equipment bid
Moderators: lilfssister, North Shore, sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, I WAS Birddog
Re: equipment bid
I just read Montie's message from May 8th but it doesn't mention anywhere 18 aircraft leaving the fleet.
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Re: equipment bid
It's 3/4 of the way down where he talks about fuel, paragraph 13.
Re: equipment bid
I believe ,but I could be wrong,that those were already taken into consideration i.e the 340's some older 320's and some 767's.I think the only addition to that is the extra 4 767-200's.
That being said I sure hope I'm right about that!
That being said I sure hope I'm right about that!
Re: equipment bid
Bid 08-01 will be out today (May 13) at 1500 EDT.
"The South will boogie again."
Re: equipment bid
Discostu,
You seem to be in the know....how does it look?
You seem to be in the know....how does it look?
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Re: equipment bid
Just saw the update. Brian Murray had originally said the 13th at 1500.
Wonder if he was mistaken on saying today, or if it was delayed again.
Babybus, just repeating what is said on the ACPA forum.....
Wonder if he was mistaken on saying today, or if it was delayed again.
Babybus, just repeating what is said on the ACPA forum.....
"The South will boogie again."
Re: equipment bid
It's out,
Basically status quo,very little movement,ability to hire up to 28 pilots.
Basically the vast majority stays where they are today.
Basically status quo,very little movement,ability to hire up to 28 pilots.
Basically the vast majority stays where they are today.
Re: equipment bid
And in the game of musical chairs the music has finally stopped playing. Hiring at AC and WJ grinding to a halt and therefore less attrition from everybody else. Hopefully this will be the worst of it and the profession will not have to incur the typical furloughs as part of the economic cycle.
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Re: equipment bid
Between now and May 31st, 2009.groundtoflightdeck wrote:So does that mean 28 new hires in the next 6 months?
One of the influencing factors: Only 35 Active Pilots retiring by May 31st, 2009.
Re: equipment bid
Actually , hiring at WJ is going full steam ahead for the next 5 yrs. Confirmed orders up to a fleet of 118 aircraft. Most airline analysts suggest a good chance WJ will have B777 or similar within the next 10 yrs. As WJ 's capture of the N american market will mature when they grow to 118 or greater A/C, they will look to other markets which require longer range A/C.
Simple fact is AC cannot raise prices in the intl. market as it is CUT THROAT and they will instantly lose market share. The bulk of AC revenue comes from intl traffic. In addition, AC has a very large exposure to the US market and this market is weak.
WJ revenue is 100% domestic and they can raise prices. AC can as well but the bulk of revenue comes from intl.
They delay of fuel efficient 787 will be problematic for AC. As oil is likely to hover around $150-$200 a barrel and they must replace inefficient A/C in their fleet. Although Boeing has a large arsenal of ways to compensate AC for 1.5-2 yr late deliveries , so it may be a moot point.
If you want to order a 787 now , the first delivery is for 2016.

Simple fact is AC cannot raise prices in the intl. market as it is CUT THROAT and they will instantly lose market share. The bulk of AC revenue comes from intl traffic. In addition, AC has a very large exposure to the US market and this market is weak.
WJ revenue is 100% domestic and they can raise prices. AC can as well but the bulk of revenue comes from intl.
They delay of fuel efficient 787 will be problematic for AC. As oil is likely to hover around $150-$200 a barrel and they must replace inefficient A/C in their fleet. Although Boeing has a large arsenal of ways to compensate AC for 1.5-2 yr late deliveries , so it may be a moot point.
If you want to order a 787 now , the first delivery is for 2016.

Re: equipment bid
It's not 38 position available instead of 28 ? just curious !!!!
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Re: equipment bid
I think 28 is a typo. I see 38 as well007 wrote:It's not 38 position available instead of 28 ? just curious !!!!
Required pilots minus active pilots equals 38.
previous bid total minus required pilots equals -33.
The retirements only reflect 5 months of retirements. Jan 01.09 to May 31.09. Bid 07-02 took retirements up to and including Dec. 31.08.
I wouldn't read anything into the final outcome of this bid. It appears to have been put out to adjust the 777 up and the 340 down only. Probably because they needed to start moving people.
There is nothing in this bid that reflects the condition of the industry.
