The Air Canada OTS thread

[fruitloops]

So much for the OTS nature of this thread.

I guess the message is apply to Jazz, screw OTS and get on the PML asap? Because all I am seeing is regional numbers and PML in the last two pages of this discussion.

Perhaps it's time to start considering other airlines that don't force avenues of entry via their low cost divisions.

Wait and see for now I guess.

S.

The sheet is for those OTS contemplating regionals, just trying to give them a 'potential' timeline. I was thinking of how I could compare OTS route vs regional but without knowing how many OTS are 'on the list' pretty tough. Maybe someone on these threads has an idea of the numbers of OTS AC has the ability to draw from?????

Let's say there are 400 OTS short listed/past the first hurdle/got the email - I have no idea but just starting somewhere, maybe someone has a better guestimate???

At 2 per GS and say 240 per year AC hiring rate (roughly) that's about 24 OTS per year
- 400 OTS would take 16 yrs at a rate of 24 per year to go through
- 200 OTS short listed > 8 years
- 100 OTS short listed > 4 years
This would be sequential & pass rate of final screening/GS completion 100%, but of course that wouldn't be reality. Many could jump the queue, i.e ex military pilots, rate of accumulating hours & experience would differ per pilot, etc. Just hypothesizing here no certainty involved, thow a 50% success rate into the mix and you are looking at the following if your the bottom of the OTS list lowest experience in the group
400 > 8 yrs
200 > 4 yrs
Variables can change things further in future i.e. increased hire rate, pilot shortages, demographics, contracts, etc. Food for thought at least.

[fish4life]

The truth is no one knows what will happen for sure, choose a company you want to work for and stick with it if AC hires you great. AC won't cripple its regional operations to flow guys to mainline so if experience drops at Jazz they won't hire anywhere near 80%, if AC finds the experience levels sufficient they will interview 80% BUT you could be the 20% so you better hope you went to a regional you want to spend a career at. Right now Jazz seems like the only career regional company but I could be proven wrong, Sky regional seems more like a stepping stone to China if you don't flow to AC and Georgian is Georgian.

[schnitzel2k3]

So much for the OTS nature of this thread.

I guess the message is apply to Jazz, screw OTS and get on the PML asap? Because all I am seeing is regional numbers and PML in the last two pages of this discussion.

Perhaps it's time to start considering other airlines that don't force avenues of entry via their low cost divisions.

Wait and see for now I guess.

S.

The sheet is for those OTS contemplating regionals, just trying to give them a 'potential' timeline. I was thinking of how I could compare OTS route vs regional but without knowing how many OTS are 'on the list' pretty tough. Maybe someone on these threads has an idea of the numbers of OTS AC has the ability to draw from?????

Let's say there are 400 OTS short listed/past the first hurdle/got the email - I have no idea but just starting somewhere, maybe someone has a better guestimate???

At 2 per GS and say 240 per year AC hiring rate (roughly) that's about 24 OTS per year
- 400 OTS would take 16 yrs at a rate of 24 per year to go through
- 200 OTS short listed > 8 years
- 100 OTS short listed > 4 years
This would be sequential & pass rate of final screening/GS completion 100%, but of course that wouldn't be reality. Many could jump the queue, i.e ex military pilots, rate of accumulating hours & experience would differ per pilot, etc. Just hypothesizing here no certainty involved, thow a 50% success rate into the mix and you are looking at the following if your the bottom of the OTS list lowest experience in the group
400 > 8 yrs
200 > 4 yrs
Variables can change things further in future i.e. increased hire rate, pilot shortages, demographics, contracts, etc. Food for thought at least.

You know what, that's a relatively good perspective, doesn't make me happy, but it makes sense.

Food for thought indeed.

S.

[watermeth]

Let's say there are 400 OTS short listed

you're reasoning might be good but without a reliable/verified exact number the projection doesn't make sense.

[PROC_HDG]

FWIW, for 2017 AC is now doing a course of 30 every 3 weeks.

PROC_HDG

[watermeth]

do you know how many of those should be OTS by any chance ?

[rudder]

do you know how many of those should be OTS by any chance ?

20%. There are also OTS that deferred when that was an option.

[PROC_HDG]

To give the OTS guys some hope, it is worth mentioning that as the original PML candidates all move through and PML 2.0 comes into full effect, I would expect to see the numbers of PML candidates go lower than 80%, Given the problems with staffing developing at the regionals. Eventually I think AC will have no choice but to up the OTS numbers, so as not to cannibalize the regional feeders. I suspect this is the reason they specifically put the "Up To 80%" line in the new PML; To not handcuff themselves to the 80% number.

PROC_HDG

[skypirate88]

I am not sure Jazz is having trouble filling courses, but I've been wrong before.

I also agree that the PML number will be less than 80%. I think it will happen all on it's own. To be eligible for the list, you needed to have an ATPL and 2000 hours. Guys coming to Jazz now seem to not meet that requirement, which will naturally keep them there for a while.

I think in order to continue attracting folks to the Express brand, AC needs to walk a fine line. They need to hire enough from the PML to keep folks interested, but not too many that they compromise the Express schedule.

