Is there still a surplus of newly minted pilots at the entry level? I was under the impression that less people are going through training and entering the profession these days.jpilot77 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:12 amThe Porter pay scale for captains on the E2 starts at 190 I believe, the crunch for pilots is actually a crunch for pilots with experience. Right now Jazz could hire as many 500 hour pilots as they want. The problem is that these pilots aren’t upgradable to captain for at least a couple years.Me262 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:20 amWill do nothing to retain or attract pilots? Maybe for 10year+ on the payscale, but a new or young FO already with Jazz or Captain, this is a great improvement.Inverted2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:23 am I voted NO to this agreement. This amount of pay increase (at the cost of working MORE!) will do nothing to retain or attract pilots with any experience. I am top payscale so I got 15% which is hardly a raise at all considering inflation.
As mentioned above all the dirty tactics and meddling by Air Canada management has probably made things worse and will dissuade more from coming here.
I’m not mad about the results. 62% said yes and I’m ok with that. I’ll take their money but it won’t change things.
Where is this "greener" pasture that everyone is talking about? I know Porter just came up with a payscale, and while not familiar with it, I believe it starts at barely 70k? So less than 5k difference. WJ Encore starts at payscale 3 and even with 850/m extra, it's a 57k start vs Jazz new 65k. Not sure if Encore is due for a new contract. I strongly believe the other 38% who said no are vets that their increase is only single or low 2 digit, vs instane 50% increase for someone just starting.
And if Jazz is so hurting, how come their hiring process still takes several months, which includes the sim eval which no other airline is doing? Grass is greener I guess...
Negotiations
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- Ash Ketchum
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Re: Negotiations
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Re: Negotiations
"Transport Canada numbers show that the number of commercial pilot licences awarded each year was relatively consistent for much of the past decade, averaging 1,116 licences annually between the years 2012 and 2019.Ash Ketchum wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:23 amIs there still a surplus of newly minted pilots at the entry level? I was under the impression that less people are going through training and entering the profession these days.jpilot77 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:12 amThe Porter pay scale for captains on the E2 starts at 190 I believe, the crunch for pilots is actually a crunch for pilots with experience. Right now Jazz could hire as many 500 hour pilots as they want. The problem is that these pilots aren’t upgradable to captain for at least a couple years.Me262 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:20 am
Will do nothing to retain or attract pilots? Maybe for 10year+ on the payscale, but a new or young FO already with Jazz or Captain, this is a great improvement.
Where is this "greener" pasture that everyone is talking about? I know Porter just came up with a payscale, and while not familiar with it, I believe it starts at barely 70k? So less than 5k difference. WJ Encore starts at payscale 3 and even with 850/m extra, it's a 57k start vs Jazz new 65k. Not sure if Encore is due for a new contract. I strongly believe the other 38% who said no are vets that their increase is only single or low 2 digit, vs instane 50% increase for someone just starting.
And if Jazz is so hurting, how come their hiring process still takes several months, which includes the sim eval which no other airline is doing? Grass is greener I guess...
With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, those numbers fell off a cliff -- to 474 licences that year and then declining even further to 293 in 2021 and 238 in 2022."
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/number- ... -1.6238793
Re: Negotiations
Not to worry, Flairs newly minted pilot program for a coooool 145k is going to fix that.Ash Ketchum wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:23 amIs there still a surplus of newly minted pilots at the entry level? I was under the impression that less people are going through training and entering the profession these days.jpilot77 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:12 amThe Porter pay scale for captains on the E2 starts at 190 I believe, the crunch for pilots is actually a crunch for pilots with experience. Right now Jazz could hire as many 500 hour pilots as they want. The problem is that these pilots aren’t upgradable to captain for at least a couple years.Me262 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:20 am
Will do nothing to retain or attract pilots? Maybe for 10year+ on the payscale, but a new or young FO already with Jazz or Captain, this is a great improvement.
Where is this "greener" pasture that everyone is talking about? I know Porter just came up with a payscale, and while not familiar with it, I believe it starts at barely 70k? So less than 5k difference. WJ Encore starts at payscale 3 and even with 850/m extra, it's a 57k start vs Jazz new 65k. Not sure if Encore is due for a new contract. I strongly believe the other 38% who said no are vets that their increase is only single or low 2 digit, vs instane 50% increase for someone just starting.
