Not an accident— this time.

[rookiepilot]

Hey rookie! What you think about this guy?
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight ... /KBRO/MMUN

Hmmmm.

Water is warmer,
Nicer airplane,
Possible tailwind?

[‘Bob’]

Obvious gang activity. They even tagged the sky with their gang sign. Fear the 26%'ers!!!
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight ... /CYTZ/CYQA

Sounds like the name of a house band that plays a dive bar in Northern Alberta.

[‘Bob’]

Is this a flight training aircraft?

A 20-second search leads you to the TC Registry, where you'll see that this is a privately registered aeroplane. Owner is an Ontario numbered corporation.

So, this time at least, no need to instructor or FTU bash. Just a private guy with questionable decision making - not the first, and certainly not the last.

Numbered company is key.

He’s a likely a successful businessman and thinks that his success was due to hard work and intelligence vs circumstances and dumb luck.

When that attitude is carried into aviation.. and especially with a mission to complete in order to save time or make money, it’s an extremely deadly combination. Aviation doesn’t care who you are.

I don’t think I have to digress into doctor killers or high profile aviation deaths of the rich and famous and even accidents involving the not so rich and famous where massive lapses in judgement and decision making were made.

One thing I do respect about rookie even though I roast him endlessly on here about other things is that he knows his limits, respects them, and points out what not to do.

The private flier with a do or die mission is IMHO general aviation’s worst risk. Far more dangerous than a student pilot in a 150 doing circuits or no-stakes VFR day cross countries.

[digits_]

Is this a flight training aircraft?

A 20-second search leads you to the TC Registry, where you'll see that this is a privately registered aeroplane. Owner is an Ontario numbered corporation.

So, this time at least, no need to instructor or FTU bash. Just a private guy with questionable decision making - not the first, and certainly not the last.

Numbered company is key.

He’s a likely a successful businessman and thinks that his success was due to hard work and intelligence vs circumstances and dumb luck.

When that attitude is carried into aviation.. and especially with a mission to complete in order to save time or make money, it’s an extremely deadly combination. Aviation doesn’t care who you are.

I don’t think I have to digress into doctor killers or high profile aviation deaths of the rich and famous and even accidents involving the not so rich and famous where massive lapses in judgement and decision making were made.

One thing I do respect about rookie even though I roast him endlessly on here about other things is that he knows his limits, respects them, and points out what not to do.

The private flier with a do or die mission is IMHO general aviation’s worst risk. Far more dangerous than a student pilot in a 150 doing circuits or no-stakes VFR day cross countries.

What in this flight increases the likelihood of a crash?

[pelmet]

Is this a flight training aircraft?

A 20-second search leads you to the TC Registry, where you'll see that this is a privately registered aeroplane. Owner is an Ontario numbered corporation.

So, this time at least, no need to instructor or FTU bash. Just a private guy with questionable decision making - not the first, and certainly not the last.

Numbered company is key.

He’s a likely a successful businessman and thinks that his success was due to hard work and intelligence vs circumstances and dumb luck.

When that attitude is carried into aviation.. and especially with a mission to complete in order to save time or make money, it’s an extremely deadly combination. Aviation doesn’t care who you are.

I don’t think I have to digress into doctor killers or high profile aviation deaths of the rich and famous and even accidents involving the not so rich and famous where massive lapses in judgement and decision making were made.

Interesting point. There has been no shortage of the business guys that have damaged or destroyed airplanes while being unaware of their limitations. Then there are the true believers with someone always looking over their shoulder.

[rookiepilot]

Is this a flight training aircraft?

A 20-second search leads you to the TC Registry, where you'll see that this is a privately registered aeroplane. Owner is an Ontario numbered corporation.

So, this time at least, no need to instructor or FTU bash. Just a private guy with questionable decision making - not the first, and certainly not the last.

Numbered company is key.

He’s a likely a successful businessman and thinks that his success was due to hard work and intelligence vs circumstances and dumb luck.

