yycflyguy wrote:
I suspect there will be MORE hiring over the next 4 years then what I have seen with my first 4 years at AC. Retirements are peaking at around 120-140 a year for the next 5 years plus with the confirmed orders on the 787 (37 of them if I believe) I can see AC hiring 600-700 guys between 2010 and 2015.
No way. You presume that flying levels will remain status quo (or growth). It is clear that with the STAR/CO announcement that AC code will appear on many more routings that are not flown on AC metal. The B787's are 1:1 replacements for the B767's. And whether the EMB's remain at their current level, or at all, will largely depend on the decision that AC takes for the A320 fleet renewal.
Far too many variables to be reliably predicting hiring requirements based on Age 60 attrition only.
ACPA and CO have agreed to share flying between hubs which won't affect our flying on other U.S. routes. The C++ agreement encourages AC to use more of its metal on the Atlantic routes, and the 787 order is at 37 firm, but we only have 24 - 27 767 aircraft, so not totally 1 for 1.
Also, with AC looking at the possibility of more higher capacity aircraft (A330/777 rumours), then that obviously helps growth too, this would be especially interesting if Boeing come up with a new 777/enhanced 777.
Obviously the age 60 thing could delay or temper some hiring, but the retirements are inevitable at some point depending on the outcome, and if we keep finding more opportunities to utilize our fleet the flying will go up - but hopefully the hours will return to normal before we hire too many more people.
To the original question of Air Canada vs. WestJet, if flying for an airline is your goal, then while each airline has different pro's and con's, do we really have that much of a preference when it comes down to it? Would you hold out for Air Canada for 3 years and let an opportunity to go to WestJet pass you by? Or vice versa?
In the end it is a job and both are great in their own right, but after the sacrifices we all make in this industry (which is a whole other can of worms), shouldn't it just be about getting to the airlines (if that is your goal) and then starting to build your life and move forward without regrets?
For me personally, it was all about who called first and at times while I wonder what would have been if I had gone the other route, I am happy with my decision and am trying to focus on the other areas of life that are more important than work.
i hope for AC that there is more hiring than ever before, however i don't see that happening. I think there is a strong case for no hiring or layoffs-mitigated by retirements. This means if hired now at AC you will have a life of hell until things get moving again. When will that be in this environment??-i would say 2015 at earliest. However, if this recession double dips, or oil spikes with a massively devalued us $-very likely possibility, then all bets are off-I could see layoffs at AC. I think with the unemployment rate peaking next year, the consumer has been destroyed-less so in Canada-and will be as frugal as ever for as far as the eye can see. What will happen when stimulus money runs out next year and 70% of US GDP is consumer driven?? No expensive airline tickets i would think. On intl routes, transboarder, and even canadian domestic with higher unemployment in Canada. This means no yield, on all routes, so with costs going up(oil) and no yield, you either cut the route(even with high load factor) or vanish when you run out of cash. The airline with the lowest costs will gain market share gradually and survive. Its the same old story. The alberta -hawaii route AC is doing is simply a way to weaken WJ balance sheet so when AC do come out CCAA next time WJ will have less cash. Also it is full out war on yield right now. WJ will operate the HAwaii with reduced load factor to keep market share -probably gain market share, and probably break even with such a low cost. What will happen when AC is burning through cash with low yield, and the 767 to hawaii from yyc is half full with $130 oil??I would say just like the USA, the route will be dropped, a/c redeployed elsewhere, even the a/c parked to save cash
Someone from WS correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the "top 5 international carrier" thing keeps getting misinterpreted. I don't think they are talking top 5 in planes, destinations, passengers carried or whatever. I think they are talking margins and profitability.
rudder wrote:
No way. You presume that flying levels will remain status quo (or growth). It is clear that with the STAR/CO announcement that AC code will appear on many more routings that are not flown on AC metal. The B787's are 1:1 replacements for the B767's. And whether the EMB's remain at their current level, or at all, will largely depend on the decision that AC takes for the A320 fleet renewal.
Far too many variables to be reliably predicting hiring requirements based on Age 60 attrition only.
The plan was to start retiring B763s from the fleet once there were at least 15 B787s delivered. Not sure if that has changed or not.
IN AC's current cash depleted condition, there is almost zero tolerance for routes that burn cash rather than generate cash. Therefore, the ability to experiment with either growth or experimental city pairs will be significantly restricted in the near term, with the medium term dependant upon the economic recovery. Lowest risk/lowest cost addition of capacity comes via codeshare within exsiting STAR lift.
DanJ wrote:How much will the WS fleet actually grow when those 54 planes come online? Surely they will be parting with some planes by then? Didn't their first -700's come in 8 years ago already?
Good question. I have no idea, but I doubt we have any planes close to retirement, even in the next 8 years.
I just flew one that broke the 30,000 hr mark earlier this week. Which makes me wonder, wtf IS the lifespan on your average airliner?
Which makes me wonder, wtf IS the lifespan on your average airliner?
