complexintentions wrote:We routinely fly through Pyongyang FIR on Europe and North America routings, transiting from Khabarovsk FIR. Perhaps that's changed, my last such flight was about a month ago. I've got a FRA trip on Friday I'll see what they file us on. It certainly hasn't been terribly exciting lol.
I seriously doubt they will shut any North American airspace, let alone the entire thing. But then I've never been one to get too fussed about things I can't affect.
Flights still proceed through North Korean airspace. But from North America, the typical route is well away from land with that portion of the peninsula not being in sight. No doubt, it is a source of currency for them. And no, they do not have CPDLC.
I suppose that an actual war would close their airspace and have an effect on schedules but there are alternative routings.
Do the United States and other countries not have some pretty sophisticated anti-missile equipment? Before making fun of me, bear in mind I am not really a military enthusiast, so I am asking this question sincerely. Every now and then you see pictures of planes and satellites with lasers and stuff designed to shoot down missiles. Does this exist in real life, or is it just some futurist speculation? Seismic data from the time of several tests shows that NK probably does have some rudimentary nuclear bombs, but what about the missiles themselves? Surely they aren't very clever or fancy ones.
North Korea has shown in the past that they like to raise anxiety because they are usually given something in return when they decide to cut it out. If they ever deployed one of these weapons in anger, the economic embargoes that would result would make the ones they are currently experiencing look like a minor recession. The Americans wouldn't need to bomb them back. They would starve.
I'm more worried about an irresponsible response than I am about an initial move by NK.
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Meatservo wrote:Do the United States and other countries not have some pretty sophisticated anti-missile equipment? Before making fun of me, bear in mind I am not really a military enthusiast, so I am asking this question sincerely. Every now and then you see pictures of planes and satellites with lasers and stuff designed to shoot down missiles.
I'm more worried about an irresponsible response than I am about an initial move by NK.
Missile défense systems have existed for some time and was in fact used in Israel during GW1 against Scuds launched from Iraq. But nothing is foolproof.
I AM worried about an irresponsible act from either side because neither leader is rational (stuff it Pelmet, you can't argue against the truth and it has never been more relevant than now). I am even more worried about what comes next from any of the players involved or in the area who feel threatened. I also don't trust that Russia won't capitalize on it and start pressing westward for their own purposes.
None of this is good or trivial. Sorry if people get their noses out of joint by a dose of reality but this is the most serious and threatening situation to come around in a very long time, and there are no grown ups in charge on either side here.
Meatservo wrote:Seismic data from the time of several tests shows that NK probably does have some rudimentary nuclear bombs, but what about the missiles themselves? Surely they aren't very clever or fancy ones.
The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs weren't particularly "clever or fancy ones."
Just sayin'
Meatservo wrote:Seismic data from the time of several tests shows that NK probably does have some rudimentary nuclear bombs, but what about the missiles themselves? Surely they aren't very clever or fancy ones.
The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs weren't particularly "clever or fancy ones."
Just sayin'
Gerry
Fair enough- but I was talking more about the delivery system. Presumably they are planning something a bit more elaborate than dropping their bombs from B-29s- ballistic missiles maybe. I'm wondering how sophisticated is their ability to build ballistic missiles and to what extent other countries can protect themselves from them.
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Here's a list of North Korean missile tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_N ... sile_tests
Note in particular the 2012 test, they successfully launched a satellite into orbit. Even if they can't do it every time, they've got the capability to reach any point on earth.
Zaibatsu wrote:The Patriot missile was nowhere near as successful as it was claimed to be in the Gulf War.
I read somewhere the the Patriot worked exactly as it was designed too. It's purpose is to shoot down aircraft or prevent missile strikes on military targets. The Patriot flies itself near the inbound missile then explodes either knocking the inbound missile off course or destroying it. The problem was they tried to use it to protect entire cities.
Further to AV8TS comment,
The ..-B that Iraq used against Israel targeted cities in general. It is a horribly inaccurate tactical rocket. I would suggest that the German V2 had as much accuracy as the Soviet designed ... So, in so far, as the Patriot system hit the SCUDs, knocking them off course was moot as there was no precise course to begin with.
We are a long time removed from the original Patriot system. The systems dealing with ballistic missle defence are far more accurate and enhanced than the Patriot. We have had almost 30 years since the Patriot was first deployed.
As I see it, the largest threat to South Korea is not from tactical ballistic missles, but rather from N.Korea's sizeable artillery force. A 155mm howitzer is very hard to see and strike, coupled with gas/poison shells, makes this weapon system rather tricky to deal with. N. Korea also has a very sizeable special operations force. They would probably be able to cause some havoc, while not affecting the outcome.
Cheers.
Zaibatsu wrote:The US and allies fought North Korea to a stalemate 60 years ago with a nuclear advantage. Every president up to now has been smart enough to stay a comfortable distance away. Even the Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld war mongers didn't dare do anything when the DPRK became a nuclear power in 2006--they already had their little war to chase phantom WMDs and gain oil wealth in the Middle East.
They also fought the Red China and USSR, not just the North Koreans. There would only be one Korea today without intervention by the two aforementioned countries. Cheers...Chris
Moose47 wrote:They also fought the Red China and USSR, not just the North Koreans. There would only be one Korea today without intervention by the two aforementioned countries. Cheers...Chris
Y'all need to settle down a tad, chaps. The Chinese will reign in Kim the pipsqueak hairdo if he gets to brazen and steps outa line. They don't want this shit disturbing fossilized goat in their backyard because if he gets into a slinging match with anybody the Chinese will have to foot the financial bill. Say what you will about the Chinese but they come around a bit.
complexintentions wrote:
I've got an Incheon turnaround on Wednesday before my FRA on Friday, so I'll be a little closer to the situation than southern Ontario. I hope I survive.
Quelle dramatique! (*yawn*)
Yes. Cruising along at 35,000' in an automated widebody from 5 star hotel to 5 star hotel can give one some real insight into the situation in North Korea.
All I know is that neither the "Dear Leader" nor D.J. Trump has done anything to fill me with confidence knowing that both these clowns have access to nuclear weapons.
complexintentions wrote:
I've got an Incheon turnaround on Wednesday before my FRA on Friday, so I'll be a little closer to the situation than southern Ontario. I hope I survive.
Quelle dramatique! (*yawn*)
Yes. Cruising along at 35,000' in an automated widebody from 5 star hotel to 5 star hotel can give one some real insight into the situation in North Korea.
All I know is that neither the "Dear Leader" nor D.J. Trump has done anything to fill me with confidence knowing that both these clowns have access to nuclear weapons.
Hmmm. Apparently the concept of a "turnaround" escapes you but here's a hint, there's no hotel involved!
Seeing as I'm based about 2 hours from Seoul (that's Incheon, ICN, ok dxl?), yes, I do feel confident that if nuclear WW3 kicks off I'll probably be aware of it slightly sooner than the good folk of the GTA. Yay! lol
On the FRA flight we did route east of Pyongyang FIR before heading into Russia, which is new.
I get it that topics should be focused on aviation, but this idea that politics and aviation are unrelated hasn't exactly been my experience...
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