F-35 looking more like white elephant

[Colonel Sanders]

the carnage of World War One

Actually, more people died during the outbreak of Spanish Influenza
of 1919, than during all of World War One. Don't get angry at the
Spanish about it, ok?

PS Food for thought. In the 1960's, when my father used to go down to Palmdale to pick up new two-seat F-104D's from Lockheed, the RCAF paid

$1.3 million

for each airframe, sitting on the ramp, and the warranty expired at the end of the runway on takeoff.

Not 1.3 BILLION. Not even 130 MILLION, which would be a wet dream price for an F-35 airframe, sitting on the ramp.

Correcting for inflation (factor 7.44) that's:

1.3 x 7.44 = $9.7 million

That's not even 13 million dollars of today's money for a new F-104D.

Just sayin',

[Rockie]

It didn't bring them down last election because they were saying it cost half the price it (as far as we know) will cost currently. The general public took their word for it. Heck, even Aux Bat did and tried his Jedi mind trick earlier in this thread to make us believe it too. Those of us more savvy in aviation know there are only three types of figures: over-budget, ridiculously over-budget, and ludicrously over-budget.

Don't forget that election was triggered in the first place when the Conservatives were found in contempt of parliament for refusing to provide cost figures for their planned corporate tax cuts, crime bill and F-35's. Their deceit/incompetence (whatever your chosen poison) was there for all to see at the time, and it's more an indictment of our stupidity as voters that we not only re-elected these clowns but gave them a majority.

They are an unmitigated disaster for this country and although the fighter fiasco may fade in memory by the next opportunity to rid ourselves of Harper, the crime bill costs will start to be known which will undoubtedly continue to feed the fire. Hopefully the opposition will get their pathetic act together in time but I'm not holding my breath.

[Beefitarian]

Couldn't we build new 104s for less than 9.7 million dollars?

[BverLuver]

Rockie, Do you really buy into all those political games the parties play, such as contempt of parliament? The election was "triggered" by such tactics, the people of Canada had enough of the games and WE elected a Majority government.

You really lead a tortured life eh. Your contempt and hatred for anything that does not fit your ideologue is fantastic to watch but without substance.

BL

[Beefitarian]

Politics ugh. Fine then I'll post one about that election. The only thing worse than the so called PC party is the Liberals. When they caused that bologna sandwich election I almost voted PC myself.

No wonder the PCs won a majority. Anyone surprised by that is pretty out of it.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The end game is at hand. Harper is on record that the 9 Billion is a hard cap. There is no way he can buy 65 airframes for that money so he needs a credible non conservative aligned party to come out and say that. That is why he created the arms length Deputy Ministers committee. They will "research" the issue and in about a year say that the F 35 is a great airplane but Canada can't afford them. Harper can then say, "I wanted to buy them but the experts say we can't so very reluctantly I am forced to restart the process".

I had a front row seat in the Ottawa trenches and know how the game is played. It is all about saving political face. The F 35 file has turned into a political liability so the actual Military merits of the aircraft are now irrelevant.

[Beefitarian]

65 why would they buy so many?

[Rockie]

Rockie, Do you really buy into all those political games the parties play, such as contempt of parliament? The election was "triggered" by such tactics, the people of Canada had enough of the games and WE elected a Majority government.

You really lead a tortured life eh. Your contempt and hatred for anything that does not fit your ideologue is fantastic to watch but without substance.

BL

The fact is a majority of elected members of parliament representing the majority of Canadians required answers to serious financial questions regarding public funds from a minority government, and the conservatives refused to provide them. Hence the contempt of parliament.

It's called democracy.

Read up on it sometime.

Your defense of the conservatives by calling those questions "ideological" in the face of recently exposed facts is comical. So is your apparent blindness to the extreme "ideology" and out of control partisanship of your hero.

