Hiring Outlook

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Flash8
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Hiring Outlook

#1 Post by Flash8 » Sat May 07, 2016 12:10 pm

A question for the crystal ball:

I was just wondering what the hiring outlook was looking like for the slightly longer term; 2018/19. Do you guys think hiring will continue at its current rate with upgrades, retirements, and the new PMA? Or is there an indication that hiring will cease abruptly in the next 18 - 24 months.
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mato
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#2 Post by mato » Sat May 07, 2016 4:03 pm

I think the outlook is positive with many set to retire from Mainline in the coming years. Less predictable will be the economy and whether the seats being sold will be sustainable.

The crystal ball is any ones guess...
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fish4life
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#3 Post by fish4life » Sat May 07, 2016 5:07 pm

The only crystal ball in aviation is uncertainty, that said it follows 7 year cycles pretty religiously so if we're in a boom now 2019 will probably be a slow time
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Sky_Conqueror
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#4 Post by Sky_Conqueror » Mon May 09, 2016 8:16 pm

Its all about the math. The economy is just a small factor that is probably harmless at this point.

- The majors and regionals have, up to this point, acquired dozens of additional equipment. Aircraft deliveries are supposed to roll in at least until 2020 and beyond.

- We have come to a timeframe where all the Baby Boomer generation is retiring massively. Demographically speaking this generation is way more numerous than Generation X and Generation Y, the current Generation which is replacing the Baby Boomers. This has and is currently affecting almost every major industry in the Western World. I have heard numbers of 56 pilots and beyond to retire every year for the next 4 years. Don't quote me on the exact number, but I am aware of it being pretty high.

These two factors alone are what is causing our industry to be positive. Let us remember now that oil prices are lower, this puts less financial pressure on airlines, thus making them invest in other bilateral related sectors.

Western Canada has indeed showed a slowdown due to the oil downturn and yes it has slightly affected Westjet's development. Westjet has slightly delayed aircraft orders but has concentrated sales in Eastern Canada where things seem brighter.

But 2015/2016 have shown record seat sales in almost all airlines. Which shows that, even though our country is experiencing somewhat turbulent economic times, it has not affected expansions at all.

In conclusion, we can easily see that expansions outweigh the current economy. Unless there is a economic crash, I do not believe the ''positive rates'' of expansions will be greatly affected.
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PropToFeather
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#5 Post by PropToFeather » Tue May 10, 2016 1:50 pm

As far as I can see, the current hiring blitz is driven by the retirements of many AC Baby Boomers. Last I checked (I believe the age breakdowns are somewhere either on AC or ALPA websites), that wave should slow down by 2019-2020, after which the next big hiring/upgrading spree looks to be at Westjet closer to 2025-2030.

Now, as Sky_Conqueror said, the other part is how much big iron is being flown in Canada. That part is harder to predict, since it depends on the economy, but unless it completely poops the bed, from my lofty perch as a "less than 1 year's flying in the industry" 8), the worst case scenario looks to be about the same amount as there is out there right now (just of a slightly different mix of kinds of iron). Sky_Conqueror covered the more optimistic scenarios.
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Kosiw
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#6 Post by Kosiw » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:22 am

How long before regionals like Jazz have to start offering signing bonuses like whats happening in the states recently ??

http://atwonline.com/airlines/american- ... new-pilots
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NickyNick
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#7 Post by NickyNick » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:41 am

Kosiw wrote:How long before regionals like Jazz have to start offering signing bonuses like whats happening in the states recently ??

http://atwonline.com/airlines/american- ... new-pilots

Still many of us to get hired, I'm not going to wait for a bonus.
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#8 Post by porcsord » Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:37 pm

Right, why get more money when you could get less!
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Kosiw
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#9 Post by Kosiw » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:59 pm

Anyone from Jazz care to post a guess as to how many pilots need to be hired in the next 6-12 months and when the next bid comes out ?
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floydfrank
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#10 Post by floydfrank » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:10 pm

fish4life wrote:The only crystal ball in aviation is uncertainty, that said it follows 7 year cycles pretty religiously so if we're in a boom now 2019 will probably be a slow time
"if were in a boom now" rotfl - good one!! :rolleyes:
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bobcaygeon
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#11 Post by bobcaygeon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:35 pm

Sky_Conqueror wrote:Its all about the math. The economy is just a small factor that is probably harmless at this point.

- The majors and regionals have, up to this point, acquired dozens of additional equipment. Aircraft deliveries are supposed to roll in at least until 2020 and beyond.

In conclusion, we can easily see that expansions outweigh the current economy. Unless there is a economic crash, I do not believe the ''positive rates'' of expansions will be greatly affected.
The equipment ordered is replacement equipment not growth. Mainline WJ has little growth without tiny 767 program.

