Transat AT seeking additional government funding after reporting $114.3M Q1 loss

[Hangry]

Oh good, this again. Very classy to post trashing a companies' pilots in their own sub-forum. Especially ones that are facing possible unemployment.
Man, I cringe when I think of the thousands of people that come across this entirely public site curious about all aspects of aviation, and what they must think once they start reading.

I wouldn’t worry about it. Most pilots don’t come on this website. Let alone the “general public”.

[Sharklasers]

Oh good, this again. Very classy to post trashing a companies' pilots in their own sub-forum. Especially ones that are facing possible unemployment.
Man, I cringe when I think of the thousands of people that come across this entirely public site curious about all aspects of aviation, and what they must think once they start reading.

If a single Transat pilot permanently loses their job I will eat my hat.

I would never trash Transat pilots as a whole either. I’d be happy to fly with you Dan, I think your doing gods work with the whole visa push.

[JoeyBarton]

Does anybody have the new TS payscales?

[TFTMB heavy]

Does anybody have the new TS payscales?

The one Capt Keith posted in his video is up to date.

[redbusdriver]

I support the Transat bailout in whatever form it takes and I’ll ink the cheque for my taxpayer portion of that bill with a smile on my face if it serves to keep Transat pilots like TFTMB and FL320 off my list.

Amen

let them go under, still won't have to worry about them coming here

[Sharklasers]

I support the Transat bailout in whatever form it takes and I’ll ink the cheque for my taxpayer portion of that bill with a smile on my face if it serves to keep Transat pilots like TFTMB and FL320 off my list.

Amen

let them go under, still won't have to worry about them coming here

Lame.
We shouldn’t wish that on others. There were a couple bad Transat pilots gloating and insulting and gaslighting during the SLI talk but they have been almost completely silent since the merger was iced last April. Since then it’s almost exclusively AC pilots being shitty like we won something but in reality we just got really lucky. On the whole Transat pilots are just guys who go to work to put food on their families tables just like us.


Transat’s survival is very good for AC pilots for several reasons as well;

They have demonstrated an ability to make contract gains, the dream would to one day have 3 ‘mainline’ airlines of comparable WAWCON to bench mark off each other in negots and arbitration like the yanks do. Right now ACPA has to try to part the seas themselves without the ability to strike and unable to convince an arbitrator to use foreign comparables and we have seen the result time after time.

600 1%er Quebec jobs will not be allowed to vanish, will not be kicked to the curb, they will end up on someone’s list somewhere.

A reasonably functional Transat occupying 25% of the VFR market is probably better for AC than them folding up- Westjet and AC sitting ontop of 100% of that market and the government being compelled to do something silly like allowing full open sky’s where the US carriers can come in and pick off just our most profitable routes.

[TFTMB heavy]

I support the Transat bailout in whatever form it takes and I’ll ink the cheque for my taxpayer portion of that bill with a smile on my face if it serves to keep Transat pilots like TFTMB and FL320 off my list.

Amen

let them go under, still won't have to worry about them coming here

Classy!

[Latitude]

Amen

let them go under, still won't have to worry about them coming here

Classy!

That guy is an idiot. He's saying the same crap on WS acquisition of SW. A troll.

[TFTMB heavy]

let them go under, still won't have to worry about them coming here

Classy!

That guy is an idiot. He's saying the same crap on WS acquisition of SW. A troll.

Funny you say that. If you look at his past posts he/she doesn't look like a troll, more like an idiot.

[redbusdriver]

to say i am a troll or idiot because you don't share my view is like calling everyone a nazi that you don't like. fact is, i remember the gloat and disgusting things that transat pilots said a couple years ago. further, imo, any company buying out another, should have those being bought subjected to botl. your jobs are being saved, be grateful.

[DanWEC]

Oh good, this again. Very classy to post trashing a companies' pilots in their own sub-forum. Especially ones that are facing possible unemployment.
Man, I cringe when I think of the thousands of people that come across this entirely public site curious about all aspects of aviation, and what they must think once they start reading.

If a single Transat pilot permanently loses their job I will eat my hat.

I would never trash Transat pilots as a whole either. I’d be happy to fly with you Dan, I think your doing gods work with the whole visa push.

