Continental Flt 3407 Crash at Buffalo/Niagra Intr'nal

[flyincanuck]

Sad and tragic event, and my thoughts go out to the family and friends of those affected.

I fail to see how how speculating is sad. Reasoning is a large part of what we do. I could see how you might be upset if posters were assigning blame already.

[ehbuddy]

First thing I thought of when I saw the radar transcript and plot plus listening to the live voice was this happened probably at or near G/S intercept or in an area where they would have started to get configured for landing. Flap selection with the autopilot on or off could have caused a rapid pitchdown if they had any large accumulation of ice on the horizontal stab. Reports have said the aircraft was in a dive prior to impact which would be consistant with this issue.

[Stinky]

Nobody is pointing fingers. It's a known cause of accidents and in this case early speculation isn't a bad thing, I gaurantee I'll be more vigilant next time I'm flying in on autopilot regardless of what the final verdict on this accident is and I'm sure others reading this will as well, so this type of speculation is educational and promotes safety.

[mark_]

Reporters on CNN this morning were talking about carb icing as a possible contributing factor...morons.

[flyinthebug]

When they are cleared for the ILS you can hear the stress in the voice of the female pilot when she reads back the clearance.

Radar imaging shows they flew through a nasty cell just a few minutes before they were cleared for the approach.

Amazing how two sets of ears can hear something completely different?.. To me, the female pilots voice sounds like she was "laughing" (maybe at an earlier joke by the other pilot?) not stressed at all from what I heard?. Am I the only one that hears her laughing as she reads back the clearance?. Either way, you seem to have it all figured out ehbuddy. Perhaps you should advise the NTSB.

My thoughts go out to the families of those lost in this horrific crash:/

Fly safe all!!

[station60]

Found a link to the last 5 minutes of ATC tape:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... cript.html

[Moose47]

G'day

The first posting on CTV's website called the aircraft a jet and then went on to say that it had 74 seats and carried 78 passengers. I just looked at the updated story and they have removed the above mentioned.

Cheers...Chris

[Tango Romeo]

Tail Icing ??? Sound like a tail stall during a change of flaps setting resulting in a lost of control no other faillure beside a wing comming off could explain losing control once established on the ILS in descent weather 5 miles back.

I was thinking the same thing, right where you'd be putting some extra workload on the autopilot by selecting flaps and intercepting localizer. If you're already iced up and the autopilot unexpectedly disengages it could be a problem.

Sorry to speculate, I know some people get annoyed with that.

True, but anyone flying in southern ont. the past few days knows that the icing in that area has been quite extensive.

lt'll be interesting to see the results of the investigation. But in the meantime my condolences go out to the families involved.

Tango Romeo-

[V1RotateV2]

probably at or near G/S intercept or in an area where they would have started to get configured for landing.

Radar imaging shows they flew through a nasty cell just a few minutes before they were cleared for the approach.

I stand by my previous comment: speculating without information is pointless.
You don't normally configure the Q400 5 miles out in the soup. You are in landing configuration riding the GS down.
There were no cells in the area. It was winter weather, just layers, some icing and wind.

There are a lot of people with knowledge and access to information that will investigate this. Just to name a few: NTSB, Continental, ALPA, Colgan, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, FAA, etc.....
They are trained to go into the scene with an open mind. Told to never assume or speculate, it will only bias the results. Maybe we should do the same.
Just my $0.02.

[Old fella]

Heartfelt sorrow and sincere condolences to the passenger/flight crew families during this very emotional/stressful time in their lives. One hopes (for the sake of both pilots) the rampant speculation and continuous media scrutiny that will take place over the next few days, compassion is shown – but again, highly unlikely. This is aviation!!

Like the rest of us on this site, it gotta be an eerie feeling to hear the voice of the female pilot during the final moments. One hopes her immediate family (parents) and husband/boyfriend/companion/kids (if any) can take comfort in hearing that voice for the last time if that is humanly possible.

[flyincanuck]

As a " trained " pilot, why is it not kosher to speculate?

If I need to call 911 because I suspect someone is having a heart attack, should I refrain from speculating to the operator because I'm not a doctor?

Stinky hit the nail on the head this time:

" Nobody is pointing fingers. It's a known cause of accidents and in this case early speculation isn't a bad thing, I gaurantee I'll be more vigilant next time I'm flying in on autopilot regardless of what the final verdict on this accident is and I'm sure others reading this will as well, so this type of speculation is educational and promotes safety. "

[Stinky]

You don't normally configure the Q400 5 miles out in the soup. You are in landing configuration riding the GS down.

The distance makes perfect sense though, if they selected flap 7 or 8 miles back they wouldn't instantly fall straight out of the sky.

[glorified bus driver]

My sincere condolences to all the families affected by this tradgedy. I believe that some people may not like the all the speculation. As a trained pilot you are going to speculate as you may have been in that situation before. This is not to hurt anyone or lay blame, it is just for education and to hopefully make yourself a better pilot.

