GEAR UP LANDINGS
Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog
-
iflyforpie
- Top Poster

- Posts: 8132
- Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:25 pm
- Location: Winterfell...
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I don't think anybody is trying to justify landing with the gear up. If I scrape the pavement at the end of a long duty day after a night of drinking, a fight with the wife, and a comm failure; it is still my fault.
I regularly switch between fixed gear and retractable, so it isn't 'something I do' as far as putting the wheels down. No SOPs or co-pilot to help me out either. I don't do a gear check on a fixed gear because I don't want that 'automatic response' developing where I look at the panel and pretend everything is okay.
I regularly switch between fixed gear and retractable, so it isn't 'something I do' as far as putting the wheels down. No SOPs or co-pilot to help me out either. I don't do a gear check on a fixed gear because I don't want that 'automatic response' developing where I look at the panel and pretend everything is okay.
Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?
- Cat Driver
- Top Poster

- Posts: 18921
- Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2004 8:31 pm
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I can not think of any training exercise where pulling a circuit breaker is a recommended procedure for teaching the student to lower the gear.
Circuit breakers are a protection device for an electrical fault.
Pulling a circuit breaker as a training procedure for landing gear position, where do these ideas come from?
Circuit breakers are a protection device for an electrical fault.
Pulling a circuit breaker as a training procedure for landing gear position, where do these ideas come from?
The hardest thing about flying is knowing when to say no
After over a half a century of flying no one ever died because of my decision not to fly.
After over a half a century of flying no one ever died because of my decision not to fly.
-
flyinthebug
- Rank (9)

- Posts: 1689
- Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2004 8:36 am
- Location: CYPA
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I agree Cat. One of my instructors pulled a breaker on me on my landing gear but I noted it fairly quickly. I always thought that was a bonehead kinda move on his part. Oh well.
Doc.. I respect what your saying and if I was as arrogant as you (lol) id also say "it would not happen to me"... The pilots I was referring to is the 1500 hr Capt on a PA31-350 shooting an approach (maybe 1st one) to mins in Gods Lake MB... He misses on his first approach , stays composed and focused but it was 0/0 at the MDA and he frets a bit as he flys the missed.. In the fear we ALL have experienced in that moment.. he fixates on what he was trained to do "fly the plane".. so he carries on his 2nd approach in hard IMC and sees a light just before MDA.. He was so intent on seeing that light.. he forgot his gumps check..
Thats a true story from an MB air service I worked at. The Capt was a very capable but fairly inexperienced pilot at the time. He forgot the gear and he was like you.. It would never happen to me. It happened to him and even at your age and stage in an "abnormal" and new situation, you too could forget the gear my friend!.. Never say never. I ran outta fuel, go figure.
I say this with much respect to your abilities. Your simply WRONG if you think it couldnt happen to you,.. as YOU are the one its most likely to happen to!
Fly Safe all, Cheers
Doc.. I respect what your saying and if I was as arrogant as you (lol) id also say "it would not happen to me"... The pilots I was referring to is the 1500 hr Capt on a PA31-350 shooting an approach (maybe 1st one) to mins in Gods Lake MB... He misses on his first approach , stays composed and focused but it was 0/0 at the MDA and he frets a bit as he flys the missed.. In the fear we ALL have experienced in that moment.. he fixates on what he was trained to do "fly the plane".. so he carries on his 2nd approach in hard IMC and sees a light just before MDA.. He was so intent on seeing that light.. he forgot his gumps check..
Thats a true story from an MB air service I worked at. The Capt was a very capable but fairly inexperienced pilot at the time. He forgot the gear and he was like you.. It would never happen to me. It happened to him and even at your age and stage in an "abnormal" and new situation, you too could forget the gear my friend!.. Never say never. I ran outta fuel, go figure.
I say this with much respect to your abilities. Your simply WRONG if you think it couldnt happen to you,.. as YOU are the one its most likely to happen to!
Fly Safe all, Cheers
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Doc wrote "JigglyBus....no need to regress from your usual lady like replies."????
I think I missed that one.... does that mean my replies are usually lady like, and this one wasn't, or they usually aren't but this one is?
Out of curiosity, have you ever made a mistake at anything, or is your perfect record only aviation related?
On a side note, I finally realized where the nickname "Doc" comes from, it's the same place Little John's nickname comes from. I can't believe I didn't catch on before, but then again, that just adds to the long list of errors I've made over the years.
I think I missed that one.... does that mean my replies are usually lady like, and this one wasn't, or they usually aren't but this one is?
Out of curiosity, have you ever made a mistake at anything, or is your perfect record only aviation related?
On a side note, I finally realized where the nickname "Doc" comes from, it's the same place Little John's nickname comes from. I can't believe I didn't catch on before, but then again, that just adds to the long list of errors I've made over the years.
-
shitdisturber
- Rank 10

- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2004 3:38 pm
- Location: If it's Monday it's got to be somewhere shitty
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I'm in the "never" category; not because I think I'm infallible or anything else, but because I'm extremely careful about the gear. One of my little tricks, whenever I can; is to watch the nose gear come down in the mirror, then I check the lights. Not all aircraft have that conveniently placed mirror I well know but for those of you that have it, I'd recommend it. As well, I run through a GUMPS check; or whatever variation you choose, multiple times on the way down. I've always been of the school of thought that if you've got a spare second or two on the way down, why not use it to do something useful?
-
Flying Nutcracker
- Rank 6

- Posts: 469
- Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 3:14 pm
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
At minimums or crossing the fence, even flying a medium jet I still check 2 things; 3+1 green
3 gears and speedbrake armed.
Even with all the redundancies of my airplane it is such an important thing to make sure with my own eyes that the lights are green.
FN
3 gears and speedbrake armed.
Even with all the redundancies of my airplane it is such an important thing to make sure with my own eyes that the lights are green.
FN
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
If there's one thing I'm OCD about, it's a quick flash of the eyes over to the flaps and gear over the fence. So while I believe it could happen to anyone, I don't think it'll happen to me. I've known enough guys that have done it to be paranoid enough, I think.
Drinking outside the box.
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Short final check (no matter what checks have been done before) "Got the flaps, got the gear, runway's clear, time for beer!"
Perhaps it should be SOP?
Perhaps it should be SOP?
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I'm with the Doc crowd. Landing with the wheels in the wrong position, there just aint no excuse for that. Same goes for running out of gas. If either happen, there is no doling out blame, its all yours. I watch the gas go into my airplane rain or shine. I've seen a jet fuel truck pull up to a piston pounder and were it not for an alert pilot, and not the driver of the plane in question, there would have been a faux pas once the avgas in the lines came to an end. Right brand, right quantity, caps securely on. And after the before landing checklist, over the fence, one more look, rigged to land!
Those are my two greatest fears because there is no explanation I can give should either occur. It would simply be colour me stupid. So the paranoia is a good thing that makes me check and re-check those items and makes their chances of happening extremely remote. I'd like to come out and say it as forcefully as Doc does, but I don't want to issue the Gods a challenge to mess with me.
Those are my two greatest fears because there is no explanation I can give should either occur. It would simply be colour me stupid. So the paranoia is a good thing that makes me check and re-check those items and makes their chances of happening extremely remote. I'd like to come out and say it as forcefully as Doc does, but I don't want to issue the Gods a challenge to mess with me.
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
This is great. No wonder you're so sure of yourself.Doc wrote:"Got the flaps, got the gear, runway's clear, time for beer!"
-
nimbostratus
- Rank 3

