What will happen to our industry?

[pacman007]

With Covid not going away anytime soon what will happen to our airlines? And most importantly pilots. Do we see a full recovery at some point? Or long waits for recall and lower WACONs being negotiated due to the damage our airlines have faced?

[ayseven]

The answer you want is inside. When the fork in the road presents itself, take it.

[flyingcanuck]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

[Old fella]

One thing is certain, there is a pent up demand to bust loose and get back to some normality in life. Domestic and International travel included, how that translates for the Canadian airline business is way beyond my level of knowledge on the subject. There are better and smarter individuals than me who could provide insight as to how things may/will shape up in this particular sector. Hopefully some of the more astute common-taters can shed some light.

[flying4dollars]

One thing is certain, there is a pent up demand to bust loose and get back to some normality in life. Domestic and International travel included, how that translates for the Canadian airline business is way beyond my level of knowledge on the subject. There are better and smarter individuals than me who could provide insight as to how things may/will shape up in this particular sector. Hopefully some of the more astute common-taters can shed some light.

My thoughts exactly.

[montado]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.

[Outlaw58]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.

The world never went back to what it was pre-9/11. But it became a world where we were able to live our lives.

Same will happen with COVID.

58

[Old fella]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.

The world never went back to what it was pre-9/11. But it became a world where we were able to live our lives.

Same will happen with COVID.

58

Not sure I totally agree, 9-11 will 20 yrs ago this year and for the most part( sad as it was) people(USA) have put it behind them and moved on. Speaking of which if I am reading it correctly, airline business in the US is on a rebound with various airlines adding new routes, rehiring laid off staff, even pilot external hiring talks. This has to be positive for sure, also if you took note of Biden’s latest announcement there will be a general easing of restrictions aka masks,gatherings etc, this will instil confidence going forward. Just saying.

[rudder]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.

[Outlaw58]

Not sure I totally agree, 9-11 will 20 yrs ago this year and for the most part( sad as it was) people(USA) have put it behind them and moved on.

I was making reference to things like new screening procedures at airport, or cockpits that are locked during flights....these things were different pre- 9/11 and are not coming back.

Along the same lines, it is fair to think that the post-pandemic era will see some of the health measures implemented, incorporated into our new way of life.

58

[Outlaw58]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.

Your assessment is more than likely spot on, but I choose to be more optimistic than you.

March 2020, I had no idea that such a quick 90 deg turn to the left was possible. We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58

[rudder]

We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58

I am slightly less optimistic about timing for start of travel recovery, however, once it commences I do believe that the rate of recovery will be exponential. The biggest barrier will be jurisdictions that are well behind in rate of vaccination and therefore rate of infection.

I am in the oldest cohort of the ‘still working’ group. In my province my second shot will not happen until very late in the summer. And with the 14 day post-vaccination period for effectiveness, I cannot really be considered fully immunized until after Labour Day. If that is the case for the oldest constituency of the working class, what will it be for the youngest?

Perhaps the vaccine fairy will drop millions of extra doses in Canada and perhaps the provinces will figure out how to increase the rate of daily vaccinations. But I won’t hold my breath. I will believe what I see with my eyes rather than what I hear from politicians.

The airline industry is facing a tough road ahead. We will wax nostalgic about the heady days of 2019 recognizing that there will be no magical snap-back.

[CruiserNU]

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two

[newlygrounded]

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two

My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.

[digits_]

Then there is the danger that the government might impose extra restrictions a few weeks after they relaxed them. Then you might want to cancel, but since you can technically still go, airlines or hotels might not be willing to refund you. I predict we'll see a spike of short notice travel when conditions allow, but not many medium or long term bookings.

[flyingcanuck]

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible

[‘Bob’]

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two

My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.

Where are they going to live? Lol!

Sorry but that home value is all academic unless you sell. And then what? Be on the wrong side of a bidding war to get it back and LOSE money!

[Tuza]

If war starts to take hold, this will be a vastly different thread of information regarding jobs specific to aviation.

[CruiserNU]

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible

I'd be cautious about believing anything the government says about the economy "bouncing back, stronger than ever". What else can they say but to portray a rosy outlook? Saying anything else will erode consumer confidence even further.

[alkaseltzer]

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible

I'd be cautious about believing anything the government says about the economy "bouncing back, stronger than ever". What else can they say but to portray a rosy outlook? Saying anything else will erode consumer confidence even further.

There’s more than a million immigrants itching to set their roots in Canada which they couldn’t do from the pandemic. Taps will flow.

Things will get better.

[newlygrounded]

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two

My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.

Where are they going to live? Lol!

Sorry but that home value is all academic unless you sell. And then what? Be on the wrong side of a bidding war to get it back and LOSE money!

Home equity loans, know that tons of people are taking them out, some to buy more houses and rent them out

[newlygrounded]

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible

Ontario said everyone can get their first jab pretty soon, we might actually beat them to herd immunity.

[Canuck1988]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.

Vaccines should be picking up drastically this month and next with expected deliveries almost doubling. Should bump the rate, to something like flyingcanuck suggested... barring any delays or cancellations of deliveries... and provinces ability to put them in arms. So far I believe most of the delays have been to delays/cancellations, time will tell if the provinces can administer them at the increased delivery rate.

Sounds like vaccine passports are very much on the table.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/vaccine ... -1.5404349

I think your just not as optimistic as me.

[Outlaw58]

We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58

I am slightly less optimistic about timing for start of travel recovery, however, once it commences I do believe that the rate of recovery will be exponential. The biggest barrier will be jurisdictions that are well behind in rate of vaccination and therefore rate of infection.

I am in the oldest cohort of the ‘still working’ group. In my province my second shot will not happen until very late in the summer. And with the 14 day post-vaccination period for effectiveness, I cannot really be considered fully immunized until after Labour Day. If that is the case for the oldest constituency of the working class, what will it be for the youngest?

Perhaps the vaccine fairy will drop millions of extra doses in Canada and perhaps the provinces will figure out how to increase the rate of daily vaccinations. But I won’t hold my breath. I will believe what I see with my eyes rather than what I hear from politicians.

The airline industry is facing a tough road ahead. We will wax nostalgic about the heady days of 2019 recognizing that there will be no magical snap-back.

From what I have read about the vaccines, 1st shot protects you, 2nd one extends the duration of that protection (with small boost).

Based on that, I made the assumption we won't need to wait for the 2nd dose to see the positive effect of the vaccine (looking at the 70+ age group seems to support that hypothesis).

What remains to be seen is whether jurisdictions will want to wait til a 2nd shot, as you suggest, before relaxing measures in a meaningful way or will relax early based on numbers as I am hoping.

58

[PostmasterGeneral]

Once everyone is vaccinated I'm sure they'll announce some sort of "new variant" not covered by the vaccine and back into lockdown we go.