Timing the cycle

[Tbayer2021]

Lots of tough talk but when it comes down to it very few will quit and very few would not go back to work if legislated back. Just the way it is. People saying they will quit and go somewhere else. Honest question...where would you go?

Watch ME get legislated back to work. I will go overseas or the US or even back to my previous gig. Really JHR? Are you just another accountant in disguise profile

As much as we all hate "accountant", I'm inclined to agree with JHR. I was in the union at my previous employer and saw first hand the tough talk and posturing leading up to contract opener. As negotiations were drawn out, the change in attitude was palpable. The loudest voices screaming to strike all the sudden became quite tame, "well you know, striking isn't always the best idea". Most still picked up OT when called, etc.

The reality is for the most part, pilots are horrible money managers, even those of us at the top end. Some spend it faster than they earn it. Most pilots at that previous outfit couldn't afford much more than a couple of weeks worth of strike. Too many toys, large mortgage, kids, expensive cars....you name it.

And I agree that it's short term pain for long term gains, but again, I saw first hand how pilots behaved during negotiations when it wasn't going our way.

I hope AC beats it out of the park, I really do.

[accountant]

That’s not what I was asking. I’m actually curious if any of you think the freight situation will get worse and whether you think this might affect passenger travel which we probably won’t notice for a while.

Prior to the 777 most long haul aircraft had difficulty doing it all. All the pax. All the fuel. All the cargo. Passenger carriers couldn’t guarantee freight lift and didn’t go after freight contracts in a meaningful way.

Then came the 777. After it the 787 and 350. These aircraft could do it all. Passengers, cargo and fuel. Every passenger airline became a belly lift freighter. The sudden supply increase caused yields to drop. They stayed that way for a decade or more. Dedicated freighter operations disappeared at most passenger airlines. The successful Cargo companies developed into point to point delivery.

Then came covid and with it, the supply chain disruption. Doubling the problem overnight passenger belly lift gone. Cargo yields took off. Cargo expanded.

Then Covid ended. Passenger belly lift returned. Supply chains started to mend. Yield dropped. Cargo companies feel the pain and retreat as supply chains start to normalize.

As for AC. They have a few long time lucrative routes. Mostly South America and others to Europe and Asia that are time of year dependent. They may be able to effectively utilize the smaller 767, and smaller fleet size, to complement the larger overall belly lift operation. I doubt we will see an expansion. There is higher probability of a retreat from dedicated freighters if they start sending more Widebody aircraft into South American destinations.

But overall. Freight is just normalizing after Covid. I’m actually at a loss as to why some people thought Covid freight yields were the new normal. Or why their return to pre COVID levels wasn’t to be expected.

Your question makes me wonder how much you understand the aviation industry in Canada. On the other hand someone on the regional side might not be familiar. It could also be that you know this and are just trying to create fear by trying to suggest an aviation cliff is on the horizon.

I understand the industry.

When you’re seeing cargo carriers sell off tails, legacy carriers cancel conversions, cargo carriers suggest pilots apply to regionals…. We know crewing will be impacted. The question is how much? Some indicators lag or take time to measure.

The so called “shortage of pilots” may not be as big of an issue as you think. Hence why I asked if YOU thought this would have an impact. I know my thoughts, I’m curious how others are thinking especially when you’re going into negotiations.

Well aware AC has far more lucrative routes than WS.

[accountant]

Exactly, he is trying to make us scared so we accept a crappy deal. Not sure if he is a troll or an actual manager at an airline. This tactic won't work, it's a pilots market so if AC doesn't pay someone else will. Experienced ATPL pilots are in short supply globally so we have no shortage of places to go if AC doesn't pay us what we are worth.

Not trying to scare you. Just being realistic

Sure you could all go work overseas but how many of you will? How many will pack up that have families?

It’s not like you’re all in the same boat. You all have different interests.

[PositiveRate27]

Hey accountant,

You’re on record saying WS should get 4%, nothing more. They ended up with 6x that. What were the reasons they got such a high # (by your assessment) and why were you so far off?

[Ash Ketchum]

Where exactly would you go if AC doesn't up the pay?

I used to work as a software consultant. Way better money than flat pay. I would go back to that.

[Fanblade]

I understand the industry.

When you’re seeing cargo carriers sell off tails, legacy carriers cancel conversions, cargo carriers suggest pilots apply to regionals…. We know crewing will be impacted. The question is how much? Some indicators lag or take time to measure.

The so called “shortage of pilots” may not be as big of an issue as you think. Hence why I asked if YOU thought this would have an impact. I know my thoughts, I’m curious how others are thinking especially when you’re going into negotiations.

