EnerJet 2.0 = Lynx

[fish4life]

The aviation market is becoming exceptionally saturated in this country. Soon we will have:

1. Air Canada / Rouge
2. WestJet / Swoop
3. Porter (order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s with purchase rights for 50 more)
4. Flair (12 737s, with a stated goal to grow to 50 within 5 years)
5. Sunwing (primarily sun destinations, probably less exposed to competition, but with Flair adding Mexico + Caribbean flying, still has to be somewhat concerned about new market entrants)
6. Transat (same as above)
7. Lynx Air (plans to add 46 737s over the next seven years)

I strongly suspect that there is not nearly enough passenger demand in this country to sustain this many airlines in the long term. I predict we will see a bloodbath on fares in the short to medium-term as Swoop / Porter / Flair / Lynx all scramble to undercut one another flying the same low-yield passengers to the same destinations. Air Canada should be relatively insulated from this given their market share and massive route network and will be able to use Rouge selectively to compete on low-yield routes. Likewise, WestJet will use Swoop as a vehicle to fend off the new entrants to the market although how much success they will have in doing so under new ownership remains to be seen.

Sunwing uses a vertically integrated model to sell vacation packages and is probably less concerned with making any money on the flights, as the profit comes from the vacation package in its entirely (predominantly hotels and excursions). I don't see Sunwing actively trying to compete with Flair or Swoop in the sun destinations market as the flights themselves are not the revenue generator for the company as a whole. However, they will have to price their packages in such a way to remain attractive to people who would be willing to take a ULCC-priced flight to Mexico and book an Airbnb there rather than going the all-inclusive route, for example.

My big question marks are Porter, Flair, this new Lynx Air, and to a lesser extent, Transat (shaky financial situation going forward but with the Quebec government likely willing to subsidize the airline to keep it in operation indefinitely). Obviously, this goes without saying, but a disclaimer nonetheless - I don't wish for any airline in this country to fail or for any pilot to be out of a job. But with that being said, I think it's apparent that the ULCC market space in Canada is too small to sustain all these new entrants simultaneously. I strongly suspect that we are due for some consolidation in some form within the next 2-3 years as the aviation market rebounds, what remains to be seen is how exactly that will take place and which airlines will be affected.

Transat isn't the same as Sunwing, Flair, Swoop or Lynx. They have a BIG market to European destinations. None of the others have that or have the capacity to do it. Maybe LONG term if they dont fail before that but we all know that European destinations is in another league. Transat also is kind of vertically integrated.

I'd be concerned if I was AC or WS first since all those ULCC will be flying a lot domestic and US.

Westjet isn’t buying a bunch of 787’s to fly between yyz, yvr and YYC. I’d be shocked if in the next year or 2 anywhere an AT 330 flew isn’t being serviced by a WJ 787 + AC WB. I think AT will shrink into a 100% quebec / yyz airline and that’s probably a good healthy place for them to be since they have the brand loyalty to compete really well in Quebec.
If people were up in arms about AC’s CEO not speaking French they sure as heck won’t be hopping on a bunch of western based airlines (WJ, Swoop, Flair, Lynx etc)

WJ is one of the biggest wildcards in the whole thing, all we know is they didn’t take federal money, does that mean they are well positioned for growth or are they barely surviving and don’t want the feds to keep them cutting routes / shrinking?

The one thing I will agree with is there is going to be too much capacity the next few years and unfortunately even a really well run airline could fail to one with deeper pockets that can outlast them.

[YYJ_Jeff]

Well I hope the CEO speaks French!

LOL She is an Aussie... I doubt she speaks a word of French. Not that it matters IN THE LEAST.

[co-joe]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat. Flair is the stand alone independent coast to coast airline in Canada. I welcome Lynx, lets see how many ULCC's Westjet can unfairly compete with at once. Bring on Porter in the east, and who knows, Georgian 2.0 may make a dent after all.

Interestingly, the day Westjet announced its codeshare with Transat, we saw a Rouge 767 land in YYZ. Hmmm.

[PostmasterGeneral]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat. Flair is the stand alone independent coast to coast airline in Canada. I welcome Lynx, lets see how many ULCC's Westjet can unfairly compete with at once. Bring on Porter in the east, and who knows, Georgian 2.0 may make a dent after all.

Interestingly, the day Westjet announced its codeshare with Transat, we saw a Rouge 767 land in YYZ. Hmmm.

