Canadian Piper PA-28 down in Pennsylvania

[fleet16b]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ ... -1.3809682

[Spirit]

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=190720

[nbinont]

http://stcatharinesflyingclub.com/press-release/

Condolences to all involved.

The St. Catharines Flying Club is saddened to announce the loss of one of its single engine Piper Warrior aircraft.

The accident occurred in a wooded area of northern Pennsylvania shortly before 9pm EDT during the evening of October 16th, 2016.

The aircraft was located after an extensive ground and air search by local Pennsylvania authorities, which was initially hampered by darkness and poor weather. All three occupants of the aircraft were pronounced dead at the scene.

There are no firm details with respect to the cause of the accident which was trailing behind a nearly identical flying club aircraft at the time it lost contact with Air Traffic Control and disappeared from radar. Both aircraft had departed Richmond International Airport in Virginia and were proceeding to the Niagara District Airport located in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, the leading aircraft landing safely at the destination. The Club will cooperate fully with US and Canadian authorities to facilitate any further investigation.

The names of the occupants are:
Rifat Tawfit, 25, of Niagara Falls.
Corey Mijac, 18, of St. Catharines.
Ben Jeffries, 19, of Niagara-on-the-Lake.

We wish to extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims as we all grief at this difficult time.

[CpnCrunch]

From looking at the weather radar at the time and METARs from nearby airports, it looks like they might have been picking their way through a line of thunderstorms IFR. It will be interesting to hear what kind of help they got from ATC.

[PilotDAR]

Global News has expressed a "hope" that the accident aircraft had a flight data and cockpit voice recorder. I think they will be disappointed.

[Rookie50]

From looking at the weather radar at the time and METARs from nearby airports, it looks like they were picking their way through a line of thunderstorms IFR. It will be interesting to hear what kind of help they got from ATC.

Even with helpful ATC that is tricky business without NEXRAD, and even that isn't foolproof due to the delay -- (can be 5 minutes delayed) --also different ATC centres can have different weather painting capability.

Not speculating, my condolences for the loss of these young folks.

[photofly]

I should like to hear about the conditions from the occupants of the club's other aircraft that was shortly ahead of the accident plane on the same route at the same time.

[fixedpitch]

I should like to hear about the conditions from the occupants of the club's other aircraft that was shortly ahead of the accident plane on the same route at the same time.

Night IFR in potentially stormy conditions...pretty sporty for low-timers at a flying club.

[5x5]

'His dream was to fly'; Niagara, Ont. plane crash victims remembered

BY MARYANNE FIRTH, ST. CATHARINES STANDARD
FIRST POSTED: WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2016 05:17 AM MDT | UPDATED: WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2016 05:22 AM MDT

Three young Niagara men are being remembered for their love of aviation after a tragic plane crash in rural, mountainous northwestern Pennsylvania.

Corey Mijac, 18, Ben Jeffries, 19, and Rifat Tawfig, 25, were killed in the crash Sunday night.

The wreckage of their plane, a small Canadian-registered Piper PA-28 Cherokee, was discovered by a search and rescue team the following day. The aircraft had been bound for Niagara District Airport in Niagara-on-the-Lake after departing from Richmond, Va.
Mijac and Jeffries, both recent graduates of Governor Simcoe Secondary School, are from St. Catharines and Niagara-on-the-Lake respectively. Tawfig is from Niagara Falls.

Both teens were students at St. Catharines Flying Club, where Tawfig worked as an instructor. Club spokesman Conrad Hatcher said the trio were in one of five planes returning back from several days of training in Myrtle Beach, S.C. “It was a trip to gain experience, have a little adventure. You learn a bunch of things when you travel,” he said, adding it’s a journey the club has made many times over the years. Some of those planes returned a day earlier than planned, but the Cherokee and another near identical aircraft remained in South Carolina before departing Sunday.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration lost radio contact with the plane over Potter County, Pa., at about 7 p.m. Sunday. It disappeared from radar at that time.Hatcher said the aircraft was about 20 minutes behind another plane from the club, that took off from the same Richmond fuelling stop. “They were preceded by one of our flying club airplanes. It flew the exact same route with no difficulty, which adds to the mystery.”

As for reports of inclement weather, Hatcher said there may have been some rain on course, but not a “full-blown thunderstorm” as some media outlets have reported. “That’s a big difference when you’re flying an airplane. Rain is easily dealt with and thunderstorms are something you definitely want to avoid.” He has heard no details about what may have caused the crash. “The facts are pretty bare right now. What we don’t know is much bigger than what we do know,” he said.

