Torontomaplelaughs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:48 pm
Isn't Brooks a WestJet Koolaid Lackie?
Just looking for any straw he can find...some bitter jaded folks on AvCanada. A cesspool?
Yes he is. A few years ago he was on here telling us how WJ would eat AC lunch. EtcEtcEtc. SAD. But in reality he is probably now at Encore or Swoop just trying to stay positive and grabbing on to any "Motley Fool" story he can that is negative about AC. Its sad but human nature.
I think WJ fucked up a bit by offering all refunds before the government assistance was actually announced. Even though they really haven't given any yet, if by chance the government support isn't favourable to the airlines and the shareholders dont go for it, WJ will be in a really tough spot.
AC is doing a fantastic job and I think will come out of this in a much stronger position relative to other airlines in Canada.
Duke Point wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2019 4:01 pm
Air Canada will not be sitting on its hands.
WestJet has more than its work cut out for itself if it wants to secure anywhere near a 10B market cap. That market share has to come from somewhere, and AC won't be giving up any willingly.
Don't ever underestimate CR....he's a shark, and likely smarter and far more experienced and connected in aviation than Gerry.
Interesting times ahead.
DP.
It's called eating your lunch bud. That's exactly what WJ is going to do to AC on it's international routes. The 787 product is identical if not better than AC and WJ costs structure is lower.
I post a quote from an article about AC taking a $4 billion dollar loss and you guys pile on like a herd of sea lions. Hilarious. Let's be clear about something. AC is bailing out Transat so the government doesn't have to. It's a salvage operation to protect Quebec jobs.
brooks wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:02 am
I post a quote from an article about AC taking a $4 billion dollar loss and you guys pile on like a herd of sea lions. Hilarious. Let's be clear about something. AC is bailing out Transat so the government doesn't have to. It's a salvage operation to protect Quebec jobs.
Just to be Clear Brooks WJ was in the Market for AT before the S#&t hit the fan! With AC shares on the upswing they will pick AT up for a SONG And the company FYI has a great deal to offer! Go do your homework!!
brooks wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:02 am
I post a quote from an article about AC taking a $4 billion dollar loss and you guys pile on like a herd of sea lions. Hilarious. Let's be clear about something. AC is bailing out Transat so the government doesn't have to. It's a salvage operation to protect Quebec jobs.
Motley fool will make you look like a fool. Their analysis is junk and flip flops every other day.
Thus far, AC has been able to ‘restructure’ many cash sensitive financing and commercial obligations. Accordingly, cash burn is reduced and tipping point for insolvency moving further away from today’s date.
No doubt that AC will be engaging with vendors as well to modify terms to reflect anticipated reduced operations for at least 2021/2022 if not 2023 and beyond.
Even without government assistance or relief, AC is in better shape to cope with COVID related reduced demand than it was in Q1 and Q2. If there is assistance or relief offered on reasonable terms, then the financial situation at AC will further stabilize and perhaps even estimate when AC will reach daily cash burn of zero (no time soon but perhaps on the horizon).
As another poster pointed out, many of the AC losses incurred to date were non-cash. US carriers doing the same accounting. They have thrown the kitchen sink in to 2020 hoping financials for 2021 will turn the corner.
AC went to market today to solicit $850MM from a share offering. If the 15% oversubscription is converted, the proceeds will be just under $1B.
And AC acquired TRZ for virtually no cash outlay, assuming that most TRZ shareholders opt for AC shares in lieu of cash.
December 2020 is looking like a pretty good month for AC, COVID notwithstanding.
CR is a shark. Never lets a good crisis go to waste. Somewhere up on the top floor of AC HQ there is a big board that looks well out in to the future. Would be great to get a peek at it.
Certainly hope that MR will be able to execute. The skill set that CR brought to the position was unique. More simple force of character than anything else. Knowing when and how to make the other side blink is an art rather than a science. You don’t learn it in a classroom.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more significant announcements before CR departs on Feb 15.
rudder wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:55 am
AC went to market today to solicit $850MM from a share offering. If the 15% oversubscription is converted, the proceeds will be just under $1B.
More dilution of the share base to keep the company afloat. That's the way it should be, shareholders take the haircut from a downturn, dont offload it on the taxpayers.
