North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 2015

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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote: I'm still waiting to hear a convincing argument why you're right and these 197 scientific organizations are wrong:


197.Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
I promise never to challenge this organization again.

However, so far the only thing I have challenged is the assertion repeated over and over again by you that 97% of scientists say that global warming is man-made. I am still waiting for your proof.

You start with statements from every scientist in Zimbabwe.

I like this one too.....American Academy of Pediatrics. I guess they are part of the 97%. Peer reviewing and therefore knowing more than any of us.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

pelmet wrote:
Rockie wrote: I'm still waiting to hear a convincing argument why you're right and these 197 scientific organizations are wrong:


197.Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
I promise never to challenge this organization again.
Good thing, because in a real challenge they'd mop the floor with a peanut gallery amateur like you.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by crazyaviator »

Well said "the church of climatology" as both are cults ! How can a person walk into a christian denomination and ask whether it is a cult? you cant,,,that is WHY they are there, they believe that all the other churches are cults and theirs isnt :roll: The same with climate change, very few wish to take in all the facts and not pick sides. Most humans cannot be uncommital on most things, therefore they need to be either / or, this is why politics is soo successful and why indoctrination into climate change and gun registration and bombing the middle east to smithereens is soo successful :rolleyes:
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote:
pelmet wrote:
Rockie wrote: I'm still waiting to hear a convincing argument why you're right and these 197 scientific organizations are wrong:


197.Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
I promise never to challenge this organization again.
Good thing, because in a real challenge they'd mop the floor with a peanut gallery amateur like you.
Hardly any proof from you about the main part of your argument. That 97% of ALL scientists believe that global warming is man made. Once again, you are lying(or very lacking in knowledge) and all on here need to be aware of this, although it is obvious.

Peanut Galley Amateur is a good description for this argument.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by goldeneagle »

Rockie wrote:evolution and relativity are just theories
They are just that, theories, and they happen to be a couple of the theories that have withstood testing and are currently accepted as 'best theory to fit the data from observations'.

But, they are still just theories. If you understood the scientific method, you too would realize that. In general, 'science' doesn't prove anything, the way it works is exactly the opposite. Theories are presented which provide some form of predictable outcomes when tested, then the tests are done. When testing shows the predictions to be correct, the theory remains a valid theory. When tests show otherwise, it is discarded. How strongly any given theory is supported by various folks in field, depends entirely on it's ability to predict outcomes.

Using your own example of relativity, it is a theory from which the math provides decent predictions of outcomes, but they aren't always exactly correct. In rather simple terms, we started off with newtonian physics as a means of explaining the reaction between bodies known as gravity. Nobody disputes the issue of wether or not there is those bodies interact in some way, plenty of dispute / pondering these days of what causes it. Newtonian physics provided the best mathematical method of explaining and understanding initially, and provided equations that would reliably predict trajectories, except there were some puzzling spots where the math and the observations didn't quite add up. Along came general relativity, which provided a mathematical model that fit the newtonian models, but also provided a basis for understanding and correctly predicting the outliers for those models. That reduced the number of outliers, didn't eliminate them. Later, special relativity provided some explanation for those outliers, and ultimately was accepted as the model with the best predictive power, but there are still outliers.

At some point in time, there will be new theories that displace relativity, this is a given. The reason for this is strait forward. Newtonian physics provides a mathematical model that well explains things at human comprehension scales in terms of dimension and time. Relativity provide more mathematical basis that provides models which work better at much larger scales and velocities. But both fall apart when you look at physical things at extremely small (atomic and subatomic particle) scales. In that realm, a whole different set of theories come about which provide better predictive power at small scale. Problem with those theories, the math falls apart when you try scale them up to large scales.

The holy grail in physics today, is to come up with a new mathematical model that provides correct predictions at both small, and large scale. When that does come about, relativity will get kicked to the curb right beside the aether and the flat earth. But, until that happens, they are the working models that provide predictions that fit the observed data better than any of the other theories that have been presented over the millenia.

I keep reading the comment 'the science is settled', but it just shows, those using that terminology dont understand the science at all. The science is NEVER settled, there is always a quest ongoing to come up with new / better models that provide more accurate predictions of outcomes. Science never proves anything, what it does, is disprove things until only a few working theories are left, those that provide the best outcome predictions. But as long as they dont provide correct outcome predictions in all cases, there will be a quest to find a better mathematical model. In physics, this process is ongoing.

