Air France 447 Reported Missing

[OntheNumbers]

Now THIS is interesting:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 21,00.html

Yes, and the statement that gets me the most in that article is:

"In these fly-by-wire systems, one never really knows if one has checked out all possible combinations of events to make sure that the computer properly reacts,"

Anyone working in the software business would be foolish to say they could guarantee otherwise.

[YHZChick]

Now THIS is interesting:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 21,00.html

Yes, and the statement that gets me the most in that article is:

"In these fly-by-wire systems, one never really knows if one has checked out all possible combinations of events to make sure that the computer properly reacts,"

Anyone working in the software business would be foolish to say they could guarantee otherwise.

As if it was a non-FBW a/c that this couldn't happen....

(I've given up reading most media reports related to this incident.)

[Widow]

The last few stories have been a bit unclear but it now looks like none of the debris found anywhere is from that flight yet. That must be hard to hear for the families.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories

Thanks cyxe. You're right - it will be very hard for the families to hear. I can truly empathize. If this is indeed the case, and no wreckage has yet been found, perhaps that ejectable/floating ELT might have come in handy after all ... at least to provide a smalller search area.

[YHZChick]

The last few stories have been a bit unclear but it now looks like none of the debris found anywhere is from that flight yet. That must be hard to hear for the families.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories

Thanks cyxe. You're right - it will be very hard for the families to hear. I can truly empathize. If this is indeed the case, and no wreckage has yet been found, perhaps that ejectable/floating ELT might have come in handy after all ... at least to provide a smalller search area.

You may want to read up on ocean currents, particularly in that part of the world before you make that assumption. And how exactly do you guarentee that the ejectable ELT will land and stay in the same area of the debris? If anything, ejectable and flotaing ELTs have great potential to send searchers on a wild goosechase, far away from the actual debris field.

[Widow]

Do you just have an insatiable desire to argue with everything I say? I actually do know something about ocean currents - and how they can be used to figure out where something started. I assume this would have been a 406mhz, providing very accurate location from the time of the first ping - when it happened. I stand by my "perhaps" and "might".

[YHZChick]

Do you just have an insatiable desire to argue with everything I say? I actually do know something about ocean currents - and how they can be used to figure out where something started. I stand by my "perhaps" and "might".

No, I take issue with the fact that you seem to post and form opinions on things clearly without doing even the slightest bit of investigating on your own. The fact that you profess an level of knowledge or expertise on ocean currents just adds to my incredulation that you think floating/ejectable ELTs would be of value. I'm a sailor, and there is a reason personal EPIRBs are attached to your vest, or larger ones are affixed to the boat....

[Widow]

Do you have any idea who I am and the research I have done and been involved in? If not, you're forgiven. Otherwise, you might want to check your facts.

[YHZChick]

Do you have any idea who I am and the research I have done and been involved in? If not, you're forgiven. Otherwise, you might want to check your facts.

I'm not touching that one, thanks. This isn't about who you are. Regardless of your experiences, there are clearly parts of the picture you're missing.

[gulfan]

Do you have any idea who I am and the research I have done and been involved in? If not, you're forgiven. Otherwise, you might want to check your facts.

I'm not touching that one, thanks. This isn't about who you are. Regardless of your experiences, there are clearly parts of the picture you're missing.

I think you're being a little rude.

[Iris]

More speculation.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 07,00.html

My heart goes out to the families. May they find real answers soon.

Iris

[c170b53]

The means by which the transmission were made are known and I'm sure the agencies have the search area defined. As an example, if your aircraft is fitted with a Satcom system in essence you are flying with the mother of all SPOT's. Given time, the right equipment will be in place to locate the wreck. And for those that are worried about CRP and lightning; please remove your aluminum foil headgear and check the back of your heads for possible burn marks. You may need medical assistance.

[ez4u2say]

I was to the understanding the "subject" was "Air France 447 Reported Missing"
It seems to me it has turned into Widow vs YHZChick..hence I think AvCanada Web browsing will be off my things to do list for a while....