This is basically the third trip to the dilution trough, had a significant share sale some months back, then the Transat transaction will result in yet more new shares being printed, and now this financing round that is producing 35.4 million shares priced at 24.00, which will turn into 40 million shares if the 15% over subscription is taken up.
After you tally up all the new shares printed, AC stock price reaching 30 dollars will put the corporation at the same value it was pre-pandemic with a 50 dollar share price. With this round priced at the 24 dollar point, a significant recovery in the medium term is already fully priced into AC shares.
850 raised @ 10-15 mil burn per-day gone in 2-3 mos
Hope it gets better sooner rather than later but I honestly can’t see it being a summer where everyone wants to travel just yet.
Squid wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:22 am
850 raised @ 10-15 mil burn per-day gone in 2-3 mos
Hope it gets better sooner rather than later but I honestly can’t see it being a summer where everyone wants to travel just yet.
Q4 2020 cash burn rates cannot be sustained. Q1 2021 will not see much improvement. One would assume that AC is hoping to see daily cash burn rates halved by the end of Q2 2021.
Right now it is all about the revenue side of the equation. Current passenger volume sitting at 8% of pre-COVID levels. Some variable expenses (fuel/wages) have been mitigated, but a significant amount of overhead represents a fixed expense (notwithstanding deferred lease payments that will have to be repaid over time).
Revenue recovery is the key. Get out your crystal ball to estimate when and by how much. There is also the issue of yields, if it is just the low margin leisure segment that recovers first.
Squid wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:22 am
850 raised @ 10-15 mil burn per-day gone in 2-3 mos
Hope it gets better sooner rather than later but I honestly can’t see it being a summer where everyone wants to travel just yet.
Q4 2020 cash burn rates cannot be sustained. Q1 2021 will not see much improvement. One would assume that AC is hoping to see daily cash burn rates halved by the end of Q2 2021.
Right now it is all about the revenue side of the equation. Current passenger volume sitting at 8% of pre-COVID levels. Some variable expenses (fuel/wages) have been mitigated, but a significant amount of overhead represents a fixed expense (notwithstanding deferred lease payments that will have to be repaid over time).
Revenue recovery is the key. Get out your crystal ball to estimate when and by how much. There is also the issue of yields, if it is just the low margin leisure segment that recovers first.
Wow, I assumed these stats were at the start of the pandemic, I assumed it would have came up a bit since then.
rudder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:51 am
Revenue recovery is the key. Get out your crystal ball to estimate when and by how much. There is also the issue of yields, if it is just the low margin leisure segment that recovers first.
Barring refunds happening, then the majority of the leisure travel in 2021 will not produce revenue, just using up credits, and a bunch of that may spill over into 2022 as well. Possibly flying a bunch of full airplanes around, but only collecting money for 25% of the seats.
brooks wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:01 am
How many more rounds of funding are needed to keep the ship afloat? AC stock is going back to low teens at best.
The whole industry is at risk... and brooks is out hatin' on AC... what's new?
At least I won't be wearing a pink tie or whatever it is... good luck with that.
brooks wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:01 am
How many more rounds of funding are needed to keep the ship afloat? AC stock is going back to low teens at best.
At what point does a Private Equity Firm cut its losses keeping the ship afloat? Westjet will be replaced with Swoop and you will be hating on AC even more when your pay is less than a Costco Sample Brand Ambassador. Good luck Brooks!
I have no hate on for AC as you assume. AC will get its standard tax payer funded bail out and continue being bloated and privileged. I guess you feel triggered and need to pull out the pink tie, and Costco jokes because I start bringing out the financial facts. Enjoy yet another B pay scale.
brooks wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:16 am
I have no hate on for AC as you assume. AC will get its standard tax payer funded bail out and continue being bloated and privileged. I guess you feel triggered and need to pull out the pink tie, and Costco jokes because I start bringing out the financial facts. Enjoy yet another B pay scale.
Making things up now... whatever makes you feel better about yourself brooks. Careful throwing stones in your own glass house...
brooks wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:16 am
I have no hate on for AC as you assume. AC will get its standard tax payer funded bail out and continue being bloated and privileged. I guess you feel triggered and need to pull out the pink tie, and Costco jokes because I start bringing out the financial facts. Enjoy yet another B pay scale.