When that attitude is carried into aviation.. and especially with a mission to complete in order to save time or make money, it’s an extremely deadly combination. Aviation doesn’t care who you are.

I don’t think I have to digress into doctor killers or high profile aviation deaths of the rich and famous and even accidents involving the not so rich and famous where massive lapses in judgement and decision making were made.

One thing I do respect about rookie even though I roast him endlessly on here about other things is that he knows his limits, respects them, and points out what not to do.

The private flier with a do or die mission is IMHO general aviation’s worst risk. Far more dangerous than a student pilot in a 150 doing circuits or no-stakes VFR day cross countries.

I have made my own share of mistakes and scared myself once or twice. Always had an out, thankfully.

Needless death, especially of young people, truly upsets me, which is why I start some threads, to generate attention and discussion.

There is absolutely no defensible need to cross this lake at low altitude in October.

[albertdesalvo]

There is absolutely no defensible need to cross this lake at low altitude in October

I don't have a lot of precious 172 time but I have thousands of hours on western Lake Ontario from May to November, and here is the reality:

Past Labour Day, boat traffic is minimal. There will be a few guys fishing near the mouths of rivers, especially the Credit & Niagara, but they will be close to shore and most of the boats will be small. Not many would brave going out into the middle on a rescue mission, if they even had enough fuel to do so.

There will also be some diehard sailing aficionados, there always are, and some of them may even be offshore. But sailboats aren't too maneuverable, nor are they speedy, and you won't get too many of them tacking into the wind to come and pluck you out.

The cops have marine units with capable boats at a few locations, and they are really your only hope.

Air resources would be coming from Trenton. The Electra (Aurora?) might be able to find you and orbit above, I've witnessed this several times, but they are obviously helpless to perform a rescue. It would take a SAR helicopter with a trained crew, which would also be coming from Trenton.

All this assumes a flat lake.

We don't get a lot of dead calm days on Lake Ontario. 2-3 foot waves are common in relatively smooth weather, and if there's any kind of blow from the west, they will soon become six footers with whitecaps and continue to grow. It doesn't take much.

On the track from Toronto to Niagara, the prevailing winds are offshore all the way. And if the wind shifts around a bit, you get chop, which isn't nice. If the wind is from the east (unusual) you get huge swells. These conditions are not great for SAR. A half hour boat ride becomes a three hour trip if you're lucky.

Now, lets assume you've managed to successfuly ditch your aeroplane. It's going to sink fast and disappear. Lake Ontario is 400 feet deep out in the middle. So you'll be in the water in life jackets waiting for someone to find you and pick you up.

The lake looks small on maps. You get out in the middle in a boat and you become aware of how big it really is. You'll be able to see the shoreline in three directions. Small comfort. In October hypothermia and immobility isn't far away. Actually, in July and August it still lurks nearby.

You might as well say your prayers, my friend, because you're not going to see tomorrow.

[digits_]

Meanwhile a friend of mine is flying his C182 from North America to the Azores. To put things in perspective.

[albertdesalvo]

I don't like his chances if he goes in the drink on the way. He'll of course be much better equipped than the guy crossing Lake Ontario, but water is water no matter where you are, and the damn stuff ain't human friendly.

[tsgarp]

There is absolutely no defensible need to cross this lake at low altitude in October.

Here’s the thing; nobody needs to defend themselves to you, you just aren’t that important.

[Old fella]

Meanwhile a friend of mine is flying his C182 from North America to the Azores. To put things in perspective.

Ever hear of Louise Sacchi, she made 340 crossings delivering mostly single engine airplanes to various customers in Europe. Most if not all she transited out of Gander heading over, very interesting lady, I met her in Gander many moons ago, she wanted to see the ole tanker so we showed her the beast. Told her if she was around when a test flight came about, certainly welcome to come along, even said she would get pole time. Never happened unfortunately, she smoked like a tilt and cursed like the longshoremen.