[Widow]

I've advocated for some time that all commercial pilots should be equipped with personal locator beacons. Obviously, and especially if there are survivors, that would be of great benefit. However - what about when those people are trapped inside a sunken wreck? Useless, just like a sunken ELT - unless of course it is waterproof at depth (and up to xx metres below the surface!). Anything that can reduce the search area in such cases is of benefit. A search area of 781 sq. km. (http://www.laht.com/article.asp?Article ... ryId=12395) is huge.

[TTJJ]

Widow, you seem unwilling to accept any explanation from those of us in the Industry and appear bent on finding fault with systems put in place by professionals who are motovated by nothing other than saving lives. Your "questions" to date on AVCANADA hide thinly veiled contempt and critisisms of any government agency dealing with aviation.

However, solely due to your position as a Moderator on an Industry specific forum, which I dearly love, and bowing to the wishes of Canwhitewolf I will try once again to explain the workings of a part of our Industry and my little part of the World - the South Atlantic in particular.

be kind..instruct.. dont lecture

Instructing is however a two way street. One must be willing to learn for it to work.
You seem adept at dictionary quotes,

When you combine the ACARS critical alerts with lack of call-in, inability to contact and known weather, the aircraft was known to be missing. Missing does mean

1. not in its proper or usual place and unable to be found
2. not able to be traced and not known to be dead

I have another one for you.

Obstinate:
ob⋅sti⋅nate  /ˈɒbstənɪt/ –adjective
1. firmly or stubbornly adhering to one's purpose, opinion, etc.; not yielding to argument, persuasion, or entreaty.
2. characterized by inflexible persistence or an unyielding attitude; inflexibly persisted in or carried out

I have asked questions and made comments, based on my personal experience.

This is what puzzles me the most. With your "personal experience", reference the tragedy that has befallen your family, you have a very cavalier attitude in sending people out low over the ocean, at night, in all types of weather to no known destination and for no confirmed reason. Lets try and talk this through.

Please try and learn.

To wit:

This is the South Atlantic route system between Brazil and Europe.


The area is all RVSM, meaning there is 1000 feet vertical separation between aircraft on the airways.
There are only really 5 airways to Europe, but SBFN (the small base from where the SAR ops are being staged out of) has other airways and things to monitor. They also have SAR responsibilities for shipping in the area.
Longitudinal separation in the area is 20 minutes between aircraft. You can only have 3 aircraft at each altitude per airway per hour.
We will just consider the airways to/from Europe AND just the altitudes that commercial jets normally use here (FL 300 to FL 370 inclusive) for the purposes of clarity.

5 Airways X 8 Flight Levels X 3 Aircraft per hour gives us a possibility of 120 aircraft per hour.
The distance from The Brazilian Coast to GVAC (Sal, the nearest usable airport for a A-330, B-747 etc) is just over 1500 NM.

Just to put that in perspective, that is the distance from Calgary to Ottawa...with NOTHING in between.

At a nominal 500nm/hour (more like 470), it would take at least 3 hours to cross the ocean between suitable airports.
120 Aircraft X 3 hours means that there could be 360 aircraft making the crossing on those airways and at those altitudes alone.
That is why SAR has to stay on the ground waiting for confirmation of an accident before launching. Any one of those aircraft might need SAR for real.

The aircraft are traveling at about 8 NM or 15 km per minute...1 km every 4 seconds...about the speed of a .38 calibre bullet. If the aircraft changes heading just 30 degrees, for every 1 minute (8 miles) he travels, he is 4 miles off the centerline of the airway. In 10 minutes, he is 40 miles off course. He may be 100 miles off the centerline.

OK, there were ACARS messages and he was late, but there was no ELT nor distress call.
I ask you, looking at the above where are you going to send the SAR aircraft to?
Plus, if you send an aircraft out what is he going to do out there?

Does it not make more sense to wait and confirm that he didn't get to the other side than running around all over the ocean for, quite probably nothing?

In reality, a SAR aircraft would not be launched even if he had declared an emergency.
Aircraft declare emergencies and keep flying all the time. If they couldn't they would never get certified.
They haven’t been falling out of the sky like leaves lately, so there is/was no reason to dream that this one would either.

A SAR flight is only launched if the aircraft has declared that he is ditching or if it can be reasonably assumed that the aircraft is down...not just with problems...or late.

