Equipment bid

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

Any equipement bid happening?

What will happen to old awarded upgrades that never happened?

What will happen to the ppl who got ATPLs in the meantime. Will they be skipped over to upgrade the jr pilots who were awarded upgrades pre pandemic?

Comments/info/rumors?

[mbav8r]

If there is a bid, it will very likely include further downgrades. Currently running 2 to 1 Captain to FO ratio, but an earlier agreement prevented further downgrades for now.
The old awarded upgrades were cancelled, a new bid would be just that, so unless there is a significant increase in flying I expect further downgrades and equipment changes.
When the dust settles, my guess the most junior Captain will be 10-12 years of service.

[dhc#]

Must be getting pretty grey on most flight decks these days.

[rudder]

If there is a bid, it will very likely include further downgrades. Currently running 2 to 1 Captain to FO ratio, but an earlier agreement prevented further downgrades for now.
The old awarded upgrades were cancelled, a new bid would be just that, so unless there is a significant increase in flying I expect further downgrades and equipment changes.
When the dust settles, my guess the most junior Captain will be 10-12 years of service.

Jazz will likely maintain status quo staffing arrangements for so long as it qualifies for and is receiving meaningful CEWS reimbursement.

I don’t see any scenario where any CDN carrier gets above 50% of peak 2019 capacity in 2021. Jazz is currently staffed for around a 50% operation. AC has chosen to look past 2021 to 2022 with a guesstimate of 70-80% of 2019 capacity for pilot staffing forecast. Not much choice for AC except to be conservative in reductions as the training timeline and expense is massive for an airline with such a diverse fleet structure.

AC must reimburse CHR for crew dislocation and training expense related to schedule and fleet changes. I am guessing that AC is not in a rush either to incur that expense. However, if YOW curtails the CEWS subsidy or if AC makes final decisions about long term fleet planning for Express, Jazz may carry out an official reduction bid in Q1 2021 to cover the balance of 2021 and winter 2021/2022.

[Inverted2]

I agree with the above. If there was a significant reduction bid it would involve massive training events. For example RJ captains who couldn’t hold their current spot would bid Dash captain. Displaced Dash captains would bid RJ fo, RJ fo would be displaced to Dash fo. It’s a viscous circle so to say.......

The training costs would outweigh the cost savings of a bunch of downgrades.

[Ash Ketchum]

Based on this it does not look like many recalls will occur in 2021 at Jazz? Maybe a few more pilots called back in fall of 2021 but I could see most recalls not happening until spring/fall 2022.

[Inverted2]

Based on this it does not look like many recalls will occur in 2021 at Jazz? Maybe a few more pilots called back in fall of 2021 but I could see most recalls not happening until spring/fall 2022.

I don’t think there will be any recalls in 2021 to be honest. The retirements and medical leaves are probably preventing further layoffs. We’ll have to see how this vaccine debacle plays out next year and if the Chinese have a COVID-21 brewing up.

[flyingcanuck]

Based on this it does not look like many recalls will occur in 2021 at Jazz? Maybe a few more pilots called back in fall of 2021 but I could see most recalls not happening until spring/fall 2022.

man I hope this isnt the case..

[rudder]

Based on this it does not look like many recalls will occur in 2021 at Jazz? Maybe a few more pilots called back in fall of 2021 but I could see most recalls not happening until spring/fall 2022.

man I hope this isnt the case..

If Jazz is flying 70%+ of 2019 block hours in summer 2022 then there will need to be up to 300 pilot recalls.

Jazz will have to come up with a training plan to accommodate requalifying lapsed pilots and some full courses for pilots changing equipment.

Would expect to see recalls commencing not later than January 2022. As for most junior lay-off recalled.... that could be 2023.

There will be only retirement attrition for the next 3 years. Would not expect to see any Jazz pilots moving to AC until early 2024.

[2nine9two]

Unfortunately, no recalls in 2021 would not surprise me.

Especially considering the willingness of some active members to "Help out" and fly 100+ credit months.

I'm sure the company can count on these fine folks to keep the CAE bill under control for at least another year...

[AA123455]

Unfortunately, no recalls in 2021 would not surprise me.