[pelmet]

Meanwhile a friend of mine is flying his C182 from North America to the Azores. To put things in perspective.

Ever hear of Louise Sacchi, she made 340 crossings delivering mostly single engine airplanes to various customers in Europe. Most if not all she transited out of Gander heading over, very interesting lady, I met her in Gander many moons ago, she wanted to see the ole tanker so we showed her the beast. Told her if she was around when a test flight came about, certainly welcome to come along, even said she would get pole time. Never happened unfortunately, she smoked like a tilt and cursed like the longshoremen.

I have flown single engine across the Atlantic and back. It was under the tutelage of Margit Waltz(in a separate aircraft for one of the flights/in a TBM-700 on the other), a German-born American who now has over 1000 crossings. You can read about her on various on-line articles. She has loads of interesting stories.

[Old fella]

Meanwhile a friend of mine is flying his C182 from North America to the Azores. To put things in perspective.

Ever hear of Louise Sacchi, she made 340 crossings delivering mostly single engine airplanes to various customers in Europe. Most if not all she transited out of Gander heading over, very interesting lady, I met her in Gander many moons ago, she wanted to see the ole tanker so we showed her the beast. Told her if she was around when a test flight came about, certainly welcome to come along, even said she would get pole time. Never happened unfortunately, she smoked like a tilt and cursed like the longshoremen.

I have flown single engine across the Atlantic and back. It was under the tutelage of Margit Waltz(in a separate aircraft for one of the flights/in a TBM-700 on the other), a German-born American who now has over 1000 crossings. You can read about her on various on-line articles. She has loads of interesting stories.

Thanks, I certainly will. No doubt, interesting experiences to say the least.

[rookiepilot]

There is absolutely no defensible need to cross this lake at low altitude in October.

Here’s the thing; nobody needs to defend themselves to you, you just aren’t that important.

Ok —fair — but why do it over the middle of a cold , deserted October lake at a mandatory low altitude due to the class C — where an engine failure is a high probability of being a fatal accident, when 10-15 minutes longer keeps one in range of the shoreline?

[tsgarp]

There is absolutely no defensible need to cross this lake at low altitude in October.

Here’s the thing; nobody needs to defend themselves to you, you just aren’t that important.

Ok —fair — but why do it over the middle of a cold , deserted October lake at a mandatory low altitude due to the class C — where an engine failure is a high probability of being a fatal accident, when 10-15 minutes longer keeps one in range of the shoreline?

Not your circus, not your monkeys.

[albertdesalvo]

That's an ad hominem, his point is legitimate.

If that airplane has to ditch, the occupants are dead. I mentioned that I have witnessed the SAR plane orbiting on several occasions; I've also been passed by the Toronto police marine unit boat going out to retrieve what they were orbiting.

In each case, it turned out to be a body, not a survivor.

[digits_]

That's an ad hominem, his point is legitimate.

If that airplane has to ditch, the occupants are dead. I mentioned that I have witnessed the SAR plane orbiting on several occasions; I've also been passed by the Toronto police marine unit boat going out to retrieve what they were orbiting.

In each case, it turned out to be a body, not a survivor.

Not necessarily true. Depends on the equipment. Survival suit and life raft will drastically increase your survival chances.

[rigpiggy]

Let's not be baiting a fight here, hm?

As always rookie you have something germane to add to the conversation!?

[rigpiggy]

Meanwhile a friend of mine is flying his C182 from North America to the Azores. To put things in perspective.

Once or twice a year the fuel in Goose and gander is quarantined until they can sample because someone didn't make it across

[albertdesalvo]

Survival suit and life raft will drastically increase your survival chances.

The thread is about a specific PA-28 that likes to cross Lake Ontario at low level beyond the reach of land. I don't think that Cherokee is so equipped. Having made the same trip in a boat many times, I stand by my statement... if their engine fails and they have to ditch, they're dead.