And if Jazz is so hurting, how come their hiring process still takes several months, which includes the sim eval which no other airline is doing? Grass is greener I guess...
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Re: Negotiations
This new MOS relieves so much pressure I don’t know why you’re not seeing it.truedude wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:37 pm
Jazz won't make it to the summer, let alone limp through it. We just lost 11 guys to WJ on the 21st. AC is taking 120 by the end of the year. Of the last 100 or so pilots hired, about a dozen had ATPLs. No one with experience or time are going to come here with 30% flow, and they definitely won't come here if they want to make Jazz a long term choice with the current pay.
If AC wants any sort of regional feed, they will need to be back by the end of the year with more money.
And as for AC wanting another 1000 to 1500 pilots... are there even that many ATPL pilots left that want to work for AC?
I talked to some FOs with ATPL that was going to leave, but with this new pay they’ll stay and upgrade while they wait for AC.
Contract trainers relieves so much pressure, what instructor shortage?
Forced OT?
AC won’t be back to give you a second raise, there’s no need. It does enough to keep the ATPL FOs and entice them to upgrade, while those 500 hour FOs and 18 year captains have nowhere to go to begin with.
Re: Negotiations
Lots out west still going to go to Westjet. And lots are still going to go to Porter. Not everyone wants to work for AC. And it does nothing to attract those with experience that don't want to work for AC, or even those that do.Turboprops wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 1:31 pmThis new MOS relieves so much pressure I don’t know why you’re not seeing it.truedude wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:37 pm
Jazz won't make it to the summer, let alone limp through it. We just lost 11 guys to WJ on the 21st. AC is taking 120 by the end of the year. Of the last 100 or so pilots hired, about a dozen had ATPLs. No one with experience or time are going to come here with 30% flow, and they definitely won't come here if they want to make Jazz a long term choice with the current pay.
If AC wants any sort of regional feed, they will need to be back by the end of the year with more money.
And as for AC wanting another 1000 to 1500 pilots... are there even that many ATPL pilots left that want to work for AC?
I talked to some FOs with ATPL that was going to leave, but with this new pay they’ll stay and upgrade while they wait for AC.
Contract trainers relieves so much pressure, what instructor shortage?
Forced OT?
AC won’t be back to give you a second raise, there’s no need. It does enough to keep the ATPL FOs and entice them to upgrade, while those 500 hour FOs and 18 year captains have nowhere to go to begin with.
Sorry, but it will fix nothing, and I can't understand how you can't see that.
Re: Negotiations
This MOS was just enough to keep the ball rolling with subpar wages. And that’s everything they wanted. They’ll be happy to keep these rates for a very long time. Why would they change it? Jazz pilots spoke. They’re okay with it.
Re: Negotiations
They will change it for the same reason they had to already. It will not attract qualified pilots who are upgradable. Absolutely nothing about this offer changes that. Nothing.
Re: Negotiations
This!Turboprops wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 1:31 pmI talked to some FOs with ATPL that was going to leave, but with this new pay they’ll stay and upgrade while they wait for AC.truedude wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:37 pm
Jazz won't make it to the summer, let alone limp through it. We just lost 11 guys to WJ on the 21st. AC is taking 120 by the end of the year. Of the last 100 or so pilots hired, about a dozen had ATPLs. No one with experience or time are going to come here with 30% flow, and they definitely won't come here if they want to make Jazz a long term choice with the current pay.
If AC wants any sort of regional feed, they will need to be back by the end of the year with more money.
And as for AC wanting another 1000 to 1500 pilots... are there even that many ATPL pilots left that want to work for AC?
Re: Negotiations
A lot of people talked about leaving. But I saw no one leave who's intentions were to go to AC and were already on property before AC started messing with flow.Babar350 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:14 pmThis!Turboprops wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 1:31 pmI talked to some FOs with ATPL that was going to leave, but with this new pay they’ll stay and upgrade while they wait for AC.truedude wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:37 pm
Jazz won't make it to the summer, let alone limp through it. We just lost 11 guys to WJ on the 21st. AC is taking 120 by the end of the year. Of the last 100 or so pilots hired, about a dozen had ATPLs. No one with experience or time are going to come here with 30% flow, and they definitely won't come here if they want to make Jazz a long term choice with the current pay.
