with another fair sized US player declaring bankruptcy this week (Mesaba) whats your prediction of what aviation will look like down the road in say 10-20 yrs.
for me i think alliance partners will be one ie star alliance and one world.
general aviation will be dead cuz its to damn expensive - many airports close
closest guess gets a million dollars
whats your prediction???
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I think we will see a drastic reduction in the number of operaters, down to only 3 or 4 major airlines in North America. As well, large airliners like the A380 will flop, and the current trend towards regional jets will continue, with VLJs like the Eclipse 500 becoming quite popular and charter traffic becoming much higher.
General aviation will be severely crushed in the next few years, but I think it will pull through and in 20 years we'll see a lot more advanced ultralight-style aircraft, aircraft using diesel engines, and other cost saving measures. Overall, there will be turbulent times in the next decade, and there will be some big winners and big losers. I'd guess that anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the major players today will not exist in any form except for a smoking hole of a bankruptcy filing, and many of the new major aerospace companies will be names we haven't yet heard.
Anyways, thats my $0.02. When do we decide who's closest? I want my million bucks before inflation means that I can barely buy a loaf of bread with it
General aviation will be severely crushed in the next few years, but I think it will pull through and in 20 years we'll see a lot more advanced ultralight-style aircraft, aircraft using diesel engines, and other cost saving measures. Overall, there will be turbulent times in the next decade, and there will be some big winners and big losers. I'd guess that anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the major players today will not exist in any form except for a smoking hole of a bankruptcy filing, and many of the new major aerospace companies will be names we haven't yet heard.
Anyways, thats my $0.02. When do we decide who's closest? I want my million bucks before inflation means that I can barely buy a loaf of bread with it
My prediction?
All the carriers that were screaming for de-regulation will soon be screaming for re-regulation. It's the only way to have healthy airlines again in my opinion.
Left unregulated the airlines have ruthlessly beaten each other to death.
Lommer, I totally agree with your prediction about the A380.
General Aviation will soon have new life breathed into it by tort reform in the US. Without a reduced burden of product liability insurance, new small airplane prices will decrease dramatically.
Bad news for current owners however as the price of used airplanes starts to decline due to the decrease of new airplane prices.
The price of fuel is the big unknown that will tilt (or kill) my predictions. We can only hope that in the near future the Americans will elect a leader who doesn't have a predilection to destablizing the world oil prices.
All the carriers that were screaming for de-regulation will soon be screaming for re-regulation. It's the only way to have healthy airlines again in my opinion.
Left unregulated the airlines have ruthlessly beaten each other to death.
Lommer, I totally agree with your prediction about the A380.
General Aviation will soon have new life breathed into it by tort reform in the US. Without a reduced burden of product liability insurance, new small airplane prices will decrease dramatically.
Bad news for current owners however as the price of used airplanes starts to decline due to the decrease of new airplane prices.
The price of fuel is the big unknown that will tilt (or kill) my predictions. We can only hope that in the near future the Americans will elect a leader who doesn't have a predilection to destablizing the world oil prices.
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AIRUPTHERE
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I think in the U.S. you will start to see Legacy Carriers like American Airlines and the like concentrate on international flights and leave the domestic market to companies like Southwest and JetBlue. This might also be mirrored up here in Canada with WJA, CJA and AC.
I agree that large airliners like the A380 will not succeed because of costs per flight. I think fuel is only going to go up in the future (although I hope not). As a result, the major aircraft companies will be designing their new planes around fuel efficiency as oppose to size and capacity
Just my two cents though.
AIR
I agree that large airliners like the A380 will not succeed because of costs per flight. I think fuel is only going to go up in the future (although I hope not). As a result, the major aircraft companies will be designing their new planes around fuel efficiency as oppose to size and capacity
Just my two cents though.
AIR
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marktheone
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I optimistically think that the large carriers will put air fares back up to where they can make a buck. People will still go. The problem of undercutting exists in the 703 end of things as well. We as a company will not touch it. If there isn't good money in a charter we don't go and by doing that we can offer better service in a safe aircraft.
People will not stop flying and carriers will realize this. As jetsgo showed us we cannot fly from YVR to YYZ for $1. Westjet has stayed the course and they are still making it. Raise the damn fares.
People will not stop flying and carriers will realize this. As jetsgo showed us we cannot fly from YVR to YYZ for $1. Westjet has stayed the course and they are still making it. Raise the damn fares.
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comeoneileen
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Remember though, the 380 has been purchased mostly (if not entirely) by overseas carriers where the market is extremely different than that of North America.
How do *I* see aviation in 20 years?
Corporate - Again, VLJs will become extremely popular.
Airlines - Think smaller at home, larger abroad (in terms of aircraft size). We'll also see the service and price gaps between the LCCs and Legacy Carriers close.
And HUGE expansion in cargo ops.
But what do I know? I'm JUST a pilot.
How do *I* see aviation in 20 years?
Corporate - Again, VLJs will become extremely popular.
Airlines - Think smaller at home, larger abroad (in terms of aircraft size). We'll also see the service and price gaps between the LCCs and Legacy Carriers close.
And HUGE expansion in cargo ops.
But what do I know? I'm JUST a pilot.
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oldncold
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prediction
a380 will not flop
china and india have too many people that will need that size of a/c
general aviation will be around in a revised form t/c will finally allow true
fractional ownership due to cost otherwise risk reducing their # due no workload. :shock: i KNOW THAT WILL GENERATE SOME CONTROVERSY
RIGHT CAT
some one will take the plunge and certify bio diesel .
and the rest of us will adapt and keep on flying into really old age
china and india have too many people that will need that size of a/c
general aviation will be around in a revised form t/c will finally allow true
fractional ownership due to cost otherwise risk reducing their # due no workload. :shock: i KNOW THAT WILL GENERATE SOME CONTROVERSY
RIGHT CAT
some one will take the plunge and certify bio diesel .
and the rest of us will adapt and keep on flying into really old age