Well aware AC has far more lucrative routes than WS.

Cargo is normalizing. It’s not in free fall. Yes there is some right sizing post Covid. But FedEX right sizing is not going to feed US carriers enough pilots to end the shortage. Same here with Cargo jet.

The amount of pilots Canada needs over the next decade will completely outstrip supply unless something drastically alters. This shortage is just in its infancy. A country with as small a population as ours, yet having one of the largest national carrier in the world? Per capita Canada needs on oversized supply to keep up. But the supply side infrastructure (training schools) have been shrunk due to the lack of interest from young people wanting to enter such a poorly paying industry. Karma for the industry players that took advantage of cheap pilot labour. You created the mess. Now you pay.

But you really have missed the point with AC. The pilot shortage impacts the low water mark for wages not the top. Medivac, Northern operation, Regional carriers. Jazz, Porter. In these instances management raised wages for retention and attraction. Supply and demand at work.

At the top tier carriers it doesn’t work like that. Supply and demand takes a back seat to Unionism.

-Top tier carriers have an endless supply of applicants. Why pay more then? Supply and demand isn’t raising rates at AC for new hires for instance. AC doesn’t need too. They won’t until forced. Unionism.

-I’m a few decades into a seniority system. I’m going nowhere. Even going to a US carrier would be a pay cut. There is no need to pay me for retention. This applies at every major airline. No retention issue here. Why pay me more. They won’t until forced. Unionism.

For top tier carriers and their pilots, a pilot shortage is a non issue. The only way it becomes an issue for AC is if the border opens, turning AC into a non top tier carrier.

However, top tier carrier pilots getting a sizeable raise through unionism, becomes an enormous issue for the lower tier carriers competing for pilots.

Is this your issue? You don’t want to compete with a better paid AC pilot? You yourself predicted Porter was to become the #3 carrier in Canada behind WJ and AC. Is this why you are so consumed with pilot wages at these companies?

[androids]

Ignorant post.


ig·no·rant
/ˈiɡnərənt/
adjective
lacking knowledge or awareness in general; uneducated or unsophisticated.
"he was told constantly that he was ignorant and stupid"

The irony here coming from this genius diligently defining the word ignorant. In this thread of all places, lol. ABC123?

[androids]

Would usually spend a Friday afternoon catching up here before the weekend.. but the cabin calls, so a few Thursday thoughts. I'll also try and keep it as plain language and simple as possible to avoid misinterpretation and/or misunderstanding - seems to be a lot of it amongst the ranks?

Comparing Canadian pilots to American pilots - Apples and Oranges, and it always has been. USA leads the western world in way of protectionist policy, Canada is the exact opposite. In fact, the floodgates have been open for some time welcoming the world to our doorstep. This leads to the next -->

Canadian pilot Supply & Demand - To be very frank, the pipeline has been open for quite some time. Attempts to fast track newly arrived Canadians and/or foreign pilots to 705 failed, however 702,703 & 704 capitalized and benefitted tremendously which in turn has turned into a very healthy supply of earnest, eager, motivated, grateful, new 1st generation qualified pilots into the hiring pipeline. I know intimately how these numbers look. It's nice being at the top!

Basic Economics and (Math?) - Scratchpad math increasing each seat by $5 to offset gain?? Does anyone follow market pricing? Does anyone know what this quarter looks like? Is this the price to pay hiring pilots today without post secondary / university degrees? There are much deeper pricing cuts to come. How do you increase seat revenue when they are currently being cut??

Superiority of an AC pilot? Take a look across the apron. See your fellow Canadian pilots sitting in the same machine you are, just painted a different color? They are operating the exact same machine, going the same places, with seats in the back just like your machine - and they are all doing it for cheaper - WAY cheaper. Could be too cheap actually? Who knows, either way AC benefits!

It is simply unfair to be unrealistic on what a new CBA will look like, there are a tremendous amount of readers within these threads making difficult important life decisions based in part of what they read in here. Calling for American like wages is flat out dishonesty. Being grounded in sound economics will go a long way in tempering unattainable expectations. You have all seen WJs deal, you pretty much already know yours.

Last - LOTS of love for the ever elusive mythical "management trolls" within these threads. They are most certainly here, they have always been here and will always be here. Management reads it all

Best wishes and happy weekend to you all!

[RippleRock]

Would usually spend a Friday afternoon catching up here before the weekend.. but the cabin calls, so a few Thursday thoughts. I'll also try and keep it as plain language and simple as possible to avoid misinterpretation and/or misunderstanding - seems to be a lot of it amongst the ranks?