[digits_]

The thread is about a specific PA-28 that likes to cross Lake Ontario at low level beyond the reach of land. I don't think that Cherokee is so equipped

Ok. Why can't a PA28 be properly equipped? How about we stow the pitch forks until we know?

The pilot did not crash and did not do anything illegal.

Survival suit and life raft will drastically increase your survival chances.

. Having made the same trip in a boat many times, I stand by my statement... if their engine fails and they have to ditch, they're dead.

An older document with hobby level research, but ditching seems to be surprisingly survivable: https://www.nanaimoflyingclub.org/wp-co ... pedoed.pdf

[mmm...bacon]

I kinda get the sense that people here are arguing just for the sake of the argument. Assuming the engine quits, If you manage to land without flipping over, the door jamming, and If you get out safely with your lifejacket on, and If someone actually hears your mayday, and If there's a boat nearby, and If they find you after dark, then you'll have a heckofa story to tell. That's way to many 'ifs' lining up when there's a 15 minute detour that negates them.

[cdnavater]

I kinda get the sense that people here are arguing just for the sake of the argument. Assuming the engine quits, If you manage to land without flipping over, the door jamming, and If you get out safely with your lifejacket on, and If someone actually hears your mayday, and If there's a boat nearby, and If they find you after dark, then you'll have a heckofa story to tell. That's way to many 'ifs' lining up when there's a 15 minute detour that negates them.

That about sums up digits in a nutshell!
Also, a lot of ifs for sure and I’m seriously doubtful this particular Cherokee has a raft and wetsuit, meaning 15 minutes fuel is what the pilot has placed as a value of their life, it’s not worth the risk

[digits_]

I kinda get the sense that people here are arguing just for the sake of the argument. Assuming the engine quits, If you manage to land without flipping over, the door jamming, and If you get out safely with your lifejacket on, and If someone actually hears your mayday, and If there's a boat nearby, and If they find you after dark, then you'll have a heckofa story to tell. That's way to many 'ifs' lining up when there's a 15 minute detour that negates them.

That about sums up digits in a nutshell!
Also, a lot of ifs for sure and I’m seriously doubtful this particular Cherokee has a raft and wetsuit, meaning 15 minutes fuel is what the pilot has placed as a value of their life, it’s not worth the risk

Perhaps to you. Engine failures and plane crashes are rare.
If a wheel flies off your car or your steering wheel snaps at highway speeds, you'll likely be severely injured, and possibly hurt other peope. Yet we drive daily for silly things such as a coffee or to buy the latest fad. Possibly on snowy or icy roads. Is that worth the risk?

[cdnavater]

I kinda get the sense that people here are arguing just for the sake of the argument. Assuming the engine quits, If you manage to land without flipping over, the door jamming, and If you get out safely with your lifejacket on, and If someone actually hears your mayday, and If there's a boat nearby, and If they find you after dark, then you'll have a heckofa story to tell. That's way to many 'ifs' lining up when there's a 15 minute detour that negates them.

That about sums up digits in a nutshell!
Also, a lot of ifs for sure and I’m seriously doubtful this particular Cherokee has a raft and wetsuit, meaning 15 minutes fuel is what the pilot has placed as a value of their life, it’s not worth the risk

Perhaps to you. Engine failures and plane crashes are rare.
If a wheel flies off your car or your steering wheel snaps at highway speeds, you'll likely be severely injured, and possibly hurt other peope. Yet we drive daily for silly things such as a coffee or to buy the latest fad. Possibly on snowy or icy roads. Is that worth the risk?

Unless all the ifs are met, it’s almost certain death in that crossing scenario, in your highway scenario you have brakes and a shoulder to pull over, you also won’t be potentially floating in extremely cold water waiting for either death or the small chance they find you!
If this guy was prepared, let’s say he/she has a dry suit on and a raft, it doesn’t change the message, take the 15 minute detour