Fed's predicting AME surplus

[Pat Richard]

http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/.4cc.5p.1t.3on ... sp?tid=101

Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors (NOCs 7314 and 7315) are projected to experience a labour surplus during the projection period.

There you have it, officially. There's too many of us for future demand.

[Big Pistons Forever]

http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/.4cc.5p.1t.3on ... sp?tid=101

Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors (NOCs 7314 and 7315) are projected to experience a labour surplus during the projection period.

There you have it, officially. There's too many of us for future demand.

Not to worry this won't slow down certain scab operators from continuing to bring in foreign temporary workers because they pay such a low wage no Canadian AME's will work for them.....

[Pat Richard]

Not to worry this won't slow down certain scab operators from continuing to bring in foreign temporary workers because they pay such a low wage no Canadian AME's will work for them.....

Yup, definitely whats been going on for almost 10 years in my experience.

Wonder if any instructors would like to comment on this? An apparent conflicting mindset would seem to be at play, lol.

[dkc77]

So of 70678 job seekers from now to 2022, 77% come from school and have no experience at all, 14% come from other trades and may have skills, but not experience on aircraft. Which leaves 8% immigration that depending on where you come from may be able to obtain an AME license quickly, maybe. So 92% of the new hires coming into aircraft maintenance over the next 7 years will requires about 4 years to obtain a license. And that article almost try's to make it sound like a good thing.

[Pat Richard]

Strangely, it does come across in an almost positive tone. I reread it a few times to make sure i understood the wording.

Not quite sure what info they're going on, but I currently see it quite the opposite.

But that's government for you.

[iflyforpie]

Yep.... all of these shortages we heard about because of changing demographics aren't coming about. The employers are gleefully changing with the demographics... shrinking their workforce and overheads with the attrition of older workers while surplus work is outsourced or TFWs are brought in....

The 'Hire Me' forum tells a sobering story of too many apprenti and not enough jobs....

[chowda]

/l\ this

I noticed the apprentice posts also. Have to say some sound near desperate.

[ramp_rat]

Oh crap! I know it's already happening! Schools are just pumping out apprentices every year, aircraft maintenance course is just becoming a business for colleges! But on the other hand, if I want to get paid for $24 at Premier Aviation, I might as well go back to school and take electrician!

[Troubleshot]

One thing I noticed over the years also is the term "risk management". A lot of Airlines would have fulltime AME's at out-stations and now you see it less and less of it. Airlines just look at the cost of an AOG vs. having a full-time line guy and parts at an out-station...I mean it makes sense really but that also contributes to less jobs out there.

Aviation has such tight margins they have no other choice but to risk manage in most cases. Also, in todays world people are simply working longer...not just in our trade.

Another point is the aircraft themselves are becoming more reliable than ever before.

[Heliian]

I wonder if they can give me the lotto numbers too. You gotta love and/or hate statistics. Regardless, there are still job openings for apprenti and engineers. We now all know that the airlines suck, so try something else. The big barrier I see here is hundreds of students coming out all wanting that big airline job in the city, well guess what, you might have to get off your ass and work for a living somewhere. It's the same for most industries, just because you have the paper doesn't mean you'll get a job.

[212wrench]

There are less students and there are less "skilled" students. I can see that industry is about to find out that unless things change there will be a significant shortage of AME's. irregardless of any articles you may read to the contrary.

[helicopterray]

And that article almost try's to make it sound like a good thing.

Strangely, it does come across in an almost positive tone. I reread it a few times to make sure i understood the wording.

The positive note means that there is an adequate supply of talent to meet the needs of industry. If the country couldn't meet the demands of industry, then there would be a problem of industries not being able to thrive.

Also keep in mind that just because someone graduates from a school doesn't mean they are capable of maintaining aircraft.
The schools ARE just a business, always have been, always will be.

[Pat Richard]

There are less students and there are less "skilled" students. I can see that industry is about to find out that unless things change there will be a significant shortage of AME's. irregardless of any articles you may read to the contrary.

Only part I disagree with is the "about to find out" bit. I feel thats well established to most in this industry, which is what made the article peculiar.
Dont know where they're getting their info.