***As a result of changes in the aviation industry, the current fleet plan is under review and there may be a subsequent equipment bid in the near future.***
They haven't made up their mind yet. As Piggy pointed out WJ is once again in the enviable position of not being exposed to what AC is outside the domestic market.
Piggy. Why would WJ want to take itself outside of what has made it so successful. Of course we have a plethora of examples from the past of companies doing just that.
Re: equipment bid
If WJ can make money at it, they will get larger A/C-and possibly this could ultimately be their demise-if history is any measure. if they cant make money they will stay with only 737-quite likely as well. There is limits to how much WJ can grow domestically.
Once a codeshare is in place (a major reason for their large expansion over the next 5 yrs), and their domestic route structure is large enough , it may indeed support some intl routes. I doubt WJ will ever replace AC. However AC's domestic portion of canada has been shrinking steadily , and WJ is expected to continue to absorb market share in canada directly from AC and/or from traffic growth, either way, general opinion is WJ will soon have 50% of Canada domestic market. How well they do in the states is to be seen.
AC is very lucky for a strong canadian economy and strong dollar because they would be eaten alive much like the feast going on in the US rgt now. In the next few years there will be a buffet of pain for american carriers.
discount carriers like WJ expanded during the last recession (2002) while Ac restructured and lay people off. Legacy carriers generally do poorly in bad times while discounters expand.
Its like consumer discretionary stocks like starbucks which have tanked in the us because people wont buy expensive coffee during recession(so they say?)-they brew it at home -or go somewhere cheap.
This model does not apply in Canada because of the strong resource based economy-not yet anyways
Once a codeshare is in place (a major reason for their large expansion over the next 5 yrs), and their domestic route structure is large enough , it may indeed support some intl routes. I doubt WJ will ever replace AC. However AC's domestic portion of canada has been shrinking steadily , and WJ is expected to continue to absorb market share in canada directly from AC and/or from traffic growth, either way, general opinion is WJ will soon have 50% of Canada domestic market. How well they do in the states is to be seen.
AC is very lucky for a strong canadian economy and strong dollar because they would be eaten alive much like the feast going on in the US rgt now. In the next few years there will be a buffet of pain for american carriers.
discount carriers like WJ expanded during the last recession (2002) while Ac restructured and lay people off. Legacy carriers generally do poorly in bad times while discounters expand.
Its like consumer discretionary stocks like starbucks which have tanked in the us because people wont buy expensive coffee during recession(so they say?)-they brew it at home -or go somewhere cheap.
This model does not apply in Canada because of the strong resource based economy-not yet anyways
Re: equipment bid
Just trying to understand all this. So if it says reducing 10 pilots on an A/C and requiring 10 on a that same type of A/C does it just cancel itself out for anyone else getting in. If your reduced does that mean you get first grabs at what is open?
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Re: equipment bid
Priceless,
Just pay attention to the "actual" and "required" columns. They are the only ones that matter to you
Just pay attention to the "actual" and "required" columns. They are the only ones that matter to you
Re: equipment bid
AC soon-to-be FA's given new-hire training for July are being called and told that classes are cancelled. That should be a pretty good indication of where things are going near term at AC. Cannot expect that the WJ plan to add domestic capacity and increase domestic market share is going to make things any easier. Fuel surcharges are certainly not going to stimulate travel and grow the Canadian market for air travel. Something's got to give domestically.
Re: equipment bid
That may have been the case in 2002, but the dynamics now are very different. In 2002 oil wasn't over $120 a barrel and climbing. When oil prices are high, this is where the Low Cost Carriers usualy feel the crunch. All of a sudden the previously diluted fares of the LCCs dont look so hot (added fuel surcharges, fare increases etc..) and thier percieved value dwindles. This is where WJ and all LCCs will have to do a very careful balancing game in the not to distant future.piggy wrote:discount carriers like WJ expanded during the last recession (2002) while Ac restructured and lay people off. Legacy carriers generally do poorly in bad times while discounters expand.
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Re: equipment bid
Piggy,
Where are you getting this "general concensus" information. I have never heard anybody (other than some loud mouth pilots) say WJ will ever have larger A/C than the 737. The information that comes from WJ management seems quite to the contrary. Similarily, Air Canada recently held a company roadshow at which they described the domestic operation the strongest it has been in years and is indeed carrying the airline at the moment. Not the international operations which you spoke of.
