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Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 12:33 pm
by Brick Head
teacher wrote: The CPA over payment (as some would claim) is but a minor dent in ACs cash flow but as it's seen time and time again, it's an easy target for pilots to complain about.
Don't confuse the margin on the CPA, as being the only place AC eyes savings. Yes the margin isn't all that high anymore after the 25% reduction. The margin is paid above and beyond Jazz's cost to produce the product. They add the two together to get a rate. This is a normal practice for CPA's.

So very very simply put, Jazz's CASM + Margin = rate. Margin is not the only place to find savings.

To illustrate it another way.

Take the total amount of ASM's Jazz operates for AC.

Remove two of the zero's at the end.

The resulting number represents the cost, or savings to AC, for every one cent change in CASM for regional feed, they can wring out.

Put another way, every penny/ASM change, represents 10million dollars/1 billion ASM's.

How many billions of regional feed ASM's does AC contract out every year?

5 billion roughly to Jazz alone? That represents 50million/annum for every penny of CASM Jazz is above, what a CPA competitor could, or would, provide to AC.

Still think it is peanuts? Still think AC doesn't have massive motivation?

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 1:01 pm
by Localizer
Brick Head wrote:Still think it is peanuts? Still think AC doesn't have massive motivation?
AC created the CPA ... They should have created a CPA that worked for them in the beginning, when they knew they'd divest the stock. But instead, greed and manipulation took the lead and now the employee groups are left holding the bag .. again. Fool us once, shame on you .. fool us twice shame on us.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 5:57 pm
by countryhick
In addition to establishing the annual minimum number of Block Hours on which the MADUG is based, the CPA Amending Agreement provides Air Canada with the right to revise the MADUG effective in January 2016 in the event Air Canada’s domestic market share for the twelve month period from October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015 has decreased by a fixed percentage compared to its domestic market share for the twelve month period from August 1, 2008 to July 31, 2009

I would suggest that if this in fact occurs, Air Canada will have much bigger worries than revising the CPA with Jazz.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 6:32 pm
by mattedfred
I was just wondering if any ACPA members think that our industry would be better served if ACPA agreed to renegotiate their scope language to allow someone other than AC or JALP to provide lift out of CYTZ?

I was also wondering if any ACPA members could explain why they feel that the Small Jets Agreement was worth fighting for if they are now considering renegotiating their scope language to allow someone other than AC or JALP to provide lift out of CYTZ?

Is this an anyone but JALP type of thing?

Do you really think that you would be better off if WestJet, Transat, Sunwing or CanJet was awarded the TC contract?

Do you really think that you would be better off if someone other than JALP provided your lift out if CYTZ?

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:55 am
by Brick Head
And do you think this industry would be better served when, not if, when Jazz holds AC hostage for every drop of blood they can siphon off during CPA renewal time because there are the only game in town?

This isn't that easy is it?

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:10 am
by Brick Head
countryhick wrote:
I would suggest that if this in fact occurs, Air Canada will have much bigger worries than revising the CPA with Jazz.
Countryhick,

Westjet still has a lot of aircraft on order. There are a lot of areas WJ really hasn't made its presence felt, as of yet east of YYZ, even 10 years after the merger of AC and Canadian. Royal, C3, Canjet, Jetsgo all made that jump harder. Since this article Mr. Saretsky has stated it is going to be addressed. I think he even used the word it is an embarrassment.


Westjet Closing the Gap

TRANSPORTATION REPORTER

Sean Durfy believes WestJet Airlines Ltd. is on pace to challenge Air Canada for the lead in domestic market share four years from now, likening the Calgary-based carrier to a long-distance speed skater who gradually closes in on the favoured rival.

"We're narrowing the gap. It's more of a 5,000-metre event rather than a 500-metre event," said Mr. Durfy, WestJet's chief executive officer.

By the time the next Winter Olympic Games roll around in 2014, WestJet could be nipping at the heels of Air Canada, he predicted.

At the end of December, WestJet had a domestic market share of 38 per cent, compared with 36 per cent at the end of 2008, Mr. Durfy said in an interview yesterday, basing his figures on revenue passenger miles, a key measure of airline traffic.

While he declined to estimate his rival's share, industry experts say Air Canada's piece of the domestic market stood at 55 per cent at the end of 2009, down from 57 per cent a year earlier.

"We're targeting gaining a point or two every year, so to get to 39 or 40 per cent in late 2010 would be fantastic for us," Mr. Durfy said.

If all goes well for WestJet, the carrier will have roughly 45 per cent of the Canadian scheduled airline market in 2014. Toronto-based Porter Airlines Inc. plans to continue its expansion, solidifying its spot in third place, albeit a long way back from Canada's two largest carriers.