If AC wants any sort of regional feed, they will need to be back by the end of the year with more money.
And as for AC wanting another 1000 to 1500 pilots... are there even that many ATPL pilots left that want to work for AC?
In the end, anyone who doesn't want to go to AC won't be enticed to stay. Those that want to go and have experience, won't come to Jazz. And those that have no interest in AC, won't come to Jazz. Once again, it will not solve the one massive problem Jazz has, there is nearly no one left that can upgrade, and no one coming that can be.
Out of the last 100 or so people hired, only about a dozen had ATPL's, and most were under a 1000 hours. Next summer will lay in ruins unless they fix it fast.
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Re: Negotiations
Do you know how many actually qualified pilots they hired last summer/fall? Sure half of them left, but the other half that was going to leave is now staying and upgrade.
These pilots are captains for next summer. AC will take them after next summer to fulfill the 2 year requirement (which is bs), but then this way they aren’t completely screwed next summer. Between the 220s and the max, AC doesn’t need Jazz as much as you’d hope (after next summer).
Green circle lifers that can’t leave their DB pension, plus those that are now staying and upgrading will be enough captains for next summer. Heck they’ll give them AC PIT course date in the fall 6 months in advance to keep them. They’ll always find college grads to sit right seat.
This MOS was never about filling ground schools with ATPLs, it’s all about keeping those that were one foot out the door for another year. You won’t get a second raise by the end of the year like you claimed.
Re: Negotiations
I don’t think anyone is guaranteeing another raise, most were thinking take the money now and if it doesn’t fix the problem they might come back.Turboprops wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:03 pmDo you know how many actually qualified pilots they hired last summer/fall? Sure half of them left, but the other half that was going to leave is now staying and upgrade.
These pilots are captains for next summer. AC will take them after next summer to fulfill the 2 year requirement (which is bs), but then this way they aren’t completely screwed next summer. Between the 220s and the max, AC doesn’t need Jazz as much as you’d hope (after next summer).
Green circle lifers that can’t leave their DB pension, plus those that are now staying and upgrading will be enough captains for next summer. Heck they’ll give them AC PIT course date in the fall 6 months in advance to keep them. They’ll always find college grads to sit right seat.
This MOS was never about filling ground schools with ATPLs, it’s all about keeping those that were one foot out the door for another year. You won’t get a second raise by the end of the year like you claimed.
Some were advocating to hold out for more, I thought that was a ridiculous notion, after over a year of negotiations they finally had a deal in place that just needed a sign off. That sign off didn’t happen and these pilots were thinking, AC would pony up, they don’t know who they’re dealing with that’s for sure.
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Re: Negotiations
After next summer , Jazz probably only has to crew 80 Q-400’s. Like I said, I think AC corp. had played this masterfully. ALPA, not so much. Hopefully I am wrong.
Re: Negotiations
Then they should be putting in an order for Qs, as we have half of that now. I think your theises is very wrong.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:55 pm After next summer , Jazz probably only has to crew 80 Q-400’s. Like I said, I think AC corp. had played this masterfully. ALPA, not so much. Hopefully I am wrong.
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Re: Negotiations
Truedude..I thought that was the minimum amount of metal allowed after 2025 in the CPA. Irregardless, the clue is AC exercising options on the additional A-220’s, which incidentally is part of the reason AC needs 6000 pilots in a year. The writing is in the wall. But I could, and would love, to be wrong.
Re: Negotiations
Jazz has never technically operated at the minimum fins under the CPA. And even of they do, we have less than 40 qs in the fleet. So if it is to be 80 qs, they need to have another 45 materialize from somewhere. Not to mention AC is redoing the cabins on the 175s, so at least as of now, they aren't planing on them leaving the fleet.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 9:15 pm Truedude..I thought that was the minimum amount of metal allowed after 2025 in the CPA. Irregardless, the clue is AC exercising options on the additional A-220’s, which incidentally is part of the reason AC needs 6000 pilots in a year. The writing is in the wall. But I could, and would love, to be wrong.
