Will this industry ever recover?

[pitottubey]

It seems like every week there is either some bad news or some permanent agreement lowering pilot wages another 20% forever.

I once wanted to pursue a pilot career but even in the best 2/3 years in history it seemed your best bet was to drive a forklift for at least a year to make $20,000 a year in the middle of nowhere. I can't imagine how it will be in a few months?

The state of the airline industry in Canada from a pilots perspective is atrocious. And it will get worse. Case in point is that recently the association supposedly representing Air Canada pilots negotiated a 10% PAY CUT for cargo operations. And the pilot group voted YES. This is during a time when cargo demand is increasing.

And yet, supposedly AC is the top of the Canadian airline industry for WAWCON. Pay and contract conditions have steadily gone down in the last 20 years. If things didn’t improve in the boom times, they won’t in the recovery.

In contrast, regional USA airlines are paying more than Air Canada mainline and giving huge bonuses for retention and flow through to their majors due to their recovery.
https://www.alpa.org/news-and-events/ne ... nal-pilots

That is simply one example. When asked I recommend people not become a pilot in Canada. If they are able to work in the states, then by all means go for it. The states airline industry is in an entirely different place than ours is, and it doesn’t look like that will change.

Well if this American pilot visa thing goes through that all WILL change I would have to think

[digits_]

If they are able to work in the states, then by all means go for it. The states airline industry is in an entirely different place than ours is, and it doesn’t look like that will change.

Things can change really quickly.

2010: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/ ... ours-wages
2014: https://fortune.com/2014/03/03/why-airl ... of-pilots/
2017: https://slate.com/business/2017/09/how- ... -jobs.html

2019: Signing bonuses, retention bonuses

[Zaibatsu]

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.

[Koalemos]

True enough. The industry is very cyclical. I don’t see the WAWCON improving in Canada much (if it doesn’t get worse), regardless of what the USA does.

[garfield]

1500 hours for FO 705 change a lot of things.

I don't think this industry will ever be back to 2019 levels. Covid is far from over, governements have wayy too much debts and climate change restrictions are coming sooner or later.

Hope I'm wrong

[tbaylx]

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.

There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.

[Invertago]

In terms of recovery I think this YYC movements chart shows our direction pretty clearly. As for WAWCON, that should hopefully follow.

[sio31790]

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.

There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.

And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...

[alkaseltzer]

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.

There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.

And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...

We have foreign ATPL pilots flying for hire in Canada?

[imjustlurking]

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.

There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.

And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...

Of course there is not much room for entry into 705 at the moment. Most airlines are still recalling and have a list of pilots that they must offer recall to before they can hire off of the street.

It's not as bad for the regionals, but still a thing.

[RoAF-Mig21]

I think it's inevitable that the industry will recover. The question is not "IF" but rather "WHEN".

People are eager to travel. I just took my first overseas trip since the start of the pandemic. Coming back from Europe, my flight was 100% full and that's with all the draconian requirements imposed by Canada. I am fully vaccinated, had a PCR test in Europe the day before departing, had another PCR test upon landing in Canada (both negative) and went through 7 or 8 forms and passport / boarding pass checks. (That's a whole different topic).

Once governments realize that COVID isn't going away and they find we find a way to live with it, travel will bounce back and it will exceed 2019 levels. Before Covid-19, the major carriers were short of pilots and started tapping into flight schools and signing agreements with various operators for pilots to "flow through" various regional and mainline carriers.

While business travel in Canada will subside a bit, it won't be the "doom and gloom" some people are presenting.

Bottom line:
Things will get better, then worse, then better, then worse. Aviation was always an "UP & DOWN" industry. (Pun intended).

Stay positive. You have to be able to adapt and ride these waves. Getting into a decent company and building seniority will be key to your success in handling these waves.

Cheers
RoAF-Mig21

[garfield]

Depends if they remove the testing requirements.

Many people will not take the risk to be stuck 2 extra weeks at destination for a positive covid test.

[imjustlurking]

It's already recovering.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KJ ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KA ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/EG ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/LF ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/LL ... -container

[Koalemos]

While travel will undoubtedly return, the WAWCON for pilots will not. It has been on a downward trajectory even during boom times. At some point single pilot flight decks will happen (10 years, 30 years, who knows) as Airbus/Boeing are already working on it.

[parallel60]

It's already recovering.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/CY ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KJ ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KA ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/EG ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/LF ... -container

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/LL ... -container

This is great info thank you for posting. The graphs comparing 2019/2020/2021 are positive.

[dhc#]

Wow, wish this was the case in Canada.

Pilots Are in Demand Again, as Strained Airlines Go on a Hiring Spree

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pilots-are ... 1636367402

[ayseven]

Just think of how great you'll feel when you "make it". Who said life was easy? We are tougher here in our country because things are genuinely harder.

[Launchpad1]

Just think of how great you'll feel when you "make it". Who said life was easy? We are tougher here in our country because things are genuinely harder.

Still a multi thousand $ hiring bonus would be nice!

[EPR]

Just think of how great you'll feel when you "make it". Who said life was easy? We are tougher here in our country because things are genuinely harder.

Still a multi thousand $ hiring bonus would be nice!

I won't be applying until there is a signing bonus! #SolidaritySureWouldChangeThings!

[goldeneagle]

Still a multi thousand $ hiring bonus would be nice!

Signing bonus tends to happen when a company has more openings than qualified applicants. I have offered them in the past for design engineers. In 20 years of being involved with the hiring for pilots, never once have I seen a time when we didn't have more than 10 applications on file when a position came available, and the norm is to have far more than that.

[Launchpad1]

Signing bonus tends to happen when a company has more openings than qualified applicants. I have offered them in the past for design engineers. In 20 years of being involved with the hiring for pilots, never once have I seen a time when we didn't have more than 10 applications on file when a position came available, and the norm is to have far more than that.

True. I do know though that (before covid) some cargo operations in Canada were offering sign on bonuses.

I'd just like the salary in Canada to be as good as that in the US. It's not like it costs less to live here than it does down south.