Post horribly inaccurate forecasts here

lilfssister · Post by **lilfssister** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:25 pm

Thanks for the vote of confidence Skipper!

flyinhigh, if an observer has reason to doubt the validity of the information meteorological instruments are giving them, it is ALWAYS in order to ask for a pilot report of the ceiling.

Canus Chinookus, the forecasters are STILL supposed to adjust TAF's and GFA's for local conditions. May not be done as well or often due to the fact that there's less forecast offices doing it these days?

If you're flying in an area new to you, check out http://www.navcanada.ca/NavCanada.asp?L ... efault.xml for local weather anomalies.

Icebound · Post by **Icebound** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:51 pm

master switch wrote:post here horrible weather forcasting like this:

METAR CXYZ 100000Z 27010KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN DRSN VV005 M09/M11 A2974 RMK SN8 SLP087=
SPECI CXYZ 100012Z 28005KT 1SM -SHSN DRSN VV004 RMK SN8=

TAF CXYZ 092340Z 100012 28012G22KT P6SM SCT050
BECMG 0204 28010KT

this is real and no editing, except for the airport id to protect the forecast guys.
what is the point to reading the TAF anymore?
i'd like to see how often this happens.

In future, there is no reason to hide the airport ID. Official forecasts and official observations are public record and are supposed to be archived. Forecasters are supposed to have thick skins about stuff like this and are supposed to use such information to improve their product. If it can be looked at in real time, maybe a reason can be determined.

How long did the low-vis condition persist?

Some weather situations are more straight-forward than others. For example, CYYZ may be a forecast problem for Easter Monday (at least for whether MVFR vs good VMC) as a system skirts just to the south and may, or NOT, affect them.

To answer your question: The point of reading the TAF is to see what the forecaster thinks is going to happen. This is not pulled out of thin air, but is a best estimate based on current information, expensive computer simulators of the atmosphere, and the forecaster's few years of university education to understand weather processes. And yes, it does mean that a bad observation can mislead him.

There is nothing to prevent you from also making your own estimate of what is going to happen. These days, you have almost the same information as he does.... http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca has the simulator's forecast surface and upper air charts, for example, as well as the current charts. radar loops, satellite pictures, link to METARS, etc.........

In fact, as a pilot, part of your weather-awareness for the area should enable you to make a reasonable guess as to the reason that a forecast is going wrong.... that is the whole purpose of the ground-school weather modules.... but I do admit that the pilot-training in this area seems to be, shall we say...well...pathetic.

...

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:20 pm

The TEMPO on this one is just them not knowing...

TEMPO 1020 4SM BR OVC010

Icebound · Post by **Icebound** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:33 pm

hazatude wrote:The TEMPO on this one is just them not knowing...

TEMPO 1020 4SM BR OVC010

They rarely "know".... it's always just a best estimate.

They do stuff like that in marginal conditions when an amendment criteria is being crossed.... it keeps them from having to issue an amendment every time the FEW010 turns BKN010 and back again.

When I see something like that, I try to figure out why they thought they had to do that (or try to get a briefer to tell me WHY). If I can see why, and since I am not an MVFR kind of guy, I would be real careful about ignoring it. On the other hand, if the METAR shows an hour or two of VMC with no SPECIs and no good reason can be found for their caution....I get more optimistic that they are just doing CYA.

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Fri May 13, 2005 11:57 am

SPECI CABC 131837Z CCA 06012KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN054 OVC060 RMK SC3SC3AC2 TCU ASOCTD/VIS N 3=

TAF CABC 131739Z 131818 12012G22KT P6SM SCT040 BKN090

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:53 am

TAF CABC 271439Z 271512 FM1700Z 18012KT P6SM BKN025 OVC100 TEMPO 1702 5SM -SHRA BR OVC015

METAR CABC 271700Z 18006KT 5SM BR OVC006 22/20 A2995 RMK SF8 SLP140=

desksgo · Post by **desksgo** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:56 am

CYHM 281029Z 281212 FM2300Z HAZ WILL GET LAID

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:59 am

not sure who that is but lets hope the TAF is accurate on that one

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:26 pm

desksgo wrote:CYHM 281029Z 281212 FM2300Z HAZ WILL GET LAID

If your gf is home then my chances are 30% PROB

Captain S itmagnet · Post by **Captain S itmagnet** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:34 pm

Is this "horrible" enough to qualify?

New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina bears down on them.

KMSY 281753Z 07016G24KT 10SM SCT033 BKN200 32/23 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03170233 10328 20278 58012
KMSY 281720Z 281818 08020G25KT P6SM SCT030 BKN200
FM0300 02080G110KT 1/4SM +RA OVC003

KMSY 290353Z 04027G34KT 7SM -RA SCT019 OVC060 27/24 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 05038/0255 RAB0258 SLP991 P0002 T02670239
KMSY 290105Z 290124 05015G25KT 6SM -RA SCT020 BKN040
TEMPO 0206 VRB65KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC020CB
FM0700 04045G75KT 1SM +SHRA SCT005 OVC020CB
TEMPO 0913 VRB120KT 1/4SM +SHRA OVC010CB
FM1800 28045KT 6SM -RA SCT020 BKN050
TEMPO 1822 3SM -RA SCT030 BKN080