Re: Negotiations
They are also redoing the RJ cabins as well, the same or similar to the 220s and the CPA guarantees 80 76 seat aircraft, it doesn’t specify which ones.truedude wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 9:25 pmJazz has never technically operated at the minimum fins under the CPA. And even of they do, we have less than 40 qs in the fleet. So if it is to be 80 qs, they need to have another 45 materialize from somewhere. Not to mention AC is redoing the cabins on the 175s, so at least as of now, they aren't planing on them leaving the fleet.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 9:15 pm Truedude..I thought that was the minimum amount of metal allowed after 2025 in the CPA. Irregardless, the clue is AC exercising options on the additional A-220’s, which incidentally is part of the reason AC needs 6000 pilots in a year. The writing is in the wall. But I could, and would love, to be wrong.
Re: Negotiations
AC pilots don’t have any leverage that comes from the shortage of pilots. The top tier airlines in the US never have either. The leverage is pure work stoppage. Purely a union demanding to be paid.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:37 pm AC pilots have very little time to leverage their bargaining power and the Jazz pilots just played their last hand.
The only exception to this would be if the border opened and AC was suddenly cast as less desirable. Only then would a shortage impact AC.
The pilot supply shortage impacts wages from the bottom up. First the North. Then the regionals. Then less desirable jobs like Flair Lynx porter. It raises the low water mark not the high water mark. Only unionism raises the high water mark and that is done through demand.
As for Jazz. Yes AC has a bunch of 220’s on order to upgauge some regional flying. They don’t arrive until 2025. AC needs to make it through two more summers before they see any relief from the regional pilot shortage.
That is a long time for a CEO looking poorly because of operational failures. He does another summer/December like 2022/23 in 2024? His solution is retracting from markets?
Last edited by Fanblade on Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:25 am, edited 5 times in total.
Re: Negotiations
Where did you get these retirement numbers? They are nothing like the ones I am looking at. All analysts are predicting an inability to keep the supply of pilots up with demand into the next decade in both Canada and the U.S. But again that likely won’t impact at the top. Even as the situation worsens AC likely won’t be impacted.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:37 pm. But to make the imperfect storm, retirements happen in waves - and in about a year the retirements dry up from highs of 100/year to about 35/year until 2029. So in a little over a year, AC hiring is predicted to go from 40 every two weeks to 40 a year. The pilot shortage in Canuckistan will be over. Jazz will only lose a dizen or so captains a year to AC. And they can easily be replaced by the captains now stuck at CMA and Pasco. The Jazz F/O’s will be stuck even if they do finally get their coveted ATPL’s. And if Flair/Lynx/? go under pilots will once again be a dime a dozen.
Let’s run a gross error check on your pilots becoming a dime a dozen comment. It sounds very AC managementish.
According to Transport Canada’s latest stats there were just shy of 14000 ATPL and 8000 Commercial licences in 2018.
Let’s say there are 22000 commercial pilots in Canada. An average career of 40 years. One would expect an average of 550 retirements per year.
So the Canadian industry needs to produce 550 pilots/ year just for our numbers to stay static. Vastly more than this number to meet increasing demand.
My conclusion? You are listening to AC/ACPA propaganda again.
I agree however that this industry is very cyclical. Way up or way down. A slow down might provide relief of the pilot shortage for a time. But it would be very shortsighted to believe that to be a fix. It would simply make the next upswing worse and possibly destructive.
The only fix is to attract more young people into the industry. The industry currently is not attractive enough. Pay or lifestyle don’t make the initial investment worthwhile. Since 2003 AC management has been the driving force behind the lack of attractiveness. They have driven their own shortage with little to no opposition from the largest Canadian pilot union trusted with the future of our profession.
It is why ALPA has consistently said there is no shortage. It’s a shortage of pay. Or, if you pay, they will come.
Ultimately the issue has nothing to do with attracting you or I. It’s the next generation and unless AC starts thinking longer term this will only get worse.
In Canada we enjoy an outsized aviation industry. For our population we swing way above our size. Much like KLM, Emerates, or Singapore. We don’t have to be a nation like that. The rest of the world would have no qualms with picking up what AC was forced to suspend.
