I don't know where I'm gonna go when the volcano blows. . .

[Sheila]

They were hoping the Jetstream was going to move the Ash but the Jetstream can also push away the low pressure, causing there to be alot of high pressure and no strong winds. Perhaps that is what's causing the ash to stay, as well. We have clear blue sky here, no winds but not too many planes flying I think.

I heard one passenger in BC say, he was told no chance of flying home till the 22th!

[Flying Nutcracker]

Scandinavian Airlines giving out coloured slips of the layoff kind to 2500 employees on Monday, possibly 3500 more later on in the week, for a total of 6000. Pilots and groundstaff included. Swedish financial experts give some european operators 2-3 weeks before filing for bankruptcy.

It's like having a dark cloud hanging over you... oh wait... they all do kinda!!!

FN

[Sheila]

Where did you end up going, Panama Jack?!!

[Panama Jack]

Still stuck in London Heathrow, Sheila. Eurocontrol just gave a press conference a few minutes ago that they expect that 50% of European flights might be able to operate tomorrow. There is a lot of pressure from the airlines, as you can imagine. The question seems to be that there will always be some level of volcanic ash in the atmosphere but how much is too much. Some ferry flights by KLM, Lufthansa and Air Berlin during the last couple of days have shown no damage to engines or systems. Meanwhile, according to IATA and what they call "conservative estimates," the industry is losing over $200 million per day.

Interestingly, according to the UK Met Office, Volcanic Ash is expected to reach the East Coast of Newfoundland (St. John's area) from Surface to FL200 by 0600Z tomorrow (April 19th) and be near Gander by 1200Z. Will be interesting to see how Transport Canada and the airlines deal with this.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/va ... 612174.png

[Hawkerflyer]

I was in Sweden when this sucker blew. They had closed all airspace west / south west of us. The only way to get back to Canada was to fly due south to Italy. We ended up doing this. For the oceanic portion of the flight, Euro-control would only take a flight plan the was filed south of 50 degrees. After many hours of working the phones with control we were finally released by Italy/France. I have to say that was the quietest oceanic crossing I'd ever done. There was no traffic. An hour after we departed Milan, all of norther Italy followed suit and closed.

[palebird]

These ferry flights are proving very little..the only thing being proven is that yes they can fly without flameouts and immediate damage to the airframe..what they will find, though, is that they will begin to have serious engine issues in the very near future that will, in the end, cost them a fortune. The only way to prove that is to tear an engine down and that is not going to happen tomorrow.. It is a high stakes gamble..if they don't fly a lot of carriers will go under..if they do fly well we will see..

[Siddley Hawker]

I think Joe should throw some seats into them DC-4's he's sitting on and have at her.

[Cleared Enroute]

Looks like this stuff may hit NL after all!

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/cbc- ... d=23935330

Flights scrapped as Iceland ash heads to N.L.

Volcanic ash from Iceland is heading for Newfoundland, prompting several airlines to cancel flights to and from St. John's late Sunday.

Transport Canada and NAV Canada have informed the St. John's International Airport that there is about a 30 per cent chance the ash will hit St. John's airspace, an airport spokeswoman said.

Since Thursday, millions of passengers have had plans foiled or delayed because of a ban on air travel that has gradually expanded over large swaths of Europe as the ash cloud from a volcano in Iceland continued to spread and move across the continent.

Air Canada, WestJet and Porter Airlines have cancelled flights as a precaution on Sunday evening until 9 a.m. local time Monday, airport spokeswoman Marie Manning said. At least 13 flights, including one from Continental Airlines, have been cancelled, according to the St. John's International Airport Authority's website.

Neither Transport Canada nor Nav Canada have issued an order to shut the airspace, so each airline will have to assess whether or not to resume operations after 9 a.m., she said.

Air Canada spokeswoman Angela Man said the airline has also cancelled Monday morning flights to and from Gander and Deer Lake.

She advised passengers to check the airline's website for the most up-to-date information.

The Juno Awards were held in St. John's on Sunday evening, and some musicians were worried they would have trouble getting back to the mainland.

Triple winner Michael Bublé told The Canadian Press that he had to cut short his celebrations in the city because his pilot informed him that the ash cloud could hit the city by 3 a.m. and that it could be three days before anyone could leave.

[Panama Jack]

Time will indeed tell, palebird. I especially appreciate the Northern European airlines' concerns; cash is only flowing out of their operations at the moment. . . they are on limited time before they put the "Out of Business" signs up.

Since there will always be some level of contaminants in the atmosphere, the question is what an acceptable amount is, and what is not. This seems to be very controversial at the moment, along with the role the centralized EU form of decision making is taking in this crisis. At the moment, the Royal Navy is being deployed to bring back Brits stranded in Northern Europe, by sea.

In any case, facing a higher than normal rate of equipment degradation might just be a new cost of doing business for the European airlines if they want to stay in business. It is a wakeup call, a need whose time has come, for more accurate analysis and forecasting. I predict that there will be a lot of second guessing of how this crisis was handled long after flying resumes.

[IBPilot]

Looks like this stuff may hit NL after all!

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/cbc- ... d=23935330

Flights scrapped as Iceland ash heads to N.L.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1538779/

Yup, Canada is the next victum

[Sheila]

Let's keep this thread at the top of the list.

I was just going to say, the media seems to keep showing the same pictures of the volcano site with the terrible black plumes billowing. I haven't seen much of the skies in Europe except one time on the Weather Channel. It was a picture of Brussels and it merely looked hazy.

[bmc]

Air Transat has 8 flts destined for Paris and 4 to the UK today.

[IBPilot]

Air Transat has 8 flts destined for Paris and 4 to the UK today.

Wonderful... Things are moving now

St. Johns Airport appears to have traffic flowing nicely and LHR is still in lockdown

[bmc]

Very strange past couple of days here in Europe. Unusually quiet.

Things are coming back to normal.

[c170b53]

It will be the resumption of risk management except the normal pressures to operate have been skewed by the "to big to not let them depart" mentality Ultimately the ash will cause a problem but a fallback claim such as we didn't see it coming might work.
Ash particles will in time accelerate the normal erosion rate to components such as to probes, skins, protection surfaces of composites and cabin windows. Really the greatest danger to the ash issue is the degradation of internal cooling air systems in the engines. Only testing can provide the answer as to what degree will the ash erode the air system. Cooling air is utilized in engine operation to control and contain the flames in the burner can as well as used to protect HPT components such as nozzle guide vanes from gas path heat. Without proper cooling air flows, a turbine engine would simply melt from within. I'll guess the engine manufacturers already have a good idea as to what will happen if the planes are operated in this belt of ash over a period of time. Its a decision they will let the operators struggle with as its a pay me now and pay me later situation.

[Panama Jack]

Finally made it out of LHR this morning!!!

My longest lay-over ever.

[Pratt]

Ah yes, but was it the best layover ever