All good. Thanks. I wish it was progressing better, but every month I get more suspicious of a handshake agreement to prevent movement. As for losing jobs... I hope not, but I'm not optimistic. I made an ill-timed move to TS myself just pre-pandemic. I swapped airlines for a lifestyle improvement. Absolutely amazing company and culture, but because of it I haven't worked in 2 years besides starting a construction business. Feels pretty bleak, and not a great spot to be in for a guy who already started a bit late as a second career. Might even be time to jump ship to one of the startups.

redbusdriver- You sound like you've been around too much lead paint.

[boeingboy]

SWG did a deal to keep the lights on.

That's a good one. Please don't try and throw us in the same category as TS.

[TFTMB heavy]

SWG did a deal to keep the lights on.

That's a good one. Please don't try and throw us in the same category as TS.

Wow, we're taking shots on all fronts.

[Localizer]

Kinda sums up pilots as a whole …

[Localizer]

I think it’s pathetic that as a country we put the stranglehold on all businesses .. mom and pop shops, not just airlines .. and now companies that were profitable or had big money in the bank are now treading water to survive. In the case of airlines, the government “saved the day” with loans that have back breaking interest rates attached .. oh and a piece of the action too! A Shylock would have been more favourable ..

[Torontomaplelaughs]

Oh good, this again. Very classy to post trashing a companies' pilots in their own sub-forum. Especially ones that are facing possible unemployment.
Man, I cringe when I think of the thousands of people that come across this entirely public site curious about all aspects of aviation, and what they must think once they start reading.

If a single Transat pilot permanently loses their job I will eat my hat.

I would never trash Transat pilots as a whole either. I’d be happy to fly with you Dan, I think your doing gods work with the whole visa push.

All good. Thanks. I wish it was progressing better, but every month I get more suspicious of a handshake agreement to prevent movement. As for losing jobs... I hope not, but I'm not optimistic. I made an ill-timed move to TS myself just pre-pandemic. I swapped airlines for a lifestyle improvement. Absolutely amazing company and culture, but because of it I haven't worked in 2 years besides starting a construction business. Feels pretty bleak, and not a great spot to be in for a guy who already started a bit late as a second career. Might even be time to jump ship to one of the startups.

redbusdriver- You sound like you've been around too much lead paint.

Dan...redbusdriver isn't well liked at AC either. He just prefers to float around in management feces and prop up their agenda. Its pretty pathetic.

Sorry your subject to such rhetoric.

[rudder]

SWG did a deal to keep the lights on.

That's a good one. Please don't try and throw us in the same category as TS.

Hunter/TUI did the deal they had to do.

Projected cash flows for the next 24 months may not have met obligations and substituted debt for the the expensive government debt likely was not available. Like it or not, the balance sheet was turned upside down by COVID.

Hunter got to keep the hotels. That was the value.

[rudder]

I am amazed that some posters are expressing the sentiment akin to TRZ being the ‘Air Canada’ of La Belle Province. In other words - too big to fail.

TRZ is not too big to fail. Neither was AC. TRZ has yet to go through the CCAA car wash. AC already did.

TRZ will likely not disappear, but it could look different. Smaller corporation. Less assets. New owners (the unsecured creditors). Existing shareholders wiped out.

Arrogance and the aura of invincibility (entitlement?) almost caused the liquidation of AC. Reality will always shatter that illusion.

TRZ needs to clean up the balance sheet with cash flows unlikely to meet obligations. Not certain that an equity infusion is coming unless current shareholders are willing to be diluted to a fraction of their current standing.

A pre-packaged CCAA filing with an equity sponsor and revised business plan in place may be best outcome. The new CEO is already admitting serious near term cash flow deficiencies. With an expansion plan that includes even more head-to-head competition with existing players, medium term cash flow may also become problematic, particularly as debt obligations come due (or become more expensive per the terms of the LEEFF). Substitute debt facilities on reasonable terms from private lenders may be problematic if liquidity is an issue.

TRZ is a good company. But even good companies sometimes need to restructure. Protecting shareholders is not a governmental responsibility.

[TFTMB heavy]

I am amazed that some posters are expressing the sentiment akin to TRZ being the ‘Air Canada’ of La Belle Province. In other words - too big to fail.