If there had been one single survivor, it might have made a difference.

It might have, but as aircraft have a pretty good track record of not crashing while enroute, the SAR aircraft would be out on a lot of wild goose chases. They would be out of position to attend to a real emergency.

And as we are talking about oceans and thunderstorms at night, it would be just a matter of time before one of THEM went in. So we are probably saving lives by not launching them on a whim.

I am not questioning whether SOPs (or whatever they're called) were followed...

You know, all this aviation stuff (SOP's, Regulations, what have you) are not written by someone sitting on their toilet because they ran out of things to read while sitting there.
They are, believe it or not, written by competent people who are professionals in this field of aviation and then tested by other competent professional people.
They may be administrated by incompetent people at times, but the technical/operational planners are pretty sharp.

They are then executed by brave, professional and devoted men and women who one day might just save your butt because they weren't out somewhere on a wild goose chase as demanded by the amateurs in the crowd.

Please, believe in the pros.

Take it for what it is worth.

[Cat Driver]

Just for a break in this discussion have you ever landed at SBFN TTJJ?

It has one of the most unusual mountains I have ever seen on a tropical island just a few miles from the airport.

[Fox 3]

TTJJ: Great post (the non-sarcastic portions) I definitely learned something new today.

clunckdriver: Interesting bit of history there, I had no idea those "CPI's" ever existed...it's a shame those didn't get used instead of (or along with) the ELT's. Thanks for the info

YHZChick: You're leaving a bitter taste in my mouth. I was going to reply to you but I think I'm just going to ignore your posts from now on. I don't appreciate your attacks on other members and I don't think it's called for...maybe count to ten before hitting submit? Just an idea, please don't come back and say "how do you know I don't count to ten?? maybe if you do some research and ask me first then you would have some accurate information to post".



Side Note: This morning when I heard on the news that the debris found was not from Air France 447 I was completely shocked...I was hoping it was from AF447 because it would mean some real answers would be revealed and the people affected by this tragedy would also get some answers. I haven't been this interested in a missing plane investigation in a long long time.

[canwhitewolf]

The means by which the transmission were made are known and I'm sure the agencies have the search area defined. As an example, if your aircraft is fitted with a Satcom system in essence you are flying with the mother of all SPOT's. Given time, the right equipment will be in place to locate the wreck. And for those that are worried about CRP and lightning; please remove your aluminum foil headgear and check the back of your heads for possible burn marks. You may need medical assistance.

********************************************************************

give your own head a shake and apply this 13 volt video to I million volts or more and maybe 300000 amps

from my perspective there is that possibility, (and i say possibilty), if there are extreme circumstances or maybe even less extreme circumstances, the research was done they apparently solved the problem, but maybe just maybe there is a possibility

Carbon fiber or carbon fibre (alternately called graphite fiber, graphite fibre or carbon graphite) is a material consisting of extremely thin fibers about 0.0002–0.0004 inches (0.005–0.010 mm) in diameter and composed mostly of carbon atoms. ...


http://www.youtube.com/v/s9eE2jFoioM&co ... ram><param

[Widow]

Widow, you seem unwilling to accept any explanation from those of us in the Industry and appear bent on finding fault with systems put in place by professionals who are motovated by nothing other than saving lives. Your "questions" to date on AVCANADA hide thinly veiled contempt and critisisms of any government agency dealing with aviation.

Just what is it, exactly, that you think I am motivated by – other than saving lives? Not being “in the industry” does not mean I am incapable of knowing and understanding something of the industry. Look at my questions and suggestions as those that “the general public” is and will be asking, if it makes you more comfortable. I am not looking to find fault, I am looking for ways to improve things – because I believe things can always be improved, especially in an age of such rapid technological advances. I can only apologize if you have read contempt into my postings on this thread, as it has not been my intention.

I understand the dangers of a SAR operation – even under the best of circumstances. I also understand that these particular circumstances are just about the worst possible. I would not want SAR operative in such dangerous conditions unless the situation was truly critical. But that’s just it – in the first minutes and hours after AF447 “disappeared”, we did not know if there was a possibility of survivors. But we “could” have known the situation was critical.