The only folks that profess 'the science is settled' are those who believe, we know everything we need to know, and we shouldn't be investigating to find out just what is wrong with what current theories predict. And that's where it ceases to be a quest for knowledge, and starts to become 'faith'.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by B208 »

goldeneagle wrote:
Rockie wrote:evolution and relativity are just theories
The only folks that profess 'the science is settled' are those who believe, we know everything we need to know, and we shouldn't be investigating to find out just what is wrong with what current theories predict. And that's where it ceases to be a quest for knowledge, and starts to become 'faith'.
:smt023
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by pelmet »

B208 wrote:
goldeneagle wrote:
Rockie wrote:evolution and relativity are just theories
The only folks that profess 'the science is settled' are those who believe, we know everything we need to know, and we shouldn't be investigating to find out just what is wrong with what current theories predict. And that's where it ceases to be a quest for knowledge, and starts to become 'faith'.
:smt023
And when the hysterical predictions of how warm it is going to get and all the effects doesn't always work out, the settled science comes up with new theories.

It was quite warming the last half of the year(due to NATURAL global warming) and the worriers say "See, I told you so". But when it is record cold winters like the last one we had, they make up a new addition to the settled science. It is colder due to global warming. "Don't you believe in science? 97% of the world's scientist do". When there is some flooding or a big storm, the worriers say "See, I told you so" as if we didn't have floods before but when you see how few Hurricanes have hit North America in the last decade or the record low tornadoes of the last few years, they change the subject. The great lakes levels are going down like they did a few years ago for several years, well, out come the strong hints that it might just be global warming. They start to rise again....next subject please as there was a storm in the Phillippines.

You are being lied to and are being mislead.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Meatservo »

Most of you are getting mixed up between what you WANT to be true and what IS true. And there's no shame in that, scientists do it all the time.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by vanNostrum »

I believe the science was also settle in the 70s


“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” — Harvard biologist George Wald

“We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” — Washington University biologist Barry Commoner

“Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.” — New York Times editorial

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich

“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” — Paul Ehrlich Biologist

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day

“Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter

“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” — Life magazine

“At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

“Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” — Paul Ehrlich

“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

“[One] theory assumes that the earth’s cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun’s heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” — Newsweek magazine

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” Ecologist Kenneth Watt
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

יחזקאל ו
א ויהי דבר-יהוה אלי לאמר:
1 And the word of the Lord came to me, saying,
ב בן-אדם שים פניך אל-הרי ישראל והנבא אליהם:
2 Son of man, set your face toward the mountains of Israel, and prophesy against them,
ג ואמרת הרי ישראל שמעו דבר-אדני יהוה כה-אמר אדני יהוה להרים ולגבעות לאפיקים ולגאית [ולגאיות] הנני אני מביא עליכם חרב ואבדתי במותיכם:
3 (K) And say, You mountains of Israel, hear the word of the Lord God; Thus said the Lord God to the mountains, and to the hills, to the ravines, and to the valleys; Behold, I will bring a sword upon you, and I will destroy your high places.
ד ונשמו מזבחותיכם ונשברו חמניכם והפלתי חלליכם לפני גלוליכם:
4 And your altars shall be desolate, and your images shall be broken; and I will cast down your slain men before your idols.
ה ונתתי את-פגרי בני ישראל לפני גלוליהם וזריתי את-עצמותיכם סביבות מזבחותיכם:
5 And I will lay the dead carcasses of the people of Israel before their idols; and I will scatter your bones around your altars.
ו בכל מושבותיכם הערים תחרבנה והבמות תישמנה למען יחרבו ויאשמו מזבחותיכם ונשברו ונשבתו גלוליכם ונגדעו חמניכם ונמחו מעשיכם:
6 In all your dwelling places the cities shall be laid waste, and the high places shall be desolate; that your altars may be laid waste and made desolate, and your idols may be broken and cease, and your images may be cut down, and your works may be wiped out.
ז ונפל חלל בתוככם וידעתם כי-אני יהוה:
7 And the slain shall fall in the midst of you, and you shall know that I am the Lord.
ח והותרתי בהיות לכם פליטי חרב בגוים בהזרותיכם בארצות:


Ezekiel 6:1-7
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by rxl »

goldeneagle wrote:
Rockie wrote:evolution and relativity are just theories
They are just that, theories, and they happen to be a couple of the theories that have withstood testing and are currently accepted as 'best theory to fit the data from observations'.