TRZ is not too big to fail. Neither was AC. TRZ has yet to go through the CCAA car wash. AC already did.

TRZ will likely not disappear, but it could look different. Smaller corporation. Less assets. New owners (the unsecured creditors). Existing shareholders wiped out.

Arrogance and the aura of invincibility (entitlement?) almost caused the liquidation of AC. Reality will always shatter that illusion.

TRZ needs to clean up the balance sheet with cash flows unlikely to meet obligations. Not certain that an equity infusion is coming unless current shareholders are willing to be diluted to a fraction of their current standing.

A pre-packaged CCAA filing with an equity sponsor and revised business plan in place may be best outcome. The new CEO is already admitting serious near term cash flow deficiencies. With an expansion plan that includes even more head-to-head competition with existing players, medium term cash flow may also become problematic, particularly as debt obligations come due (or become more expensive per the terms of the LEEFF). Substitute debt facilities on reasonable terms from private lenders may be problematic if liquidity is an issue.

TRZ is a good company. But even good companies sometimes need to restructure. Protecting shareholders is not a governmental responsibility.

We are certainly heading in the direction of a different operation under Annick. Everyday that passes without new cashflow brings us closer to that CCAA car wash as you say. They have managed to push back the interest rate increase by 20 months but even that is a drop in the near empty bucket. Will we avoid it and would it be that bad? Nobody knows as of yet but I am very hopeful that either way we will pull through either way.

[Sharklasers]

I am amazed that some posters are expressing the sentiment akin to TRZ being the ‘Air Canada’ of La Belle Province. In other words - too big to fail.

TRZ is not too big to fail. Neither was AC. TRZ has yet to go through the CCAA car wash. AC already did.

TRZ will likely not disappear, but it could look different. Smaller corporation. Less assets. New owners (the unsecured creditors). Existing shareholders wiped out.

Arrogance and the aura of invincibility (entitlement?) almost caused the liquidation of AC. Reality will always shatter that illusion.

TRZ needs to clean up the balance sheet with cash flows unlikely to meet obligations. Not certain that an equity infusion is coming unless current shareholders are willing to be diluted to a fraction of their current standing.

A pre-packaged CCAA filing with an equity sponsor and revised business plan in place may be best outcome. The new CEO is already admitting serious near term cash flow deficiencies. With an expansion plan that includes even more head-to-head competition with existing players, medium term cash flow may also become problematic, particularly as debt obligations come due (or become more expensive per the terms of the LEEFF). Substitute debt facilities on reasonable terms from private lenders may be problematic if liquidity is an issue.

TRZ is a good company. But even good companies sometimes need to restructure. Protecting shareholders is not a governmental responsibility.

Transat isn’t too big to fail, it’s too Quebec to fail. The premier of Quebec and the Prime Minister of Canada have both already publicly committed to backstopping Transat. That’s a fact. The market fully disagrees with your takes here, Transat is up 2% at market opening and is trading the same price it was in April 2019 and at nearly double its value in 2012. AC on the other hand is Trading at less than half of its May 2019 stock price. I think if the institutional investors believed there was a realistic possibility of a CCAA car wash they would be looking for the exit and the price would subsequently crash but they appear to be holding strong.

[rudder]

Transat isn’t too big to fail, it’s too Quebec to fail. The premier of Quebec and the Prime Minister of Canada have both already publicly committed to backstopping Transat. That’s a fact. The market fully disagrees with your takes here, Transat is up 2% at market opening and is trading the same price it was in April 2019 and at nearly double its value in 2012.

That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.

TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.

So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.

I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.

[Sharklasers]

Transat isn’t too big to fail, it’s too Quebec to fail. The premier of Quebec and the Prime Minister of Canada have both already publicly committed to backstopping Transat. That’s a fact. The market fully disagrees with your takes here, Transat is up 2% at market opening and is trading the same price it was in April 2019 and at nearly double its value in 2012.

That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.

TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.

So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.

I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.

Again, the institutional investors who hold large chunks of Transat don’t make decisions based on denial, alternate realities and hope. Everything your saying is correct but you aren’t accounting for one crucial piece of the equation, the game changer.