Hatcher spoke highly of the three young men, whom he had each come to know during their time with the club. Tawfig earned his instructor qualification earlier this year. The instrument-rated pilot had about 400 hours under his belt. “He was well-qualified to do this,” Hatcher, also a flying instructor, said, adding Tawfig would have been the one “in charge” on the aircraft. “We think it was Ben Jeffries that was the other one in the front seat and Corey in the passenger seat in the back.” Tawfig was an avid flyer who loved to share his passion with others. “If you looked at his Facebook page, it’s all airplanes,” Hatcher said. “His dream was to fly for an airline, preferably in the Middle East.” His family is from Saudi Arabia. “The thing that everybody says about Rifat is how nice a guy he was. He was very kind, popular with the students,” Hatcher said. The 6-foot-5 instructor was known to many as a “gentle giant,” he added.

Mijac and Jeffries were also no strangers to the club, where they attended ground school and spent much of their spare time. Mijac even completed a high school co-op placement at the facility, located at Niagara District Airport. “Corey was one of those guys that could always make you smile,” Hatcher said. “He was always smiling, generally a happy person. Smart kid. Artistic. Athletic. The whole package.” He had been coming to the club since he was 14 or 15 years old.

Jeffries had discovered a love for flying after his own father took lessons with the club, Hatcher said. “I think he’d recently decided he was going to take flying a little more seriously and was here several times a week,” he said, adding he was always “very pleasant” to be around. “We thought maybe he was going to become a commercial pilot.”

Neither Jeffries nor Mijac had completed all the requirements to obtain their pilot’s licence, “but both were on that path and were fairly close,” Hatcher said. “Both had made their first solo flights a while ago.”

Tributes to Mijac, Jeffries and Tawfig flooded social media Tuesday, including on their Facebook pages, with kind words and memories. “It’s tragic. People will say, well why did it happen? We don’t know. We may never know,” Hatcher said. “Everybody would like to have an answer.” The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the crash. “We all know intellectually that anything like flying, driving or boating carries a certain amount of risk. You can only manage it, you can’t eliminate it,” Hatcher said.

News of the tragedy has hit the club, whose members become a family of sorts, quite hard. The facility’s doors will be closed until at least Saturday, if not longer, out of respect for the three men and their families, Hatcher said. The closure is also in place to prevent flight instructors, who may be experiencing shock, from taking off, he said. Funeral details have yet to be released. The club will remain closed until all three ceremonies have been completed. Hatcher said the club will plan something to honour the three young men.

“We’re still in the shock stage and we haven’t decided what that’s going to be, but we have begun talking about several ideas,” he said. “It’s just a matter of getting the board members together and deciding what would be appropriate.”

mfirth@postmedia.com

[CpnCrunch]

Regarding the weather: here is the METAR from KSYR an hour before the crash:

SPECI KSYR 162303Z 31009KT 3SM +TSRA BR SCT040 BKN049CB OVC060
18/17 A2992 RMK AO2 VIS 2 NW LTG DSNT NE OCNL
LTGICCC W-SW TS OHD-SW-W MOV SE P0009 T01780172=

The radar for the time of the crash shows a line of heavy precipitation:

http://imgur.com/a/n4ga0

I've marked their position with a black box. They were at the centre of it, in the yellow/orange precipitation. The main thunderstorm activity was to the east, with the red returns, and they were diverting around the storms, although it looks like they still flew through an area of high precipitation.

So, perhaps someone with more experience than me of weather radar can answer the question: what type of weather would you expect if you flew through that yellow/orange area of precip in a PA-28?

[MrWings]

This is sad. Those time building trips with buddies were always a good time Condolences.

[Rookie50]

Regarding the weather: here is the METAR from KSYR an hour before the crash:

SPECI KSYR 162303Z 31009KT 3SM +TSRA BR SCT040 BKN049CB OVC060
18/17 A2992 RMK AO2 VIS 2 NW LTG DSNT NE OCNL
LTGICCC W-SW TS OHD-SW-W MOV SE P0009 T01780172=

The radar for the time of the crash shows a line of heavy precipitation:

http://imgur.com/a/n4ga0

I've marked their position with a black box. They were at the centre of it, in the yellow/orange precipitation. The main thunderstorm activity was to the east, with the red returns, and they were diverting around the storms, although it looks like they still flew through an area of high precipitation.

So, perhaps someone with more experience than me of weather radar can answer the question: what type of weather would you expect if you flew through that yellow/orange area of precip in a PA-28?

Assuming the same parameters as a nexrad display -- yellow can get rough and be moderate precip. Can also change to red without warning. Green is much safer, generally lighter precip and turbulance. That is quite a concerning line by the looks of the picture, especially if it was dark / IFR embedded.

I've experienced weather in almost that exact spot, east of lake Erie, with NEXRAD and a stormscope, visual daytime, and was shocked how fast it changed. Condolences, very sad.

Note I don't know the PA 28 or how this one was equipped, nor anything about this incident. General weather comments.