Comparing Canadian pilots to American pilots - Apples and Oranges, and it always has been. USA leads the western world in way of protectionist policy, Canada is the exact opposite. In fact, the floodgates have been open for some time welcoming the world to our doorstep. This leads to the next -->

Canadian pilot Supply & Demand - To be very frank, the pipeline has been open for quite some time. Attempts to fast track newly arrived Canadians and/or foreign pilots to 705 failed, however 702,703 & 704 capitalized and benefitted tremendously which in turn has turned into a very healthy supply of earnest, eager, motivated, grateful, new 1st generation qualified pilots into the hiring pipeline. I know intimately how these numbers look. It's nice being at the top!

Basic Economics and (Math?) - Scratchpad math increasing each seat by $5 to offset gain?? Does anyone follow market pricing? Does anyone know what this quarter looks like? Is this the price to pay hiring pilots today without post secondary / university degrees? There are much deeper pricing cuts to come. How do you increase seat revenue when they are currently being cut??

Superiority of an AC pilot? Take a look across the apron. See your fellow Canadian pilots sitting in the same machine you are, just painted a different color? They are operating the exact same machine, going the same places, with seats in the back just like your machine - and they are all doing it for cheaper - WAY cheaper. Could be too cheap actually? Who knows, either way AC benefits!

It is simply unfair to be unrealistic on what a new CBA will look like, there are a tremendous amount of readers within these threads making difficult important life decisions based in part of what they read in here. Calling for American like wages is flat out dishonesty. Being grounded in sound economics will go a long way in tempering unattainable expectations. You have all seen WJs deal, you pretty much already know yours.

Last - LOTS of love for the ever elusive mythical "management trolls" within these threads. They are most certainly here, they have always been here and will always be here. Management reads it all

Best wishes and happy weekend to you all!

Lt. Kaffee by another name.

This crap is getting old. It's almost a pathetic cut and paste. We've heard it all before, apples not oranges, pilot supply, unique Canadian market........ yadda yadda yadda yadda.......

Here's a message for you, sir. The --severe discount-- on Canadian pilot labor is OVER.......so deal with it.


Hold the Line.

[accountant]

Lt. Kaffee by another name.

This crap is getting old. It's almost a pathetic cut and paste. We've heard it all before, apples not oranges, pilot supply, unique Canadian market........ yadda yadda yadda yadda.......

Here's a message for you, sir. The --severe discount-- on Canadian pilot labor is OVER.......so deal with it.


Hold the Line.

I think what's getting old is you constantly saying the "cheap labour is over" and "hold the line" when we all know your union will capitulate for a more reasonable increase, and not this so called "United" contract. The labour isn't cheap. It's reasonable. Many of you have more days off in a month than 95% of the population. Some of you barely work 12 days a month.

You can hold the line as long as you want. You won't get that contract you're thinking you will.

For everyone pilot that's crying for better wages, there's pilots in the same union more than happy with how things are. You won't be able to please everyone.

Ask WS how their holding the line for United wages went. Oh right... you guys keep forgetting that.

[RippleRock]

Lt. Kaffee by another name.

This crap is getting old. It's almost a pathetic cut and paste. We've heard it all before, apples not oranges, pilot supply, unique Canadian market........ yadda yadda yadda yadda.......

Here's a message for you, sir. The --severe discount-- on Canadian pilot labor is OVER.......so deal with it.


Hold the Line.

I think what's getting old is you constantly saying the "cheap labour is over" and "hold the line" when we all know your union will capitulate for a more reasonable increase, and not this so called "United" contract. The labour isn't cheap. It's reasonable. Many of you have more days off in a month than 95% of the population. Some of you barely work 12 days a month.

You can hold the line as long as you want. You won't get that contract you're thinking you will.

For everyone pilot that's crying for better wages, there's pilots in the same union more than happy with how things are. You won't be able to please everyone.

Ask WS how their holding the line for United wages went. Oh right... you guys keep forgetting that.

Someone HELP! PLEASE! I'm getting "tag teamed" by a pair of Muppets.

You rhetoric is identical. I say black, you two say white. OK...... WHO CARES?.........and more to the point, why do you two care exactly? Tell me why you are spending time your personal time on this forum attempting to educate us. Go ahead.....WHY?

