Will Westjet survive?

[Richmond454]

Things are getting worse everyday for everyone in aviation. With projections now saying a full recovery might now happen for several years and this could end up being 5 times more detrimental than 9/11. Do you think WestJet will make it. I assume the government will ensure Air Canada will survive.

[montado]

My crystal ball says yes, they will survive.

And transat will merge into Air Canada, with rouge going into the sunset.

Transat Captains will hold their seats and even become 777 captains. All those who get laid off from AC will only get called back after all the dust settles and only after all the transat pilots have a seat.

Sunwing will be bought by wasaya and rebranded as “the rising sun-wing” “Wasayawing” and provide direct flights from summer beaver to Mexico.

Encore, will come back for one last performance.

Buffalo will be taking some L1011 from the desert to start expanding its network.

And swoop will... oh I don’t see anything left in the crystal ball... guess that’s all.

[Jean-Pierre]

It took 10 year of unprecedented economic growth for WestJet to get to a point where it added junkyard 767. Another couple years of more to get nice 787. It will take at least that long to get to that point again. The question is if Onex want to throw more money at it. If they are to continue they will probably take WestJet back to it's root, ie. Swoop.

[Squid]

Have you been a large part of the 40% increase of Canadian alcohol sales?

[chromeuser]

Short answer: yes.

I believe WJ will emerge a smaller company after this is over. Delta and United have made similar projections even with government bailouts in place.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa ... -1.5519253

2020 is a write off for any significant rebound. I would not expect a recall from a furlough/layoff this year and well into 2021 and that is an optimistic outlook.

[tbaylx]

It took 10 year of unprecedented economic growth for WestJet to get to a point where it added junkyard 767. Another couple years of more to get nice 787. It will take at least that long to get to that point again. The question is if Onex want to throw more money at it. If they are to continue they will probably take WestJet back to it's root, ie. Swoop.

Swoop is certainly not Westjet's roots. COVID would be a convenient excuse to kill off Swoop for Onex and allow them to focus on Westjet's actual roots which is low cost, excellent customer service between major airports in Canada and abroad as demand warrants.

Swoop tried to spam the secondary airports with as much capacity as possible in order to grab market share. It might have worked if unprecedented demand had continued or it was in Europe or Asia. The dramatic drop in demand is likely the final nail in the ULCC experiment at WJ. There is no way Swoop was profitable over the last several months given their load factors, let alone post COVID recovery.

[780Pilot]

100% they will. The AB government wont let that happen and also the feds. Same thing for AC.

[Yycjetdriver]

100% they will. The AB government wont let that happen and also the feds. Same thing for AC.

Maybe look at the current state of affairs in AB, even before Covid. The AB government isn’t in the position to be saving anyone, let alone the large number of Alberta based companies that are going to be in tough shape in the short and long term.

[Realitychex]

[*]I’ll put my money on the lowest cost producer in a commodity business, especially one with critical mass, every time. I continue to do so.

WJ continues to be a significantly lower cost producer of asm’s than AC.

AC will always operate with a “get out of jail free” card.

WJ always thrived in times of economic duress.

When this is over and done with, airplanes next Winter will be full of people heading south with their suitcases full of speedos and Timothy White’s suncream.

[780Pilot]

100% they will. The AB government wont let that happen and also the feds. Same thing for AC.

Maybe look at the current state of affairs in AB, even before Covid. The AB government isn’t in the position to be saving anyone, let alone the large number of Alberta based companies that are going to be in tough shape in the short and long term.

Very true. What im saying is the AB Government wont let Ottawa get away with just helping AC. Besides a good chunk of WJ jobs are in YYZ so its in everyone's interest.

[Old fella]

100% they will. The AB government wont let that happen and also the feds. Same thing for AC.

Maybe look at the current state of affairs in AB, even before Covid. The AB government isn’t in the position to be saving anyone, let alone the large number of Alberta based companies that are going to be in tough shape in the short and long term.

Very true. What im saying is the AB Government wont let Ottawa get away with just helping AC. Besides a good chunk of WJ jobs are in YYZ so its in everyone's interest.

If history is any indication the current administration will not let WJ sink as the Jean Chrétien Government didn’t let CAI go down the toilet. The ongoing shit show isn’t the fault of any airline as they just got caught out and are doing the very best they can to stay solvent until this virus gong show subsides. I have absolutely no issue with tax dollars directed towards loans or other guarantees of whatever to assist all carriers. In my view they run essential operations, are managed well and employ thousands.