The Canadian aviation industry swings way above its weight. It needs even higher supply of pilots as a percentage of population, than the US for this to continue. Eventually this is going to go from shortage to outright crisis if not dealt with.
Re: Negotiations
This alone will force other companies to increase wages again. They have to compete for Captains.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:37 pm
But that is about to change. AC’s growth plan is 6000 pilots and with about 5000 already on the property, that’s a little over a years hiring.
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Re: Negotiations
This is if you believe that ALL license holders are active and haven’t quit flying for profit.Fanblade wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:45 amWhere did you get these retirement numbers? They are nothing like the ones I am looking at. All analysts are predicting an inability to keep the supply of pilots up with demand into the next decade in both Canada and the U.S. But again that likely won’t impact at the top. Even as the situation worsens AC likely won’t be impacted.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:37 pm. But to make the imperfect storm, retirements happen in waves - and in about a year the retirements dry up from highs of 100/year to about 35/year until 2029. So in a little over a year, AC hiring is predicted to go from 40 every two weeks to 40 a year. The pilot shortage in Canuckistan will be over. Jazz will only lose a dizen or so captains a year to AC. And they can easily be replaced by the captains now stuck at CMA and Pasco. The Jazz F/O’s will be stuck even if they do finally get their coveted ATPL’s. And if Flair/Lynx/? go under pilots will once again be a dime a dozen.
Let’s run a gross error check on your pilots becoming a dime a dozen comment. It sounds very AC managementish.
According to Transport Canada’s latest stats there were just shy of 14000 ATPL and 8000 Commercial licences in 2018.
Let’s say there are 22000 commercial pilots in Canada. An average career of 40 years. One would expect an average of 550 retirements per year.
Re: Negotiations
This is why I think if they are actually intent on saving next summer, they will have to come back with more money by the end of the year.Fanblade wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 10:05 amThis alone will force other companies to increase wages again. They have to compete for Captains.sportingrifle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:37 pm
But that is about to change. AC’s growth plan is 6000 pilots and with about 5000 already on the property, that’s a little over a years hiring.
But they have shown extreme stubbornness and willingness to give up a lot of market share. So who knows what they will actually do.
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Re: Negotiations
I myself (ATPL) left Sunwing and flying as a career after being laid off during the pandemic, and I know others who have as well (including some who even made it to AC/WJ).CaptDukeNukem wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:11 pm This is if you believe that ALL license holders are active and haven’t quit flying for profit.
Actually being home every night made me realize what I was missing, and so I made the decision to leave flying and become a controller. I won't make as much money, but the lifestyle is top notch. Best decision I've ever made.
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Re: Negotiations
I myself (ATPL) left Sunwing and flying as a career after being laid off during the pandemic, and I know others who have as well (including some who even made it to AC/WJ).DHC-1 Jockey wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 8:19 am [quote=CaptDukeNukem post_id=<a href="tel:1275003">1275003</a> time=<a href="tel:1693696266">1693696266</a> user_id=92807]
This is if you believe that ALL license holders are active and haven’t quit flying for profit.
Actually being home every night made me realize what I was missing, and so I made the decision to leave flying and become a controller. I won't make as much money, but the lifestyle is top notch. Best decision I've ever made.
[/quote]
Congratulations. Controller is no easy feat to reach.
Re: Negotiations
Good for you. Family comes first.DHC-1 Jockey wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 8:19 amI myself (ATPL) left Sunwing and flying as a career after being laid off during the pandemic, and I know others who have as well (including some who even made it to AC/WJ).CaptDukeNukem wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:11 pm This is if you believe that ALL license holders are active and haven’t quit flying for profit.
Actually being home every night made me realize what I was missing, and so I made the decision to leave flying and become a controller. I won't make as much money, but the lifestyle is top notch. Best decision I've ever made.
Congrats on your new path !
Complex systems won’t survive the competence crisis
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Re: Negotiations
I bet over a career you will make way more with ATC than being a Pilot. A pretty sad commentary to what has happened to being a Professional Pilot in this country.
The Airlines overpay the unskilled labour and grossly underpay the skilled.
The Airlines overpay the unskilled labour and grossly underpay the skilled.