FB,
I think you're right. It will be very difficult to pinpoint where the new retirement age will end up. We can say that it is going to be higher than 60.
For starters, there will be no 65 year olds retiring in 2017 (they have already all retired), therefore progression if all the pilots go to 65 will not resume in 2017, but more like 2018 and only to handle those turning 64 (80+ at the moment) in 2017. Because there is very little concrete ACPA pilot position expansion until then, and pilots turning 60 in 2015 are overwhelmingly staying (a new trend), there is going to be very little hiring for the next 3 years.
If there were no FP60, then the ACPA ranks would be made up of approximately 260 new ACPA pilots by the end of 2015. That number will be more like 70 (including those hired in 2014).
AC has a big problem coming, and that means so does the ACPA. How are they going to train replacement ACPA pilots when they all decide to retire every year in the same month (MAY) ? Because the incentives provide extra cash dependant on the VACATION credits accumulated, one way is to use incentives to mitigate the choke point (MAY), the other is to ask the ACPA for a break on training by either using Pay-in-Lieu or some form of position pay. It is unfortunate that the ACPA doesn't get proactive with AC and start looking at solutions, but the ACPA leadership is now nothing more than an administrative team.
As I review your post, I think that replacement hiring by 2020 will be upwards of 800 (instead of 500) new ACPA pilots by 2020 (to remain the same size), but none of that hiring will happen until at least 2018. Unless, there is a major expansion of ACPA positions.
It is a real problem, and because the ACPA use a seniority system for career progression, the financial costs for training will be astronomical, but not until at least 2018. More of the ACPA pilots will FP60 as the years go by, because of the incentives to stay from the last contract, and because of the career progression system the ACPA use. Which is a shame for a new pilot, because it delays entry into the seniority system and may impede progression if the problem I'm supposing will happen. It's a system that relates progression from people leaving at the top, not people joining at the bottom.
All this changes if the EMJ stay etc., or more aircraft come before 2017 than already announced.
Say your hired by age 40....
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Re: Say your hired by age 40....
Even during the peak hiring cycles of the past, AC has never added in excess of 20-30 new-hires per month on a sustained basis in to the training system.
Sounds like AC will have to do some serious planning in order to accommodate the highest attrition rates in its history post-2017 combined with all of the equipment courses for existing AC pilots as they change aircraft type.
Still do not understand why at least a WB/NB status pay system was not considered. Add Rouge to the mix and it is just another layer of bidding/training complexity.
Sounds like AC will have to do some serious planning in order to accommodate the highest attrition rates in its history post-2017 combined with all of the equipment courses for existing AC pilots as they change aircraft type.
Still do not understand why at least a WB/NB status pay system was not considered. Add Rouge to the mix and it is just another layer of bidding/training complexity.
