The Return to Normal?

[Rockie]

There are a number of crisis facing humanity right now the consequences of which dwarf this virus, but one thing Covid 19 has been good for is offering a condensed masterclass in the right way and the wrong way to deal with a crisis. There is a minority percentage of the population, let's say 30%, who through selfishness, corruption, willful stupidity, weakness, or a combination thereof will choose the wrong way every time. The other 70% of the people can no longer afford to indulge the 30% and will eventually stop being nice.

People who think I'm harsh should just consider me ahead of the curve.

[FL-200]

.

[chaster]

There are a number of crisis facing humanity right now the consequences of which dwarf this virus, but one thing Covid 19 has been good for is offering a condensed masterclass in the right way and the wrong way to deal with a crisis. There is a minority percentage of the population, let's say 30%, who through selfishness, corruption, willful stupidity, weakness, or a combination thereof will choose the wrong way every time. The other 70% of the people can no longer afford to indulge the 30% and will eventually stop being nice.

People who think I'm harsh should just consider me ahead of the curve.

Ahead of the curve? Right on! I don’t know your story but you must have been worth the CASH on a crossing! Lighten up ROCKIE) If you don’t feel safe no Problem Stay home and wait for the JAB! Sorry my friend the current exercise ain’t gonna cut it! Happy to wear a mask and do my best to social distance but there are so many holes in the current policy it’s an exercise in Stupidity! Have a beer byy

[mixturerich]

Everybody needs to calm down

[Jimmyh787]

Jimmyh787 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 2:52 pm
After that embarrassing polarizing display, I’m going to guess none of you even took the time to read the most current projections I’ve previously posted. Here it is one more time, directly from the CDC, not a BS biased media source.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
Can you give me the Coles Notes on the CDC info? I’m not sure what the takeaway is.

Ya no problem. Essentially they’ve taken all of the data up to April 29th and broken it into 5 different scenarios. 1/2 are optimistic, 3/4 are pessimistic and 5 is the most accurate projection based on current data until April 29th. They make it clear this is subject to change of course, as more info is gathered in the coming months.

The most accurate projection shows a symptomatic case fatality rate of 0.4% for those who obviously display symptoms. They also project a 35% asymptomatic infection rate, which would bring the IFR (infected fatality rate) to more like 0.25%.

The study also breaks down the fatality rate into demographics by age group. Those infected showing symptoms aged:
0-49 - 0.05% mortality rate
50-64 - 0.2%
65+ - 1.3%

Feel free to check it out and mention anything I may have missed.

[kiaszceski]

Everybody needs to calm down

Yeah... 40°C outside feels a bit uncomfortable ...

[florch]

Jimmyh787 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 2:52 pm
After that embarrassing polarizing display, I’m going to guess none of you even took the time to read the most current projections I’ve previously posted. Here it is one more time, directly from the CDC, not a BS biased media source.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
Can you give me the Coles Notes on the CDC info? I’m not sure what the takeaway is.

Ya no problem. Essentially they’ve taken all of the data up to April 29th and broken it into 5 different scenarios. 1/2 are optimistic, 3/4 are pessimistic and 5 is the most accurate projection based on current data until April 29th. They make it clear this is subject to change of course, as more info is gathered in the coming months.

The most accurate projection shows a symptomatic case fatality rate of 0.4% for those who obviously display symptoms. They also project a 35% asymptomatic infection rate, which would bring the IFR (infected fatality rate) to more like 0.25%.

The study also breaks down the fatality rate into demographics by age group. Those infected showing symptoms aged:
0-49 - 0.05% mortality rate
50-64 - 0.2%
65+ - 1.3%

Feel free to check it out and mention anything I may have missed.

I read the article, but that's a good breakdown. Thank you.

0-49 0.05%, = 1/2000 if I get it for the average Joe or Josephine. I'm in decent shape, not fat, don't smoke, no aggravating factors, so I'll wager I have better odds than this. Take your vitamin D, and get outside, take good care of yourselves. It appears to have a shorter half life in UV. I'm going about my business notwithstanding no income to spend. Wearing a mask appropriately is courteous to your fellow citizens like washing your hands after you take a dump. We all wash our hands I hope.