Here are a few FACTS you can chew on. TCA wa set up as an independent division of the CN railway back in 1937. Until the Crown Corporation was sold off to become a Private Company there was a fair amount of Government funds invested. When Air Canada was sold off ; the Government got it;s investment back. That makes it the ONLY Crown Corporation that ever turned a profit. As a private Company under CCAA almost 20 years ago, the Federal government did back loans so Air Canada would survive and 100% of those loans were repaid.
The whole Aviation industry in Canada will need help to come out the other end. I expect once Covid ends, it will take the Canadian avaition industry 3 or 4 years to get back to the needed Capacity. The damage is extreme and most Countries have given their Carriers considerable help long before now. The Feds have taxed aviation as the biggest cash cow they have ever seen for decades. The real issue is the whole Canadian Aviation segment and not just AC.
Aside from the huge human impact of COVID, there are so many other impacts, not all of which are negative.
For one, by necessity, business has been forced to embrace technology on an exponentially accelerated basis. As an investor, I would be avoiding all downtown commercial real estate investment because every single business has now been forced to realize, out of necessity, that business, as we knew it, has moved on, virtually. We don't need a huge office with an army of support staff!
In the coming months, for example, I have several court hearings scheduled, none of which will require travel of the lawyers or judges in Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver. It will all be conducted on-line. All of my law annual training requirements (the equivalent of ART for pilots) is now conducted on-line. All of my scheduled court hearings are now scheduled on-line. It will not be long, in my view, before jury trials will be conducted on-line. Everything, from home!
Raymond Hall wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 11:49 pm
In the coming months, for example, I have several court hearings scheduled, none of which will require travel of the lawyers or judges in Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver. It will all be conducted on-line. All of my law annual training requirements (the equivalent of ART for pilots) is now conducted on-line. All of my scheduled court hearings are now scheduled on-line. It will not be long, in my view, before jury trials will be conducted on-line. Everything, from home!
Does that mean you get to charge your client per megabyte bandwidth used instead of mileage?
---------- ADS -----------
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
pigboat wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:06 pm
Here are a few FACTS you can chew on. TCA wa set up as an independent division of the CN railway back in 1937. Until the Crown Corporation was sold off to become a Private Company there was a fair amount of Government funds invested. When Air Canada was sold off ; the Government got it;s investment back. That makes it the ONLY Crown Corporation that ever turned a profit. As a private Company under CCAA almost 20 years ago, the Federal government did back loans so Air Canada would survive and 100% of those loans were repaid.
This isn't quite accurate. When the federal government privatized AC in the mid-1980's (first tranche) and the early 1990's (second tranche), they left AC virtually debt free (all of the aircraft were paid off, i.e. B767's, B727's, DC9's, etc.) and also bankrolled them with about $1.4 billion in cash. At that time, the federal government (Mulroney administration) was running about $50 billion deficits which, in today's dollars, is a lot of money and eclipses what the Trudeau government was doing pre-COVID. In other words, the long-suffering taxpayers of Canada could have really, really used the money.
Using the equity of the unencumbered aircraft, AC did a number of sale-leasebacks to raise cash to get through the recession of the early 1990's (and try to run Canadi>n Airlines out of business using, er, essentially tax payers money).
There is nothing a big, dominant corporation hates more than competition. The only difference between those and the small business, is they can afford to do something about it. I always figured if things kept rolling in, why get greedy? Of course, I was just naive, because there is always somebody trying actively to put you out of business, no matter how successful they are.
digits_ wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:37 am
Does that mean you get to charge your client per megabyte bandwidth used instead of mileage?
What it means, practically speaking, is that you almost never meet your clients. Hardly any more face to face meetings. For all that your clients know, could be on Mars.
And, as Jeffrey Toobin recently found out, you have to be very, very careful about your technology.
I now keep my web camera face down on my desk until I need to use it for a meeting, and then place it on top of the screen only for so long as I need it for the meeting. And I don't have devices such as Alexa or any other intrusive technology that can monitor my private conversations. The pervasiveness of existing technology opens up entirely new issues about the lives we live, including our rights and duties to protect our privacy and confidentiality.