- Posts: 197
- Joined: Tue May 30, 2006 9:08 am
- Location: Calgary
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Then you are gonna LOVE this accident report. A DC-8 ran out of gas while sorting out a landing gear malfunction... What Morons!W0X0F wrote:I'm with the Doc crowd. Landing with the wheels in the wrong position, there just aint no excuse for that. Same goes for running out of gas. If either happen, there is no doling out blame, its all yours. I watch the gas go into my airplane rain or shine. I've seen a jet fuel truck pull up to a piston pounder and were it not for an alert pilot, and not the driver of the plane in question, there would have been a faux pas once the avgas in the lines came to an end. Right brand, right quantity, caps securely on. And after the before landing checklist, over the fence, one more look, rigged to land!
Those are my two greatest fears because there is no explanation I can give should either occur. It would simply be colour me stupid. So the paranoia is a good thing that makes me check and re-check those items and makes their chances of happening extremely remote. I'd like to come out and say it as forcefully as Doc does, but I don't want to issue the Gods a challenge to mess with me.
http://www.fss.aero/accident-reports/lo ... rt_key=154
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes!
"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person.
Give him a mask and he will tell the truth." -- Oscar Wilde
"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person.
Give him a mask and he will tell the truth." -- Oscar Wilde
-
flyinthebug
- Rank (9)

- Posts: 1689
- Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2004 8:36 am
- Location: CYPA
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
What if... your aircraft is rolled up to you and taken to the lake to be launched. You are in consult with the AMO owner that just ran the aircraft up...you check the fuel guages 15 times during the 15 min warm up.. You confirm and reconfirm your fuel.. only to find out you didnt have any?.. How does this happen?. I asked myself the same question for 14 yrs and always believed as you do. It wouldnt happen to me. Faulty gauges WERE a contributing factor in my accident. The only thing I could have done differently was "insult" the AMO owner and his intelligence by demanding he bring me 4- 5 Gal jerry cans of avgas because I dont believe the guages were just recalibrated.. I also dont believe what they are reading is correct. Ya know, looking back, I wish I had done just that. So, your right its the PIC responsibility at the end of the day and if you leave your wheels hung up when thye should be down.. You only have yourself to look at in the mirror.. In the same way its *I* who didnt confirm my fuel load. I accept that it was MY mistake that cost me. That still doesnt change the fact that it COULD happen to any one of us when we least expect it.W0X0F wrote:I'm with the Doc crowd. Landing with the wheels in the wrong position, there just aint no excuse for that. Same goes for running out of gas. If either happen, there is no doling out blame, its all yours. I watch the gas go into my airplane rain or shine. I've seen a jet fuel truck pull up to a piston pounder and were it not for an alert pilot, and not the driver of the plane in question, there would have been a faux pas once the avgas in the lines came to an end. Right brand, right quantity, caps securely on. And after the before landing checklist, over the fence, one more look, rigged to land!
Those are my two greatest fears because there is no explanation I can give should either occur. It would simply be colour me stupid. So the paranoia is a good thing that makes me check and re-check those items and makes their chances of happening extremely remote. I'd like to come out and say it as forcefully as Doc does, but I don't want to issue the Gods a challenge to mess with me.
Fly safe all.
PS.. Doc, love your short final :check"
-
Just another canuck
- Rank 10

- Posts: 2083
- Joined: Wed May 21, 2008 6:21 am
- Location: The Lake.
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Doc wrote:"Got the flaps, got the gear, runway's clear, time for beer!"
Cheers.
P.S. I checked off "Never."
Twenty years from now you'll be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the things you did do.
So throw off the bowlines.
Sail away from the safe harbor.
Catch the trade winds in your sails.
Explore. Dream. Discover.
So throw off the bowlines.
Sail away from the safe harbor.
Catch the trade winds in your sails.
Explore. Dream. Discover.
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
FTB, the Gods were defiantly conspiring against you on that day, in that place. But with the fuel gauges on almost all antique aircraft (Beaver, Otter, DC3, and a bunch of others) the way they are, the only level you can be really sure of (without a dip stick) is full.
Airplanes can, and do run out of fuel. It's "almost" always the fault of the crew. Sometimes, though the wx can get involved. Or the math. Or, metric to sae?
I had a CP tell me the Navajo was "all fueled pre-flighted, and ready to go..." only to get airborne, and need to call the fuel guy out at 2300 on a Sunday night in Wawa. Lying bastage!
But the gear? That's the total fault of the drivers. No plausible excuse that I can think of.
Don't have the stats to back this up, but I'll bet more than 20 airplanes land gear up, for every one that runs out of fuel?
Airplanes can, and do run out of fuel. It's "almost" always the fault of the crew. Sometimes, though the wx can get involved. Or the math. Or, metric to sae?
I had a CP tell me the Navajo was "all fueled pre-flighted, and ready to go..." only to get airborne, and need to call the fuel guy out at 2300 on a Sunday night in Wawa. Lying bastage!
But the gear? That's the total fault of the drivers. No plausible excuse that I can think of.
Don't have the stats to back this up, but I'll bet more than 20 airplanes land gear up, for every one that runs out of fuel?
-
Mitch Cronin
- Rank 8

