IMC- root cause of an accident?

[Strega]

The other thread got me thinking...

How many accidents (in Canada) does IMC cause? Im not talking about spatial disorientation, but rather icing, or carb icing ect.

I havent looked at any of the data yet, but I would guess that running out of gas, statistically is much more of an issue..


S

[Shiny Side Up]

Running out of gas has always been the largest share of enroute phase accidents. I think landings are still #1 overall.

That said, from the NTSB website, 250 accidents from 2001 to 2011 have been attributed to carb icing. Roughly 2 a year, not an small number. It does not however divide those up into what types of flying is being done on those flights. One can suppose one's own conclusions though, that carb ice is more likely to happen under certain conditions.

Airframe icing accidents are far more numerous with the sample size over a twenty year period attributing it to 819 accidents. Most of those (81%) being in GA type aircraft.

Both sources from the pdfs, easily googleable.

[CpnCrunch]

Aren't the carb icing accidents mostly from either pilots not applying the carb heat, or the carb heat not working properly? (And I guess carb heat not working properly implies that the pilot didn't check it properly before takeoff).

[Rookie50]

Root cause of accidents in my book would be having the wrong attitude about risk management in flying, (such as advocating new IFR pilots routinely shoot night / minimum approaches at night in basic 172's, perhaps)

In other words -- having less than a conservative approach.

My $0.02

[Shiny Side Up]

Aren't the carb icing accidents mostly from either pilots not applying the carb heat, or the carb heat not working properly? (And I guess carb heat not working properly implies that the pilot didn't check it properly before takeoff).

The report didn't have a breakdown, but i'd be inclined to agree that most carb icing accidents, regardless of IFR or VFR are most likely the result of pilots mismanaging how to deal with it. That said, I have encountered situations where the carb heat system isn't adequate to combat the problem, which results in partial losses of power even when it is managed. Also, I doubt that in the numbers of carb ice related accidents they include accidents where a lack of power due to running the carb heat on, was a contributing factor. I do recall a few where it was mentioned mostly take off accidents, but a couple CFIT accidents where lack of climb performance with carb heat on was listed as a factor.

[Rookie50]

So climbing with cruise power in night rainy IMC with full carb heat in a 172 is not a great plan although promoted here as the standard to follow?

Let's examine it again boys and girls -- for the standard in stupidity on what NOT to do.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QaZC-kl_at0

[Strega]

So climbing with cruise power in night rainy IMC with full carb heat in a 172 is not a great plan although promoted here as the standard to follow?

Let's examine it again boys and girls -- for the standard in stupidity on what NOT to do.

What is exactly so dangerous? What makes this any more dangerous than flying at night over featureless terrain?

FYI I was flying in a helicopter yesterday in rain, just above freezeing temps, and gasp... the engine did not ice up! (R22 with a carb)

[Rookie50]

So climbing with cruise power in night rainy IMC with full carb heat in a 172 is not a great plan although promoted here as the standard to follow?

Let's examine it again boys and girls -- for the standard in stupidity on what NOT to do.

What is exactly so dangerous? What makes this any more dangerous than flying at night over featureless terrain?

FYI I was flying in a helicopter yesterday in rain, just above freezeing temps, and gasp... the engine did not ice up! (R22 with a carb)

And you didn't try to loop it? I'm disappointed. No Mr Aviation video material there.

[Strega]

So climbing with cruise power in night rainy IMC with full carb heat in a 172 is not a great plan although promoted here as the standard to follow?

Let's examine it again boys and girls -- for the standard in stupidity on what NOT to do.

What is exactly so dangerous? What makes this any more dangerous than flying at night over featureless terrain?

FYI I was flying in a helicopter yesterday in rain, just above freezeing temps, and gasp... the engine did not ice up! (R22 with a carb)

And you didn't try to loop it? I'm disappointed. No Mr Aviation video material there.

Answer the question? What is so inherently dangerous about his video?

Comparing looping a R22 to night IFR is ridiculous ...

[Rookie50]

Come on Strega....Mr Aviation needs more material.....was the R22 at least in daylight so the fearsome rain could be captured on video?

[Strega]

Come on Strega....Mr Aviation needs more material.....was the R22 at least in daylight so the fearsome rain could be captured on video?

Interesting....

[Rookie50]

The other thread got me thinking...