Expansion outgrowing economy never ends good. Just like early 2000's and Milton era. If Boomers aren't spending $$$ we're all screwed.
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#12 Post by Canoehead » Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:24 am

Kosiw wrote:Anyone from Jazz care to post a guess as to how many pilots need to be hired in the next 6-12 months and when the next bid comes out ?
Contractually the next bid must be published by August 15, unless there is no requirement for one.
I guarantee there will be a requirement...
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#13 Post by lazyeight » Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:42 am

I heard from a Jazz pilot that if the current roster didn't take overtime shifts they would have trouble keeping all the planes flying. He said he is called very regularly on his days off to take one or two quick legs at very good block credit.
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#14 Post by Rowdy » Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:32 pm

With the attrition to air canada and a change in the positioning of aircraft, I guarantee a sizeable bid this august. I also foresee a shift westward with those aircraft. SKR and GGN doing a lot more YYZ flying now. YYC slowed up with the economy.. and AC doing a ton of overseas flying from YVR. Any guesses on how that will play out? ;)

Also, why did they increase the YVR FA base with 40 new hires..

From my perspective we are short staffed. Ive been called for overtime on all of the days off I could legally work. All of my group of friends here echo the same sentiments. While that may simply be a tactic to eliminate the high costs of benefits paid out to a larger pilot group (each additional employee costs sig. more than throwing overtime to the current populace) there is a lot of attrition. Significant retirements and movement to AC.

There is already changes in terms of fleet size. I know they forecasted a reduction in aircraft and the threat of the 'classic' airline 'jive'. But I do not see that coming to fruition, if anything, I would imagine additional Q400's. I mean they're already taking on more CRJ's and did they not end up with the Q's that were at SKR? We all know there is heavy posturing when it comes time to collective agreement negotiations...

While there are no guarantees.. it LOOKS like we will see new hires classes every month for the next year, barring something catastrophic happening.
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skypirate88
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#15 Post by skypirate88 » Tue Jun 28, 2016 3:38 pm

I have been told 2 classes of 12 indefinitely...see if it comes true.

I recently flew with a captain who had been on the property for 2 years before the left seat. He was at the bottom of the PML list and is just waiting for a course date now.

There are certainly worse places to be right now.
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lazyeight
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#16 Post by lazyeight » Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:43 pm

@Rowdy

Yes I did hear murmurs of some new types possibly showing up in YVR soon. August bid will tell the story. They are hiring like mad right now, I know a recent hire with 1200TT and an iartra. No multi pic either... the hiring trends seem to change almost monthly.
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#17 Post by iflyroads » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:08 am

lazyeight wrote:@Rowdy

Yes I did hear murmurs of some new types possibly showing up in YVR soon. August bid will tell the story. They are hiring like mad right now, I know a recent hire with 1200TT and an iartra. No multi pic either... the hiring trends seem to change almost monthly.

yes its just the regular multi time they seem to be looking for. 500 multi or 250 multi if you are a grad from one of their accepted colleges/programs.
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#18 Post by Rowdy » Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:56 pm

skypirate88 wrote:I have been told 2 classes of 12 indefinitely...see if it comes true.

I recently flew with a captain who had been on the property for 2 years before the left seat. He was at the bottom of the PML list and is just waiting for a course date now.

There are certainly worse places to be right now.
Its been 12-16 depending on availability for courses thus far :wink:

Flown with multiple recent capt upgrades that have deferred until fall/winter. Anywhere from 2-5 years with the company. I think we're on track to surpass WJE for quick upgrades and movement to the mainline.
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Kardow
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#19 Post by Kardow » Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:41 pm

What about the hiring outlook for 2017? I've noticed that the closing date for their last pilot posting on their website was Dec 31st 2016 and they haven't put a new posting yet.

Does that mean they are done hiring for now or that they are slowing the hiring significantly (considering that they have done so much hiring during the last two years or so)?
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dhc#
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#20 Post by dhc# » Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:15 pm

Must still be hiring like mad, just look at all the ads for King Air pilots lately.

Jazz is sucking up 703/704 pilots like a vacuum cleaner.
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mbav8r
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#21 Post by mbav8r » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:42 pm

My understanding is we are hiring 300 in 2017, the portal being closed simply means they have enough applicants to interview for now. I'm sure it'll open back up soon enough
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matthew.oommen
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#22 Post by matthew.oommen » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:35 pm

mbav8r wrote:My understanding is we are hiring 300 in 2017, the portal being closed simply means they have enough applicants to interview for now. I'm sure it'll open back up soon enough

What's the average wait time after an application before you can expect to hear back?
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Kardow
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#23 Post by Kardow » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:57 pm

It took me three weeks from application to phone call.
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Topoff
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#24 Post by Topoff » Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:59 pm

Closing date in the posting was Dec 31 2016 but I was still able to submit an application after that date through the portal. The automated email I received said it was accepted and under review.
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matthew.oommen
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Re: Hiring Outlook

#25 Post by matthew.oommen » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:21 pm

Topoff wrote:Closing date in the posting was Dec 31 2016 but I was still able to submit an application after that date through the portal. The automated email I received said it was accepted and under review.

Same thing with me. Let me know if you hear anything.
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