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Wed Jul 05, 2006 5:56 am

SPECI CABC 051247Z AUTO 32008G15KT 9SM BKN013 BKN072 17/14 A2996=

TAF CABC 050939Z 051022 30008KT P6SM FEW020 TEMPO 1013 3SM BR
FM1600Z 30015KT P6SM SCT050 TEMPO 1721 BKN050

bigfssguy · Post by **bigfssguy** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:15 pm

Just in case anyone is mistaken, cause i run into this often. FSS only do the observing, Enviroment Canada has Met forecasters who do the TAF's, GFA's etc. FSS have nothing to do with any forecasting. I love it when i get a phone call from a pilot after i changed the weather to tweak the TAF so they can legaly take of or land or whatever they are going to do. I try to explain that enviroment is responsible for those things. Then turn around and 2 days later he is phoning me asking me to change the TAF.....It's just banging your head against the wall sometimes.

trey kule · Post by **trey kule** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:24 pm

Big FSS guy wrote:

It's just banging your head against the wall sometimes.

Well, that explains things.

Speedbird Junior · Post by **Speedbird Junior** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:13 pm

Unable to comprehend text in all Master Switch's posts due to amazingly hot girl in photo, glass of rye and coke in my hand, and all the resources the internet has to offer at my fingertips....

square · Post by **square** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:38 pm

{...} but no one can see the future.

Well actually, science is all about predicting the future. If it doesn't make a prediction, you can't even call it science; if it gets it wrong, well then it's bad science. But yes, they often can and do see the future.

TEMPO 0913 VRB120KT 1/4SM +SHRA OVC010CB

Those met guys are just useless eh?

grimey · Post by **grimey** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:20 pm

Bad TAFs often arn't the fault of the met guys either. If a station is fairly isolated, and there arn't many stations around it, the TAF is going to be garbage a whole lot more than it will be if it has 10 other stations within 100NM to help with the forecast. They can only use the information they have available.

TITAN · Post by **TITAN** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:51 pm

Masterswitch your hot can I flick you on!!
sorry could not resist !!!

By the way back on topic TAF's are not all that bad ! remenber the people who Analyze the weather , are just like you they don't know much more about it than you do! we as pilots have to take all available data and Analyze it our self.... use the GFA , TAF , surf progs, then you might just not agree with the TAF at all ,and realize that the weather is going to be alot worse than forcasted!!!

bigfssguy · Post by **bigfssguy** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:05 am

trey kule wrote:Big FSS guy wrote:

It's just banging your head against the wall sometimes.
Well, that explains things.

Get Bent!!!!!!!

Redneck_pilot86 · Post by **Redneck_pilot86** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:12 pm

SPECI CYPL 081845Z 27012KT 240V310 12SM -TSRA BKN045CB BKN260 RMK CB6CI2=

METAR CYPL 081900Z 27022G34KT 240V310 6SM -TSRA FEW010 BKN030CB BKN260 19/17 A2959 RERA RMK SF1CB6CI1 G48 PST HR SLP016=

TAF AMD CYPL 081854Z 081801 27012KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040 TEMPO 1820 3SM TSRA BR BKN020 OVC040CB

FM2000Z 27012KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040 TEMPO 2022 3SM -SHRA BR OVC020

Bit of a difference between 12 kts and 48kts

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:57 am

Harold Hussain got fired from CITYTV...their forecasts are about to get a lot more accurate.

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:17 am

TAF AMD CABC 111340Z 111312 10005KT P6SM BKN004
BECMG 1315 SCT004

METAR CABC 111600Z 13003KT 15SM BKN210 OVC230 23/17 A3010 RMK CI6CC1 SLP191=

Chop&Drop · Post by **Chop&Drop** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:58 am

SPECI CY 261021Z 18003KT 1SM BR FEW002 FEW250 18/ RMK FG1SF1CI1 VIS NW 4=
SPECI CY 261044Z 21004KT 8SM FEW005 SCT100 19/ RMK SF1AC2=
METAR CY 261100Z 22003KT 8SM FEW005 FEW035 BKN085 20/19 A2991 RMK SF1SC2AC3 SLP127=

TAF CY 261147Z 261212 20005KT P6SM SCT120 TEMPO 1214 5SM BR

You should have seen the TAF last night. Was calling for 1/2 mile and VVof 200! Thought I was going to sleep in but alas no dice!

FL410 · Post by **FL410** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:01 pm

Let's see how this one turns out.

TAF AMD CYKF 021855Z 021802 23012G22KT P6SM SCT040 TEMPO 1820 1SM
+TSRA BR BKN008 OVC015CB PROB30 1820 VRB40G80KT 0SM +FC VV000

cyyz · Post by **cyyz** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:30 pm

TAF AMD CYYZ 021912Z 021918 26012G22KT P6SM BKN030 TEMPO 1921
VRB15G30KT 2SM +TSRA BR BKN015 BKN030CB

They got rid of the gusts and the TS....

and now they've put them back in....

LOL....

Redneck_pilot86 · Post by **Redneck_pilot86** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 6:29 pm

I called Winnipeg for the weather today at one point, the guy said "Scattered TCu's with associated Cu....what? who writes this shit? oh sorry."

ST

Post horribly inaccurate forecasts here

I trust the TAF

Re: Post horribly inaccurate forecasts here

post horribly inaccurate forecasts here