Pilot Shortage and Statistics

[Big Pistons Forever]

I think what you are seeing is airlines using the excuse of a pilot shortage to get out of unprofitable contracts for the smallest regional jets. There is no way they are going to parking any jets with 70 or more seats, and there are still routes that only work with 50 seaters.

There is no regional pilot shortage in the US, just a shortage of pilots who are willing to work for the wages on offer. The inevitable result will be wages will increase as it is going to be cheaper to pay a little more to crew airplanes than have the larger jets sit.

It sure will be nice to see capitalism theory work for pilots instead of against them.

[sanjet]

So, if the Regional carrier reduces its fleet the Mainline carrier has to continue offering the services, assuming they're profitable? What? Like replace the Embraers with B737s? That doesn't make sense. Any money the route might make with regional jets would evaporate with a Boeing. That's why you have regional jets.
To blame pilot shortages for route cuts seems to be a factual reality. (American Eagle offering a $5,000.00 signing bonus for new hires must have nothing to do with a pilot shortage)
The airline industry sounded the alarm on this when the 1500 hour requirement was simply a proposal.
Remember the pilot naysayers who said the pilot shortage was a myth???

I guess the route cuts being blamed on a pilot shortage is a myth too, huh?
Please. Pay attention.

Gino Under

There are plenty of 1500 hour pilots willing to work, just none that are are willing to work at those conditions. The 250 hour puppy mill scheme is now illegal "unfortunately" at those places. I can assure you, large corporations and lobbyists will spin it this on pilot shortage, these cuts were planned months ago, just happened to be good timing. Raising conditions to "liveable" at these airlines might make them unprofitable.

As big piston said: its time to pony up $$$ if there is indeed a shortage of people willing to work for these regionals. If the law of supply and demand means paying more expensive fares on these "non-profitable" routes to attract pilots, I guess its time!

[Big Pistons Forever]

Raising conditions to "liveable" at these airlines might make them unprofitable.

Fuel and aircraft lease cost are by far the big driver of profitability. Pilot wages are typically 4 to 7 % of total costs. Decent wages raises that by maybe two percentage points, so it is hard to see how it will be a game changer, except to executive bonuses for airline execs who can't plan ahead.

[airboy1]

I still tell any future wannabe pilot to stay in school and choose another career path. Thanks to my side business that succeeded, I can financially be comfortable and still work in this industry. Who the hell wants to commute or live in a crash pad somewhere around Canada just to earn 40-60k staying 20 days a month away from family for first 5-6 year in large airline, not knowing where that airline might go financially. Screw this industry. I think a lot of smart people realised that too. I don't think we'll be too far behind a shortage too.

[airboy1]

Raising conditions to "liveable" at these airlines might make them unprofitable.

Fuel and aircraft lease cost are by far the big driver of profitability. Pilot wages are typically 4 to 7 % of total costs. Decent wages raises that by maybe two percentage points, so it is hard to see how it will be a game changer, except to executive bonuses for airline execs who can't plan ahead.

Hey it worked on the larger airlines here in Canada!

[rudder]

This debate about regional pilot wages and profitability is ridiculous.

Since merger mania took place in the US, pilot pay at the majors has increased by leaps and bounds. And guess what - their employers are declaring record profits!

The whole CPA feeding frenzy and lowest bidder/lowest quality environment has created the illusion that regional pilot wages make or break the business. It is a false truth that must come to an end.

Hopefully the evolving reality that commercial pilots are a limited commodity will break this cycle.

[Gino Under]

Airline profits
Good times for the airline industry
The Economist
Dec 27th 2013, 11:22 by N.B. | WASHINGTON, DC


THE much-maligned airline industry is in the middle of a resurgence—according to the airline industry itself. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade group for the world's biggest airlines, said this month that it expects industry profits to hit a record $19.7 billion in 2014, an increase of more than 50% on the $12.9 billion estimate made for 2013.

Driving the trend, IATA says, are "improvements to the industry’s structure" (read: big airline mergers) and lower jet-fuel prices. Jet fuel is the single largest expense for airlines, so if its price falls, their profits generally rise. Still, airlines' industry-wide net profit margins are not big: 1.8% of revenues in 2013, with 2.6% of revenues expected for next year. And getting fuel out of the ground and then refining and selling it remains a far more profitable business than flying planes: a single oil company, Exxon Mobil, makes more money than the entire global airline industry combined.

Despite the headline number, the airline business remains vulnerable—to oil-price shocks, accidents and terrorism. And profit per passenger is nothing to shout about. IATA expects it to be less than $6 in 2014. Considering the headwinds airlines have faced in recent years, their increasing profitability is quite an accomplishment. Much of the change, though, has quite literally been at passengers' expense. The capacity cuts, amenity cuts and fare hikes that have supported the airlines' resurgence can hurt travellers' bottom lines. Business travellers peering excitedly into the new year would like to see a balance: an airline industry that's healthy enough to avoid government intervention or widespread bankruptcy, but competitive enough to keep ticket prices low and service expectations high. Let's aim for that.


So,
if 2014 presents the industry with only a potential profit of 2.6%, it's in trouble. I don't think most airlines are going to give 1 or 2% of that profit away in pilot wages. Great if they do but I won't hold my breath.

Gino

[nortont]

http://worldairlinenews.com/2014/02/13/ ... f-envoy-2/



Read the full story link...

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/airl ... estion.ece

[Big Pistons Forever]

Lets see AA's plan is to give all the new jets to the airline with the worst WAWCON's in the industry and which already is having significant difficulty crewing the aircraft it already has. What could possibly go wrong ?