[MUSKEG]

I have to wonder Rockie just who your hero would be. Might it be Chretian whose government was constantly in scandal or perhaps it is the NDP who can promise the moon knowing full well they will never have to deliver. Or perhaps it's Stalin or Hitler who with an iron fist killed some 50 million who didn't think like they did. I am not so naive as to believe I know the inside workings of government and unless you have been there I'm sure you don't either. But puff away, your color comes through brilliantly. Nothing or nobody is perfect but we are a lot closer to acceptable than we have been in a long time. Fire away. Maybe use red text.

[iflyforpie]

So far, we received almost double what we invested in the JSF program since 1997 in industrial benefits.

Which has very little to do with whether we actually buy the aircraft or not. Years ago, I put some of WestJet's first losses directly into my pocket. Good for me? Yes. Good for the company and the shareholders? No. 

What do you include in the price? Over what period of time? When we speak only in term of airframes and engines (acquisition costs), 75M is still pretty close to the reality. It doesn't take too much research to find that out. Australia and Norway continue to think they'll pay something close to that.

And Japan and Israel think it is going to be more. 

You can't just look at cost but cost/benefit. 

This is where I see the F-35 going horribly wrong:

-We have no idea what the final airframe cost is going to be. Many of the systems aren't fully tested and we have no idea what fixes will add to the program costs  We don't know when it will be declared operational, and anything from currency fluctuations to inflation could have a radical effect on figures.  We don't know how many are going to be produced overall either. Defense contracts are based on cost-plus-fee, completely unlike commercial aircraft development. If the US decides to significantly cut the number of aircraft they procure (completely foreseeable) the per unit cost will go up. Lockheed sure isn't going to absorb the losses, and I don't think that Uncle Sam in the current financial environment is going to be too generous with absorbing the added costs. See the F-22 or B-2 program if you want to look at flyaway costs verses total cost per aircraft.  We are not going to see a program like the F-4, A-4, F-16, or F-18 with a long production run and thousands of airframes.

-We have no idea what the per hour maintenance costs are going to be. Again, using the example of the F-22, they look like they are going to be anything but cheap. Not only that, they are going to directly affect dispatch reliability and airframe availability. F-22 pilots simply cannot get the required time on type because of ongoing maintenance issues. This is the US. How do you think it is going to be for Canada with half the number of airframes?

-What do we need a so-called 'fifth generation' aircraft for anyways?  According to some sources, this whole 'generation' thing was invented purely to justify and sell jet fighters. The history of such shenanigans is as old as the jet fighter itself, starting from convincing Hitler to acquire the 262 on the basis of it being a bomber. Canada has never been the first into enemy airspace, has never done SEAD, and score the last aerial victory flying its own aircraft in WWII... why do we need stealth?  Don't say because their is some super secret mission the RCAF is going to fly. Julian Assange released a bunch of secret papers on Canada, but nobody could get through them without being bored to sleep (sorry for the irrelevancy, but it was just too good to leave out). We have poster pictures of CF-18s shadowing Bears just to prove the RCAF actually does something to protect our airspace.... throw us taxpayers another bone to prove you need it. Interoperability can be achieved with the Super Hornet or Eurofighter. The Americans didn't feel the need to send the F-22 to Libya, why should we be worried?  The Americans can afford an expensive fleet-in-being; we can't. 


-We are getting to the end of policing the world with the Americans. China is putting them on notice and holding their purse strings. We are ending wars to most likely have the countries revert back to the way they were or worse. We have a Cold War anachronism NATO trying to justify its existence doing things it was never intended to do. And we have an ever increasing risk of asymmetrical blowback the more we run and play with the Yanks. We are also sitting on a ton of natural resources with an increasingly hungry and powerful emerging world. To me, that says a fighter to protect our own airspace is more important. Twin engines, less emphasis on stealth, more emphasis on sheer numbers, and complimented by an anti air defense that would make it difficult for others aircraft to come here. Let them spend their treasuries dry trying to get around our defenses, not the other way around. I have a feeling that in the new world a healthy bank account is going to be more important than a fleet of fighters.  65 ain't going to mean diddly if a real air force comes knocking on our door...

