WestJet To Launch ULCC

[Mr. North]

"WJ posts 45% fall in Q1 profit"

It sounds worse than it actually is. Did people think cheap oil would last forever?!

[Realitychex]

"WJ posts 45% fall in Q1 profit"

It sounds worse than it actually is. Did people think cheap oil would last forever?!

WJ's operating profit in 1Q 2017 was down 34.3% yoy.

The industry collective operating profit, including the 11 North American publicly traded sched carriers that have reported 1Q 2017 thus far, (ie all but AC), dropped from $5.765b in 1Q 2016 to $3.259B in 1Q 2017, or down an average of 43.5%.

WJ was one of the better performers in the bigger scheme of things. Only Southwest, (down 30.3%), Delta, (down 31.6%), Hawaiian (down 30.6%) and Skywest, (up 23.4%), did better.

I wonder where AC will fit in when they report on Friday. We all know that companies always release stellar numbers on Fridays.

If they match WJ's YoY decline of 34.3%, that puts their 1Q operating profit at about $119.7M. Subtract interest payments of about $83m, because bankers don't like it when airlines don't pay interest on loans for those shiny new aircraft, and that indicates a true operating profit of about $35m on revenues of about $3.5b, which is getting into rounding error territory.

That compares to WJ's actuals of $65.3m on revenues of $1.11B. Twice the profit on 1/3 the revenues for those paying attention.

Should AC's operating margin decline be closer to the industry average, (and let's face it, AC rarely beats industry average in any metric that matters), the operating profit would slide to about $87m. Subtract $83m +/- of interest and we're back to a break-even proposition with oil at $50bbl.

It'll be interesting to see how this back of the envelope math compares with actuals released Friday morning.



Addendum: Like I said, AC rarely beats industry average in any metric that matters. By far the worst numbers of any publicly traded airline in North America. So much for the big turnaround.

['97 Tercel]

I guess it pays to ask for the short gate.

[KAG]

Sure I will. It's always been overpriced pilots that bankrupt airlines, never incompetent management.

You just keep on giving back until it feels good. Maybe if you get right back to minimum wage, you can keep working forever at the ULCC.

Blaming the company and its management has been union mantra since time in memorable.

Blaming overpriced workers has been the anti union mantra since time memorable.
No point in fighting over this, the vote will tell which way the wind is blowing. Then its up to us to work together with management to keep the party going. IMHO I see good times ahead.

[The Raven]

When is the vote?

[NewCommercialPilot]

Well there is that seniority elephant in the room so togetherness might be an ephemeral notion.

[Lateralus]

When is the vote?

The vote opened this morning and runs until next Friday.

[Schooner69A]

All WJ pilots should dig out a pencil and a sheet of paper and lay out the following headings:


WHAT WILL I GAIN WHAT WILL I LOSE


If it's obvious that you will gain significantly more than you lose, then go for it.

However, if the loss column far exceeds the profit column....

[teacher]

Sure I will. It's always been overpriced pilots that bankrupt airlines, never incompetent management.

You just keep on giving back until it feels good. Maybe if you get right back to minimum wage, you can keep working forever at the ULCC.

Blaming the company and its management has been union mantra since time in memorable.

You got me there. It's unions that manage companies into the ground. Always suspected that. Like how I never get tired of hearing how when C3 went out how the union didn't do a thing for the pilots. Was it the union that decided to buy Royal and Canjet without any due diligence? Was the union to blame for the 911 attacks?

Get real.

I once worked for a company that blamed the union they had for 6 months for their bankruptcy. No contract in place, no change in working conditions other than now having CARs and the labour code enforced and no changes in their contracts yet they went under and blamed the union.

Unions do not bankrupt companies, what's the point. Unions can sometimes be inflexible BUT that is the EMPLOYEES doing not the union.

[infiniteregulus]

As stated...ripple effect...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-can ... -1.4101814

[NewCommercialPilot]

A merger down the road would be a nightmare if the ALPA President approved a non-DOH seniority list. That is why he won't approve it. That, and a lawsuit from OTS pilots against ALPA for violating it's constitutional duty to follow the DOH policy which has been in effect for 60 years.

The ULCC may eventually be populated solely by ex-Encore pilots torpedoed by ALPA policy on DOH (at mainline) and seniority.

You could not be more wrong in trying to apply 'policy' in the fashion that you are to try to create conflict where none exists.

The ALPA policy on constructing a local pilot seniority list is rooted in DOH to prevent historical instances where some companies try to generate arbitrary lists which may favour 'friends of management' or other crazy deals. It certainly is not intended to displace existing agreements in place that are supported by the pilots that have just opted for ALPA representation. Logically, such arrangements would be preserved in the CBA if supported by the majority.

And insofar as a future merger is concerned - most pilot seniority lists that are a result of an seniority integration arbitration are no longer DOH based. So DOH is a factor but just one of many. A review of the current ALPA Merger Policy will bear this out as will the arbitrated decisions generated within the last 5 years under that policy.

Rudder, I was curious as to your credentials and knowledge of ALPA policy, and then I read the following article: http://www3.alpa.org/LinkClick.aspx?fil ... tabid=3345
and realized you may have more than a passing interest in what happens in the current vote.

Seeing as you are familiar with the steps necessary to change ALPA policy, you will understand that Executive Board policy has to be followed by MECs, as per the ALPA constitution. Accordingly, the 60 year old Executive Board policy governing seniority list construction (based on DOH) must be followed. If policy was subject to the capriciousness of each pilot body, then why have a policy in the first place?