But, they are still just theories. If you understood the scientific method, you too would realize that. In general, 'science' doesn't prove anything, the way it works is exactly the opposite. Theories are presented which provide some form of predictable outcomes when tested, then the tests are done. When testing shows the predictions to be correct, the theory remains a valid theory. When tests show otherwise, it is discarded. How strongly any given theory is supported by various folks in field, depends entirely on it's ability to predict outcomes.

Using your own example of relativity, it is a theory from which the math provides decent predictions of outcomes, but they aren't always exactly correct. In rather simple terms, we started off with newtonian physics as a means of explaining the reaction between bodies known as gravity. Nobody disputes the issue of wether or not there is those bodies interact in some way, plenty of dispute / pondering these days of what causes it. Newtonian physics provided the best mathematical method of explaining and understanding initially, and provided equations that would reliably predict trajectories, except there were some puzzling spots where the math and the observations didn't quite add up. Along came general relativity, which provided a mathematical model that fit the newtonian models, but also provided a basis for understanding and correctly predicting the outliers for those models. That reduced the number of outliers, didn't eliminate them. Later, special relativity provided some explanation for those outliers, and ultimately was accepted as the model with the best predictive power, but there are still outliers.

At some point in time, there will be new theories that displace relativity, this is a given. The reason for this is strait forward. Newtonian physics provides a mathematical model that well explains things at human comprehension scales in terms of dimension and time. Relativity provide more mathematical basis that provides models which work better at much larger scales and velocities. But both fall apart when you look at physical things at extremely small (atomic and subatomic particle) scales. In that realm, a whole different set of theories come about which provide better predictive power at small scale. Problem with those theories, the math falls apart when you try scale them up to large scales.

The holy grail in physics today, is to come up with a new mathematical model that provides correct predictions at both small, and large scale. When that does come about, relativity will get kicked to the curb right beside the aether and the flat earth. But, until that happens, they are the working models that provide predictions that fit the observed data better than any of the other theories that have been presented over the millenia.

I keep reading the comment 'the science is settled', but it just shows, those using that terminology dont understand the science at all. The science is NEVER settled, there is always a quest ongoing to come up with new / better models that provide more accurate predictions of outcomes. Science never proves anything, what it does, is disprove things until only a few working theories are left, those that provide the best outcome predictions. But as long as they dont provide correct outcome predictions in all cases, there will be a quest to find a better mathematical model. In physics, this process is ongoing.

The only folks that profess 'the science is settled' are those who believe, we know everything we need to know, and we shouldn't be investigating to find out just what is wrong with what current theories predict. And that's where it ceases to be a quest for knowledge, and starts to become 'faith'.
All very interesting and can't argue with most of what you say, but we don't live our lives at the quantum level. We have to deal with "classical" realities - ie. if you step off of a 200' cliff, the science IS settled on what will happen next.
Is man made global warming a reality?
The UN and world leadership seem to think so.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

That the UN and world leadership think it is a reality is NOT evidence that it is a reality.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by 7ECA »

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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by rxl »

photofly wrote:That the UN and world leadership think it is a reality is NOT evidence that it is a reality.
Obviously it's not. It's an opinion. Whether you think the UN and world leadership is right or wrong, we will have to deal in some way with the reality that results from their endorsement.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

goldeneagle wrote:They are just that, theories, and they happen to be a couple of the theories that have withstood testing and are currently accepted as 'best theory to fit the data from observations'.But, they are still just theories. If you understood the scientific method, you too would realize that. In general, 'science' doesn't prove anything, the way it works is exactly the opposite. Theories are presented which provide some form of predictable outcomes when tested, then the tests are done. When testing shows the predictions to be correct, the theory remains a valid theory. When tests show otherwise, it is discarded. How strongly any given theory is supported by various folks in field, depends entirely on it's ability to predict outcomes.
I know how scientific method works but you're using semantics for a non-argument. Without compensating for relativity the GPS system wouldn't work. There's something called radio wave theory, but radios and cell phones don't seem to care that it's called "theory". Evolution is called a "theory", but by now nobody who understands the scientific method doubts it as fact. The only ones who do either have insufficient understanding of the scientific method and/or have been told otherwise by their faith. It's called faith because it is a blindly held belief unsubstantiated in any way by evidence.