[truedude]

I understand why health authorities and experts all over the world reacted the way that they did. From the first day of Infectious Disease 101 they are warned that some respiratory illness of unknown origin will one day arrive and wipe out half of society. And everything about COVID19 initially made it appear as if this was it. Coupled with that China initially hid data, and downplayed important aspects, led everyone to believe it was far more serious than it was. And it is serious, I am by no means saying we should take zero action. It is absolutely deadly to certain population groups.

But, and this is a big but, it is not nearly as dangerous as initially believed. We have given way to mass hysteria on a level I don't think seen since H.G. Wells War of the Worlds was read live on the radio. I have the increasing suspicion that a lot of the policy makers know they over reacted, and are scared to admit to that. But it is time to reverse course far faster than we are, and see if we can undo some of this economic damage before it really takes root.

And to anyone comparing this to the Spanish flu. Here are a few facts to help put things in perspective:

Average life span in the United States in 1917 was about 50 years.
Insulin was invented in 1921
Chemotherapy in the 40's, as in 1918 radiation was not really understood.
Heart Stints were invented in 1986
Beta Blockers in the 60's
Infant mortality in the early 20th century was around 16%

In short, the Spanish flu killed healthy young people. Today, COVID 19 primarily kills people that wouldn't have even been alive in 1918 to begin with. This is not the Spanish flu. The second wave of the Spanish flu, would literally kill people within hours of the onset of symptoms. Comparing the two, would be similar to trying to compare flights plans for a bi-plane and a 777. Sure they are airplanes by definition, but otherwise, it isn't really comparable.

[mbav8r]

I understand why health authorities and experts all over the world reacted the way that they did. From the first day of Infectious Disease 101 they are warned that some respiratory illness of unknown origin will one day arrive and wipe out half of society. And everything about COVID19 initially made it appear as if this was it. Coupled with that China initially hid data, and downplayed important aspects, led everyone to believe it was far more serious than it was. And it is serious, I am by no means saying we should take zero action. It is absolutely deadly to certain population groups.

But, and this is a big but, it is not nearly as dangerous as initially believed. We have given way to mass hysteria on a level I don't think seen since H.G. Wells War of the Worlds was read live on the radio. I have the increasing suspicion that a lot of the policy makers know they over reacted, and are scared to admit to that. But it is time to reverse course far faster than we are, and see if we can undo some of this economic damage before it really takes root.

And to anyone comparing this to the Spanish flu. Here are a few facts to help put things in perspective:

Average life span in the United States in 1917 was about 50 years.
Insulin was invented in 1921
Chemotherapy in the 40's, as in 1918 radiation was not really understood.
Heart Stints were invented in 1986
Beta Blockers in the 60's
Infant mortality in the early 20th century was around 16%

In short, the Spanish flu killed healthy young people. Today, COVID 19 primarily kills people that wouldn't have even been alive in 1918 to begin with. This is not the Spanish flu. The second wave of the Spanish flu, would literally kill people within hours of the onset of symptoms. Comparing the two, would be similar to trying to compare flights plans for a bi-plane and a 777. Sure they are airplanes by definition, but otherwise, it isn't really comparable.

The flu itself is obviously different, the need to react and change behaviours until there’s a vaccine is there. How the world reacts to a pandemic has been shaped by the various ones over the past. The Asian flu pandemic of 1957 has similar numbers so far but ended up killing between 1-4 million people before a vaccine was available to control it. There is no way to know for sure if the measures went too far, maybe wait and see what the end result is for Brazil.
One thing for sure, if they did nothing and millions die, they would be crucified for under reacting. Do you know or can you say for certain what the second wave will look like? I’m going to say without doubt, nobody does!


“The 1918 flu was first observed in Europe, the United States and parts of Asia before swiftly spreading around the world. At the time, there were no effective drugs or vaccines to treat this killer flu strain. Citizens were ordered to wear masks, schools, theaters and businesses were shuttered and bodies piled up in makeshift morgues before the virus ended its deadly global march.“
“A flu pandemic, such as the one in 1918, occurs when an especially virulent new influenza strain for which there’s little or no immunity appears and spreads quickly from person to person around the globe.“
“The first wave of the 1918 pandemic occurred in the spring and was generally mild. The sick, who experienced such typical flu symptoms as chills, fever and fatigue, usually recovered after several days, and the number of reported deaths was low.