In a large proportion of serious accidents things happen so quickly that there is no time for a mayday, or happen in places where comm. doesn’t work, and there is no ELT hit (submerged or destroyed). Yet these are often the accidents where people need help the fastest and where it may be most critical to learn the whys and wherefores. So why not look for ways to improve the existing systems? Examination of this accident by the professional experts will, I am quite sure, result in many recommendations for change. Some of those will very likely be in line with the questions I have been asking.

If it had been possible to know within minutes, and despite the lack of ELT or mayday, that the a/c was in very serious trouble and where it was, I would be surprised if those brave men and women would not have considered the potential to save 228 lives as cause to launch. So why not look at ways to make the ACARS or flight recorders able to provide that cause and location? Again, although it seems clear that it would have made no difference in this case (except perhaps locating the wreckage sooner, or at all – which would also have been good), it does not mean that it wouldn’t make a difference in the future. We’re supposed to learn from accidents, right? Why not start as soon as possible? Just because we aren’t the experts working on the investigation doesn’t mean we can’t have discussion about possible improvements. Some of us do advocate for improvements in other ways than chatting on a discussion board. Sometimes it takes those advocates to move the “manual writers” and bureaucracy to move more quickly – hence saving life and limb.

Crash Prompts Call For Black Box Reforms
After Air France Ocean Crash, Call Grows For Flight Recorders That Can Transmit Data
June 4, 2009 | by Nancy Cordes


(CBS) Investigators may never know for sure what happened to Air France Flight 447 unless they can find the flight recorders -- the so-called black boxes.

To say that will be difficult is an understatement. They could be at the bottom of the ocean -- two miles down.

As CBS News correspondent Nancy Cordes reports, experts think there's a better way to get valuable data.
________________________________________

When airliners go down, their black boxes nearly always provide the critical clues to what went wrong.

If a black box is damaged or can't be retrieved, those secrets go down with it.

In this age of satellite technology, some experts question why airplanes can't beam cockpit conversations and flight data directly to a storage facility via satellite. Thus creating a real time record of the plane's operations.

"I think it is time that we look for some alternatives," says Pete Goelz, former managing director of the National Transportation Safety Board.

"People raise the issue of cost. But think of the tens of millions of dollars that are being spent right now mounting this search today in the South Pacific," said Goelz.

It's a search that may prove fruitless. Investigators never found the black boxes from the planes that crashed into the world trade center on 9/11.

Still, downloading data from the thousands of airplanes that are aloft at any one time would be an enormous undertaking.

"We currently don't have the technological wherewithal for an aircraft to transmit that much data continuously," says Dan Elwell, vice-president of the Aerospace Industries Association.

And there's another problem. Pilots unions have long objected to more monitoring of flight crews. As they did when Colgan Air proposed randomly sampling cockpit recordings from flights to check for excessive chit chat after the February crash in Buffalo, N.Y., which killed 50.

"They believe they deserve and need some degree of privacy,'' said Goelz.

The question is, could a system be designed that wouldn't break the bank and would ensure that the data would only be examined if there was an emergency in flight? Or it may be that current black boxes need to be beefed up, made floatable or have their signal beacons last longer.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/06/ ... 3424.shtml

[canwhitewolf]

Widow, you seem unwilling to accept any explanation from those of us in the Industry and appear bent on finding fault with systems put in place by professionals who are motovated by nothing other than saving lives. Your "questions" to date on AVCANADA hide thinly veiled contempt and critisisms of any government agency dealing with aviation.
<snip>

They are then executed by brave, professional and devoted men and women who one day might just save your butt because they weren't out somewhere on a wild goose chase as demanded by the amateurs in the crowd.

Please, believe in the pros.

Take it for what it is worth.