- Posts: 914
- Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:15 am
- Location: Right beside my dog again...
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Excellent post! I haven't read the rest of the thread yet, but I thought this was well worth quoting...nimbostratus wrote:Anyone else wondering how the two North Cariboo pilots would have voted a week ago? In the uber-elite 25% with Doc or with the 64% that think it just might be possible?
We've all heard of the swiss cheese accident model. Never much cared for the analogy. I tend to lean towards the pass-code theory. (my own) I don't think every pilot will land gear up. In fact I think the numbers will prove very few ever do. I do believe, that given the right set of conditions or triggers, it can happen to even the best of the pilots I have flown with. In some pilots the code may be short, say three numbers, each representing a hazard on a particular flight, that if unchecked and happen in the just the right combination with just the right timing... there will be a terrible scraping sound on touchdown.
Some pilots will have a longer combination than others maybe not three numbers, maybe eight or nine. That's eight or nine things that have to happen in a specific manner for a gear up landing to occur. This makes it much less likely to happen in a pilots career. Whether it's fatigue, complacency, pressure, stress, problems at home, an unrelated distracting mechanical issue, etc., given the right set of circumstances I personally believe we are all vulnerable to sitting on the ground with the same grief as the two pilots the other day.
Pilots who are adamant are either in complete denial of their true capabilities, or perhaps know they are lacking in some way and are putting forth a strong front in compensation.
If anyone here has ever read Bob Hoovers autobiography, you may remember his story about crashing his Shrike Commander shortly after take-off due to being fuelled with Jet fuel rather than avgas. Who's fault was it? The fuellers or Bob's? I've flown that airplane (the Shrike) and I can't even begin to tell you how many competent fuellers pulled up to it in a jet fuel truck. It closely resembles the turbo-commander. I knew this, so I never left the airplane until the fueller had started fuelling it with the actual avgas truck. This doesn't make me a better pilot than Bob Hoover. I was just being more careful than he was on the day of his crash. What Bob did next was what I am getting at. He got back to the airport, where his P-51 was parked for the airshow and found the fueller in a corner crying over his mistake. Bob went straight to him and informed him that he is the only fueller allowed to fuel his other airplane for the remainder of the event. His reasoning? Because that fueller wasn't going to make that mistake again.
Food for thought. The Cariboo guys seem to have hit their code the other day. I can't say if it took 3 numbers or 13. To be honest I don't care. But whatever it took to make them make this mistake has added numbrs to their code. Making it far less likely to happen to them again then certain others in our community.
Learn from your mistakes and move on people.
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
First
And nowDoc wrote:Any, and all checks should be taken care of well above 200 feet!
What is your definition of short final?Doc wrote:Short final check (no matter what checks have been done before) "Got the flaps, got the gear, runway's clear, time for beer!"
Perhaps it should be SOP?
-
GoinNowhereFast
- Rank 5

- Posts: 372
- Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:35 pm
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
201' 
Sarcasm is the body's natural defense against stupidity
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
nope won't happen... first of all... its second nature and second of all with the gear comes the landing checklist... how do you land without the landing checklist completed? Basic SOPs ladies and gents
Having trouble reaching ATC? Squak 7500
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Krashman, have you ever deviated from an SOP? Honestly?
Rule books in themselves do not prevent accidents.
Rule books in themselves do not prevent accidents.
The fastest way to turn money into smoke and noise..
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I'm pretty sure this A10 pilot thought it would never happen to him http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... 080327.jpg
Or a C17... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... r_Base.jpg
Or a C17... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... r_Base.jpg
Think ahead or fall behind!
-
mag check
- Rank 7