[NeverBlue]

Also keep in mind that just because someone graduates from a school doesn't mean they are capable of maintaining aircraft.
The schools ARE just a business, always have been, always will be.

+1

How come nobody has mentioned the amount of students the High Schools and Elementary Schools are popping out. Something has to be done...there's just too many of them...where will they all get jobs?

yep...puppy mills the schools are...puppy mills.

Everybody should stop being educated right now...

[iflyforpie]

High school gives you basic skills applicable to any job.... not specialized skills only applicable to a small sliver of the job market. A BA in Philosophy is more versatile in many ways...

[212wrench]

FYI, High School enrollments are also down. Also funding from Governments are drying up as well, BC is cutting post secondary funding by $50 million in the next three years. There is a labour shortage coming. Guaranty it.

[Pat Richard]

Interesting. A high school teacher friend said the same thing a few months back.

Funny thing was, he was picketing, with one of the complaints being "too large of classroom size" .

Go figure

[NeverBlue]

That's because they are.

Cut backs have hurt the teacher population tremendously. Class sizes are growing and teachers have stopped things like coaching.
The highschool I know the best here has zero teachers coaching their sports teams. Zero...
The only teacher involved is the Music teacher...they cut her funding and now she's forced to try and raise funds herself by putting on concerts and things like that.

The other thing is there has been an upwards trend in the amount of children young families are having now. That was not predicted and some of the elementary schools were bursting at the seams this September in this area and there was no plan to deal with it at all.

[Pat Richard]

Interesting again..

My friend is a phys ed teacher, and I know for sure he still coaches more than one team, and it aint out of his own pocket or bake sales. He's a cheap ass, and when he's not teaching/coaching, he's active in sports/pub/chasing women.
Incidentely, he made the point that they're fewer and fewer younger families with high school age children. He said they're down nearly 300 in enrollment since he started at the same school over 20 years ago. The general population has significantly increased.
Anyway, interesting. Im thinking it's more likely a district by district situation. He was actually uncomfortable to be picketing. "no complaints" is what he said.

Kinda hijacked my own thread...

[NeverBlue]

I know of a highschool in another district that has to let 5 Teachers go at the Christmas break.

It 's going to get worse before it gets better.

[MZUNGO]

so back on topic...
does this AME surplus have anything to do with a certain company closing it's doors and putting a whole bunch of people out of work across the whole country?

and where does this inspector/mechanic crap come from? last time I checked we had a different system from the U.S.. ie licensed or non licensed.

[helicopterray]

and where does this inspector/mechanic crap come from?

Manufacturers.

Bell, Bombardier, etc. Mechanics/Technicians/assemblers do the work, the inspector signs it off at the completion of each stage.
It's all part of the same industry, different aspects.

[kilpicki]

Not sure I agree with the surplus stats, they can do a lot with numbers though and maybe its regarding the number of grads vs the actual jobs out there.

Personally I'm finding a shortage of experienced AME's and if you have some endorsements the rate of $45 to $50 per hr is the going rate for contract work.

[Pat Richard]

Personally I'm finding a shortage of experienced AME's and if you have some endorsements the rate of $45 to $50 per hr is the going rate for contract work.

I agree, thats exactly what I currently see, but the wage part seems a bit optimistic in my area, but I do agree that it needs to be in that range.

Someone should mention this to the agencies. Saxon and CAS, for Kelowna Flightcraft, now want to know if you live within 120km of the workplace to determine whether or not one gets $37 an hour(within 120km) or in the low 40's. This started with the saxon guys first, but has now infected CAS offerings also. Absolutely no perdium/accomadation/transportation if your out of the 120km radius.

Slowly killing the wages, but the blame also lies with the fools taking it. So there's a shortage right now-compainies/companies via agencies are driving wages down - which is completely out of sync with supply/demand, so what exactly would a bigger shortage need to be to turn it the other way? Everywhere else generally makes more attractive offers to workers when in a shortage, not the polar opposite.

Only variable is the fools who keep racing each other to the bottom, and this industry seems to have more than enough who do just that.

Thats the difference.

[NeverBlue]

Fool?