One dollar and the "general concensus" of a group of pilots will get you a cup of coffee. Don't beleive everything you hear.
Where are you getting this "general concensus" information. I have never heard anybody (other than some loud mouth pilots) say WJ will ever have larger A/C than the 737. The information that comes from WJ management seems quite to the contrary. Similarily, Air Canada recently held a company roadshow at which they described the domestic operation the strongest it has been in years and is indeed carrying the airline at the moment. Not the international operations which you spoke of.
One dollar and the "general concensus" of a group of pilots will get you a cup of coffee. Don't beleive everything you hear.
One feathered,the other on fire!
Re: equipment bid
Sultan wrote:That may have been the case in 2002, but the dynamics now are very different. In 2002 oil wasn't over $120 a barrel and climbing. When oil prices are high, this is where the Low Cost Carriers usualy feel the crunch. All of a sudden the previously diluted fares of the LCCs dont look so hot (added fuel surcharges, fare increases etc..) and thier percieved value dwindles. This is where WJ and all LCCs will have to do a very careful balancing game in the not to distant future.piggy wrote:discount carriers like WJ expanded during the last recession (2002) while Ac restructured and lay people off. Legacy carriers generally do poorly in bad times while discounters expand.
These facts are true but remember everyone is paying the same price for fuel so therefore the viability of the airline comes down to other costs, variable costs that can be controlled. WJ costs are much lower than AC. Yes the ticket prices are the same across Canada-that is because the resouce based economy is very strong and this strong airline duopoly does not have to discount prices. This means WJ can absorb higher fuel easier than AC. Also Ac relies on intl revenue which as i said before is cutthroat. Yes WJ added a fuel charge-because they can-could they be profitable without it-probably. It is a challenging environment to say the least-much more so for us carriers because of recession and the fact that oil is priced in us$
Re: equipment bid
Now thats funny...I would never base anything i research on a bunch of pilots over coffee--maybe get some interesting stories.hahacirclingfor69 wrote:Piggy,
Where are you getting this "general concensus" information. I have never heard anybody (other than some loud mouth pilots) say WJ will ever have larger A/C than the 737. The information that comes from WJ management seems quite to the contrary. Similarily, Air Canada recently held a company roadshow at which they described the domestic operation the strongest it has been in years and is indeed carrying the airline at the moment. Not the international operations which you spoke of.
One dollar and the "general concensus" of a group of pilots will get you a cup of coffee. Don't beleive everything you hear.
I listen to 4 to 5 aviation analysts and they always have a strange way of being rgt eventually. Analysts often different somewhat in opinion but if you merge what they have to say -you get a good general idea of where things are going.
Analysts are forward thinking -as is the stock market. For example the average recession lasts around 8 months roughly, half way through the stock market has already peaked-because the market leads out of the recession (usually financials first). So when the comany does a roadshow to bolster emplyee moral and try pathatically to incr their stock price-it is for the now. Who cares? I want to know about the future and what the stock will be in 1 yr, 2yr. What happens if canada's economy slows over the next 2 yr in response to the usa...i would say AC revenue from domestic will not be as could.
Some analysts have a hold/sell on AC, a few have a buy--who knows
Re: equipment bid
LCCs are at risk when cost goes up, one of the reason is that they have a large customer base can barely afford flying in the first place and will not fly if cost goes up, Legacy carrier have a wealthier customer base that can bare the cost increase, I can see West Jet able to ride the storm especially because of the Alberta bubble allowing the normally low income worker to continue to spend even with price increases and a down turn in the States...
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Re: equipment bid
2 questions..
1. What analysts?
2. Why would a US economic slow down hit AC harder than WJ. AC is already established in the states and has the ability to shed 320's and excercise more EMJ options. This woudl have the effect of reducing capacity will maintaining frequesncy. Meanwhile WJ is trying to grow into the states during the biggest US slowdoen since the depression.
1. What analysts?
2. Why would a US economic slow down hit AC harder than WJ. AC is already established in the states and has the ability to shed 320's and excercise more EMJ options. This woudl have the effect of reducing capacity will maintaining frequesncy. Meanwhile WJ is trying to grow into the states during the biggest US slowdoen since the depression.
One feathered,the other on fire!