RIGHT. Management schills with a little time on their hands after work trying hard to MANAGE EXPECTATIONS and keep the group wondering and divided. Sorry, we're onto you guys and so is Charlene. We are wearing "World Class Contract" lanyards in increacing numbers for a reason. ACPA's dead, and the full force of a unified pilot body governed by the principles if a "real union" will soon come to bear.

Good luck on your side of the table. There are big bucks at stake.

Hold the Line everyone. See you in Vancouver on the 8th.

[daedalusx]

Lt. Kaffee by another name.

This crap is getting old. It's almost a pathetic cut and paste. We've heard it all before, apples not oranges, pilot supply, unique Canadian market........ yadda yadda yadda yadda.......

Here's a message for you, sir. The --severe discount-- on Canadian pilot labor is OVER.......so deal with it.


Hold the Line.

Many of you have more days off in a month than 95% of the population. Some of you barely work 12 days a month.

The whole “work 12 days a month” is a stupid way to look at it. Most NB drivers will easily work 15+ days a month. Add another 2-3 days for the guys who are commuting on their days off since it’s impossible to afford to live in YYZ and YVR on AC flat pay.

The senior guys that do 12 days a month on the WB still have to deal with fatigue and jet lag to the point that their first day home is usually a write off.

Fatigue and QOL is a major problem in airlines. I’d rather work Mon - Fri 9 to 5 like my Covid tech job and sleep in my bed every night than work 3x 4 days pairing on the road.

[Hysteria]

Lt. Kaffee by another name.

This crap is getting old. It's almost a pathetic cut and paste. We've heard it all before, apples not oranges, pilot supply, unique Canadian market........ yadda yadda yadda yadda.......

Here's a message for you, sir. The --severe discount-- on Canadian pilot labor is OVER.......so deal with it.


Hold the Line.

I think what's getting old is you constantly saying the "cheap labour is over" and "hold the line" when we all know your union will capitulate for a more reasonable increase, and not this so called "United" contract. The labour isn't cheap. It's reasonable. Many of you have more days off in a month than 95% of the population. Some of you barely work 12 days a month.

You can hold the line as long as you want. You won't get that contract you're thinking you will.

For everyone pilot that's crying for better wages, there's pilots in the same union more than happy with how things are. You won't be able to please everyone.

Ask WS how their holding the line for United wages went. Oh right... you guys keep forgetting that.

Hold the line.

[Bingo Fuel]

I think what's getting old is you constantly saying the "cheap labour is over" and "hold the line" when we all know your union will capitulate for a more reasonable increase...

You can hold the line as long as you want. You won't get that contract you're thinking you will.

AvCanda seems to think that labour unions in Canada have power. I wish that was true.

I don't even need to see TA1 to know that most posters here will vote no, and will keep on voting no.

[Fanblade]

Someone HELP! PLEASE! I'm getting "tag teamed" by a pair of Muppets.

He’s too much work. And won’t be stopping. I mean it. He enjoys getting under the skin. More importantly his opinion doesn’t matter. What is he actually accomplishing here other than antagonizing AC pilots. Much like WJ pilots 6 months ago. He didn’t impact WJ and was way off on his predicted outcome.

He actually thinks we are going to capitulate. lol. He doesn’t even understand that the “Union”, in this case ALPA, doesn’t make the call to strike or not. Our own ACA MEC makes that call. It’s an individual pilot group decision. Just because the WJ MEC made a specific decision does not mean the ACA MEC will make the same. Different people. Different group. He seems to think there is a “Union” ( unknown leadership) making an overall decision. Completely wrong.

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and pragmatic. When a deal reaches about 80% support based on polling it will be put to a vote. If the company doesn’t meet that benchmark there will be a strike.

Notice the WJ deal was approved by about 80%. Right on the data driven polling target. They gave their pilots what that wanted. Many of AC pilots thought that deal was underwhelming. But the voting on the deal shows their MEC, based on data, had it right for them.

JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

[accountant]

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and not
JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

So you’re saying you expect at minimum a deal for a 53.65% increase just to erase inflation from 2003-2023, let alone inflation moving forward?

You’re out to lunch.

I may have been slightly off on my projection but there is no way AC is going to give you that right off the top.

[Fanblade]

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and not
JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

So you’re saying you expect at minimum a deal for a 53.65% increase just to erase inflation from 2003-2023, let alone inflation moving forward?

You’re out to lunch.

I may have been slightly off on my projection but there is no way AC is going to give you that right off the top.

Your number assumes no raise since 2003. ACPA wasn’t that pathetic. Really, you think there was no raise at all over 20 years?????

Earlier in this thread I illustrate that there is no specific percentage and why. That it is a range and what the range is.

