The Air Canada OTS thread

[dhc#]

Ok, so with WJ announcing hiring freezes today, the elephant in the room remains AC....how long before the skipper of the SS Air Canada, throws the engines into full reverse as well ??

Hours, days

[derateNO]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

[ayseven]

People never give up looking for job security that has never been a part of the flying business. We all wish it were not the case. I have nothing whatsoever to do with Air Canada, or any airline

[Squid]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

You’re right. What they feel we feel 10x

[CFM Symphony]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

All flights from USA to Europe suspended. Ordered by the Commander in Chief himself.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavir ... -1.5494748

[rudder]

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canad ... 50162.html

[altiplano]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

I disagree. I'd say more diversified.

[Squid]

It’s ugly!
I’m sure head shed is scrambling. With a few fins of max cancelled now they are likely trying to figure out the capacity cuts etc. It’s gonna hurt.

[altiplano]

Every airline is scrambling. But diversity of markets and travellers is better.

[CFM Symphony]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

I disagree. I'd say more diversified.

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

[altiplano]

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

I disagree. I'd say more diversified.

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

Do you think Italy, China, EU are the only markets taking a significant hit? That any operator is insulated? I'm not so sure that's the case.

I think it's clear the fear is spread across more markets.

Vacation and discretionary travel in all markets, particularly cruise ships, resorts, Florida, Disney, etc. are hollowing out... proportionally that makes up a very large part of some airlines' markets this time of year.

New service launching in 6 weeks to Rome? I wonder how those bookings are doing?

All that said... I believe this will wash over in the spring.

[CFM Symphony]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

[Alt50]

Cancelled flights in April so far.

YYC-NRT

YVR-PEK
YVR-PVG

YYZ-PEK
YYZ-PVG
YYZ-ICN
YYZ-HKG
YYZ-MXP
YYZ-FCO

YUL-PVG
YUL-FCO

Probably going to grow quick.

[iflyroads]

39 candidates in the latest gs

4 777 Fo
10 787 Fo
1 767 Fo
2 L767 Fo
4 330 Fo
8 319 Fo
6 220 fo
4 EMB fo

[tca]

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

I don't think you quite understand the concept of diversification.

[CFM Symphony]

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

I don't think you quite understand the concept of diversification.

Hehe, of course I don’t as long as understanding what is a fairly commonsensical economic strategy goes against your narrative.

[derateNO]

39 candidates in the latest gs

4 777 Fo
10 787 Fo
1 767 Fo
2 L767 Fo
4 330 Fo
8 319 Fo
6 220 fo
4 EMB fo

Holy smokes 20 WB FOs.

Fucking AC.

Pay us properly and you wouldn't need to put new hires in these jobs.

[Ash Ketchum]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

[altiplano]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

Why are you being a jerk?

I was having a reasoned discussion, exchanging points of view and you resort to name calling and insults. Grow up.

Despite being the outbreak centres, China and Italy aren't the only regions affected by the slowdown.

Leisure and non-essential travel bookings are among the hardest hit, proportionally that's a larger part of Westjet's flying than Air Canada's as Westjet are actually the market share leader by slight amount into sun destinations, and with a smaller amount of flying that's a proportionately larger part of their business.

Does AC stand to potentially lose more as an amount of total revenue? Yes. But they have quadruple the revenues of Westjet, and from a broader stream. My position is that the loss could potentially be lower as a percentage of total revenues.

[RRJetPilot]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.

[Ash Ketchum]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.

Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.

[goldeneagle]

Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.

Lucky you. I think for the next few months, midway up the list at Jazz will be a much cozier place than BOTL at AC once talk of layoffs starts to get more serious.

[derateNO]

AC isn't going to be laying anyone off.

Mark my words, they will try to get senior pilots to take ERP packages long before they start laying off the cheapest pilots they have on staff.

[CFM Symphony]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

Why are you being a jerk?

I was having a reasoned discussion, exchanging points of view and you resort to name calling and insults. Grow up.

Despite being the outbreak centres, China and Italy aren't the only regions affected by the slowdown.

Leisure and non-essential travel bookings are among the hardest hit, proportionally that's a larger part of Westjet's flying than Air Canada's as Westjet are actually the market share leader by slight amount into sun destinations, and with a smaller amount of flying that's a proportionately larger part of their business.

Does AC stand to potentially lose more as an amount of total revenue? Yes. But they have quadruple the revenues of Westjet, and from a broader stream. My position is that the loss could potentially be lower as a percentage of total revenues.

Since we can’t go with Canadian figures now that WJ is private, let’s estimate the impact on the US market. I did the hard work and used Delta, United and AA to represent the full service global carriers and SouthWest, Spirit and JetBlue to approximate carriers with a more local and leisure based exposure. Yes there are differences, but these are by far the best groupings of airlines I can think of to correlate with AC and WestJet due to market proximity.

I did some back of the envelope math. For the full-service carriers, the market cap weighted average stock price decline over the last 30 days was 49.22% with all 3 carriers close to the mean (ie no evidence of either being an outlier). AC is down a comparable 56.15% over the same period. The lower cost carriers meanwhile scored a weighted average loss of 26.69% loss in value over the same period (admittedly the variance was a lot higher. Southwest only lost 16% whereas Spirit lost 68%)

I think you and I agree on 3 things. 1) this will be short lived. 2) AC will lose more on a dollar basis (though I also believe on a % basis too). 3) I am a jerk (and am very aware that my sarcastic jerkiness takes away from my already questionable credibility).

Don’t take me too seriously.

PS I retired - right before this virus hit us all in the face -from a long and indistinguishable career as a contract pilot. I have no dog in this fight.