Air Tindi Pilot "Hero" for Flying into FRDZ

[esp803]

Just a quick side note, are the 900-1000hp caravans actually capable machines in ice? Or is it just as much of an airframe issue?

They are MUCH more capable in ice, they are however still Caravans. I've found the 900hp Garret to out perform the 850hp blackhawk, I'll let you know about the EX once I get my paws on it.

E

[Illya Kuryakin]

Flying a 182, I am quite terrified of icing this time of year.

Getting therapy to work through my lack of manhood in this area.

Manhood is a good thing to leave behind in this case.
You're a wise man. Fear isn't always a bad thing.
Illya

[Meddler]

Not knowing what he knew when he took off, I won't say much about decision making. However, it was dark, he was scared, in a very tight spot that he put himself into. However, he sounded exceptionally calm which counts huge in my book.

And in response to what was said earlier, in the dark in a caravan iced up to the point where it will not maintain altitude, no it is not just a matter of not pulling back till it stalls. There are lots of thing he could have done or not done that would have resulted in a smoking hole, yet he made it onto the ice in one piece. A CFIT does not result in that.

Btw, 9" of ice is almost enough to drive a D9 cat on.

[Cat Driver]

My description of CFIT was made because it is very unlikely he saw the ice before he flew on to it in the dark iced up.

A smoking hole would have been uncontrolled flight into terrain.

Therefore my comment was he did not lose control, even though it seems he declared a mayday and said he had a control issue.

[Navajo-dude]

Does anyone know how much experience this pilot had? Was it his first winter as pic?

[planemikey]

Glad everyone is OK . Like any incident it will be evaluated so someone can learn what the mistake was and how not to do it again.

[Maynard]

Glad everyone is OK . Like any incident it will be evaluated so someone can learn what the mistake was and how not to do it again.

Apparently people can't learn or this thread wouldn't exist...

[B-rad]

Does anyone know how much experience this pilot had? Was it his first winter as pic?

That's a good question. He learned a lot out of this experience I'm sure and I wish we had a supportive group that could allow him to talk about it non punitively. I can just imagine his morning getting ready for the flight dealing with pressure to make decisions (internal or external) if this was his first winter as PIC.
There's a saying that experience is what you get when you didn't get what you wanted. While I don't have much experience in icing, I feel like I could learn a few things from him and would be happy to have a drink and hear what happened from his point of view.

[B-rad]

Glad everyone is OK . Like any incident it will be evaluated so someone can learn what the mistake was and how not to do it again.

Apparently people can't learn or this thread wouldn't exist...

I don't think that's very fair to say. We don't all have the accumulated knowledge of the past in us by default. Generally someone flying a Caravan is still in the learning stage of their careers and are not immune to having things go wrong. I'm also a believer in lifetime learning and when you think you know it all, it's probably the biggest red flag of all.

[Donald]

Just listen to the crew of 604. How many pilots disagree with their decision or thought process? How many people think that what they did was a bad demonstration of pdm? How many people would have done the exact same thing?

[Softie]

Just for back ground info the weather reports for the flight on the thread below are accurate for the time of departure.
http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 7&start=25

I was there the morning in question.

I can tell you that at the time of dispatch there was no freezing precipitation at the time of departure but freezing precipitation arrived at the airport about 10 min after takeoff. The road was covered in it. Even if he could have turned around (which to my understanding he did), there was freezing rain waiting for him at YZF.

Needless to say the PIREP from the ATR was not available at the time of departure.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I would like to know from those who have flown a 208 for an airline: Based only on the information in the GFA, the metar (ignore the speci because they became available after takeoff) the TAF, and a look out the window that showed good vis and overcast conditions, would you have gone? If not, what was the nail in the coffin? If so, how would you have altered the flight to avoid the same fate?

[pelmet]

Glad everyone is OK . Like any incident it will be evaluated so someone can learn what the mistake was and how not to do it again.

Apparently people can't learn or this thread wouldn't exist...

I don't think that's very fair to say. We don't all have the accumulated knowledge of the past in us by default. Generally someone flying a Caravan is still in the learning stage of their careers and are not immune to having things go wrong.

That is why pilots should be reading accident reports from day 1 of flight training. There are two ways to learn about accident causes.

[Axial Flow]

Title should be FZDZ for this thread...if you are going to pontificate at least know your wx.

The early morning forecast I believe did not have the FZRA forecasted and came out as an amended TAF. There was not a Freezing Rain Public advisory which some are referring to until 1004AM
[HIGH PRIORITY] FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN EFFECT Issued for Yellowknife [Updated: Nov 20th 10:04 MST] http://goo.gl/G79DQS

Also if it was forecasted to be as bad there would have been a red band on the GFA icing section to represent the FZRA and severe clear icing associated.

It will all come out in the report with all the factual information....facts are a loosely used idea here...because I heard from a guy who knows a guy who works at Tindi...

Best of luck to the rest of you aces that always have everything work out as planned, hopefully you will be alive to defend your actions should things go sideways.

[Heliian]

These things happen to pilots with varying levels of experience, you push, you have to deal with the consequences.

I knew a very experienced pilot that just loved to push the weather.

[Maynard]

Title should be FZDZ for this thread...if you are going to pontificate at least know your wx.