[countdown]

I think Schwartz, AKA Onex, is not stressing about the current issues. They are looking a year or two out, and seeing lots of opportunities.

[altiplano]

WJ continues to be a significantly lower cost producer of asm’s than AC.

How do you know that? Westjet doesn't publish financials.

[cloak]

[*]I’ll put my money on the lowest cost producer in a commodity business, especially one with critical mass, every time. I continue to do so.

WJ continues to be a significantly lower cost producer of asm’s than AC....

WestJet or Swoop? Flair and other newcomers seem to marvel a market without Swoop; maybe some (ostensibly) WestJetters too!

[chromeuser]

I think Schwartz, AKA Onex, is not stressing about the current issues. They are looking a year or two out, and seeing lots of opportunities.

I'd look at what Warren Buffet is doing.

['97 Tercel]

wasting away again in Margaritaville

[co-joe]

Have you been a large part of the 40% increase of Canadian alcohol sales?

I'm sure I account for a decent chunk of one of those percents.

[Jean-Pierre]

Probably not no. The only world airline to survive this will be flag carrier propped up by their government. Many will end up being nationalized too.

[iflyforpie]

100% they will. The AB government wont let that happen and also the feds. Same thing for AC.

Lol. The AB government doesn’t care unless it’s oil.

Look at them throwing more taxpayer’s money away at Keystone XL for oil that is worth less than the proverbial barrel it’s contained in—especially not Trump’s “America First” America that’s already a net exporter.

[Airbrake]

I think Schwartz, AKA Onex, is not stressing about the current issues. They are looking a year or two out, and seeing lots of opportunities.

I'd look at what Warren Buffet is doing.

Looks like he is selling airlines.

https://apple.news/AivVkR9q2R9uWmD0wMZ_3EA


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly $390 million worth of shares in Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines this week, reducing its exposure to an industry being hammered by the coronavirus pandemic.
The famed investor's conglomerate slashed its roughly 11% stake in Delta by nearly one-fifth, from 71.9 million shares to 58.9 million, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing published on Friday.
Berkshire also sold about 2.3 million shares in Southwest, reducing its stake in the airline by just over 4%, another SEC filing showed.
It netted about $314 million from the Delta share sales, plus another $74 million from the Southwest disposals, for a total of about $389 million.
The news sent Delta's stock down 11% and Southwest's stock down 9% in after-hours trading.
Berkshire's stock portfolio took an estimated $5 billion hit on its investments in the four major US airlines last quarter as they plunged by an average of 52% in the period.
Read more: Jefferies says these 15 stocks make the perfect buy for investors seeking quality, defense, and recovery as the coronavirus sends markets spinning
But the disposals are surprising. "I won't be selling airline stocks," Buffett told Yahoo Finance three weeks ago. Berkshire also added to its Delta stake in late February, purchasing the shares at nearly twice the price it sold each for this week.
The sales come as the airline industry continues to endure heavy losses amid the coronavirus outbreak. Airlines have been forced to suspend routes, cancel flights, and ground planes as travel restrictions, border closures, and stay-at-home advisories lead to a near halt in air travel.
On Friday, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a memo to employees the airline was burning through more than $60 million every day as the crisis continues and that it had canceled about 115,000 flights for April, or 80% of its total schedule. Sunday saw just 38,000 passengers fly, compared with 600,000 on the last Sunday of March in 2019, he wrote.
Southwest has been similarly affected as travel demand has fallen. CEO Gary Kelly previously said that the airline was losing money on every flight it operates.
Both airlines have said they plan to file for payroll grants under the federal coronavirus aid package, which will help pay workers. Under the terms of the grants, airlines will be prohibited from buying back stocks or paying dividends to shareholders.
Airlines receiving aid through the payroll grants, or in the form of loans, are also required to continue flying despite the low demand, as part of an effort to maintain supply chains and connectivity for essential travel.