[BverLuver]

Rockie,
So after the "contempt" the general public got tired of the games and took away the PC minority and instead, democratically, voted in a PC Majority. I guess the constituents don't really always think the way the politicians do, but the voters are all idiots because they don't think like you right?

Unlike yourself Rockie, I am a realist, not an idealist. I see a problem and fix it. I don't look at a problem, whine about how it was unfair that people are making decisions that I don't like then accuse everyone of being "comical" and "blind" because we don't share your sentiments. The issue is no longer "why is this government in power", it's what needs to be done in the best interest of the country. Guess what, you and many of us have very different ideas on what the correct direction is, but whining like a little girl about everything that is not a socialists agenda solves nothing. In fact, it is so repetitive and predictable! Why don't you try to come up with something new for a change?

Back on topic, the CBC (very biased) had an article recently that says McKay knew about the $10b extra cost expenditures above the original price tags, as much as a year ago. Do I think this is right? Nope! Do I think he should answer the critics on this issue? Absolutely! Sould he face repercussions? Of course if it is found that he misled us regarding the F35's!

BL

[frosti]

We are not going to see a program like the F-4, A-4, F-16, or F-18 with a long production run and thousands of airframes.

Is that what your crystal ball says? F-35's will replace the F-15, F-16 and F-18's, not with hundreds, but thousands of F-35s'. The old 4th gens won't fly forever and there is nothing on the horizon as an alternative to the F35.

How do you think it is going to be for Canada with half the number of airframes?

That is why we have budgets. What do you think is cheaper, maintaining brand new F-35s that went through a decade of testing or keeping 35 year old jets flying with constant maintenance.

What do we need a so-called 'fifth generation' aircraft for anyways?

That has been answered numerous times already in this thread. There are tones of resources available as well on the web. Also, the reason the F-22 wasn't sent to Libya is because it wasn't needed for that particular mission, not because it's not needed as a whole.

 65 ain't going to mean diddly if a real air force comes knocking on our door...

Sounds good, lets buy twice the amount for twice the price. We should also increase our defence spending to that of our NATO partners at 4% of our GDP. Also, if a "real" air force comes knocking on our door it means Canada is already a nuclear wasteland.

[CD]

No wonder the PCs won a majority...

Just as an aside, and I see a few folks have made the same error, it might help if you had the correct politial party name... The Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (PC) ceased to exist on December 7th, 2003, when the Canadian Alliance bought the name and rebranded themselves as the Conservative Party of Canada.

[azimuthaviation]

there is nothing on the horizon as an alternative to the F35.

How far on the horizon are you looking? The South Koreans, Chinese, Indians, and Russians will be producing comparable if not superior machines in less than a decade.

[MUSKEG]

I imagine that the design on something new is already well on its way so the thought that in ten years the Russians anf Chinese will have something comparable to offer is flawed. Not saying they can't catch up but it will be very very difficult.

[frosti]

there is nothing on the horizon as an alternative to the F35.

How far on the horizon are you looking? The South Koreans, Chinese, Indians, and Russians will be producing comparable if not superior machines in less than a decade.

South Koreans? No, they are buying F35's. Chinese? Their one flying toy hasn't proven anything yet. The Indians and Russians are involved in the Pakfa program which is having its own issues with cracks in the tail structure during early testing. I was referring more towards no alternative for western nations. You would have to be a complete idiot to buy something other than an American product (or European if they ever make something 5th gen+ after the typhoon). Right now there is no alternative to the F35 unless you want to keep your old outdated airframes airworthy or buy new, obsolete equipment. It's like walking into a Chevy dealership today and asking them to make you a new, 2003 Corvette. Stupid.

[Beefitarian]

It's like walking into a Chevy dealership today and asking them to make you a new, 2003 Corvette. Stupid.