[fixedpitch]

Assuming the same parameters as a nexrad display -- yellow can get rough and be moderate precip. Can also change to red without warning. Green is much safer, generally lighter precip and turbulance. That is quite a concerning line by the looks of the picture, especially if it was dark / IFR embedded.

Rookie50,

Don't you own a PA28? Sorry in advance if I got that wrong. But I recall reading somewhere that heavy rain can screw up a Cherokee's vacuum pump.

[linecrew]

Regarding the weather: here is the METAR from KSYR an hour before the crash:

SPECI KSYR 162303Z 31009KT 3SM +TSRA BR SCT040 BKN049CB OVC060
18/17 A2992 RMK AO2 VIS 2 NW LTG DSNT NE OCNL
LTGICCC W-SW TS OHD-SW-W MOV SE P0009 T01780172=

The radar for the time of the crash shows a line of heavy precipitation:

http://imgur.com/a/n4ga0

I've marked their position with a black box. They were at the centre of it, in the yellow/orange precipitation. The main thunderstorm activity was to the east, with the red returns, and they were diverting around the storms, although it looks like they still flew through an area of high precipitation.

So, perhaps someone with more experience than me of weather radar can answer the question: what type of weather would you expect if you flew through that yellow/orange area of precip in a PA-28?

Assuming the same parameters as a nexrad display -- yellow can get rough and be moderate precip. Can also change to red without warning. Green is much safer, generally lighter precip and turbulence. That is quite a concerning line by the looks of the picture, especially if it was dark / IFR embedded.

I've experienced weather in almost that exact spot, east of lake Erie, with NEXRAD and a stormscope, visual daytime, and was shocked how fast it changed. Condolences, very sad.

Note I don't know the PA 28 or how this one was equipped, nor anything about this incident. General weather comments.

For what it's worth, whatever the weather source used by FlightAware, they show a discrepancy between the point where the flight stops and where the line of bad weather is depicted at the time of the accident. Makes me wonder what weather source the pilots were using and if it had the same location error for the line.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CGYS ... /KRIC/CYSN

[Lotro]

My condolences. This is awful.

Some discussion here on Reddit, including someone who suggests based on hearsay that plane encountered freezing rain:

https://www.reddit.com/r/flying/comment ... there_was/

RIP

[Rookie50]

Again, not speculating, there is one common word that troubles me seeing it, in so many of these weather related reports:

Night.

[photofly]

Here is the skewT/logP plot of the NOAA's most accurate analysis for the atmospheric conditions at KBUF at the time of the accident (8pm EDT 16 October, 0000Z 17 October):

Screen Shot 2016-10-21 at 3.53.59 AM.png (149.36 KiB) Viewed 5890 times

KROC and KELM are not significantly different.

Assuming I pulled the data for the correct time and date, the freezing level was at 689mb (about 11,000MSL) and at the logged altitude of 6000' the temperature was about +10C. Hard to support FZRA in those conditions.

[CpnCrunch]

Assuming I pulled the data for the correct time and date, the freezing level was at 689mb (about 11,000MSL) and at the logged altitude of 6000' the temperature was about +10C. Hard to support FZRA in those conditions.

Also, the Canadian icing chart shows the freezing level between 10,000 and 12,500ft north of the border. I guess it's possible that it wasn't forecast. However this is just some random guy on reddit saying this.

They were likely in towering cumulus, and the forecast says the usual "CB TCU AND ACC IMPLY SIG TURB AND ICE". Would that apply even below the freezing level? (The turbulence would also be a concern).

And if they were actually in freezing rain (with a flight instructor on-board) it seems unlikely that they would just continue.

[CpnCrunch]

Rookie50,

Don't you own a PA28? Sorry in advance if I got that wrong. But I recall reading somewhere that heavy rain can screw up a Cherokee's vacuum pump.

He owns a 182 retract. I've never heard of rain screwing up the vacuum pump. Do you mean the pitot tube?

[anofly]

This one should have been getting regular FSS updates about whats ahead.The loss of communication if true is baffling. did he turn it off?
The "landscape" around the crash site is not all that friendly in the daytime. so it is not really great terrain on a smooth clear night.
While one might try to pick through that weather system in day vfr conditions, i think most folks would rather avoid it at night. I certainly might take a look in the daytime,but would have little interest in going in at night. I might have made an end run around it at night, but thats not an easy thing to plan while airborne heading north for 3 hours. My sincere condolences....

[CpnCrunch]

While one might try to pick through that weather system in day vfr conditions, i think most folks would rather avoid it at night. I certainly might take a look in the daytime,but would have little interest in going in at night. I might have made an end run around it at night, but thats not an easy thing to plan while airborne heading north for 3 hours. My sincere condolences....

While that's true in hindsight, we don't really know what weather forecast they saw beforehand. The US doesn't have any GFAs...they just have text area forecasts, which aren't as easy to interpret. (They are just about to introduce something similar to GFAs soon, I believe). Even with a GFA it's usually somewhat vague...it's certainly not going to pinpoint a line of thunderstorms for you 6 hours in advance.