How many accidents (in Canada) does IMC cause? Im not talking about spatial disorientation, but rather icing, or carb icing ect.

I havent looked at any of the data yet, but I would guess that running out of gas, statistically is much more of an issue..


S

Strega.....seriously....what is the accident correlation in SE IMC factoring equipment (the mighty 172, for example) experience (eg a newbies first time in IMC with a instructor of questionable experience) and night vs day IMC?

Simple question -- make this easy for you......

[Strega]

I dont know, I havent looked at the accident reports, I would suspect the the fact it was night, and raining have very little to do with anything though.


Answer my question please.

[Rookie50]

I dont know, I havent looked at the accident reports, I would suspect the the fact it was night, and raining have very little to do with anything though.


Answer my question please.

So you consider night IMC with precipitation no different in terms of risk factors or accident statistics than Day IMC? Make it simple. I ask the question, you offer a straight answer, cool?

[Strega]

no... night will add more risk,, just as it does when flying vmc...

FYI your airplane does not know if it is light or dark...

[B208]

What does IMC have to do with carb ice?

[Shiny Side Up]

What is exactly so dangerous? What makes this any more dangerous than flying at night over featureless terrain?

Its hard to tell how "dangerous" it is just by what the video shows. I would merely argue that the risk factor is increased, by how much is debateable. Rain, in itself isn't hazardous - depending on the amount of it of course - but its just another factor in the risk equation. Carb Icing is merely one factor that rain presents. Rain also poses the problem of reduced visibility, the usual rain associated illusions, slippery surfaces, to name a few. Couple it with darkness, those factors play together, and arguably multiply the effects. They seem like small effects to those of us with any experience, but adding low experience (two pilots it seems) you start to line up the holes in the swiss cheese. I'll also say that not all of Texas is super populated and it can be pretty dark there too. Lots of risk factors in the video that didn't seem to be a lot of thought mitigating them, which in my opinion seems to be the worst part.

Can we accept that increases in risk may not be huge, but small and incremental? Sure it would have made it even worse over somewhere else. That doesn't mean that it couldn't have been made better either.

[Strega]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gpDqzBjTuU

Man Mr Aviation has some terrible instructors...

[Rookie50]

no... night will add more risk,, just as it does when flying vmc...

FYI your airplane does not know if it is light or dark...

The pilot does.

Amazing what preventable things are blamed on innocent aircraft.

[Shiny Side Up]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gpDqzBjTuU

Man Mr Aviation has some terrible instructors...

Putting words in people's mouths again.

Was he taking off into the dark and the rain with Patty? If so she's gotten hairier and uglier. Are all the instructors we see him fly with of her experience and quality? If so, I stand corrected.

[Strega]

Putting words in people's mouths again.

???????


Did patty not sign his logbook?

[Shiny Side Up]

Did I say that he had a terrible instructor?

What's this thread about now? I thought we were talking about root causes to accidents, but now its on acro with Patty Wagstaff? Did Patty give him a lesson in IFR in that video or did I miss something?

The issue I thought you were having was about carb ice. What's your opinion on carb ice? Do you feel it is any risk?

[Strega]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gpDqzBjTuU

Man Mr Aviation has some terrible instructors...

Putting words in people's mouths again.

Was he taking off into the dark and the rain with Patty? If so she's gotten hairier and uglier. Are all the instructors we see him fly with of her experience and quality? If so, I stand corrected.

??? Where did I put words in others mouths?

Was he taking off into the dark and the rain with Patty?

I have no idea...

If so she's gotten hairier and uglier.

To each their own I guess...

Are all the instructors we see him fly with of her experience and quality? If so, I stand corrected.

Dunno... just bet though,, all of MR Aviations instructors will not split s to recover from inverted flight...

[Strega]

What's this thread about now? I thought we were talking about root causes to accidents, but now its on acro with Patty Wagstaff? Did Patty give him a lesson in IFR in that video or did I miss something?

The issue I thought you were having was about carb ice. What's your opinion on carb ice? Do you feel it is any risk?

Well, it was about IMC incidents in Canada until you started bringing the NTSB stats into it...

FYI the NTSB is an entity of the USA...

[Shiny Side Up]

I'm sorry, did you specify IMC in Canada in the opening post? My bad, I thought aviation happened south of the border too, Isn't that where Mr. Aviation is? Or are those in Ontario. You got me all confused.