- Posts: 631
- Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:24 am
- Location: Drink in my hand, feet in the sand
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Don't have the stats to back this up, but I'll bet more than 20 airplanes land gear up, for every one that runs out of fuel?
I would highly doubt that. Most fuel starvation engine failures don't end up with any damage, so they don't get reported. Other than an amphib landing gear up on the runway, and not causing damage, I think it is pretty hard to hide a king air sitting on the runway with the gear still in the wells.
I'll bet someone just ran out of fuel right now, and another right now.................
We're all here, because we're not all there.
-
sky's the limit
- Rank Moderator

- Posts: 4614
- Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 11:38 am
- Location: Now where's the starter button on this thing???
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Wow,
I've refrained from reading through this thread as I no longer fly retractable gear aircraft, but I once did. Regardless, it's not just gear positioning issues we're discussing here, it's human fallibility and deviation from routine.
Most FW applications are SOP driven, the same day in day out with high levels of routine. Becoming habituated to something may preclude many mistakes, but throw in a few factors like fatigue, irregular operations/circumstances, stress, etc, etc, and you find VERY quickly that interruption of routine - no matter how minor - can have catastrophic consequences.
The post above by Nimbostratus is bang on.
I'm sitting here reading this shaking my head at the number of guys/gals choosing "Never" and trying to back it up with all kinds of rationale. I just don't get it, are your egos that large where it prevents you from seeing how easy it is to make errors of any kind? In my world we're involved in extremely fluid operations where routine is almost never regular and the probability of mistakes is very high, and we're involved in operations like bucketing forest fires that CAN be very routine. We just lost (another) high time, experienced pilot the other day with experiences under his belt that many of you cannot imagine - in a routine application that had a few curveballs thrown in that day.
If it can happen, it can happen to anyone and to think otherwise is nothing short of arrogant. For God's sake don't go around thinking you're above it. We are all one start away from making the mistake that can end in the worst possible way. You, me, the AME's who fix our machines, the customers we deal with, the lot. Some applications are more susceptible than others, but they are all susceptible in one way or another.
My two cents.
stl
I've refrained from reading through this thread as I no longer fly retractable gear aircraft, but I once did. Regardless, it's not just gear positioning issues we're discussing here, it's human fallibility and deviation from routine.
Most FW applications are SOP driven, the same day in day out with high levels of routine. Becoming habituated to something may preclude many mistakes, but throw in a few factors like fatigue, irregular operations/circumstances, stress, etc, etc, and you find VERY quickly that interruption of routine - no matter how minor - can have catastrophic consequences.
The post above by Nimbostratus is bang on.
I'm sitting here reading this shaking my head at the number of guys/gals choosing "Never" and trying to back it up with all kinds of rationale. I just don't get it, are your egos that large where it prevents you from seeing how easy it is to make errors of any kind? In my world we're involved in extremely fluid operations where routine is almost never regular and the probability of mistakes is very high, and we're involved in operations like bucketing forest fires that CAN be very routine. We just lost (another) high time, experienced pilot the other day with experiences under his belt that many of you cannot imagine - in a routine application that had a few curveballs thrown in that day.
If it can happen, it can happen to anyone and to think otherwise is nothing short of arrogant. For God's sake don't go around thinking you're above it. We are all one start away from making the mistake that can end in the worst possible way. You, me, the AME's who fix our machines, the customers we deal with, the lot. Some applications are more susceptible than others, but they are all susceptible in one way or another.
My two cents.
stl
-
iflyforpie
- Top Poster

- Posts: 8132
- Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:25 pm
- Location: Winterfell...
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
I can tell you that about half the retractable aircraft I work on have had a gear-up at one point or another.
To be fair, not all of them were pilot error.
The most interesting thing I've found, is that pretty much every Piper Arrow I've worked on has had a gear-up landing. I find it so interesting because the Arrow has an automatic free-fall function one the power is taken off below a certain airspeed.
Try to make things idiot-proof....
To be fair, not all of them were pilot error.
The most interesting thing I've found, is that pretty much every Piper Arrow I've worked on has had a gear-up landing. I find it so interesting because the Arrow has an automatic free-fall function one the power is taken off below a certain airspeed.
Try to make things idiot-proof....
Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?
-
rightseatwonder
- Rank 6