[rudder]

AC needs approximately 3600 mainline and 2000 Express pilots to make the current and forecast commercial schedule work. AC is well aware that if its Express contractors cannot source pilot labour in a labour competitive market then they will fail to meet their operational commitments, similar to what is happening in the US.

Therefore, unless AC wants to repatriate the flying or reduce its schedule in the secondary North American market then it has a stake in the ability of its Express contractors in sourcing pilot labour. In turn, this pilot labour is then sourced to AC and replaced with entry level labour at Express.

Absent the potential to have a meaningful economic career at AC, Express pilots will seek a meaningful economic career at their CPA employer which will result in higher costs to AC.

The system in place is not perfect but it serves a purpose for AC. It is likely that the model will continue to evolve as the existing pilot supply chain is not strong and baby boom retirement attrition is about to manifest in full force over the next decade.

[gtanorth]

AC needs approximately 3600 mainline and 2000 Express pilots to make the current and forecast commercial schedule work. AC is well aware that if its Express contractors cannot source pilot labour in a labour competitive market then they will fail to meet their operational commitments, similar to what is happening in the US.

Therefore, unless AC wants to repatriate the flying or reduce its schedule in the secondary North American market then it has a stake in the ability of its Express contractors in sourcing pilot labour. In turn, this pilot labour is then sourced to AC and replaced with entry level labour at Express.

Absent the potential to have a meaningful economic career at AC, Express pilots will seek a meaningful economic career at their CPA employer which will result in higher costs to AC.

The system in place is not perfect but it serves a purpose for AC. It is likely that the model will continue to evolve as the existing pilot supply chain is not strong and baby boom retirement attrition is about to manifest in full force over the next decade.

I think the big thing missed so far on the thread is that the current flow to AC from Express through the PML has been under AC New hiring policy yet the candidates were hired at Express with no expectation of needing uni or 3 yr college, so there are a fair number of pass-overs. Now that the Express carriers and AC have a formal PML which clearly outlines the requirement for movement from Express to AC the success rate will be way higher. Express and AC want that number to be as close to 100% as possible. Generally, when a pilot gets rejected by AC they leave the Express network, so that is the real current training burden on Express not the flow to AC. Expect all Express brands to start changing the way they hire with the goal of successful flow. At present, the only attrition from any Express is after a reject by AC or people who don't try the PML for whatever reason. Just a few years ago attrition at AGL was 40%, now, outside of AC it in is the single digits and that includes a number of guys hired as DEC to get the RJ operation going who are not at a career stage to go to AC. Want AC - get educated, get the minimum time and go to the first Express guy to offer you a job.

[garfield]

My guess is if you have the time and the education, you're better stay away from PML, you can get an interview in a shorter time if you take the OTS route.

Yes they hire a lot more from PML, but you have to take a ticket and wait for your turn.

Example, a military who have 3000 hours of F18 (and a degree of course), he wants to go to AC what's the quickest way to get an interview? Go to Jazz or Encore?

[JBI]

The PML process does seem to be going pretty quick. Just spoke with a friend who is an early 2016 hire at Jazz and he's had his online interview already. I don't believe he has a degree. Now, who knows if he'll be successful or how long he'd wait in a pool, but still, good information for people to know.

It sounds like the OTS folks are just starting to get calls for the online interview. For the folks like Jimmy2 who have been given the 'good' OTS e-mail but are considering an Express carrier, my opinion is that the number one concern shouldn't be which option will get you to AC the quickest, but it should be which option gives you a valid shot at AC but still gives you a job that you are content with. What do you want to do if you don't get to AC?

Jazz is still a great company with good aircraft, good benefits and a pretty great route structure. Pay still gets pretty good in the long run. There are more options for bases, but again, certain pros and cons for each base. i.e. no RJ spots in YYZ. May get stuck in a base you don't want at first. Upgrades are coming pretty quick these days (but the junior captain schedules aren't great) but I've heard no complaints from the folks that are there.

Sky and Georgian have their pros and cons. I'd argue that they are less long term career destinations, but the transborder jet flying is probably pretty interesting.

Encore is growing like crazy and for the medium term is a pretty good company as well. The Q is a great aircraft and you know you'll be in YYC or YYZ with a commuting policy. You haven't given up your OTS potential with AC and if it doesn't work out, you'll eventually flow to the 737 at mainline. Upgrades at the moment are as soon as you meet the matrix (roughly 1000 hours of 705 time with 3000 hours TT or 500 hours of 705 with 4000 hours). So if you do have a high number of hours or 705 time, the upgrade will be very quick.

There are definitely a few other options out there as well. Porter is still hiring pretty significantly.

All and all, it's a pretty good set of options to have. Just my opinion though.

[gtanorth]

My guess is if you have the time and the education, you're better stay away from PML, you can get an interview in a shorter time if you take the OTS route.

Yes they hire a lot more from PML, but you have to take a ticket and wait for your turn.

Example, a military who have 3000 hours of F18 (and a degree of course), he wants to go to AC what's the quickest way to get an interview? Go to Jazz or Encore?