What I'm saying is that perhaps the forecast didn't look too bad (chance of thunderstorms over a large area, which maybe appeared earlier than forecast). Then, once in the thick of things they decided to carry on, perhaps not realising how bad it was. The instructor had 400 hours, so how much time did he have in actual IMC, and how many times had he planned IFR flights like this?

[photofly]

To be clear: this was not a time building jolly - this was an instructor and two students. Students don't need to build time, they need to pass the requirements for the PPL then get out there alone and expand their experience gently. Starting in good day VFR.

Now I have a few questions I hope someone can answer:

Was the guy in the left seat one of the students who didn't have his PPL yet? Was the 400 hour instructor supervising a pre-PPL student in night IMC in doubtful weather from the right seat? Did the airplane have an autopilot?

The aircraft went down to Florida under VFR, but came back filed IFR all the way. Why? What was the topic of discussion during the nearly three hour layover in Richmond? Why did nobody say "screw the fact that two of us need to be at work tomorrow, one of us has students in St Catherine's at 8:30am and the plane is booked solid all day. The weather is iffy and it's going to get dark out, we stay the night here and come back tomorrow, or even the next day"?

PPL students can't log time at night. Who thought it would be in the students interests to continue the flight past dark? Or even to begin the flight knowing it would continue past dark?

The instructor who died - held a class IV rating. Who was his supervising Class I or II instructor? St Catherine's Flying Club has three Class I instructors and two Class II's, out of a total of eight (now seven). They're not short of qualified supervisory staff. Who signed off on this? Were they in the other aircraft? What supervision was provided over the planning and execution of this multi-hour day-to-night IFR cross country with two pre-PPL students in a foreign country through bad weather?

What were they even doing in South Carolina in the first place? PPL training? Who was in charge? Is Myrtle Beach, SC to Richmond, VA to CYSN a TC-sanctioned cross country route for this school's PPL training syllabus?

"He said the three young men had been on a sort of field trip in South Carolina since Wednesday.

The flight down there and back "wasn't part of any sort of curriculum," Hatcher said, but was a social and educational outing, several of which the club has organized in the past. "It's like a little adventure," Hatcher said."

WTF are two student pilots and a trainee instructor doing on a "sort of field trip"?

How can anyone possibly believe that you can put two students and an instructor - and a trainee instructor at that - in a plane for eight hours flying down to South Carolina and eight hours flying back and NOT have any instruction going on?

What exactly is an "educational outing"? If this is a common occurrence, how does all this flight time get logged? Who pays and gets paid for it?

How is it possible that any right-thinking iindividual responsible for oversight here lets this happen?

"Little adventure"??? I'll say.

[PilotDAR]

The weather is iffy and it's going to get dark out, we stay the night here and come back tomorrow, or even the next day"?

Indeed. One of the most important lessons to be deliberately trained, and then learned and applied, is for a pilot to know when to wait it out, or turn around because the weather is not assured as adequate ahead. More capable aircraft [navigation systems] and more comprehensive weather information are enticing pilots to take more chances. Pilots must remind themselves that throwing themselves into worsening conditions because it seems to be okay requires lots of experience and skill. It sounds like the sum of piloting experience in the plane did not add up to that.

My first venture to the southern 'States was 41 years ago with a buddy in his 150. I thought it was excellent that we had a comm, a VOR and a mode C transponder, and full set of charts. That, combined with having to write down the details of the weather forecast for our route made us aware of our limitations. Yes, we would sometimes press on, but with the uncertainty that we might decide to turn around, because the conditions were not assured adequate.

I opine that two students would revere an instructor, and agree to be passengers, or worse acting pilots, because the instructor said it would be okay. Should any sub 1000 hour class IV instructor agree to be right seat for a night cross country flight other than in pristine weather and well known territory? Not I, when I mentor, if conditions are approaching special VFR along the route, and I have agreed to test the route ahead, I'll do it flying left seat, so that I have the cockpit "normal" to my skills, should I need to apply them.

I agree that Photofly has asked some very relevant questions about supervision, if the details of the flight line up with his speculation.

[rxl]

The weather is iffy and it's going to get dark out, we stay the night here and come back tomorrow, or even the next day"?

Indeed. One of the most important lessons to be deliberately trained, and then learned and applied, is for a pilot to know when to wait it out, or turn around because the weather is not assured as adequate ahead.

Words of wisdom from the bottom of every one of Cat Driver's postings -

"The hardest thing about flying is knowing when to say no."

"After over a half a century of flying no one ever died because of my decision not to fly."

[URC]

Here is the track of the other PA28 about 10 minutes ahead of them.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CGNO ... /KRIC/CYSN