The MP for Papineau.

[DanWEC]

I'm honestly not sure if that's an asset or a liability. Trudeau has already shown to be unfriendly to any industry that produces carbon, and the bailout precedent set by BBD would subject any government propping of a QC based company to a very high level of public and political scrutiny. Both are existing liabilities.

Some major event has to happen though, no matter what.

[elite]

That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.

TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.

So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.

I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.

Your assessments seem fairly accurate. Here are some additional thoughts for those that can entertain it.

By all accounts, Transat is the last remaining of the original charter airlines, Royal, Skyservice, Canada 3000, all of which have gone bankrupt. Transat too narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2001 due to sudden collapse of Canada 3000 and the Quebec factor as said. It wasn’t that it was run or managed better than the others, in fact Canada 3000 and Skyservice were much better run.

Due to this long life and the factors you mentioned above, Transat has priced itself out of the market in which it operates and its survival will depend on its acceptance of that fact and working to correct its revenue stream creatively or modify their expectations or a combination. Merging with a legacy carrier to potentially access its higher revenue structure would have been one way. CCAA will likely provide another avenue, but so too will the willingness of its labour force, particularly skilled labour, to accept and acknowledge it in concrete ways.

One such concrete way was the approach of American Airlines’ labour unions to U.S Airways prior to their merger when they made clear their expectations and aspirations which in fact were aligned with U.S Airways’ and facilitated the merger. Some of the ways Transat pilots for instance can do that, is to have an open discussion amongst themselves about what they are willing to accept and then approach potential buyers’ union ahead of a deal to make that known. If the glaring alternative is bankruptcy, would they be willing to merge BOTL with position freeze, or 1 to x for YOS? There are many creative ways to get actively involved in their own destiny by being realistic. Whatever the case, Transat’s challenges are deeper to be solved, or even delayed, by a politician, a very arrogant and unpopular one at that!

[pelmet]

That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.

TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.

So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.

I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.

Your assessments seem fairly accurate. Here are some additional thoughts for those that can entertain it.

By all accounts, Transat is the last remaining of the original charter airlines, Royal, Skyservice, Canada 3000, all of which have gone bankrupt. Transat too narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2001 due to sudden collapse of Canada 3000 and the Quebec factor as said. It wasn’t that it was run or managed better than the others, in fact Canada 3000 and Skyservice were much better run.

Due to this long life and the factors you mentioned above, Transat has priced itself out of the market in which it operates and its survival will depend on its acceptance of that fact and working to correct its revenue stream creatively or modify their expectations or a combination. Merging with a legacy carrier to potentially access its higher revenue structure would have been one way. CCAA will likely provide another avenue, but so too will the willingness of its labour force, particularly skilled labour, to accept and acknowledge it in concrete ways.

One such concrete way was the approach of American Airlines’ labour unions to U.S Airways prior to their merger when they made clear their expectations and aspirations which in fact were aligned with U.S Airways’ and facilitated the merger. Some of the ways Transat pilots for instance can do that, is to have an open discussion amongst themselves about what they are willing to accept and then approach potential buyers’ union ahead of a deal to make that known. If the glaring alternative is bankruptcy, would they be willing to merge BOTL with position freeze, or 1 to x for YOS? There are many creative ways to get actively involved in their own destiny by being realistic. Whatever the case, Transat’s challenges are deeper to be solved, or even delayed, by a politician, a very arrogant and unpopular one at that!

Thanks for the analysis.

It would be interesting to know more detail about pricing itself out of the market.

I think that the employees are probably feel(perhaps with good reason) that bankruptcy is not a likely alternative with the potential of governments willing to swoop in and help somehow. The alternative could be stagnation or an amount od slow downsizing through slow retirements. That is a situation where senior people are quite happy to maintain what they believe they have fought for(and perhaps want more). While there could be junior guys willing to have changes that would result in more opportunity, getting close to a majority can be difficult and the negotiating positions can be held by entrenched individuals.

It seems like AT might have some good benefits with their deal with WJ. One would think they will be around for a while even if they are more of a stable legacy operation than a rapidly expanding operation. Then again, who knows if some war in the middle east breaks out and fuel prices skyrocket.