Air Canada deal dead

Discuss topics related to Air Transat.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog

User avatar
Old fella
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2394
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:04 am
Location: I'm retired. I don't want to'I don't have to and you can't make me.

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Old fella »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:08 am Some people can never take the high road or resist gloating. Just know that you have not won, you had no part in how any of this played out. hat goes for both sides.

If you wouldn't dare say it to someone's face don't hide behind a keyboard, just keep it to yourself.

Transat has been a great place to work and I hope we can keep going. The attraction with the AC merger was job stability for many, keep going till our retirement. The other big attraction was that out is an airline and not a tour operator with an airline. That is the biggest problem with the TS business model in my opinion, not enough effort into the airline side to generate revenu.

That being said, Westjet would be my first choice over any other merger or acquisition due to the fact it is an airline. I'd like to see the EU complain about the monopoly on that merger but wouldn't be surprised if they tried to stop it either. There have been a lot of airlines that have failed in Europe over the past 2 years.
What I have been hearing and I do hear plenty, AT offers a very good product at a very competitive price. The tour packages are first rate many tell me. Just saying!
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by rudder »

Old fella wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:19 am
What I have been hearing and I do hear plenty, AT offers a very good product at a very competitive price. The tour packages are first rate many tell me. Just saying!
AT offers a great product. No question about that.

But TRZ has to figure out how to make a profit and to do so with some measure of consistency. If not - then why invest?
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:02 am
I think we have to put water under the bridge and unite going forward in our common struggles. This proposed merger was never us, it was an MBA vanity project.
There was a certain former CEO who was obsessed with revenue growth. To his credit, he doubled the annual revenues of the company that he presided over. It also left that company horribly exposed in the COVID crisis.

The market has changed. The strategic plan has changed. And becoming a top 10 global passenger carrier operating out of a country the size of Canada may not be the best financial objective.

Dial the clock back to April 2019 and that is the competitive landscape for CDN carriers. Whether all make it through remains to be determined, and CCAA is still a real possibility for one or more.
---------- ADS -----------
 
TFTMB heavy
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 656
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:58 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by TFTMB heavy »

Old fella wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:19 am

What I have been hearing and I do hear plenty, AT offers a very good product at a very competitive price. The tour packages are first rate many tell me. Just saying!
The problem with packages is the yield is very small. The yield on flight only is higher but TS does not have the infrastructure and reservation systems to compete in that market.
---------- ADS -----------
 
777Aviate
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 32
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:43 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by 777Aviate »

Air Transat will find it hard to compete in pricing. Air Canada has a larger operation and that allows them to lower their average cost and spread it over a large operation achieving economies of scale. You can say the same about WJA. Transat had a small operation before the pandemic and will have a smaller more fragile operation after the pandemic which has been shut for a while not bringing in cas flow while ACA has been doing cargo and have it going for them allowing them to actually be able to price below their cost if they really want to. WJA too maybe.
---------- ADS -----------
 
ShamrockPilot
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:46 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by ShamrockPilot »

Sharklasers wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:26 pm
fish4life wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:52 pm It would be interesting if Transat also went ULCC and ran the 321’s domestically as a shift
It would be interesting if Transat was a ulcc, in the same vein if my aunt had wheels she would be a bicycle. Transat needs survival capital and a had a mature cost structure. They won’t be trying to eat flairs lunch anytime soon.
This is remarkable.
---------- ADS -----------
 
TFTMB heavy
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 656
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:58 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:02 am Then we need to revisit unity for Canadian Pilot representation. I know ALPA talks died/were blocked in '19 for political purpose. Time to look again.
I doubt that will happen, most people don't want to give anything up for the collective good.
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5377
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by altiplano »

Perhaps. But really what's to give?

Separation of C group from ALPA Canada?
Roll call voting on common Canadian policy and lobbying issues at ALPA Canada like every other ALPA group has?
In exchange for roughly twice the resources and a bigger voice?
And a unified front for professionals in this country?

Existing C airlines still run group C the same and get there own EVP elected.

AC Pilots won't be part of that they'll only come in as an A airline.

I seriously don't see what the give is for Canadian ALPA airlines.
---------- ADS -----------
 
ayseven
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 609
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:17 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by ayseven »

Can somebody explain to me - a complete outsider - why European regulators have a say at all? I doubt we had any say with their subsidies. I don't, as a member of the lowly flying public, really know whether this is good, bad or otherwise.
---------- ADS -----------
 
DBR
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:03 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by DBR »

I believe they’ve had a say ever since ‘open skies’ became a reality. Similar to the impact the acquisition may’ve had on fares and competition here, the same applied to Europe.

I’ve mixed feelings about it falling through. No one looked forward to the integration of lists, but there was lots of potential in becoming a power house having the TS brand within the AC brand. The pandemic made that idea vanish and with Omar and Justin still trying to figure out what’s happening we’ll have to collectively come to terms that our companies will be smaller for a while.

Wishing the best for everyone at TS. They’ve a good brand, and I’ve always enjoyed flying with them both as a fare paying passenger or through the jumpseat program. We’re all in this together. Last thing we want is seeing this company disappear and being replaced by a newcomer with likely worse WAWCON.

Let’s hope we can get ourselves out of this mess without too many lets on our CBA, unite our collective interests and end up on top eventually.

