one side, so fly the plane first, and feather the prop if you have time?

You can arrive 1000' short of the runway, and it might still only be a "hard landing"....

[Illya Kuryakin]

Hate to sound flippant, but we waited how long for such wisdom? No Shiite Sherlock!! I've had the odd engine go south. On final? Power, control, land. I find TSB a reports way to full of irrelevant history, and for the most part devoid of the "what happened" and "why it happened" in favour of telling us about the pilot's time, medical etc., history. No contributing factors here.
I still have no idea why this crew, on this night, were unsuccessful in bringing this flight to a safe ending.
Illya

[CID]

I still have no idea why this crew, on this night, were unsuccessful in bringing this flight to a safe ending.
Illya

Well...some people can understand what they read and some can't. And if you can't figure out why the TSB does it like this then you are beyond help. Note that the TSB, the airline and the engine manufacturer have been providing information as required to people who require it in a timely manner. Not just a bunch of knee-jerk recommendations.

I think the TSB did an excellent job here and I appreciate the work they do.

[Maynard]

I read the CBC report of the TSB report. It leaves me with more questions than answers.

Maybe you should read the actual report, not a media report, of a report.

I'm assuming your not familiar with the TPE331 and its systems...

500' AGL, something goes wrong, how do you feather something instantly that has more signs saying its fine than not....

And Doc, when you have 4 out of 5 gauges telling you the engine is AOK, how do you conclude in seconds (since it was less than a minute from failure to trees, and less than that from things going south), that you need to shut that engine down?
It's always easy to be an expert when your sitting in a comfy chair with all the information, not so easy when its at night and your fighting for your life...