****************************************************************

well if i take it for what its worth, you broke the "instruct -dont lecture request" big time and your sarcasm at times is not really needed if you wish to instruct, (now im about to break my own advice as well),and I think your opinion of widow sucks.
she tries damn hard to make a difference and observes the failings at their root and it indeed people like her in the past who have made differences and will again, and these "professionals who are motovated by nothing other than saving lives" people you talk about are sincere in their efforts but manipulated by others to adhere to agendas or cost factors, polticians come to mind, ceo's as well, theres always an influence, finances are always involved

there are many holes in what you said, but to get to basics, here we are in the year 2009, we have the space shuttle and a space station we do miraculous things on this planet and yet we dont have a simple device that transmits a crash location without error to a sattelite to show where it crashed in every circumstance, thats the bottom line here and I feel confident is what widow is questioning...

why cant we have that fail proof system that says....."they are here! we are here!" help help when you can!

of course we do have the 406 and 121.5 elt stuff but so far there have been errors or failures a lot and people not found..ie steve fossett (millions and millions of dollars spent trying to find him)(or ron boychuk who probably went down within 20 miles of lytton on a clear day basically) just for an example and both were basically enroute flights

you state.." OK, there were ACARS messages and he was late, but there was no ELT nor distress call.
I ask you, looking at the above where are you going to send the SAR aircraft to?
Plus, if you send an aircraft out what is he going to do out there?
Does it not make more sense to wait and confirm that he didn't get to the other side than running around all over the ocean for, quite probably nothing? unquote ( I disagree with most of that logic)

I agree with you a bit on that however, those who are required to do these jobs are trained to do these jobs and do them safely as possible, if its not safe they wont go most times, but ive been ordered to go at times when i knew it wasnt safe. I did a check ride on an experienced SAR crew one time and advised them of a dangerous situation and my advice wasnt listened to, just a few days later they all died in the same circumstance i had presented and I lost 6 dear friends

but in the above example you gave had there been a lat long locator transmitted, had there been notice of a crash had there been a location, yes crews could have gone out and yes at night, WX permiting and maybe there were fires to help locate the crash , who knows, and perhaps in another circumstance could have saved lives but in this circumstance from whats been presented so far doubt it would have helped,who knows -maybe this is another twa800 scenario

the bottom line is the present systems are sometimes useless and thats obvious

and to that I support widow for seeing the bottom line of whats required, and having the courage to call a spade a spade

[canwhitewolf]

Experts mull over lessons from Brazil plane crash
By LOUISE WATT – 58 minutes ago

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... wD98KN0VG0

LONDON (AP) — The mysterious disappearance of an Air France jet this week while flying over the Atlantic in fierce thunderstorms is stirring a debate about whether new technologies and procedures are needed to prevent similar tragedies in the future.

Experts say it's going to be hard to build a better plane than the Airbus A330 that plunged into the ocean Sunday, killing all 228 aboard. But they see room for improvement in other technological areas that could help boost safety.

One idea is to move from radar to satellite surveillance systems that would allow air traffic controllers to track a plane's progress on flights across the ocean: currently, planes go out of radar range after 200 miles (320 kilometers) from land.

Another focus has been on how to make black boxes more easily recoverable in an ocean crash.

[Flying Nutcracker]

The experts must be reading Avcanada...

This brings up a good discussion. Why can't we track airplanes using satellites? Wouldn't that be a more sensible way of finding a lost aircraft? Last known position would be very accurate. Would there be deficiencies in that sort of a system? Outages, lack of coverage, aircraft system failing in flight... Like I said earlier, no system would be able to totally prevent loss of life, but there are areas where we can improve the systems to save more lives. In that, I agree with Widow in the sense that we need to find the deficiencies. However, I think it's prudent to get more facts about the events before making calls on what supposedly went wrong in the process. Questions are good as long as the answers are heard.

If this was an inflight breakup there would be a scattered area of debris that would float with the currents. The area would be bigger over time. It's not going to be easy. And who's to say the system would work in ALL circumstances... I would say that this accident is a very RARE occurrance.

[Flying Nutcracker]

A question that sits in my head is why this aircraft was dispatched on this particular route. I realise there are only a few routes to choose from, and thunderstorms are more common than snow in Calgary. But... were the thunderstorms forecast? Did their dispatchers keep a close eye on the progress of the flight and the weather enroute? Did the flightcrew ask for a reroute? Did dispatch suggest a reroute? Were there any transmissions from the flightcrew indicating a need for a diversion around the weather? Did they even know the thunderstorms were there??? 56000 foot cells are pretty big, but can be hard to find when you're flying IMC in a cirrus stratus layer.

