Impact of rising fuel prices on Aviation's recovery

[McKinley]

It’s no secret that fuel prices are going stratospheric…

I’m worried about the fragile state of the industry now coupled with current world events/ pandemic and the entry of ULCC’s in the mix.

How is everyone feeling about this?

[digits_]

If Ukraine keeps dragging on, the industry will implode again.

I'm happy I'm not an airline owner. Pretty hard decisions to make. Training crews for a surge in post covid travel, or saving money for a potential crash if the Ukraine situation explodes. Hard to say.

[Launchpad1]

If Ukraine keeps dragging on, the industry will implode again.

Interesting. Why do you think so? Because of the increase in fuel prices I'm guessing.

I'm not saying you're wrong.

[digits_]

If Ukraine keeps dragging on, the industry will implode again.

Interesting. Why do you think so? Because of the increase in fuel prices I'm guessing.

I'm not saying you're wrong.

Not only because of the fuel prices. If this keeps dragging on, it will fester. More sanctions going in both directions. More threats. Possibly more military action. More reaction from governments, over-reactions from other governments, restrictions for 'safety' reasons, people less willing to travel.

A bit similar to post 9-11. The immediate threat might have been gone (initial Russian invasion - initial attack), but the consequences (actual or perceived) screwed up the economy and industry for a long time.

[McKinley]

If Ukraine keeps dragging on, the industry will implode again.

Interesting. Why do you think so? Because of the increase in fuel prices I'm guessing.

I'm not saying you're wrong.

Not only because of the fuel prices. If this keeps dragging on, it will fester. More sanctions going in both directions. More threats. Possibly more military action. More reaction from governments, over-reactions from other governments, restrictions for 'safety' reasons, people less willing to travel.

A bit similar to post 9-11. The immediate threat might have been gone (initial Russian invasion - initial attack), but the consequences (actual or perceived) screwed up the economy and industry for a long time.

There’s several ways to kill the industry :

-pandemic/ government overreaction ( check)
-terrorist attack - ( no but there is a war)
-rising fuel prices ( check) -> Trudeau is raising the tax April 1st.
-Inflation ( check)
-economic difficulties ( check)

Did I miss anything ?
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[flying4dollars]

In terms of fuel prices, well many larger airlines hedge their fuel, so they'd be ok for however long their hedges last, but the general economic state is anyones guess. Right now travel demand is on the rise as we vacate the pandemic era.

[McKinley]

In terms of fuel prices, well many larger airlines hedge their fuel, so they'd be ok for however long their hedges last, but the general economic state is anyones guess. Right now travel demand is on the rise as we vacate the pandemic era.

I wondered about that as well.

I’d imagine it’ll impact consumers by them having less income for discretionary spending…

I’d imagine the carbon tax increases will impact aviation

[flying4dollars]

In terms of fuel prices, well many larger airlines hedge their fuel, so they'd be ok for however long their hedges last, but the general economic state is anyones guess. Right now travel demand is on the rise as we vacate the pandemic era.

I wondered about that as well.

I’d imagine it’ll impact consumers by them having less income for discretionary spending…

I’d imagine the carbon tax increases will impact aviation

That will be the interesting factor. I know people in BC are lobbying to freeze the carbon tax to offset the gas prices.


I assume there's a carbon tax on aviation fuel, but I wonder if the govt would ever consider a freeze on that nationally to offset the sky rocketing prices. (.....don't flame me for that one, it was tongue in cheek)

[McKinley]

In terms of fuel prices, well many larger airlines hedge their fuel, so they'd be ok for however long their hedges last, but the general economic state is anyones guess. Right now travel demand is on the rise as we vacate the pandemic era.

I wondered about that as well.

I’d imagine it’ll impact consumers by them having less income for discretionary spending…

I’d imagine the carbon tax increases will impact aviation

That will be the interesting factor. I know people in BC are lobbying to freeze the carbon tax to offset the gas prices.


I assume there's a carbon tax on aviation fuel, but I wonder if the govt would ever consider a freeze on that nationally to offset the sky rocketing prices. (.....don't flame me for that one, it was tongue in cheek)

No urge to flame! Lol. I can’t see Trudeau backing off on carbon tax for aviation fuel. ( I could be very wrong). His goal is to transition from Fossil fuels ASAP…and throw caution to the wind when it comes to economic/ social carnage. It’s rules for thee and not for me.

If you know something I don’t, I’m all ears !

Also, I think of the price of aviation parts, GSE, airport maintenance, de-icing, GSE parts, and all of the other inputs into a flight .. when I look at that all I can think is “ oh shit.”


I hope I’m out to lunch …and overreacting.

[WellThatAgedWell]

Well this is all great news! High gas prices and we will use bicycles to get around! Save the planet! Why is anyone complaining about the high prices, this is what the carbon taxes were designed to do anyways.

You will own nothing and you will be happy!

[McKinley]

Well this is all great news! High gas prices and we will use bicycles to get around! Save the planet! Why is anyone complaining about the high prices, this is what the carbon taxes were designed to do anyways.

You will own nothing and you will be happy!

And we’ll all need to prepare for an angrier world….

[Spaceshuttle]

Well this is all great news! High gas prices and we will use bicycles to get around! Save the planet! Why is anyone complaining about the high prices, this is what the carbon taxes were designed to do anyways.

You will own nothing and you will be happy!

And we’ll all need to prepare for an angrier world….

“The carbon tax is revenue neutral!!” I got some land to sell too...

Wait “the budget will balance itself”, so many gems of wisdom hard to pick...