That was just a ferry flight. Plane is off to its new home.

[yhz41]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat. Flair is the stand alone independent coast to coast airline in Canada. I welcome Lynx, lets see how many ULCC's Westjet can unfairly compete with at once. Bring on Porter in the east, and who knows, Georgian 2.0 may make a dent after all.

Interestingly, the day Westjet announced its codeshare with Transat, we saw a Rouge 767 land in YYZ. Hmmm.

There's been one sitting on the ramp in YUL the last 2 days. Didn't think anything of it til you pointed it out just now.

[imjustlurking]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat.

Take a step back for a minute and look at the bigger picture.

WestJet is creating alliances to compete with Air Canada. There is the WJA/WEN core group, WSW, PCO capacity agreement, DAL code share, and now the TSC codeshare.

Sounds like WJ is trying to expand it's network with many lower (to them) risk options before biting the bullet and putting their own metal it.

[Latitude]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat.

Take a step back for a minute and look at the bigger picture.

WestJet is creating alliances to compete with Air Canada. There is the WJA/WEN core group, WSW, PCO capacity agreement, DAL code share, and now the TSC codeshare.

Sounds like WJ is trying to expand it's network with many lower (to them) risk options before biting the bullet and putting their own metal it.

What?

[Latitude]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat. Flair is the stand alone independent coast to coast airline in Canada. I welcome Lynx, lets see how many ULCC's Westjet can unfairly compete with at once. Bring on Porter in the east, and who knows, Georgian 2.0 may make a dent after all.

Interestingly, the day Westjet announced its codeshare with Transat, we saw a Rouge 767 land in YYZ. Hmmm.

Cargo..

[Sharklasers]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat. Flair is the stand alone independent coast to coast airline in Canada. I welcome Lynx, lets see how many ULCC's Westjet can unfairly compete with at once. Bring on Porter in the east, and who knows, Georgian 2.0 may make a dent after all.

Interestingly, the day Westjet announced its codeshare with Transat, we saw a Rouge 767 land in YYZ. Hmmm.

There's been one sitting on the ramp in YUL the last 2 days. Didn't think anything of it til you pointed it out just now.

It’s a fun earmarked for the cargo fleet. They brought it up to do line training for the cargo EIS team because the dedicated freighter is in paint and they want to hit the ground running.

[imjustlurking]

If anything I think the recent announcement of the WS codeshare means we need more competition. Swoop (an airline in an airline) is partnered with Sunwing, Westjet is partnered with Transat.

Take a step back for a minute and look at the bigger picture.

WestJet is creating alliances to compete with Air Canada. There is the WJA/WEN core group, WSW, PCO capacity agreement, DAL code share, and now the TSC codeshare.

Sounds like WJ is trying to expand it's network with many lower (to them) risk options before biting the bullet and putting their own metal it.

What?

It looks like WJ is trying to dip their toes in multiple markets without having to send their own aircraft or hire their own ground crew as a way to see if there is enough demand to eventually fly the routes themselves. I don't see another reason to partner with Air Transat except to gain access to a wider European market.

[Latitude]

Take a step back for a minute and look at the bigger picture.

WestJet is creating alliances to compete with Air Canada. There is the WJA/WEN core group, WSW, PCO capacity agreement, DAL code share, and now the TSC codeshare.

Sounds like WJ is trying to expand it's network with many lower (to them) risk options before biting the bullet and putting their own metal it.

What?

It looks like WJ is trying to dip their toes in multiple markets without having to send their own aircraft or hire their own ground crew as a way to see if there is enough demand to eventually fly the routes themselves. I don't see another reason to partner with Air Transat except to gain access to a wider European market.

Who knows... but I also believe its to gain access to a wider European market, which make sense as Westjet is struggling in that area. They didn't need this agreement to ''see if there is enough demand'' as they have codeshare with Air France that could serve this purpose already. If they want to fly their own metal to all destinations(including from YUL, YQB, YYZ, etc.) they are going to need a MUCH larger long range fleet and sometimes not profitable hence the purpose of codeshares. I dont see why it would be different this time.