You have been asked repeatedly now to tell us why we are worth less now, than 20 years ago.

Answer so far…….. Crickets.

Asked if regaining an old wage is even a pay increase………..crickets.

You were slightly off your prediction for WJ? A multiple of 5-6x is not a little off.

[Bingo Fuel]

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and not
JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

So you’re saying you expect at minimum a deal for a 53.65% increase just to erase inflation from 2003-2023, let alone inflation moving forward?

You’re out to lunch.

I may have been slightly off on my projection but there is no way AC is going to give you that right off the top.

Exactly. I'm expecting TA1 will be somewhere around 30% for new hires, and 25% at the top of the pay scale, all spread over four years.

[cdnavater]

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and not
JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

So you’re saying you expect at minimum a deal for a 53.65% increase just to erase inflation from 2003-2023, let alone inflation moving forward?

You’re out to lunch.

I may have been slightly off on my projection but there is no way AC is going to give you that right off the top.

Exactly. I'm expecting TA1 will be somewhere around 30% for new hires, and 25% at the top of the pay scale, all spread over four years.

30% for new hires only brings that up to about 85,000, I’m thinking new hires will get at least 50% and decreasing as you go up to the 25-30% range in the top scale. This from an outsider but realistically where it should be, so I hope I’m right, accountant your thoughts, lol

[CaptDukeNukem]

Hold the line. Fight the power! You guys will get what’s deserved.

[JHR]

WJ rates plus 10-15%
Flat pay down to one year
Maybe some improvements in schedule and commuting.
That's my prediction.
Hopefully I am wrong and you get alot closer to US rates.
Good luck!

[Fanblade]

WJ rates plus 10-15%

You are entering the ball park of 2003 wages adjusted for inflation. 15-20% above WJ would return the AC 737 CA wage to 2003 inflation adjusted to today. I used a specific position only because they are all different.

That wage increase would be just shy of US 737 CA wages with no currency exchange applied.

Example. 15% above WJ would be 322CAD. Alaska is 340USD.
20% above WJ would be 336CAD.
10% above WJ would be 308CAD but at least $15 short of 2003.

[Fanblade]

The decision to accept a deal or strike will be data driven and not
JMO. I can’t see AC pilot support for anything less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today. ( minimum) Why would we be worth less than 20 years ago? Makes no sense. But I’m making an educated guess. I haven’t obviously seen the polling.

So you’re saying you expect at minimum a deal for a 53.65% increase just to erase inflation from 2003-2023, let alone inflation moving forward?

You’re out to lunch.

I may have been slightly off on my projection but there is no way AC is going to give you that right off the top.

Exactly. I'm expecting TA1 will be somewhere around 30% for new hires, and 25% at the top of the pay scale, all spread over four years.

So you expect the ACA MEC to put to vote a deal that pays less than 2003 inflation adjusted to today? Rather the ACA MEC will settle for the WJ deal at 24%?

You don’t seem to have your pulse on the AC pilot. I fully expect that will be the initial company offer. I predict that offer won’t even make it to a vote.


Are you an AC pilot?

Do you know what 2003 inflation adjusted to today looks like?

Why do you believe AC pilots are worth less than 20 years ago?

Is regaining a previous wage actually a raise?

Air Canada produces 2/3 of its revenue on international routes. Why is Air Canada entitled to a pilot compensation competitive advantage simply because its pilots are Canadian?

These questions are meant to get you thinking.

20 years ago our profession took a massive hit during bankruptcy. Then a broken union for the next 20 lost even more. Government intervention and
lost again. As expected industry management is doing everything it can to stop the profession from recovering. They want our losses to be permanent. They want to keep their competitive advantage. Investors want AC to keep its competitive advantage.

We gave in bankruptcy. The company is now very profitable. It’s time to get back what we gave. None of this buying into the management pitch that our post bankruptcy wages are now the new normal. That a Canadian discount after bankruptcy is now permanent or normal.

[futboler14]

Just a quick calculator I built for myself to visualize the different pay increases compared to Porter and WestJet (in this case)

Screenshot.png (59.35 KiB) Viewed 13484 times

Even with a 40% increase, Porter will beat us in year 2 and 3 (all else being equal).

[cjp]

Just a quick calculator I built for myself to visualize the different pay increases compared to Porter and WestJet (in this case)



Screenshot.png



Even with a 40% increase, Porter will beat us in year 2 and 3 (all else being equal).

Just wait to see how Porter responds when AC makes any sort of gain. It's going to get bloody for investors as the arms war ramps up.