However, a second, highly contagious wave of influenza appeared with a vengeance in the fall of that same year. Victims died within hours or days of developing symptoms, their skin turning blue and their lungs filling with fluid that caused them to suffocate. In just one year, 1918, the average life expectancy in America plummeted by a dozen years.”

Philadelphia’s response was too little, too late. Dr. Wilmer Krusen, director of Public Health and Charities for the city, insisted mounting fatalities were not the “Spanish flu,” but rather just the normal flu. So on September 28, the city went forward with a Liberty Loan parade attended by tens of thousands of Philadelphians, spreading the disease like wildfire. In just 10 days, over 1,000 Philadelphians were dead, with another 200,000 sick. Only then did the city close saloons and theaters. By March 1919, over 15,000 citizens of Philadelphia had lost their lives.

[2R]

Interesting article, he speaks like a true academic , if you are fluent in academia ,what he said is as clear as the funding withdrawal for the lab his organization built .


POLITICO


NIH director: ‘No way of knowing’ if coronavirus escaped from Wuhan lab
"Nature created this virus, and has proven once again to be the most effective bioterrorist."

Francis Collins
National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

By ZACHARY BRENNAN

05/27/2020 06:54 PM EDT


National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins said the coronavirus is “absolutely not" manmade but he could not rule out the idea that it escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China, where the first known cases emerged.

“Whether [the coronavirus] could have been in some way isolated and studied in this laboratory in Wuhan, we have no way of knowing,” he told POLITICO on Wednesday.

What is clear, he said, is that "Nature created this virus, and has proven once again to be the most effective bioterrorist."

President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have repeatedly suggested that the virus might have somehow emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology — claims that the center’s director has called “pure fabrication.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence confirmed late last month that the government is investigating the pandemic’s origin, but said that there is no reason to believe the coronavirus was manmade or genetically modified.

Collins refused to comment on his agency’s recent — and controversial — decision to pull funding from researchers studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people. In late April the NIH told the EcoHealth Alliance, whose collaborators included scientists at the Wuhan virology lab, that its project did not “align with the program goals and agency priorities.”

Prominent scientific societies and 77 Nobel laureates have asked the administration to investigate why the nonprofit group’s grant was terminated, alleging that the decision was made for political, rather than scientific, reasons. The NIH awards grants using a merit-based system in which researchers evaluate the work of their peers, and ending a grant early is unusual.


Collins, who had not previously commented publicly on the situation, told POLITICO that “the NIH cannot discuss individual grants.”


The agency chief, who is leading a public-private partnership called ACTIV to hunt for coronavirus vaccines and drugs, said that if “all goes perfectly,” a few million doses of vaccine could be available in October for high-risk groups — with doses available sometime next winter for the rest of the country.

Trump has repeatedly promised a vaccine by the end of the year, much faster than any has ever been developed for any condition.

If China develops a coronavirus vaccine before the U.S. does, Collins said he “seriously hopes” that any tensions between the countries “wouldn’t be a dominant factor” in determining whether the U.S. would have access to a Chinese-manufactured shot.


© 2020 POLITICO LLC

[RippleRock]

I'm glad rational thought, though late, is coming from one of our Canadian leaders.

National Post, May 28th 2020.

In a legislature debate on the pandemic Wednesday, Premier Jason Kenney stressed that the disease has a low mortality rate among young people, and a high rate for those over 80.
“The average age of death from COVID in Alberta is 83, and I’ll remind the house that the average life expectancy in the province is 82,” he said.
I’m not sure what to make of that, but it suggests that if you make it to 83 before dying of COVID-19 you’ve already beaten the odds, so, congratulations.