The early morning forecast I believe did not have the FZRA forecasted and came out as an amended TAF. There was not a Freezing Rain Public advisory which some are referring to until 1004AM
[HIGH PRIORITY] FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN EFFECT Issued for Yellowknife [Updated: Nov 20th 10:04 MST] http://goo.gl/G79DQS

Also if it was forecasted to be as bad there would have been a red band on the GFA icing section to represent the FZRA and severe clear icing associated.

It will all come out in the report with all the factual information....facts are a loosely used idea here...because I heard from a guy who knows a guy who works at Tindi...

Best of luck to the rest of you aces that always have everything work out as planned, hopefully you will be alive to defend your actions should things go sideways.

The red band is on the clouds and weather gfa, not the icing.

[Donald]

Just listen to the crew of 604. How many pilots disagree with their decision or thought process? How many people think that what they did was a bad demonstration of pdm? How many people would have done the exact same thing?

http://archive-server.liveatc.net/cyzf/ ... -1400Z.mp3

[Axial Flow]

Maynard: I stand corrected and thank you for pointing that out. Usually that red band catches my attention and usually don't see it much up here.

Here is the TAF the pilot had prior to departure:

TAF CYZF 201142Z 2012/2112 12015KT P6SM -SN OVC010
TEMPO 2012/2015 3SM -SN BKN008 FM201500 12012G22KT 3SM -SN OVC008
PROB30 2015/2024 1SM -SN OVC004 FM210000 08012KT 6SM -SN
SCT008 BKN020 FM210600 06010KT P6SM BKN025 RMK NXT FCST
BY 201800Z=

23 Minutes after the plane went down they amended it to:

TAF AMD CYZF 201444Z 2014/2112 09012KT P6SM -SN OVC012
TEMPO 2014/2017 2SM -FZDZ -SN OVC008 FM201700 09012KT
5SM -SN OVC012
TEMPO 2017/2024 2SM -SN OVC006
PROB30 2017/2022 1SM -SHSN OVC004 FM210000 08012KT 6SM
-SN SCT008 BKN020 FM210600 06010KT P6SM BKN025 RMK NXT
FCST BY 201800Z=

It was then amended 5 more times between 0745 local till 1209 to include the continuing freezing rain and drizzle.

[Donald]

So based on that forecast, no pireps, no freezing precip occurring, how many of the perfect armchair qb's would've cancelled the flight?

[CpnCrunch]

So based on that forecast, no pireps, no freezing precip occurring, how many of the perfect armchair qb's would've cancelled the flight?

As discussed above, even based on the GFA it appears the flight was beyond the capabilities of the aircraft. Anyway, it certainly would be interesting to have a poll of actual Caravan pilots.

[Axial Flow]

Even with the narrow band of moderate ice to 14000 feet and a destination which was just overcast he probably had a good chance of having a normal flight.

Here was the metar and speci that was put out just after his departure and 3 minutes after he went down. What an idiot to go with the best information he had to go on. If this would have happened to many of us we would have probably tried to keep the thing flying and auger it in. To put down in the dark when your windscreen is covered in ice and you can't even see what is coming and keep everyone alive is a pretty amazing thing.

SPECI CYZF 201424Z 09011KT 6SM -FZDZ -SN FEW008 OVC012 M10/M12
A2964 RMK SF1ST8 SF TR SLP058=


METAR CYZF 201400Z 10012KT 12SM -SN OVC012 M10/M12 A2965
RMK SC8 SLP060=

[Donald]

"Based on the GFA"

Sorry, but after flying in the north for many years, I don't put much into GFA's unless they are forecasting very large systems (ie deep lows).

Are you familiar with the term "after-casting"? If not, see above...

[Axial Flow]

I will have to post GFA's and actual pictures out of the plane to show the accuracy. Models have hardly any weather obs to pull from up here and even less PIREPS to help forecasters. Plus the 100's of miles that are supposed to follow nice smooth lines of forecasted icing on the GFA....

First thing in the morning up here there is nobody except maybe a medevac or two to give conditions at either Inuvik or Yellowknife to figure out if the forecaster had his coffee or not.

[Cat Driver]

To put down in the dark when your windscreen is covered in ice and you can't even see what is coming and keep everyone alive is a pretty amazing thing.

Yes it was amazing that they survived.

[Illya Kuryakin]

So based on that forecast, no pireps, no freezing precip occurring, how many of the perfect armchair qb's would've cancelled the flight?

The one mile and four hundred feet would have sent me out for another coffee. But then, I'm not a huge fan of hard IFR in the Van.
Illya

[trey kule]

planemikey wrote

Apparently people can't learn or this thread wouldn't exist...

How very true.

What were the METARS and TAFs showing for Ft . simpson and Hay River at the time of departure?

I only ask because most people dont spend a great deal of time analyzing the departure airport weather, though that seems to be the case so far here.

As to forecast or not. One drop of frdz and I am in a turn, not even a minute later.
I think that just may come up when they do a calculation of where he turned back, and if there was much accumulated ice before that point.

As I posted before, I think this is going to hit the management harder than the pilot, and I was appalled by the senior management guy throwing the pilot under the bus in the news. If anyone should be looking for a new job it is him.

In any event, everyone is on the ground and safe, so time to sit back and let the TSB folks do their job...