Especially considering the willingness of some active members to "Help out" and fly 100+ credit months.

I'm sure the company can count on these fine folks to keep the CAE bill under control for at least another year...

It’s nearly impossible to get above 90 creds with these new duty regs. Government is making us so inefficient these days, airlines won’t turn a profit for a decade or more.

Crews are more inefficient, ticket prices going up, would be passangers choosing to “zoom” instead of traveling for work or pleasure. We’ll all be working at an Amazon warehouse soon, or until the robots replace us anyway, no point in speculating over the nice pilot jobs we used to have where working an extra pairing a month could add %20-30 to your income.... Ce la vie

[rudder]

Unfortunately, no recalls in 2021 would not surprise me.

Especially considering the willingness of some active members to "Help out" and fly 100+ credit months.

I'm sure the company can count on these fine folks to keep the CAE bill under control for at least another year...

As currently constituted, Jazz has some pilot rosters doing virtually no flying. January/February projection is even less flying.

If Jazz were to run a reduction bid proportionate to flying, there would be even less Jazz pilots on active payroll.

The Jazz MEC has even assisted the company by permitting a temp Base in YHZ. Is that also delaying recalls? No. Why? Because it is time limited while Jazz remains overstaffed.

Jazz has 55% of its pilots on active payroll. Many are on the wrong plane, in the wrong seat, and on the wrong Base if a bid were run reflecting current flying. Even a bid run based on a return to 50% of prior block hours will see significant pilot dislocation and may not result in the need for a single recall. It will also result in significant further downgrades. Jazz currently maintains a dramatic roster imbalance allowing 100+ pilots to maintain CA pay rate.

Availability of CEWS has allowed Jazz to maintain significantly more Jazz pilots on active payroll than would be the case without CEWS.

The Jazz MEC has imposed limits on overtime. The revised FTDT rules which are now in effect have also added further restrictions in scheduling and legality to add ad hoc flying. Due to a return to grossly depressed flying levels, January/February will see most of the airline on RSV.

Much like AC, the issue isn’t about recalls for 2021. It is about the fact that even more pilots should be on lay-off if staffing were proportional to anticipated flying levels for the next 12 months.

AC is using a pilot staffing plan based on 2022. It is doing so to avoid massive dislocation and retraining costs and is heavily relying on the CEWS payroll subsidy. In other words - it is planning for the recovery phase. It remains to be seen if Jazz will follow suit. There is no indication that Jazz will see flying levels exceed 50% in 2021. In point of fact, a return to 50% flying levels in 2021 is unlikely.

Jazz is further impacted by the fact that it ‘shares’ the Express flying portfolio. That issue also requires greater transparency before decisions can be made about anticipated pilot staffing in 2021. Express may eventually return to 50% of prior flying levels, but it is possible that the Jazz silo may remain below 50%. Conversely, Jazz may restore a disproportionate level of Express flying depending on Express fleet decisions taken by AC.

[Percey]

I wonder when the AC decisions are most likely to be made- the 2021 picture isn’t going to come into focus until the summer, maybe? Surely they’ll need to make decisions before that. Then again the potential CHR sale is in the works too and I’m surprised that’s taken as long as it has and yet to be disclosed. Everything is up in the air these days (pun intended)!

[rudder]

I wonder when the AC decisions are most likely to be made- the 2021 picture isn’t going to come into focus until the summer, maybe? Surely they’ll need to make decisions before that. Then again the potential CHR sale is in the works too and I’m surprised that’s taken as long as it has and yet to be disclosed. Everything is up in the air these days (pun intended)!

Factors:

1. Status/amount/terms of Federal financial aid for airlines
2. Rate of vaccination/availability of inoculations
3. Status of regional/international travel restrictions
4. Status/eligibility/amount of CEWS
5. Express CPA structure/fleet circa 2022 and beyond

When AC has clear answers to these questions, it will be able to better estimate demand and set schedule.

I doubt that the ownership structure of CHR will have any bearing unless a change in ownership triggers CPA termination provisions (highly unlikely).

[coastdog13]

Based on this it does not look like many recalls will occur in 2021 at Jazz? Maybe a few more pilots called back in fall of 2021 but I could see most recalls not happening until spring/fall 2022.

man I hope this isnt the case..