[Gino Under]

It's refreshing to see a pilot group FINALLY stand up to airline management (even at the cost of shutting down their airline) by sticking together. Especially the part where they ask for a shutdown schedule.
Now that's pilot power.

Gino

[sstaurus]

Good for them! AA is just a bully using fear-mongering to get their way. I hope they can't find anyone to do their dirty work for scraps.

[Old fella]

Correct me if I am wrong but I get the impression that commuter flying jobs in the ole US of A are terrible, not worth a f----

[Gino Under]

American to look beyond Envoy for an E-175 operator

By: EDWARD RUSSELLWASHINGTON DC20:02 13 Feb 2014

American Airlines Group will begin searching for a regional carrier to operate the 60 Embraer 175s that it has on order, following the rejection of an agreement in principle to operate the aircraft by the pilot’s union at its regional subsidiary Envoy.

The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) American Eagle – soon to be renamed Envoy – master executive council rejected the 10-year agreement in a vote late on 12 February, according to a statement. The agreement included 90 E-175s, a minimum operating fleet of 170 aircraft and improved flow through options to mainline in exchange for a pilot pay freeze through 2018 at the regional carrier.

“The vote today was about the future of our pilots’ pay and working conditions,” says captain William Sprague, chairman of the American Eagle master executive council, in a statement. “Our elected representatives agreed that this new round of concessions was asking too much of a pilot group that has already given up previously agreed-to contractual work rules and benefits in order to ensure American Eagle’s solvency.”

He adds that the pilots union agreed to concessions with Envoy during American’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganisation.

American exited bankruptcy and merged with US Airways on 9 December 2013.

Pedro Fábregas, president and chief executive Envoy, says he is “extremely disappointed” with ALPA’s decision, in a letter to employees today.

“American has now informed us they have no choice but to begin looking for another regional carrier or carriers to operate their E-175s,” he says. “American can’t wait any longer and will begin these efforts immediately.”

The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier has a firm order for 60 E-175s and options for 30 more, with deliveries scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2015.

American will begin to shrink Envoy’s fleet and staff as a result of the rejection by ALPA, says Fábregas. Initially, this will involve the removal of the airline’s smaller aircraft.

The smallest aircraft in Envoy’s fleet is the 44-seat Embraer ERJ-140. It operates 59 of the type, Flightglobal’s Ascend Online database shows.

American disclosed plans to remove at least 10 of these aircraft in 2014, in a January investor update.

The mainline carrier could also seek a new operator for the 47 Bombardier CRJ700s in the Envoy fleet, says Fábregas.

“I have no reason to believe American will offer us new large regional jet flying after these unsuccessful negotiations,” he says.

Envoy's ground handling business will continue to grow even as its fleet shrinks, adds Fabregas.

American-subsidiary PSA Airlines agreed to a lower pay scale in exchange for at least 30 Bombardier CRJ900 aircraft in September 2013. The aircraft were first offered to Envoy but union leaders rejected that offer, citing an unacceptable B scale, as well.

The decision by the ALPA American Eagle master executive committee comes as there is increasing concern in the USA about pilot staffing at regional carriers and the pay rates that these airlines offer them.

[TrailerParkBoy]

Cut and paste Air Canada over American Airlines and Jazz over Envoy and voila...the endgame for Jazz in 2015!

[Gilles Hudicourt]

Edit:

this was off topic so I send the content of the post that was here into a new thread.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=94827&p=864860#p864860

[Gino Under]

Well, in the 60s, 70s and early 80s we had "smaller airlines that would fly their own passengers".
CP Air and Air Canada put an end to that through acquisitions. so, how will this re-jigged airline industry work?
When pilots decide for themselves NOT to accept a sh*t job for what it is, the idea of small, cheep, slit throat operators will shrivel up and disappear.

But FIRST, pilots have to learn to recognize those operators. That hasn't happened yet, unfortunately. The sad thing is, most pilots know this already.

Gino Under

[Rumors]

What are people's thoughts on Eagle/Envoy turning this down. Is American bluffing are they really gonna be able to find an operator to do that much work?

[nortont]

http://www.pilotcareercentre.com/Aviati ... s+Model%27

[Gino Under]

American airlines are nothing more than a broken business model.
Count the Chapter 11 filings since 1980. The mergers or the bankruptcies. They are anything BUT an example of a successful business model. They're a joke and you can start with Frank Lorenzo if you like?
As for the Regional Airlines, the mainline "sugar daddy" isn't interested anymore and junior needs a reality check.
Alliances are finished or damned near defunct. No more empty seats being paid for in full by the mainlines.
Gone, gone, gone.
It's a new day for American, United and Delta. Anyone hoping to get in on the action had better bend over and get ready for a lot of pain for their ain't no Vaseline to go with it.
While I believe there is a pilot shortage, if the pilots who've walked away, fallen out of recency, etc., were to be factored into the equation....
NO, there's no pilot shortage.

It all depends how you want to look at it.

Gino Under

[mbav8r]

https://my.news.yahoo.com/japan-budget- ... nance.html

[digits_]

https://my.news.yahoo.com/japan-budget- ... nance.html

So is this the real reason or some excuse to cover up airplane problems / financial problems / low passenger numbers / ... ?

[scopiton]

Who cares ?
Just follow the money :
http://www.pilotcareercentre.com/Pilot- ... o+Aviation

[BE20 Driver]

You can only follow the money if you have PIC on type.