QKZXKV wrote: ↑Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:18 am
I'm not as optimistic. I'd say G/S earliest Sept/Oct '22. There's just too much backlog and unknowns with the training.
The impetus for hiring will be higher than anticipated flying levels (carrying on past summer 2022) and imbalanced rosters. The answer to these questions is still months away. Hence there will be no visibility about ‘vacant’ FO spots unless and until there is a January equipment bid.
The company will have no problem carrying extra Capt (RSV CA are useable in the right seat) but need at least enough FO to cover planned flying in each position.
I am hearing that there has been more FO attrition (not returning for recall) than was anticipated, and there are more alternative external opportunities presenting themselves for the experienced junior pilots looking for better pay which may stimulate further resignations.
Hiring in 2022 remains possible but not guaranteed.
link821 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:04 pm
With all of the above considered, 50% chance of ots ground schools for next summer or less?… sorry to always be “that guy” on this forum..
Next summer would be my bet. Interviews and all in the spring for a july or august GS.
Fingers crossed! Thanks for insight.
Beware I do not know more than any other pilots, it's just a armchair quarterback guess haha
link821 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:20 am
Anyone know how many retirements there are in 2022?
in 2022 there are 22 pilots turning 65 and 44 turning 63 (can apply for ERP & a max of 20 ERP awards)
in 2023 there are 41 pilots turning 65 and 51 turning 63
in 2024 there are 44 pilots turning 65 and 55 turning 63
in 2025 there are 51 pilots turning 65 and 52 turning 63
in 2026 there are 56 pilots turning 65 and 38 turning 63
(these numbers may have changed due to the SSP program that was run in 2021) But it's a pretty good ball park of attrition due to max age. Also you can account for a few LTD or early retirements due medical reasons.
link821 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:20 am
Anyone know how many retirements there are in 2022?
in 2022 there are 22 pilots turning 65 and 44 turning 63 (can apply for ERP & a max of 20 ERP awards)
in 2023 there are 41 pilots turning 65 and 51 turning 63
in 2024 there are 44 pilots turning 65 and 55 turning 63
in 2025 there are 51 pilots turning 65 and 52 turning 63
in 2026 there are 56 pilots turning 65 and 38 turning 63
(these numbers may have changed due to the SSP program that was run in 2021) But it's a pretty good ball park of attrition due to max age. Also you can account for a few LTD or early retirements due medical reasons.
Thanks for the info! Maybe with the 20+ retirements next year, the 20+ in the March and April groups will get a chance to interview again.
link821 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:20 am
Anyone know how many retirements there are in 2022?
in 2022 there are 22 pilots turning 65 and 44 turning 63 (can apply for ERP & a max of 20 ERP awards)
in 2023 there are 41 pilots turning 65 and 51 turning 63
in 2024 there are 44 pilots turning 65 and 55 turning 63
in 2025 there are 51 pilots turning 65 and 52 turning 63
in 2026 there are 56 pilots turning 65 and 38 turning 63
(these numbers may have changed due to the SSP program that was run in 2021) But it's a pretty good ball park of attrition due to max age. Also you can account for a few LTD or early retirements due medical reasons.
Those numbers from the Pension Committee are 2 years old. None have been updated for 2020 or 2021 ERP and SSP attrition.
link821 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:20 am
Anyone know how many retirements there are in 2022?
in 2022 there are 22 pilots turning 65 and 44 turning 63 (can apply for ERP & a max of 20 ERP awards)
in 2023 there are 41 pilots turning 65 and 51 turning 63
in 2024 there are 44 pilots turning 65 and 55 turning 63
in 2025 there are 51 pilots turning 65 and 52 turning 63
in 2026 there are 56 pilots turning 65 and 38 turning 63
(these numbers may have changed due to the SSP program that was run in 2021) But it's a pretty good ball park of attrition due to max age. Also you can account for a few LTD or early retirements due medical reasons.
Those numbers from the Pension Committee are 2 years old. None have been updated for 2020 or 2021 ERP and SSP attrition.
Yes I did mention that rudder, it was a ball park exercise to
Give people a “rough idea”