Both airlines has been smart enough to partners so they can effectively compete with AC, and of which more codeshare agreements to come for both Westjet and Air Transat. It has been said numerous time lately that airlines standing alone won't survive in the future. Airlines needs alliances and it looks like they both get it

[co-joe]

TS is weird, they just steadfastly refuse to be a player in the domestic market. I've heard that their east west loads are good, the NEO is a perfect machine for it, but their mindset is vacation travel or bust. For them, partnering with somebody with the route network like WS makes sense, but its a deal with the devil. Guaranteed the day WS thinks they can make a buck on that route by themselves, they will. AC is filling A330's on the east west corridor in Canada, why isn't TS going after that?

[final28]

Did anyone apply for a pilot job at Lynx?
If so, did you hear back yet?

[palebird]

"TS is weird, they just steadfastly refuse to be a player in the domestic market. I've heard that their east west loads are good, the NEO is a perfect machine for it, but their mindset is vacation travel or bust. For them, partnering with somebody with the route network like WS makes sense, but its a deal with the devil. Guaranteed the day WS thinks they can make a buck on that route by themselves, they will. AC is filling A330's on the east west corridor in Canada, why isn't TS going after that?"

Because that would be a race to the bottom. Do you know how Transat started? Clapped out 1011's flying out of Mirabel. The owners had fallen out with Obadia at Nationair and went their own way. These guys were all involved with Quebecair which was a big failure. But they picked up the pieces for pennies on the dollar along with experience/contacts and some educated people upstairs. Charter market and sched market are two different animals. They have no interest because there is no payback. These guys were/are sharks and are in it to make money. Obadia made a fortune. So did Transat. Transat had the last laugh when they took over Obadia's 747 hangar in YMX. Then they moved to YUL.Not flying for the sake of flying. The money was in the vacation packages they offered and the charters. That market has significantly changed.

[co-joe]

The aviation market is becoming exceptionally saturated in this country. Soon we will have:

1. Air Canada / Rouge
2. WestJet / Swoop
3. Porter (order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s with purchase rights for 50 more)
4. Flair (12 737s, with a stated goal to grow to 50 within 5 years)
5. Sunwing (primarily sun destinations, probably less exposed to competition, but with Flair adding Mexico + Caribbean flying, still has to be somewhat concerned about new market entrants)
6. Transat (same as above)
7. Lynx Air (plans to add 46 737s over the next seven years)

I strongly suspect that there is not nearly enough passenger demand in this country to sustain this many airlines in the long term....

You guys who suggest there is capacity saturation in the Canadian market always seem to think that every Canadian is already using air travel. I meet people all the time who've never travelled by air in their lives, and they always site cost as the main factor. The ULCC model is attracting people who were financially incapable of travelling by air previously, no amount of slick advertising was ever going to put their bums in seats, but ULCC fares are and will.

Flair, Lynx, Swoop, Jetlines, maybe even Porter are the companies who will grow the aviation sector in Canada moving forward. Sure, some price conscious Canadians will use ULCCs instead of the legacy carriers, but some ULCC pax will decide to spend more as their means increase, so the idea that ULCCs are just taking pax from the major carriers and not actually increasing the size of the market as a whole is a fallacy.

[flying4dollars]

The aviation market is becoming exceptionally saturated in this country. Soon we will have:

1. Air Canada / Rouge
2. WestJet / Swoop
3. Porter (order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s with purchase rights for 50 more)
4. Flair (12 737s, with a stated goal to grow to 50 within 5 years)
5. Sunwing (primarily sun destinations, probably less exposed to competition, but with Flair adding Mexico + Caribbean flying, still has to be somewhat concerned about new market entrants)
6. Transat (same as above)
7. Lynx Air (plans to add 46 737s over the next seven years)

I strongly suspect that there is not nearly enough passenger demand in this country to sustain this many airlines in the long term....

You guys who suggest there is capacity saturation in the Canadian market always seem to think that every Canadian is already using air travel. I meet people all the time who've never travelled by air in their lives, and they always site cost as the main factor. The ULCC model is attracting people who were financially incapable of travelling by air previously, no amount of slick advertising was ever going to put their bums in seats, but ULCC fares are and will.

Flair, Lynx, Swoop, Jetlines, maybe even Porter are the companies who will grow the aviation sector in Canada moving forward. Sure, some price conscious Canadians will use ULCCs instead of the legacy carriers, but some ULCC pax will decide to spend more as their means increase, so the idea that ULCCs are just taking pax from the major carriers and not actually increasing the size of the market as a whole is a fallacy.

Bingo!

I hear all the time passengers who say they have only really taken advantage of air travel because of the fares of Flair and Swoop.