[Donald]

Like the rest of us on this site, it gotta be an eerie feeling to hear the voice of the female pilot during the final moments. One hopes her immediate family (parents) and husband/boyfriend/companion/kids (if any) can take comfort in hearing that voice for the last time if that is humanly possible.

X2

[MrWings]

If you don't like speculation, then why visit a public forum where people can post their opinions?

If you just want the facts, there are many news sites that offer you their version of the facts through their uniformed filter.

That said, for some reason this story is hitting hard this morning. Maybe because it is coming so close after the high of the 1549 miracle. Or maybe because it is a situation that many of us face everyday in similar equipment.

Whatever, prayers to all affected.

[mcconnell14]

they have found the CVR...every report on CNN sounds like the plane lost lift on one of its wings and it dipped then went down.

heart goes out to all invovled

Will Charland from business and commericall magazine on CNN a few mins said he has "no doubt" this is a accidnet due to ice...he said contenental officals said other planes in the area were picking up ice aswell.

[magyar]

"Found a link to the last 5 minutes of ATC tape:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... cript.html


sheesh it's kinda f-uped how the so called "extract of the exchanges between the air traffic controllers, the pilot of flight 3407 and other pilots in the air over Buffalo" is not really an acuarate represenation of what is being said in the audio recording. e.g, "Flight 1998: Negative where I am" is really "neagtive we're IMC"...etc

[unregistered]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7888801.stm

[vortac]

There are a lot of people with knowledge and access to information that will investigate this. Just to name a few: NTSB, Continental, ALPA, Colgan, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, FAA, etc.....
They are trained to go into the scene with an open mind. Told to never assume or speculate, it will only bias the results. Maybe we should do the same.
Just my $0.02.

Errrrrrrrrrrr.... told never to speculate? Actually, it's kind of how they get to the bottom of it. Speculate, then rule out various theories. Slowly what happened begins to take shape. Without discussion, the pool of new ideas dries up quick. There is nothing wrong with us doing the same. In the end it helps us all to think about things such as icing effects during configurations changes etc. even IF it had NOTHING to do with the accident.

[mcconnell14]

some of the youtube posted videos are heart wrenching...i wont post any you can watch if you wish.

fox news relased a video of the first officers family. she had was only 25 and had 2000 hours.

members of the crew: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,492324,00.html

[Tim]

i think weve covered a lot of the speculation thing before. perhaps one sore spot for people is when the speculation turns towards the pilots (i.e. jazz in T-Bay). whether or not pilots were the cause, maybe we dont like to think about it as possibility until all else has been ruled out. not placing or absolving blame, just a theory.

reading another article this afternoon: eyewitness reports indicate the debris field seems to be quite isolated - neither homes on the sides were hit, nor were the power lines in front, the only damage to a close by tree was fire damage - which would suggest that the plane impacted in a near vertical descent if the eyewitness reports indeed are true. if thats the case a tailstall or spin would seem to be two viable possibilities.

[Stinky]

eyewitness reports indicate the debris field seems to be quite isolated - neither homes on the sides were hit, nor were the power lines in front, the only damage to a close by tree was fire damage - which would suggest that the plane impacted in a near vertical descent if the eyewitness reports indeed are true. if thats the case a tailstall or spin would seem to be two viable possibilities.

A lot of the eye and ear witness accounts mention surging engines and other abnormal engine sounds. This would also be consistent with a spin.
Apparently the plane struck the house heading in the opposite direction of the runway, again consistant with the spin theory.

[ourkid2000]

I'm not a pilot......i'm an AME-E who works on DH-8's for a living and i'm not going to speculate. My question is about the ATC tapes, though and how quick contact was lost.

The pilot is responding as normal to the controller and then literally 3 seconds later does not respond. Is it real time or have they cut out portions to save on time? If not, then this plane went from trouble-free to destroyed in less than 3 seconds. I don't really understand. Perhaps they were too busy to respond??

[MrWings]

Perhaps they were too busy to respond??

Yes, they most likely were.

Priorities: Aviate, navigate, communicate

[Highflyinpilot]

First of all, My condolences to all families involved, Cant imagine what theyr going thoruogh.


Second, I love how every thread on an accident goes, the accisdent is announced, someones talks about POSSIBLE causes, and someone returns by saying "lets not speculate blah blah blah"

This a forum open to comments, I dont see anything wrong with someone saying " this could have happened or that could have happened."

I think its good that a bunch of fellow aviators come on here and discusse possible causes as all these possible causes are something for others flying this type of aircraft to keep in the back of their head.


Anyways very sad about this situation, it's a risky bussiness, can happen to any of us at any time,let's be safeand let's not take it for granted.


Again My condolences to all involved, my thoughts and prayers are with all families involved.