Kenney went on about the age split:
“In Canada, 95 per cent of fatalities from COVID are from those over the age of 60, 80 per cent are in care facilities, and the risk of death from COVID for people under 65 is 0.006 per cent.
“What we are learning is that younger people, although not completely immune, have a rate of mortality related to COVID that is no higher than their general mortality rate from other illnesses.
“For most Albertans, the risk of death from other pathogens, accidents and traffic fatalities is actually higher than it is for COVID.”
All this is true, if cold-blooded. The general outline of COVID-19’s impact on age groups is well known.
The question is why Kenney described the age split so vividly in the only legislature debate on the pandemic since April 1.
And here’s why.
Kenney said: “We cannot continue indefinitely to impair the social and economic as well as the mental health and physiological health of the broader population for potentially a year for an influenza that does not generally threaten life apart from the most elderly, the immunocompromised and those with co-morbidities.”
He added that while there will be more outbreaks, hospitalizations and deaths, “I challenge our public health experts and our officials to ensure that our policy response is predicated on protecting the most vulnerable in the strongest and most discrete ways possible.”
Rather surprisingly, that doesn’t appear to include homeless people, despite early fears that they would be devastated.
“One thing I think we’re learning epidemiologically is that that population has a very high level of immune resistance, of immunity, and resilience against an influenza of this nature,” Kenney said.
Here’s the crux — the whole point the premier had been leading up to.
“Perhaps the most important strategy as we move forward is building a wall of defence around the most vulnerable, seniors in particular.”


Finally. Hopefully some of his sensibility rubs off on the general public instead of continuing this Liberal driven hysteria.

[Rockie]

Maybe Kenney is as clueless as other people in thinking there’s been no effort to protect the elderly up to this point. What do you think Ripplerock, the government hasn’t figured out the elderly are more vulnerable before today? Jeez, if only we’d listened to Ripplerock...

When you come up with a workable means of completely isolating the vulnerable let everyone know. You’ll be the first.

[tailgunner]

Rockie,
You just admitted that isolating the vulnerable and elderly has never been done and is impossible. How can you possibly think that isolating the entire population is any more effective?
Cheers

[Rockie]

Rockie,
You just admitted that isolating the vulnerable and elderly has never been done and is impossible. How can you possibly think that isolating the entire population is any more effective?
Cheers

When did I say it was completely effective? Isolating slows and limits which the last couple of months have proven, but you cannot completely isolate which also has been proven. Next you’ll mention isolating forever which is a common lie told by some. No one wants to isolate forever, no one thinks it’s possible, and no one has said it except a few who don’t exactly listen to a wide source of news.

['97 Tercel]

[ALPApolicy]

I'm glad rational thought, though late, is coming from one of our Canadian leaders.

National Post, May 28th 2020.

In a legislature debate on the pandemic Wednesday, Premier Jason Kenney stressed that the disease has a low mortality rate among young people, and a high rate for those over 80.
“The average age of death from COVID in Alberta is 83, and I’ll remind the house that the average life expectancy in the province is 82,” he said.
I’m not sure what to make of that, but it suggests that if you make it to 83 before dying of COVID-19 you’ve already beaten the odds, so, congratulations.

Kenney went on about the age split:
“In Canada, 95 per cent of fatalities from COVID are from those over the age of 60, 80 per cent are in care facilities, and the risk of death from COVID for people under 65 is 0.006 per cent.
“What we are learning is that younger people, although not completely immune, have a rate of mortality related to COVID that is no higher than their general mortality rate from other illnesses.
“For most Albertans, the risk of death from other pathogens, accidents and traffic fatalities is actually higher than it is for COVID.”
All this is true, if cold-blooded. The general outline of COVID-19’s impact on age groups is well known.
The question is why Kenney described the age split so vividly in the only legislature debate on the pandemic since April 1.
And here’s why.
Kenney said: “We cannot continue indefinitely to impair the social and economic as well as the mental health and physiological health of the broader population for potentially a year for an influenza that does not generally threaten life apart from the most elderly, the immunocompromised and those with co-morbidities.”
He added that while there will be more outbreaks, hospitalizations and deaths, “I challenge our public health experts and our officials to ensure that our policy response is predicated on protecting the most vulnerable in the strongest and most discrete ways possible.”
Rather surprisingly, that doesn’t appear to include homeless people, despite early fears that they would be devastated.
“One thing I think we’re learning epidemiologically is that that population has a very high level of immune resistance, of immunity, and resilience against an influenza of this nature,” Kenney said.
Here’s the crux — the whole point the premier had been leading up to.
“Perhaps the most important strategy as we move forward is building a wall of defence around the most vulnerable, seniors in particular.”


Finally. Hopefully some of his sensibility rubs off on the general public instead of continuing this Liberal driven hysteria.

Finally indeed.

Thanks for posting RR. I hadn’t seen this yet.