[JBI]

When you look at stats from the US, which has some but not complete relevance to Canada, the only economic demographic to NOT significantly increase the amount they travel by air over the last few years were the high income earners over $150,000/year. Every lower economic bracket increased the amount they travel. Like them or not, ULCCs in the US like Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant are indeed putting more bums in seats. Anecdotally I've also heard the same in Canada, folks who wouldn't have travelled decide to take Flair or Swoop instead of driving.

Now, as the many nay-sayers will outline, there are a number of factors that make it harder for ULCCs to do well in Canada.
1- Our ridiculously high taxes, fees and AIFs (in the US it's federally legislated that the highest AIF an Airport can charge is $5 - the fact that some airports will charge as much as $42 plus landing fees is criminal)
2- The distances between large centres - in the eastern US you can hit over a dozen large cities within an hour and a half flight. Our cities are smaller and way more spaced out.
3- For transborder routes, even if Canadian ULCCs can compete with WJ and AC on domestic routes, for the folks living near the border, it would be very hard not to lose the super price conscious pax going to the states who will choose to fly out of Bellingham, Grand Forks, Buffalo, Niagara or Plattsburgh. A quick drive across the border and you save AIFs, Nav Canada fees, sales tax AND the US imposed ~$30 Homeland security tax.

For what it's worth, my two cents is that some but not all of the new ULCCs in Canada will survive. Which ones? Not sure.

[Cavalier44]

The aviation market is becoming exceptionally saturated in this country. Soon we will have:

1. Air Canada / Rouge
2. WestJet / Swoop
3. Porter (order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s with purchase rights for 50 more)
4. Flair (12 737s, with a stated goal to grow to 50 within 5 years)
5. Sunwing (primarily sun destinations, probably less exposed to competition, but with Flair adding Mexico + Caribbean flying, still has to be somewhat concerned about new market entrants)
6. Transat (same as above)
7. Lynx Air (plans to add 46 737s over the next seven years)

I strongly suspect that there is not nearly enough passenger demand in this country to sustain this many airlines in the long term....

You guys who suggest there is capacity saturation in the Canadian market always seem to think that every Canadian is already using air travel. I meet people all the time who've never travelled by air in their lives, and they always site cost as the main factor. The ULCC model is attracting people who were financially incapable of travelling by air previously, no amount of slick advertising was ever going to put their bums in seats, but ULCC fares are and will.

Flair, Lynx, Swoop, Jetlines, maybe even Porter are the companies who will grow the aviation sector in Canada moving forward. Sure, some price conscious Canadians will use ULCCs instead of the legacy carriers, but some ULCC pax will decide to spend more as their means increase, so the idea that ULCCs are just taking pax from the major carriers and not actually increasing the size of the market as a whole is a fallacy.

I never said that all Canadians were already using air travel, or that these new ULCC market entrants weren’t attracting new travellers who were previously unable to fly due to financial considerations. For what it’s worth, I agree with most of what you’re saying, but then again you aren’t arguing the point that I made.

What I’m saying is that there is going to be an over-abundance of capacity with all these new ULCC market entrants. There will always be a segment of the aviation market that will be attracted to the lower fares, but enough to sustain half a dozen airlines? Flair, Swoop, Porter, Lynx, Enerjet (?), JetLines (?), etc. This is why all these new airlines are racing to add as many new tails as they can, as fast as they can. Whichever player is the quickest to establish market dominance will effectively be able to deploy its aircraft on every new route that its competitor announces, subsidizing losses on ultra-discounted fares with profits made elsewhere in their network. It will be a bloodbath on fares until only one or two players remain standing.

WestJet is already doing this by deploying Swoop on many Flair routes; we will see who has the deeper pockets and is willing to sustain greater losses to achieve market dominance - either Onex or 777 Partners. Look for Air Canada to do the same with Rouge against every Porter route that they announce out of YYZ. Bought-and-paid-for A321s with 200 seats going up against brand new ~132 seat E195s with expensive leases - a CASM dream for Air Canada and Porter’s worst nightmare.

In the end I suspect we will see one or two survivors in the ULCC market segment, these will be major players with +50 tails, basically a replica of what WestJet was in the early 2000s although based on a ULCC cost/fare structure. Everyone else will be merged/bankrupt. Time will tell who survives and who does not, but I wouldn’t gamble my career by hitching it to the ULCC “horse” at this point in time.