If Jazz is flying 70%+ of 2019 block hours in summer 2022 then there will need to be up to 300 pilot recalls.

Jazz will have to come up with a training plan to accommodate requalifying lapsed pilots and some full courses for pilots changing equipment.

Would expect to see recalls commencing not later than January 2022. As for most junior lay-off recalled.... that could be 2023.

There will be only retirement attrition for the next 3 years. Would not expect to see any Jazz pilots moving to AC until early 2024.

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

[rudder]

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

Prepare yourself to be disappointed. I hope that things turn out better, but there is ZERO guidance from the decisionmakers that a magical recovery is on the horizon. Listen carefully to what CR has said publicly.

Smart players hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

[coastdog13]

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

Prepare yourself to be disappointed. I hope that things turn out better, but there is ZERO guidance from the decisionmakers that a magical recovery is on the horizon. Listen carefully to what CR has said publicly.

Smart players hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

I didnt say not to plan for the worst. I did, long before COVID was a thing, which is why Im not outside King of Donair prostituting myself out for cheeseburgers.

But there is nothing wrong with stating a few FACTS about the current situation.

What if recalls arent until 2025? Then you'd be optimistic saying 2022... my point is guessing dates is relatively pointless.

[Outlaw58]

What if recalls arent until 2025? Then you'd be optimistic saying 2022... my point is guessing dates is relatively pointless.

Educated guessing is not pointless. It's like guessing a baby due date, it may not be exactly on the predicted due date but it won't be far before or after it. The 2022 time frame does seem to align with all the projections that are out there whether they be from CHR or AC.

58

[Inverted2]

2021 is a write off. We are almost there and they are pouring on the lockdowns and restrictions like they did in March.

[rudder]

TRZ just announced Q4 2020 financial results and does not forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels prior to 2023. And yes - they are well aware of the arrival of the vaccine (even referred to it in the press release). Also indicate that 2021 operations and revenue will continue to be dramatically affected by COVID related travel issues.

So how many airline CEO’s have to say it before it becomes a credible forecast?

[AA123455]

TRZ just announced Q4 2020 financial results and does not forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels prior to 2023. And yes - they are well aware of the arrival of the vaccine (even referred to it in the press release). Also indicate that 2021 operations and revenue will continue to be dramatically affected by COVID related travel issues.

So how many airline CEO’s have to say it before it becomes a credible forecast?

Economists and weathermen are the only professions that can be consistently wrong, and still have a job lol.

That’s the thing about the future, no one can predict it.

What if the business community zooms itself out of the need to no longer take business trips, and people are to poor to afford vacations, and pax volumes don’t recover until mid 2040’s?

Or what if rainbows break out all over the world and Q3 of 2021 surpasses 2019 pax volumes and AC upgrades go to 6 months again?

[Inverted2]

TRZ just announced Q4 2020 financial results and does not forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels prior to 2023. And yes - they are well aware of the arrival of the vaccine (even referred to it in the press release). Also indicate that 2021 operations and revenue will continue to be dramatically affected by COVID related travel issues.

So how many airline CEO’s have to say it before it becomes a credible forecast?

Economists and weathermen are the only professions that can be consistently wrong, and still have a job lol.

That’s the thing about the future, no one can predict it.

What if the business community zooms itself out of the need to no longer take business trips, and people are to poor to afford vacations, and pax volumes don’t recover until mid 2040’s?

Or what if rainbows break out all over the world and Q3 of 2021 surpasses 2019 pax volumes and AC upgrades go to 6 months again?

The bold part of what you said is correct and happening unfortunately. All those people who lost their jobs and businesses won’t be traveling much for the next few years. They’ll be hoping to keep the bills paid and food on the table.

[Canoehead]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

[coastdog13]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

I will not be dissappointed because I dont have any expectations. I never speculated, and never will speculate (positively or negatively).

[Splash]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

I will not be dissappointed because I dont have any expectations. I never speculated, and never will speculate (positively or negatively).

If people didn't speculate on this forum, it would become rather boring. On the other hand, if you're looking for facts, this may not be the best venue.