Yeah that does sound dumb. Especially when you could get one of these!

[azimuthaviation]

Oh i wouldnt be too dismissive of non American technology. If it was the 60's I would agree with you. Even if it was the 90's I might. In 1990 nobody would have thought Lexus would be competing with German luxury cars but they are. In 1990 who would have thought that Hyundai, a twenty-year-old company would be competing toe to toe with the big boys and confident enough to make a second company to build second tier automobiles, that have become common on North American roads.

Not saying they can't catch up but it will be very very difficult.

You might be surprised how fast things get done when the employees dont take a twenty minute break every two hours, leave for a smoke every 45 minutes, have a union that seems to basically try to get the least amount of work from the worker for the most amount of money, come in hung over three times a week, and when they know theres universities putting out thousands of highly ambitious and talented students who could step right into their job given the opportunity.

[azimuthaviation]

It's like walking into a Chevy dealership today and asking them to make you a new, 2003 Corvette. Stupid.

Not quite. As far as capabilities have come, the technology involved has pretty well plateaued 30 years ago. Blackhawks, the space shuttle, GPS, solid state avionics, F-16's, F-15's, are all 70's and 80's technology and nothing has come since then thats blown them out of the water, basically minor improvements that take forever to become implemented and always problematic (think WAAS, LAAS, composites...) Meanwhile what major improvements in speed, maneuverability, altitude, climb rate, range, have been made in the last 35 years? Pretty minor (or as TC likes to say, not major) especially compared to the improvements made in the 35 years prior to that era.

[Rockie]

I have to wonder Rockie just who your hero would be. Might it be Chretian whose government was constantly in scandal or perhaps it is the NDP who can promise the moon knowing full well they will never have to deliver. Or perhaps it's Stalin or Hitler who with an iron fist killed some 50 million who didn't think like they did.

You forgot to mention I'm also unpatriotic and support child pornographers.

As far as heroes go I don't have any, but I certainly believe Kevin Page and the Auditor General deserve gold stars. In a politician I'd be happy with anyone who's competent, responsible, ethical, and doesn't let brainless ideology get in the way of capable leadership. I can't say I've seen anybody like that yet from any political party.

Unlike yourself Rockie, I am a realist, not an idealist. I see a problem and fix it.

Kevin Page is a realist and I listened to what he was saying while the conservatives were dragging his name and reputation through the mud. Where were you?

I was also very interested in how much the conservative's crime bill is "realistically" going to cost us. I don't recall you being concerned.

You a realist? I don't think so.

[Beefitarian]

So hyundai cars are the same as they were 30 years ago?

[frosti]

So hyundai cars are the same as they were 30 years ago?

...and just as capable with a few minor upgrades.

[Beefitarian]

So hyundai cars are the same as they were 30 years ago?

...and just as capable with a few minor upgrades.

Meanwhile what major improvements in speed, maneuverability, range, have been made in the last 35 years?

[azimuthaviation]

There werent Hyundai cars 30 years ago, at least not in Canada, and Lexus was still a twinkle in the founders eye. Technology in automobiles havent plateaued in the last 30 years by any means. Fuel injection, ABS, OBD, OBDII, air bags, electronic ignition, new engines, new transmissions, much higher effiviency, new fuels... Comparing a 30 year old airplane to a 30 year old car isnt fair. A much closer analogy would be comparing a new house to a 30 year old house. Changes, yes. Improvements, maybe. Huge difference in quality buying a 30 year old house compared to a brand one, not so much.

[frosti]

So hyundai cars are the same as they were 30 years ago?

...and just as capable with a few minor upgrades.

Meanwhile what major improvements in speed, maneuverability, range, have been made in the last 35 years?

Take a new F-16A fresh off the factory floor and have it "fight" against a new F-22 or even a F35 off the factory floor. It would be a slaughter. As far as range, fighters were never designed to be economical, they designed AAR for a reason. You want economy, take a bus.