[Smitty]

One of the ALPA OC's biggest beefs with the current representation is the implied lack of structure and the fluidity of the agreements. This of course is an incorrect assumption only discussed to further their agenda. But its ok to modify ALPA policies, procedures and administration manuals to suit the flavour of the day.

Can you say "double standard"?

Maybe they're taking a page out of the Trump playbook...say anything to get elected only to run into reality while in office and backtrack on many promises. This would be my prediction should they get in.

[.80@410]

Right, like the current WJPA doesn't only publish the facts that suit them :

90% voted in favour of new fees !

( there was no 0% option which 70? % would have taken )

Negotiated unlimited sick days for PT pilots !!

( after unlimited being taken- Away by a middle manger who under the current lack of legal status of our agreement can make changes at will )

We can already see management wanting to offer ULCC at wages below ours... And sadly the WJPA is too cosy to stand up and say NO.

can't wait till Alpa arrives. 5 days ..

Can't come soon enough. The majority of pilots have had enough and the results the 13th will prove as much.

[NewCommercialPilot]

It's amusing that Rudder would give force and effect and legal validity to an "agreement" that the ALPA OC and indeed ALPA itself says is not enforceable. And exactly how could he state that when ALPA's duty is to its bargaining unit members at WestJet mainline, and not to "future" members?

Indeed, the arbitrary moves by management to give preferential seniority to friends that Rudder referred to is exactly what WJ and the WJPA agreed to with its WPDL. In this case, the "friends"
are pilots who came from a separate company called Encore. Why couldn't the membership at WJ agree to do the same thing to pilots who came from SunWing? Or Porter?

Once upon a time, ALPA had a policy of denying membership to blacks, Asians, Latinos, and women. They eventually changed that discriminatory practice. In spite of numerous opportunities to do so, ALPA has never altered its 1956 Executive Board policy requiring ALPA to use the "strongest means" to ensure first contract seniority lists are constructed by DOH.

[NewCommercialPilot]

Right, like the current WJPA doesn't only publish the facts that suit them :

90% voted in favour of new fees !

( there was no 0% option which 70? % would have taken )

Negotiated unlimited sick days for PT pilots !!

( after unlimited being taken- Away by a middle manger who under the current lack of legal status of our agreement can make changes at will )

We can already see management wanting to offer ULCC at wages below ours... And sadly the WJPA is too cosy to stand up and say NO.

can't wait till Alpa arrives. 5 days ..

Can't come soon enough. The majority of pilots have had enough and the results the 13th will prove as much.

And you believe the current agreement, including the One List, is without legal validity. Unlike Rudder, an "experienced" ALPA member who believes the agreement is enforceable.

[Longtimer]

The only news about the WestJet commitment that I can find on the Boeing site is a quote of the WestJet announcement. Strange that Boeing has not published their own announcement of a WestJet order.

[Smitty]

Right, like the current WJPA doesn't only publish the facts that suit them :

90% voted in favour of new fees !

( there was no 0% option which 70? % would have taken )

Negotiated unlimited sick days for PT pilots !!

( after unlimited being taken- Away by a middle manger who under the current lack of legal status of our agreement can make changes at will )

We can already see management wanting to offer ULCC at wages below ours... And sadly the WJPA is too cosy to stand up and say NO.

can't wait till Alpa arrives. 5 days ..

Can't come soon enough. The majority of pilots have had enough and the results the 13th will prove as much.

Riiiigght...the company will never do anything that'll violate a CBA. It's like a force field around the bargaining unit.

What a relief that well never have to file a grievance of any kind.

Mildly delusional to think this way.

[True North]

Right, like the current WJPA doesn't only publish the facts that suit them :

90% voted in favour of new fees !

( there was no 0% option which 70? % would have taken )

And you know this how? You took a survey? And of course, who wouldn't take something for nothing.

Negotiated unlimited sick days for PT pilots !!

This is a bad thing??

( after unlimited being taken- Away by a middle manger who under the current lack of legal status of our agreement can make changes at will )

Again, utter nonsense. Your agreement is legally binding under law. You can keep saying it isn't but that doesn't change the facts.

We can already see management wanting to offer ULCC at wages below ours... And sadly the WJPA is too cosy to stand up and say NO.

This always intrigues me. An Association of WestJet pilots, made up of pilots elected by the other pilots - and they're cozy with management. Sounds like more pro-ALPA raving to me.

can't wait till Alpa arrives. 5 days ..

Can't come soon enough. The majority of pilots have had enough and the results the 13th will prove as much.

What you really mean is a lot of pilots have been told the same lies enough times by the pro-ALPA contingent that they are starting to believe them. Standard recruiting practice. It will be interesting indeed but from what I'm hearing it's far from a slam dunk.

[skypirate88]

Either way this vote goes it sure seems to be a divided house. It would seem some soul searching is in order

[Old fella]

Having some experience is labor relations in my previous life in the aviation industry, it is accurate to say that no union will invite itself on the premises unless invited to do so by the folks who want representation. Of course there is a vote amongst the group who are seeking representation to see if they really want an employee union. I am not an airline pilot so have no knowledge on ALPA but I will go out on a limb and suggest they are a professional organization and will respect the wishes of the WJ pilot group should they decide they are happy with the current situation with their employer and certification isn’t required. I bet APLA would be happy to hear a group of employees are content in their current work environment and there wouldn’t be any animosity towards said group. I am of the view there are many misconceptions on what certified representation means biggest one being legality.