Why Speculating on Crashes is a Good Thing

[trey kule]

There is a protocol to posting about accidents/incidents


First of all, you need to try and be the first to post and ask the question about what happened. It helps to do this before the dust settles so there will be no facts available to hinder speculation. Pictures help

Secondly, you must always offer condolences or wish for good luck as this indicates to all that read your post that you are a caring member of the aviaiton community and not the aeronautical equivalent of an ambulance chasing ghoul.

Thirdly , you have to state it is a learning experience. You dont have to state what that is...no one will dare ask for fear of being labelled an ignoramus who doesnt want to learn. You then are free to speculate. It also doesnt hurt to throw in a few safe, safeties or similar

Fourthly, you must remember that other than yourself, no one should ever be allowed to make a mistake without being publically vilified...And, even if there is no indication that there was human error, it does not hurt to "speculate" on it...hell, the pilot or crew are probably drowning their sorrows and your post wont make them feel worse...particularily if it is not true.

The truth is, these "breaking speculation posts" are really nothing more than the AvCanada equivalent of the gossip rags. M only complaint is that some people who are feeling bad enough as it is are subject to the speculation from a community where they should be getting support...and from posters who dont let the facts sway their minds. People make mistakes. Some of them stupid ones. But worse is when speculation lays stupidity at their feet and it was not their fault.

[fish4life]

best part about crash speculation is when pilots say "I had something similar happen to me and ______ was the cause" or sharing other experiences that everyone can learn from

[Finn47]

Trying to stop people speculating on the reasons why a crash happened is futile. You can´t possibly do it. All you can do is try bringing some reason into the discussion and if the uninformed do not get the message, move on.

[eeffoc]

Speculate too much without facts or knowledge and you, ASS U ME too much. You mostly make an ass out of yourself, but you probably don't care about that or the people affected by it because its just all sport to you.
I believe its ok to suggest possible scenarios in the speculation, but not ok to point fingers at any one person until all the facts are known.

[Gino Under]

To add some further thoughts on this....
as one who likes to speculate, I fully appreciate both sides of this argument. I understand how someone with limited experience could postulate any number of seemingly 'silly' speculative scenarios but I also appreciate how extensive experience and a number of type ratings (which may include an aircraft that recently suffered an incident or accident) makes the challenge of speculating easier and presents a higher probability of getting closer to what really happened adding credibility to whatever accident might be speculated about.

Learning from the mistakes of others isn't new and it has made the speculators job easier. Many accidents have numerous parallels and root causes. What looks like a CFIT accident (Islamabad, Pakistan earlier today?) may well pan out to be a CFIT accident. What might seem like a loss of control accident (Rhyadh, Saudi Arabia) may well turn out to be loss of control. Even though I might run the risk of being totally wrong, I don't mind accepting up front I have a reasonably high probability of being right and a fairly low probability of being totally out of the ballpark. I don't mind. I'm not asking you to take my theories to the bank.
I'm only speculating based on MY experience.

Gino Under

P.S. Having flown in and out of Islamabad numerous times, I am familiar enough with that area, the approaches and the terrain. So I don't mind speculating on this one. It doesn't make me an expert in some forums but in other forums, it certainly does. But that's a conversation for another day.