Military is a poor example as they have a portion carved out of the OTS number already, up to 50% of OTS is given to the military on a priority basis. Military pilots should not go to Express IMO but they are about the only exception. About 90% of the AC pilots come from PML or military, unless career prohibited get on the PML. 10% left for everyone else is not a lot.

[sportingrifle]

FWIW, there are approx. 340 OTS candidates with ATR's and university degrees. In the last year we have been getting very few applications from the military. The last PIT course had on only 1 military pilot, many courses have none. My guess is that the military guys would take the big pay cut when it was only 3 years, but with the longer military time in service requirements, and the AC position group pay structure, it is too much of a hit on the remaining career life time earnings. But then again, things change.

[Braaaap]

So what should wet CPL's with the end goal of getting on at Air Canada be looking at doing? Seems to me there's a good chance of getting stuck at a regional if the PML music stops. Picking the regional you'd be fine with making a career at makes good sense.

[gtanorth]

So what should wet CPL's with the end goal of getting on at Air Canada be looking at doing? Seems to me there's a good chance of getting stuck at a regional if the PML music stops. Picking the regional you'd be fine with making a career at makes good sense.

No regional in Canada should be considered a career place in normal circumstances. Maybe in the past but no longer. Unless you want to be at a regional because of an unrelated personal reason (there are many valid reasons to make that decision) then treat them as a springboard to a career job. The only way the PML music stops is if the big red starts shrinking then you would be lucky to be at any of the regionals riding out a few years with a paycheck flying airplanes instead of working at home depot like the majority of pilots. The closer you can get to your goal job the better you will be. If you want AC get to an express carrier as soon as you can, want to be at WJ get to Encore as soon as you can, want international start building time wherever you can as fast as possible.

The bottom line for AC is get to the first express guy to offer you a job as the PML is seniority bassed and get to encore as fast as possible for WJ. End of thought process IMHO.

[skypirate88]

So what should wet CPL's with the end goal of getting on at Air Canada be looking at doing? Seems to me there's a good chance of getting stuck at a regional if the PML music stops. Picking the regional you'd be fine with making a career at makes good sense.

The bottom line for AC is get to the first express guy to offer you a job as the PML is seniority bassed and get to encore as fast as possible for WJ. End of thought process IMHO.

The only part that is seniority driven with the pml is the initial hides interview. The rest is determined by a score calculated by AC.

[gtanorth]

So what should wet CPL's with the end goal of getting on at Air Canada be looking at doing? Seems to me there's a good chance of getting stuck at a regional if the PML music stops. Picking the regional you'd be fine with making a career at makes good sense.

The bottom line for AC is get to the first express guy to offer you a job as the PML is seniority bassed and get to encore as fast as possible for WJ. End of thought process IMHO.

The only part that is seniority driven with the pml is the initial hides interview. The rest is determined by a score calculated by AC.

For those with uni or 3 yr college it looks like job offers have been following seniority at AGL for the most part, I guess there could be 1 or 2 out of seniority for those who tick all the boxes. It looks like the score comes more into play with no uni or college. In any case your score would be the same OTS vs PML so the key is to get the interview as quick as possible and if what you say is right then at least you are in line for those with you score.

[garfield]

200 hours guy : PML

2000+ hours guy with degree : OTS

There's regionals out there who have way better conditions than AC feeders, if it don't work you can still do a good career or go overseas if you're chasing big iron.

[fruitloops]

FWIW, there are approx. 340 OTS candidates with ATR's and university degrees.

That's competitive - I'm guessing average TT for that list is probably 5k ish avg or ???

[Ancient]

200 hours guy : PML

2000+ hours guy with degree : OTS

If there are really 340 good OTS candidates then you could probably start at a Express carrier today and be in a ground school at Mainline before an OTS guy that did their online interview today would be. Your chances of getting one of the few OTS spots in a ground school against 340 other people would be small wouldn't it?

[watermeth]

concerning OTS applicants :did those who have completed the video interview received invitation for a formal interview yet ?

[marakii]

AC needs approximately 3600 mainline and 2000 Express pilots to make the current and forecast commercial schedule work. AC is well aware that if its Express contractors cannot source pilot labour in a labour competitive market then they will fail to meet their operational commitments, similar to what is happening in the US.

Therefore, unless AC wants to repatriate the flying or reduce its schedule in the secondary North American market then it has a stake in the ability of its Express contractors in sourcing pilot labour. In turn, this pilot labour is then sourced to AC and replaced with entry level labour at Express.

Absent the potential to have a meaningful economic career at AC, Express pilots will seek a meaningful economic career at their CPA employer which will result in higher costs to AC.

The system in place is not perfect but it serves a purpose for AC. It is likely that the model will continue to evolve as the existing pilot supply chain is not strong and baby boom retirement attrition is about to manifest in full force over the next decade.

Will there be a shortage of qualified pilots flowing to jazz,sky,porter, georgian In the near future?

Porter lost about 50 to AC last year from what I heard . They were high time Q400 captains.

[dbob]

..........