A decade ago, after acquiring Canadian Airlines International Ltd., Montreal-based Air Canada commanded 77 per cent of the domestic market while WestJet held just 7 per cent.

Founded in 1996, WestJet didn't fly east of Manitoba until 2000.

WestJet has grown steadily from Vancouver Island to Newfoundland in recent years, as Air Canada shifted its attention to U.S. and overseas flights because, historically, long-haul routes carry the highest profit margins.

WestJet announced yesterday that its 2009 profit fell 45 per cent to $98.2-million. Its fourth-quarter profit declined 52 per cent to $20.2-million, but given last year's recession and glitches with a new computer reservations system, the carrier's executives said they were proud to have posted the 19th consecutive quarter of profit.

Versant Partners Inc. analyst Cameron Doerksen said it's realistic for WestJet to set its sights on Air Canada's No. 1 position domestically.

WestJet will benefit from international partnerships, attracting connecting passengers, though some pacts will take longer than expected to come to fruition. An alliance with Dallas-based Southwest Airlines Co., originally slated to take effect in 2009 or 2010, has been rescheduled for launch in 2011.

Mr. Doerksen said WestJet will be limited in Canada at some point with its fleet of Boeing 737 jets, unless it orders aircraft better suited to serving smaller Canadian cities such as Regina. Air Canada has an advantage because it offers flights through its Jazz affiliate, which operates regional jets and turboprops.

"If WestJet does want to tap into the traffic coming from some of these smaller cities, they will have to get smaller aircraft into their fleet or get a partnership going," Mr. Doerksen said.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:32 am
by teacher
Brick Head wrote:And do you think this industry would be better served when, not if, when Jazz holds AC hostage for every drop of blood they can siphon off during CPA renewal time because there are the only game in town?

This isn't that easy is it?
I do not support this however your arguement can be easily countered by asking you if mainline would be better served by transfering the EMB and perhaps the entire domestic or short haul market to a lower cost partner company like say, Jazz? That's the problem with this situation, where does it stop? I've said it a million times and I'll say it again, AC would not be in this deal if it were not making them a profit.

Jazz wasn't the only game in town until AC created it (I know it's more complicated than that).

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:07 am
by Dark Helmet
Brick Head wrote:And do you think this industry would be better served when, not if, when Jazz holds AC hostage for every drop of blood they can siphon off during CPA renewal time because there are the only game in town?

This isn't that easy is it?
I kind of works both ways. AC can hold Jazz hostage as well because right now AC is a large customer of Jazz and it has been bacuse of this good deal CPA.

Should this CPA become even more sour, Jazz will continue to grow outside of the CPA and thus compete against AC even more.

Questions is, Would AC rather work with Jazz or against Jazz, and vice versa.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:36 am
by countryhick
Westjet still has a lot of aircraft on order. There are a lot of areas WJ really hasn't made its presence felt, as of yet east of YYZ, even 10 years after the merger of AC and Canadian. Royal, C3, Canjet, Jetsgo all made that jump harder. Since this article Mr. Saretsky has stated it is going to be addressed. I think he even used the word it is an embarrassment.

This is exactly my point. If market share gets to the trigger point for this clause, AC has far bigger problems than renegotiating a small decrease in the margins it pays its CPA provider.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:36 am
by Brick Head
Dark Helmet wrote:
Questions is, Would AC rather work with Jazz or against Jazz, and vice versa.
Jazz will expand outside of the CPA regardless of its relationship with AC.
countryhick wrote: This is exactly my point. If market share gets to the trigger point for this clause, AC has far bigger problems than renegotiating a small decrease in the margins it pays its CPA provider.
:rolleyes:

countryhick,

Go back and read the top post in this page. By changing CPA providers, AC is not targeting margins. They are targeting the CASM of the CPA providers that provide feed for savings. Your right, the savings from squeezing margins is chicken scratch in comparison.

I think we should just let this die here. I was only trying to point out two things. Motive on the part of AC, and consequences for and against. That is it.

I don't have the answer. Only concerns.

At the moment everyone has taken a step back. Nothing is decided or done. Definitely some careful thought needs to be put into what we agree too.

That is happening.

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:42 pm
by mattedfred
Brick Head wrote:And do you think this industry would be better served when, not if, when Jazz holds AC hostage for every drop of blood they can siphon off during CPA renewal time because there are the only game in town?

This isn't that easy is it?
i'm surprised that you feel that a subcontractor could hold so much power when 98% of their revenue comes from a single source

Re: Porters Real reason for existance

Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:28 pm
by Localizer
Mattedfred wrote:i'm surprised that you feel that a subcontractor could hold so much power when 98% of their revenue comes from a single source
Maybe Brick Head is working?? ..