[mixturerich]

If some of you think you have the solution, then the real trick is isolating the vulnerable throughout the entire pandemic and convincing the less vulnerable that’s it’s safe to walk around.

“Don’t get within 6 feet of anyone older in your life and if you do, don’t sneeze, and be prepared to catch COVID-19 at some point”

Easier said than done, and you’d also be counting on people to actually comply.

[Rockie]

I'm glad rational thought, though late, is coming from one of our Canadian leaders.

National Post, May 28th 2020.

Here’s the crux — the whole point the premier had been leading up to.
“Perhaps the most important strategy as we move forward is building a wall of defence around the most vulnerable, seniors in particular.”


Finally. Hopefully some of his sensibility rubs off on the general public instead of continuing this Liberal driven hysteria.

As usual the devil is in the details. Let us know when you guys have an actual, workable plan instead of some delusional pipe dream.

[rudder]

Hong Kong - 4 deaths

South Korea - 269 deaths

USA - 102000 deaths


Would one of the virus ‘experts’ care to explain?

If you can explain it, perhaps then we can return to normal.

[RippleRock]

There are NO experts on this forum Rudder, FYI. Your asking the wrong people the question.

I'd hazard to guess there are few experts on -any- topic from what I've read, though your posts are more worth reading than most.

I'm not remotely surprised that few media outlets are reporting Kenny's address to legislature. It doesn't fit their "fear model" and indefinite lockdown agenda. You certainly won't find it on any CBC related material.

I'm just the messenger boys, dislike the message, not the sender. I'm just happy that Jason Kenny has far more "policy pull" than guys in Rockies camp. Just wished I lived in Alberta, the insanity out here is getting out of control, and will likely remain that way.

[pelmet]

Why do you have to go to a restaurant? Or the yacht club? Or the golf club? Why can’t we quarantine you and let the less vulnerable lead their lives as you were allowed to do so?

Because me and many millions more are full up members of this society as well and it's not unreasonable for you to wear a goddamn mask and stand a bit apart from me, as I am willing to do for you.

This is the kind of "@#$! you" attitude that thankfully only a minority of people have developed in the last 20 years. If you think I'm difficult and harsh to deal with wait until the other 60% of the population also reaches their limit and jams that "@#$! you" attitude right back down your throat.

Too bad. Write your MP and MPP and demand that people of Rockie's age be quarantined while we get on with life. If they want to come out at their own risk, so be it. Uber eats allows restaurant food. There is probably a yacht channel on TV along with golf and....there is AvCanada.

[pelmet]

I'm glad rational thought, though late, is coming from one of our Canadian leaders.

National Post, May 28th 2020.

Here’s the crux — the whole point the premier had been leading up to.
“Perhaps the most important strategy as we move forward is building a wall of defence around the most vulnerable, seniors in particular.”


Finally. Hopefully some of his sensibility rubs off on the general public instead of continuing this Liberal driven hysteria.

As usual the devil is in the details. Let us know when you guys have an actual, workable plan instead of some delusional pipe dream.

Exactly what I have been saying all along, with credible examples on other threads. Lock em up secure. No one in or out for two weeks as employees(except for emergencies - and only after a spray down). Separate rooms with locks. As more and more people become immune, they are the ones who are preferred workers. Plus quarantine for all older folks...unless they decide they are willing to risk it.

[Rockie]

Do you also have a one paragraph plan for solving world hunger? Poverty? Colonizing Mars?

With you in charge Operation Overlord could have been written on the back of a napkin.

[YYZSaabGuy]

I'm not remotely surprised that few media outlets are reporting Kenny's address to legislature. It doesn't fit their "fear model" and indefinite lockdown agenda. You certainly won't find it on any CBC related material.

Ahem: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton ... -1.5588090

[ayseven]

It is about RISK, and the ability of hospitals to cope in a huge outbreak. I, personally am not comfortable risking this; I like my elderly in-laws, and am not that young myself, AND am very close to someone who takes immunosuppressant meds. She can't get it. Period. So I don't really like seeing people ignoring the recommendations because THEY feel invulnerable. That is just what a lot of young people do, I hate to say. Immortality stopped for me at around 30... YMMV. I miss seeing friends, doing things together, etc., but that is just the way it is for now. Patience is required. We will all be complaining about how much we have to work soon enough.