Here's what Richard Dawkins says about that. Read his book "Greatest show on earth".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW1Lpa23mOw
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

photofly wrote:That the UN and world leadership think it is a reality is NOT evidence that it is a reality.
Science thinks it's a reality because they do have the evidence, which is why the UN and increasingly the world's leadership does. It's only people driven by ideology instead of scientific evidence, or people with more self-serving interests who reject the climate science.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

Rockie wrote:
photofly wrote:That the UN and world leadership think it is a reality is NOT evidence that it is a reality.
Science thinks it's a reality because they do have the evidence, which is why the UN and increasingly the world's leadership does.
Only an ignorant person speaks of "science" as a monolith with only one voice. (Please don't give the 97% crap again.)
It's only people driven by ideology instead of scientific evidence, or people with more self-serving interests who reject the climate science.
We should be clear that that's your ill-informed opinion, masquerading as a fact. In reality until you ask them all, you have no idea why people who reject the climate "science" do so.

It's helpful to you to discredit people who disagree with you as "driven by ideology" and "self-serving" because it helps you feel better about soapboxing at them and ignoring their opinions.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

photofly wrote:Only an ignorant person speaks of "science" as a monolith with only one voice.
Very true. Such a person couldn't be bothered to look up the definition of "science" either. There's a partial list of those voices (plural) you speak of on the previous page of this thread.
photofly wrote:We should be clear that that's your ill-informed opinion,
It's an observation....different thing entirely. There may be other reasons to reject science in favour of something else but in this particular case those are the two most overwhelming ones.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by plhought »

Uhh...

Just to point this out (if it hasn't already)...

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/tom ... north-pole

It was the temperature in the town of North Pole, Alaska that was reported above and sparked the flurry of news articles. Not the actual temperature at the geographic North Pole. I guess it did go positive briefly though.

..but watching this train-wreck of a thread has been entertaining...

Image

You all may continue
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Last edited by plhought on Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

Rockie wrote:
photofly wrote:We should be clear that that's your ill-informed opinion,
It's an observation....different thing entirely. There may be other reasons to reject science in favour of something else but in this particular case those are the two most overwhelming ones.
Personal observations of other people's behaviour are full of unconscious bias. You see in other people what you want to see and what makes you feel better about yourself and your own ideologies and self-interests.

Unless you're Jesus, or Mother Theresa. Are you either of those people?
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by digits_ »

rxl wrote: All very interesting and can't argue with most of what you say, but we don't live our lives at the quantum level. We have to deal with "classical" realities - ie. if you step off of a 200' cliff, the science predicts within useful accuracy on what will happen next.
Is man made global warming a reality?
The UN and world leadership seem to think so.
Changed it a bit
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

plhought wrote:It was the temperature in the town of North Pole, Alaska that was reported above and sparked the flurry of news articles. Not the actual temperature at the geographic North Pole. I guess it did go positive briefly though.
If you read the article in the first post of this thread it speaks exclusively of the North Pole, it doesn't mention the town of North Pole Alaska.
photofly wrote:You see in other people what you want to see and what makes you feel better about yourself and your own ideologies and self-interests.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Oh wait - that is what I said.
What are your reasons for rejecting science?
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

Rockie wrote:
photofly wrote:You see in other people what you want to see and what makes you feel better about yourself and your own ideologies and self-interests.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Oh wait - that is what I said.
What are your reasons for rejecting science?
When will you stop beating your wife?
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by Rockie »

photofly wrote:When will you stop beating your wife?
As a supporting argument it falls short...
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Re: North Pole temperature above freezing - December 30, 201

Post by photofly »

It's probably not unconnected with the fact that every time I see or hear David Suzuki I throw up in my mouth a little bit.
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