C Series Update - Airbus potentially investing

[UNS1C]

Is it possible to stand up in the Cseries flight deck?
Tkz to anyone who can answer

[Nark]

Isn't that a relative question?

[Rookie50]

Wasn't the Ontario automobile industry bailed out by Mr. Harper back in 2009, or thereabouts?

Gino

You're right, and it will hopefully bear its fruits as it did with the auto industry.

Won't work this time. A billion is chump change. BBD is done, cooked like dinner.

Don't shoot just the messenger.

[Rockie]

Won't work this time. A billion is chump change. BBD is done, cooked like dinner.

Back in the 50's there was another airplane on the brink of production that would have put Canada on the map, but it was abruptly cancelled by the government and we still harp about it to this day. Let's hope governments don't make the same mistake now.

[Gino Under]

The CSeries has a very spacious flight deck.
Yes. You can stand up in it quite comfortably. It's an airliner. Not a regional jet, or a dash.

The so-called bailout is for a specific program, the C series, not the entire company. So the billion dollars shouldn't get diluted across the corporation. An additional 'bailout' from the Feds would undoubtedly be welcomed.

When you read their just released financial statement (a foreign language to me btw) it points out revenues of $4.1 billion with a backlog of $61.8 billion. Yes, the 61.8 likely won't show up in their coffers unless they can build and deliver the units they say they've sold. I suspect the 1 or 2 billion is nothing more than cash flow to pay for overhead, material and supplies to get the C series out the door and delivered. If the 61.8 starts flowing in a couple of years some of the nay sayers might just have to eat their words. C series sales are part of the 61.8, I'm sure.

I'm not so sure Bombardier's dead and buried just yet.

Gino

[Rookie50]

Gino,

It's not BBD, it's where we are in the business cycle that is my concern.

This is what I do. Not a BBD "hater".

[watermeth]

BBD is done, cooked like dinner.

Don't shoot just the messenger.

Can you elaborate please ?

[Rookie50]

BBD is done, cooked like dinner.

Don't shoot just the messenger.

Can you elaborate please ?

I write a lot on another site, bottom line bigger picture we are heading into a big recession within the next year (likely) maybe a bit longer, not just in canada. Not going to help orders.


Smaller picture is debt laden companies will not survive in their current form, BBD included, unless quebec / Canada wants to burn (many) more billions.

C series was a mistake IMO, margins are just too low in that business. Business jets are better.....

What does it say when you are at the business cycle peak, (probably) and BBD is bleeding? This is as good as it will get for organic demand, for awhile.

It's not a world where the small and weak will survive, and that is true in every industry.

[watermeth]

On which site, i'm curious ?

I agree with you on the bigger picture. If your refering to china's weak growth, decreasing use of commodities due to a lack of infrastructure devlpmt dragging down its prices, and expected fed's interest rate increase - provided it happens at the right time (which I personnaly ignore when that will be) - we still don't know when exactly this crisis will materialize itself.

During that time, I guess there is room for solution searching and as of yet bbd hasn't explored all possible avenues. The fact that beaudoin's family keeps a majority in voting shares has been cited numerous times as being a factor preventing institutions to invest in the company. Above debts, board governence is a far bigger problem because that's the current one who dragged bbd to such a lack of equilibrium reflected on its consolidated statement. Concerning this, the november 28 investorws meeting will be paramount.
Foregetting the lj85 program is a good thing, the 1b$ from quebec's gvnmt is a quick fix, we - personnaly I didn't dig that far yet - don't know when bbd's debt will reach maturity (and its composition).

I like to look at chrysler and see how this company was re-born from its ashes. There are many other exemples of successfull companies bailed out during 2008 which are now back in the black.

To compare, some airlines in canada are showing way worth longterm debt/equities ratio than bbd and are still operating. AC is showing 130%, AT nearly 100% including its off balance sheet statement.

I agree with your analysis concerning smaller players and their indebtedness, I try to keep the blue side up even if it may sound naive

[Rookie50]

Water, I write a lot on seekingalpha. Mostly US stocks, I don't trade in Canada. pm if you wish to follow there.

Really comes down to weak worldwide organic economic demand, which is poor demographics, and massive debt loads, worldwide. Yes, I'm concerned about China, too.

I don't pretend to know BBD really well, just examining the Macro. I'd love things to be rosy, but have to call it the way I see it.

We are worse off than in 2008, as the bullets have been shot, but the debt and structural remain.

I'd sell AC if I owned it, too folks. Take the money.

[C208]

Are you on Stockhouse too? Its a bit of a zoo, but its entertaining, much like avcanada sometimes.......

[Rookie50]

Are you on Stockhouse too? Its a bit of a zoo, but its entertaining, much like avcanada sometimes.......

No. I'm Canadian but am pretty US focused. Seekingalpha has some pretty smart people on it

Not me

[Gino Under]

Interesting thread.

But who are we to believe?
Obviously, there are airlines out there looking for and buying aircraft who aren't listening to or looking for signs of a recession. I've been reading about an impending recession for quite awhile. I suspect it's safe to say we'll have one one day. Nothing yet. Looks like Bombardiers imminent failure could be delayed for now, as companies out there are obviously buying aeroplanes. I should think some of them are looking at and likely to buy C Series.

Those discounted Airbuses and Boeings aren't that far apart in price to the C series. Are they? I wouldn't know.


Gino

[Rookie50]

https://www.cibc.com/ca/imperial-servic ... rvice-E120

Don't believe this.

Forgive the thread drift -- Seriously, this is where most Canadians get their advice. From a Bank. From someone with a JOB. Which means someone not financially independent. How much sense is that? Would you get your ATPL from a puppy farm flight school? No, you'ed want success. Won't find the answers at a bank.

My advice -- find someone without a Job, who isn't an advisor and tells you to get lost when asking for advice. That's who you listen too.

[Rockie]

Rookie

Governments invest in infrastructure during bad economic times (or at least should) because it has to be done sometime, and if you do it during a slow down it helps sustain employment. I'm interested in your opinion on whether commercial companies should, and/or do, position themselves to be ready and first out of the gate when the economy picks up?

As it relates to BBD, doesn't it make sense for governments to carry them through until orders pick up and any downturn reverses?

[Rookie50]

Rockie -- good question. Not sure I have a great answer. As a proud Canadian, of course I want BBD to succeed. I also think govt's should invest in infrastructure.

However, BBD has always struggled. As an investor I would not put in a dime.

I'm a bit torn on support for BBD GM and the like. I used to be outright against, now I'm mixed. Govt's need to be careful picking winners. We can't afford it.

My greater, longer term concern is the increasing govt debt loads from support of such agendas.

I'm convinced this will become an issue at some point.

[Gino Under]

But aren't Governments and Banks the ones with the money?
Invesrment capitalists don't always get it right either. That's the problem with your theory.
I can't conclude Mr. Buffet and people like him always gets it right. They don't.

quote:
Canada's economy grew a moderate 0.1 per cent in August, Statistics Canada reported Friday, suggesting the bounce-back from recession that happened this summer is losing steam.

"After the strong rebound in June/July, it’s back to reality for the Canadian economy now," CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a client note. "And that reality appears to be very modest growth."
-Huffington Post

Investment advisors are akin to fortune tellers. Albeit, the adviser has the better track record. BBD hasn't always struggled and it has been a good investment in the past. Research their stock price during the CRJ program's prime back in 2000.
Whatever happened to the investor edict, buy low sell high. Their stock price looks awfully attractive to me right now.

Gino