Anyone flying these waters have any insight as to the route preferences when flightplanning across the south Atlantic? Are there alternatives?

I sure hope they find the boxes so we can learn about the circumstances!

[Widow]

AF447 Data Suggests Faulty Speed Data
Jun 5, 2009
Jens Flottau/Frankfurt jflottau@freenet.de


Data from Air France flight 447's automatic ACARS message indicates the pilots may not have had access to the correct speed information during the final minutes of the flight.

The list of fault messages sent to Air France's operations headquarters in Paris includes a sequence of notes that hints at the three Air Data Inertial Reference Unit (ADIRU) computers to show diverging information. ADIRU compiles data delivered by the pitot tubes and process it to the aircraft's other computers.

The list, obtained by AviationWeek among others, gives an insight into the sequence of computer and system failures on the Airbus A330-200. During the last four minutes the situation worsened. At 2:10 a.m. zulu, the autopilot was either switched off by the pilots or automatically. The function is switched off automatically if speed drops by some margin below a previously defined minimum. The aircraft subsequently flew in "alternate law" conditions that do not provide full automatic envelope protection. Other functions, such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) or the rudder travel limiter failed at the same time. Shortly after the ADIRU notices (2:11 and 2:12 a.m.), the ACARS alerts show a "F/CTL PRIM 1 FAULT" and a "F/CTL SEC 1 FAULT" indicating malfunctions of the first primary and secondary flight control computers. Shortly thereafter, the string of messages ends.

In an "Accident Information Telex" to operators, Airbus writes that the ACARS content indicates that "there was inconsistency between the different measured airspeeds. Therefore and without prejudging the final outcome of the investigation, the data available leads Airbus to remind operators what are the applicable operational recommendations in case of unreliable airspeed information."

The diverging speed inputs could come from icing of the pitot tubes, industry sources indicate - a phenomenon not uncommon when flying in weather conditions that prevailed at the time of the accident. In its telex, Airbus points out that "the aircraft was crossing a tropical multicell convective area at the time of the accident."

The ACARS content only shows what systems and computers malfunctioned, but there's no information yet available about what actually happened to important parameters such as airspeed, altitude or pitch angle during the last few minutes of the flight. It also is still unclear if the loss of control happened as a result of a multiple system failure and subsequent stall or because of the severe turbulence that is likely to have hit the aircraft during its 75 mile (or 12 min.) travel through the storm front.

Brazil's Defence Ministry had to admit on Friday that wreckage found floating on the Atlantic on Tuesday does not belong to the aircraft. A senior French government official pointed out that French search troops have not found a single piece of the aircraft yet. While there appears to be no hope for survivors among the 228 on board, finding the accident site quickly could turn out to be crucial to find out more about what caused AF448 to crash. The black box's batteries last for around 30 days, and the French air accident investigation branch BEA has indicated it is not optimistic it can find the piece in deep sea.

Separately, a Spanish newspaper quotes the crew of an Iberia Airbus A340 that flew seven minutes behind AF447 on the same track. According to the crew, air traffic control failed to contact the Air France jet after 1:33 a.m. zulu in spite of trying several times. The Iberia pilots - who deviated 30 miles east from the track to circumnavigate thick clowds - then tried to get in touch with their French colleagues, too, but did not succeed either. The pilot of a Lufthansa Boeing 747-400 that had passed the region 30 minutes earlier said that he had to fly several detours to avoid heavy weather, but otherwise described the flight as routine.

www.aviationweek.com

[canwhitewolf]

Does AF 447 Reveal the Safety Risks of Plastic Aircraft?

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2009/06 ... -materials


Composite aircraft may hide dangerous flaws

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1 ... flaws.html

and there is also the case of amer587 out of nyc i think

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2W8XFuS0po&NR=1

i dont like plastic airplanes yet and I dont like the fact that planes can be taken over by a someone on the ground either

[Eric Janson]

This brings up a good discussion. Why can't we track airplanes using satellites? Wouldn't that be a more sensible way of finding a lost aircraft? Last known position would be very accurate. Would there be deficiencies in that sort of a system?

Such a system already exists. It's called ADS-B.

Not all aircraft are equipped with the datalink. A lot of countries have not installed ADS cabability.