DBR
---------- ADS -----------
 
Sharklasers
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 478
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Sharklasers »

ShamrockPilot wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
Sharklasers wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:26 pm
fish4life wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:52 pm It would be interesting if Transat also went ULCC and ran the 321’s domestically as a shift
It would be interesting if Transat was a ulcc, in the same vein if my aunt had wheels she would be a bicycle. Transat needs survival capital and a had a mature cost structure. They won’t be trying to eat flairs lunch anytime soon.
This is remarkable.
The UlCC is one of the most cash intensive models to start, it precludes any opportunity for organic growth as it relies on economies of scale to hope to get to the other side of profitability. That’s why flair languished untill deep pocketed investors who weren’t squeamish about lighting piles of cash on fire showed up. Transat is in a whole other world of hurt right now. They need to raise 500 million dollars before June 30 when their line of credit is due or that’s it. That money is not for a model pivot or growth, that’s just to keep the lights on. Further they have been trying since at least December to raise that capital and are seemingly no closer to that goal. Raising $500,000,000 will be no small accomplishment for a company that will have a market value of about ~$70,000,000 by 9:45 AM Tuesday morning based on their share float of 32.56 million. That said I’m sure the government will back whoever gives Transat the cash but it’s not like JME can wake up and say he’s running a ulcc now.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Savage Poetry
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:54 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Savage Poetry »

No. Air Transat will do fine, almost 600 M$ in cash remember. I think Transat is in great financial shape.
Company rumeur right now is we get the sleeping 787 from Norwegian for Atlantic crossings after Air France buys 49% of AT.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Sharklasers
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 478
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Sharklasers »

Savage Poetry wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:32 pm No. Air Transat will do fine, almost 600 M$ in cash remember. I think Transat is in great financial shape.
Company rumeur right now is we get the sleeping 787 from Norwegian for Atlantic crossings after Air France buys 49% of AT.
Someone better remind JME about that 600 million.....
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
RRJetPilot
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed May 10, 2017 10:43 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by RRJetPilot »

Savage Poetry wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:32 pm No. Air Transat will do fine, almost 600 M$ in cash remember. I think Transat is in great financial shape.
Company rumeur right now is we get the sleeping 787 from Norwegian for Atlantic crossings after Air France buys 49% of AT.
:prayer: :prayer: :prayer:
:rolleyes:
delusional
---------- ADS -----------
 
simply_no_one
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 150
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by simply_no_one »

altiplano wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:50 am Perhaps. But really what's to give?

Separation of C group from ALPA Canada?
Roll call voting on common Canadian policy and lobbying issues at ALPA Canada like every other ALPA group has?
In exchange for roughly twice the resources and a bigger voice?
And a unified front for professionals in this country?

Existing C airlines still run group C the same and get there own EVP elected.

AC Pilots won't be part of that they'll only come in as an A airline.

I seriously don't see what the give is for Canadian ALPA airlines.
AC joining ALPA would benefit Canadian ALPA carriers. There's no give. On either side of the coin. AC pilots get to sit at the big table and Group C airlines can continue to feel important among themselves.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
schnitzel2k3
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1456
Joined: Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

jpilot77 wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:04 am People may bitch about Rouge, but at the end of the day people didn’t care, flights were always packed.
People cared, they just didn't have much choice. That's why they call it getting 'Rouged'...
---------- ADS -----------
 
Ypilot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2014 2:08 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Ypilot »

If you think about it, that’s a lot of time wasted. All of these speculations for absolutely nothing.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Curiousflyer
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:13 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Curiousflyer »

Savage Poetry wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:32 pm No. Air Transat will do fine, almost 600 M$ in cash remember. I think Transat is in great financial shape.
Company rumeur right now is we get the sleeping 787 from Norwegian for Atlantic crossings after Air France buys 49% of AT.
Not sure where you get $600M in Cash. Their quarterly report clearly says "As at January 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents amounted to $302.8 million." I'm not sure what the cash burn is, but I think the broader concern for them financially is the required $500M by June 30th due to debt maturity.

Quoted from the Quarterly Report:
"The Corporation is making every effort to complete the transaction with Air Canada. Should the transaction not be completed, the
Corporation’s ability to continue as a going concern for the next 12 months involves significant judgment and is dependent on its ability to
obtain additional financing before the maturity of the subordinated short-term credit facility (currently, the maturity date is June 30, 2021),
either through new sources of financing, including the amendment and renewal of its subordinated short-term credit facility, the impact of
the COVID-19 pandemic and related government restrictions on the Corporation’s operations and liquidity (including the Corporation’s
ability to resume normal operations at a sufficient level), the Corporation’s ability to increase revenues to generate positive cash flows from
operations, and the continued support of its suppliers, lessors, credit card processors and other creditors. Should the transaction not take
place, management is therefore actively seeking to secure financing that would be required before the maturity of the subordinated shortterm credit facility (currently, the maturity date is June 30, 2021) and is currently discussing with potential lenders, including federal and
provincial government authorities. These discussions include a possible application under the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility
(LEEFF). Management could also try to extend the maturity of the subordinated short-term credit facility to give itself more time to arrange
the required overall financing. Management is also continuing to monitor possible government assistance programs, including sectoral
financial support that could include loans and possibly other types of support announced by Canada’s Minister of Transport. At the same
time, the Corporation is negotiating with its lessors to amend lease terms and conditions."
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
Co-Joe Exotic
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:42 am

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Co-Joe Exotic »

Drank 24 Pilsners this weekend on the positive news.

AC-Furloughed.

Medical lapsed. No medical questions to worry about. Giddy up.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Ypilot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2014 2:08 pm

Re: Air Canada deal dead

Post by Ypilot »

Co-Joe Exotic wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:18 pm Drank 24 Pilsners this weekend on the positive news.

AC-Furloughed.

Medical lapsed. No medical questions to worry about. Giddy up.
Best post ever.
There’s a lot of CEO in here. They can run a business.

Real story is, 13 months losing money for all Canadians airlines, we are going to pay for that for a long time. Lets enjoy our CA while it last.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “Air Transat”