- Posts: 406
- Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:21 am
- Location: M.78 FL410
-
sky's the limit
- Rank Moderator

- Posts: 4614
- Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 11:38 am
- Location: Now where's the starter button on this thing???
Re: GEAR UP LANDINGS
Just so the two posts are together:
I just walked out to the machine and had another few thoughts on this.
There is another thread going concurrent to this about "High Time" pilots, the two are very directly related.
Most of my career has been spent in the types of applications that I described above as "fluid," but not all. Either way it doesn't matter as regardless of what I may be asked to do, from setting towers on top of mountains, to bucketing fires, toeing in geologists or loggers on rock faces or slippery stumps, I have developed a method or an approach that works for me and has kept me safe.
I have had no accidents in may career with almost daily opportunity for them - does that mean my routine or my approach to any given situation is accident proof? I think not. My method has worked to keep me accident free thus far, but the ONLY indication that my method works is that fact. Who's to say the right set of circumstances won't prove my method to have some flaws, possibly fatal ones? Nobody.
I may encounter those circumstances today with my fire crew, or I may never, either way there is no proof that I won't forget something or assume something to be safe (for years) which is not, and thus further habituate myself into thinking I am doing my best to cover all the bases... until one day I'm proven wrong.
Nor is there any proof that any of your methods will, with certainty, preclude a gear-up.
stl
Wow,
I've refrained from reading through this thread as I no longer fly retractable gear aircraft, but I once did. Regardless, it's not just gear positioning issues we're discussing here, it's human fallibility and deviation from routine.
Most FW applications are SOP driven, the same day in day out with high levels of routine. Becoming habituated to something may preclude many mistakes, but throw in a few factors like fatigue, irregular operations/circumstances, stress, etc, etc, and you find VERY quickly that interruption of routine - no matter how minor - can have catastrophic consequences.
The post above by Nimbostratus is bang on.
I'm sitting here reading this shaking my head at the number of guys/gals choosing "Never" and trying to back it up with all kinds of rationale. I just don't get it, are your egos that large where it prevents you from seeing how easy it is to make errors of any kind? In my world we're involved in extremely fluid operations where routine is almost never regular and the probability of mistakes is very high, and we're involved in operations like bucketing forest fires that CAN be very routine. We just lost (another) high time, experienced pilot the other day with experiences under his belt that many of you cannot imagine - in a routine application that had a few curveballs thrown in that day.
If it can happen, it can happen to anyone and to think otherwise is nothing short of arrogant. For God's sake don't go around thinking you're above it. We are all one start away from making the mistake that can end in the worst possible way. You, me, the AME's who fix our machines, the customers we deal with, the lot. Some applications are more susceptible than others, but they are all susceptible in one way or another.
My two cents.
stl
I just walked out to the machine and had another few thoughts on this.
There is another thread going concurrent to this about "High Time" pilots, the two are very directly related.
Most of my career has been spent in the types of applications that I described above as "fluid," but not all. Either way it doesn't matter as regardless of what I may be asked to do, from setting towers on top of mountains, to bucketing fires, toeing in geologists or loggers on rock faces or slippery stumps, I have developed a method or an approach that works for me and has kept me safe.
I have had no accidents in may career with almost daily opportunity for them - does that mean my routine or my approach to any given situation is accident proof? I think not. My method has worked to keep me accident free thus far, but the ONLY indication that my method works is that fact. Who's to say the right set of circumstances won't prove my method to have some flaws, possibly fatal ones? Nobody.
I may encounter those circumstances today with my fire crew, or I may never, either way there is no proof that I won't forget something or assume something to be safe (for years) which is not, and thus further habituate myself into thinking I am doing my best to cover all the bases... until one day I'm proven wrong.
Nor is there any proof that any of your methods will, with certainty, preclude a gear-up.
stl