[privateer]

I don't think Onex Corp is too worried about their WestJet. They're looking for buys.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/onex-touts- ... -1.1412645

The chief executive officer of Onex Corp. is reassuring shareholders it has the ability to survive the COVID-19 pandemic even though all of its businesses will likely take a hit.
“Onex is criticized from time-to-time for having too much cash. It’s a drag on our overall return on investment to remain so liquid, as we earn very little income on our cash. With the current crisis, though, its purpose should be clear. It ensures that we can continue investing through good and bad times – it also ensures that we are never a forced seller,” Gerry Schwartz wrote in a March 25 letter to shareholders.
“So, as we make our way through the crisis, the approximately $2.8 billion ($28/share) we have in cash and near cash provides us both opportunity and comfort. We are also debt-free at Onex Corp. and our ability to maintain our dividends, to survive a crisis and to seize opportunities is not in question.”
Schwartz said he expects all of the 36 businesses that Toronto-based Onex owns in Canada, the U.S., U.K., and Europe to be impacted by the virus, with some seeing near shutdowns.
​“During that time, they will consume cash and much of that cash will be lost for all time,” Schwartz wrote. “Then, those businesses will re-open and again serve their customers and generate cash. That’s why it’s so critically important for all our businesses to have balance sheets created for sustainability.”
WestJet Airlines Ltd., which Onex acquired last year, is one of these businesses. The Calgary-based airline has already taken a massive hit due to the pandemic. It announced earlier this week it was slashing its workforce nearly in half by laying off 6,900 employees due to a suspension of its international and transborder flights.

[Bornaflyer]

My crystal ball says yes, they will survive.

And transat will merge into Air Canada, with rouge going into the sunset.

Transat Captains will hold their seats and even become 777 captains. All those who get laid off from AC will only get called back after all the dust settles and only after all the transat pilots have a seat.

Sunwing will be bought by wasaya and rebranded as “the rising sun-wing” “Wasayawing” and provide direct flights from summer beaver to Mexico.

Encore, will come back for one last performance.

Buffalo will be taking some L1011 from the desert to start expanding its network.

And swoop will... oh I don’t see anything left in the crystal ball... guess that’s all.

Your crystal ball seems to be on meth. According to management during a recent recurrent sim, we were told that air Canada is at this point negotiating with Garneau to VOID the bailout fee and call force majeure to get out of the deal. Air Canada doesn't need old ageing planes, no extra pilots, AC already has thousands at this point sitting on reserve at half pay.
Canada will look like Europe at the end of this, ONE airline for each country.. no room for ULCCs in Canada as noone who's cheap enough to fly swoop will be even thinking of buying a ticket to see ol' granny in Abbotsford! Once things pick up, AC will get to pick up what's remaining of the Transat boneyard in Arizona and may look at the their roster to put some new guys into the right seat of the Embraer

[montado]

My crystal ball says yes, they will survive.

And transat will merge into Air Canada, with rouge going into the sunset.

Transat Captains will hold their seats and even become 777 captains. All those who get laid off from AC will only get called back after all the dust settles and only after all the transat pilots have a seat.

Sunwing will be bought by wasaya and rebranded as “the rising sun-wing” “Wasayawing” and provide direct flights from summer beaver to Mexico.

Encore, will come back for one last performance.

Buffalo will be taking some L1011 from the desert to start expanding its network.

And swoop will... oh I don’t see anything left in the crystal ball... guess that’s all.

Your crystal ball seems to be on meth. According to management during a recent recurrent sim, we were told that air Canada is at this point negotiating with Garneau to VOID the bailout fee and call force majeure to get out of the deal. Air Canada doesn't need old ageing planes, no extra pilots, AC already has thousands at this point sitting on reserve at half pay.
Canada will look like Europe at the end of this, ONE airline for each country.. no room for ULCCs in Canada as noone who's cheap enough to fly swoop will be even thinking of buying a ticket to see ol' granny in Abbotsford! Once things pick up, AC will get to pick up what's remaining of the Transat boneyard in Arizona and may look at the their roster to put some new guys into the right seat of the Embraer

Wow you are as full as shit as I am. Management doesn't disclose information in publicly traded companies. The only thing management tells you is what is public knowledge.

You can listen to whatever Kool-Aid you like but managers are great at telling you how something absolutely won't happen on a Friday and Monday morning have a huge parade celebrating just that very thing that Friday they said would never happen.

[KAG]

Well, we have a solid bank account, lots of owned AC to sell, and deep pockets own us. I’d say we’ll survive but in what form and size remains the question.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Well, we have a solid bank account, lots of owned AC to sell, and deep pockets own us. I’d say we’ll survive but in what form and size remains the question.

An owned aircraft to sell is great when there's a demand for airplanes.